Target %: How will 2021 compare to 2020?

[AvengerRam]

In 2020, here is the breakdown of targets and target % by receiver and position:

Robert Woods 129 (23.0%)
Cooper Kupp 124 (22.1%)
Josh Reynolds 81 (14.4%)
Van Jefferson 31 (5.5%)
Wide Receivers 365 (65.0% )

Gerald Everett 62 (11.0%)
Tyler Higbee 60 (10.7%)
Johnny Mundt 4 (0.7%)
Tight Ends 126 (22.4%)

Malcolm Brown 33 (5.9%)
Darrell Henderson 24 (4.3%)
Cam Akers 14 (2.5%)
Running Backs 71 (12.6%)

How will 2021 break down?

I expect a few differences.

1. While Woods and Kupp will likely be the most targeted receivers, I suspect that their percentages will go down. Van Jefferson could/should get as many targets as Reynolds did last year, and DeTu Jackwell will likely get more targets than Jefferson did last year.

2. At TE, I think Higbee will get the same amount of targets, perhaps slightly more. The rest of the group, though, will probably get limited opportunities.

3. I think we'll see an increase of RB targets, with Akers getting the biggest jump. I'd be he'll get more than Brown had last year (maybe around 3/game).

How do you see the ball being distributed this year?

 

[nighttrain]

same as you
train

 

[Allen2McVay]

In 2020, here is the breakdown of targets and target % by receiver and position:

Robert Woods 129 (23.0%)
Cooper Kupp 124 (22.1%)
Josh Reynolds 81 (14.4%)
Van Jefferson 31 (5.5%)
Wide Receivers 365 (65.0% )

Gerald Everett 62 (11.0%)
Tyler Higbee 60 (10.7%)
Johnny Mundt 4 (0.7%)
Tight Ends 126 (22.4%)

Malcolm Brown 33 (5.9%)
Darrell Henderson 24 (4.3%)
Cam Akers 14 (2.5%)
Running Backs 71 (12.6%)

Is it possible that you have too much time on your hands?

 

[AvengerRam]

Is it possible that you have too much time on your hands?

I still manage to find the time to be a genius billionaire playboy philanthropist.

 

[Allen2McVay]

I still manage to find the time to be a genius billionaire playboy philanthropist.

You go boy!

 

[Loyal]

Not much except we won a Wild Card round in 2020, and we win Super Bowl in our own house in 2021....

 

[thirteen28]

DeTu Jackwell

+1

 

[CGI_Ram]

I’d love to see an increase in TE targets. That would speak positively to OL play and would speak to someone like Harris surprising us. But, my wager would be more aligned with you @AvengerRam.

I expect RB (Akers) targets to increase too. Akers didn’t get rolling until late last year. A full year makes a difference.

WR… I’d really be guessing... I am just not sure how those 3rd WR snaps get diced up. I have a hunch Atwell grabs more snaps than we think. But, let’s see how he emerges from preseason.

 

[TK42-RAM]

Woods and Kupp to get their 20-25%

Stafford doesn't mind using the TE so Higbee to be the beneficiary and will get an increase in production - 15-20%

 

[dieterbrock]

Stafford is so good, the targets will be up to 200%!!

Personnel dictates decisions for sure, for instance there's a concept that Stafford likes to throw to his TE.
Folks may be surprised to see that Goff targeted TE more in the last 2 years than Stafford, 24% to 22%
Where Stafford on the RB side was at 19% to Goff only throwing to RBs 11%
Over the last 8 years Stafford threw to TE 17% and RB 23%
Over Goff's 4 years with McV, threw to TE 20% and RB 15%
Again though, the personnel has a lot to do with it as when Stafford first came in to the league he had Pettigrew and Sheffler to throw to and TE targets were at 28% even with Calvin Johnson on the field.
I love the idea of having a QB hitting the RB in stride, how deadly that can be

 

[Rams43]

Interesting question, Avenger,

So many variables. For example, if Rams are enjoying leads in the 4th quarter as I kinda expect, McVay will probably call off the dogs and emphasize clock burning running plays.

But I’ll say this.

Woods and Kupp will get the lions share of targets but their numbers will probably go down some.

DJ is gonna get his targets, especially if they prove effective in terms of yardage and/or points as long as he remains healthy. That was the very reason he was signed in the first place.

Atwell will be phased in for sure. If he makes plays then he will get more and more targets from Stafford. Again, that was the reason he was drafted.

Finally, I predict that Stafford will target TE’s more than Goff ever did. And Higbee and this new Harris kid could be devastating catching passes from Stafford in jump ball contested situations.

So, Stafford might put on an aerial circus early on in games where everybody feasts and then Akers/Hendy will pound the opponent on the ground.

 

[NJRamsFan]

I’m still banking on Van to surprise people this year

 

[FarNorth]

In 2020, here is the breakdown of targets and target % by receiver and position:

Robert Woods 129 (23.0%)
Cooper Kupp 124 (22.1%)
Josh Reynolds 81 (14.4%)
Van Jefferson 31 (5.5%)
Wide Receivers 365 (65.0% )

Gerald Everett 62 (11.0%)
Tyler Higbee 60 (10.7%)
Johnny Mundt 4 (0.7%)
Tight Ends 126 (22.4%)

Malcolm Brown 33 (5.9%)
Darrell Henderson 24 (4.3%)
Cam Akers 14 (2.5%)
Running Backs 71 (12.6%)

How will 2021 break down?

I expect a few differences.

1. While Woods and Kupp will likely be the most targeted receivers, I suspect that their percentages will go down. Van Jefferson could/should get as many targets as Reynolds did last year, and DeTu Jackwell will likely get more targets than Jefferson did last year.

2. At TE, I think Higbee will get the same amount of targets, perhaps slightly more. The rest of the group, though, will probably get limited opportunities.

3. I think we'll see an increase of RB targets, with Akers getting the biggest jump. I'd be he'll get more than Brown had last year (maybe around 3/game).

How do you see the ball being distributed this year?

This question leads straight into the retooling needed for our offense to create the explosive plays and scoring McVay envisions.

The biggest issue imo is who will fill the 24.4% gap of throws which went to Reynolds and Everett. Those guys had their moments but imo were never consistently reliable on important downs nor were they the big playmakers we might have hoped. Those 25% of throws now need to go to other guys who really can make plays-- DeTutu, Akers/Henderson, tight ends including ones not named Higbee. We'll see if these guys can step up.

Put differently, we can't just put more throws into the possession game as previously exemplified by Kupp/Woods/Jefferson and inconsistently by Reynolds. That's last year's offense, not the explosives McVay has in mind. The ball has to go somewhere else and find other playmakers.

In particular, the speed guys going deep or crossing underneath or out of the backfield in sweeps etc., and Akers/Henderson as a consistent, significant relief valve for Stafford. This of course could also include Kupp/Woods/Jefferson on deeper, if not necessarily more, passes if we can stretch the field as McVay intends.

 

[snackdaddy]

Like most here, I expect Woods and Kupp to get the majority of targets. I think Higbee's will increase from last year. I'm sure Jefferson's will. With Jackson it depends on his health. With Tutu it depends on how fast he acclimates himself to the difference between college and pros. I think we'll see more of Akers in the pass game as he continues to improve his overall game. I'd like to see Henderson with the ball in space but so far it seems he can't earn enough snaps.

 

[Ram65]

Robert Woods 129 (23.0%)
Cooper Kupp 124 (22.1%)
Josh Reynolds 81 (14.4%)
Van Jefferson 31 (5.5%)
Wide Receivers 365 (65.0% )

Gerald Everett 62 (11.0%)
Tyler Higbee 60 (10.7%)
Johnny Mundt 4 (0.7%)
Tight Ends 126 (22.4%)

Malcolm Brown 33 (5.9%)
Darrell Henderson 24 (4.3%)
Cam Akers 14 (2.5%)
Running Backs 71 (12.6%)

How will 2021 break down?

Great to see this breakdown.

I'm with the majority that Akers sees more passing attempts. would like to see Henderson get more passing targets. All he needs is a small crease for big gains.

Personnel dictates decisions for sure, for instance there's a concept that Stafford likes to throw to his TE.
Folks may be surprised to see that Goff targeted TE more in the last 2 years than Stafford, 24% to 22%
Where Stafford on the RB side was at 19% to Goff only throwing to RBs 11%
Over the last 8 years Stafford threw to TE 17% and RB 23%
Over Goff's 4 years with McV, threw to TE 20% and RB 15%
Again though, the personnel has a lot to do with it as when Stafford first came in to the league he had Pettigrew and Sheffler to throw to and TE targets were at 28% even with Calvin Johnson on the field.
I love the idea of having a QB hitting the RB in stride, how deadly that can be

Very interesting breakdown too. Makes me wonder who Stafford will be comfortable with the most. I think Stafford can take advantage of Higbee and Hopkins down the middle of the field. For whatever reason, the Rams didn't take advantage of the middle of the TEs last year. The added speed of Jackson and TuTu should open the middle of the field even more. The percentages change a little with a shift to more RB from TE targets. Just a guess. I see Kupp and Woods getting a little less percentage to keep them fresh with Jefferson, Jackson, and TuTu getting a little more than the Reynolds/Jefferson duo last year.

My big question is how much will McVay go with four WR sets?

Somehow I think getting Jackson and TuTu on the field with Woods and Kupp could be unstoppable with decent protection. No slight to Jefferson. Being able to rotate these five WRs can keep everyone fresh. I think we will see YPC up this year all around.

Woods
Kupp
Jackson
TuTu/Jefferson


2021
Wide Receivers (65.0% )
Tight Ends (22.4%)
Running Backs (12.6%)

2022
Wide Receivers (64.5.% )
Tight Ends (19.4%)
Running Backs (16..1%)

 

[dieterbrock]

The biggest issue imo is who will fill the 24.4% gap of throws which went to Reynolds and Everett.

Kind of an addition by subtraction thing IMO, considering those 2 consistently had the lowest catch rate%, Reynolds at 56% for his career & Everett 62% (Higbee 72% in the McVay ERA)

 

[CoachAllred]

I suspect that their percentages will go down.

I do too, but I'm not it's for the same reason as yours, but maybe so.
I guessing it will drop because the target yds per attempt will be a bit higher, with Stafford.
More balance in stretching the field vertical and horizontal.

 

[Merlin]

I figure dependency on Woody and Kupp will dip a lot. Their % numbers are gonna go down.

Jefferson's will climb. DJax will eat some of that too. TuTu will be involved a little too.

TE targets will increase a little more. I think the big guys are gonna be a part of this passing volume increase.

RB targets will probably increase the most. Akers needs to get more involved he will hurt teams.

 

[Neil039]

Akers, Henderson and Jefferson will all increase in my opinion. Gurley was McVays best opinion when he spread the field. I believe the offense will resemble more of the 2018. Big plays from the back field, opening up the deep pass.