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The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are the favorites to make Super Bowl XLVIII. Each team lost three games this season, won its conference and earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But how much does that No. 1 seed even mean anymore?
Playoff Win Percentage by Seed
Seed1990-20042005-2012
No. 1.686.483
No. 2.609.500
No. 3.474.464
No. 4.525.576
No. 5.268.423
No. 6.231.533
When the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005 as the sixth seed in the AFC, a trend started in the NFL. The first 15 seasons of the 12-team NFL playoffs were dominated by the top two seeds in each conference, with those teams winning 13 of 15 Super Bowls, and accounting for 25 of the 30 Super Bowl appearances. Since then, a one or two seed has accounted for nine of 16 appearances with only two wins (2008 Steelers, 2009 Saints).
The wide-open nature of the playoffs -- and the NFL in general -- these days could see any team making a deep postseason run. However, some teams are more likely to do so than others, and a look into the numbers can give us an idea of who is primed to make such a run.
One of the key measures used here to determine this was expected points added (EPA). This is a measure of impact of every play on each team's potential points. When aggregated over the course of a game or season, EPA numbers show how much each unit (offense, defense, special teams) contributed to the team's final point margin.
The NFC
EPA For NFC Playoff Teams This Season
SeedTeamOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsTotal
No. 1Seattle Seahawks54.0115.315.5184.7
No. 2Carolina Panthers55.869.6-5.0120.3
No. 3Philadelphia Eagles114.7-14.1-36.963.7
No. 4Green Bay Packers71.6-95.311.9-11.8
No. 5San Francisco 49ers44.763.131.6139.5
No. 6New Orleans Saints131.54.7-26.9109.3
The 49ers proved to be one of the most efficient teams in all three facets of the game this season, which makes them one on of the top choices to take down the Seahawks or Panthers. The 49ers' 139.5 overall EPA was third in the NFL this season, and was actually better than the 49ers' total from last season (122.0) when San Francisco made the Super Bowl.
The 49ers' offense rated as the worst of the NFC playoff teams, but the return of Michael Crabtree in Week 13 has had a big impact on the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick. Of the 49ers' 44.7 offensive expected points added this season, 28.7 came after Crabtree's return. Kaepernick completed 61.7 percent of his passes with Crabtree active this season, compared to 56.7 percent with him inactive.
The return of Crabtree wasn't the only wrinkle for an NFC playoff team this season, however.
Aside from the 49ers, there are several factors that point to the Eagles being the most dangerous team playing on wild card weekend. The Eagles went 7-1 over the last eight games of the season, committed a league-low five turnovers, and produced a 101.7 EPA on offense in that span. The Eagles' defense isn't as strong as the 49ers', Seahawks' or Panthers', but Nick Foles' efficiency, coupled with the NFL's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, make Philadelphia a top contender, regardless of seed.
The Packers and Saints also feature potent offenses, but each team has an Achilles' heel that should prevent a deep run.
Super Bowl Projections for NFC
SeedTeamChances
No. 1Seattle Seahawks23.7%
No. 2Carolina Panthers12.3%
No. 3Philadelphia Eagles2.0%
No. 4Green Bay Packers0.8%
No. 5San Francisco 49ers4.6%
No. 6New Orleans Saints3.4%
Source: numberFire
Aaron Rodgers' return makes the Packers' offense one of the best in the NFL, but the defense struggled with or without him. In Week 1 against the 49ers -- Green Bay's first playoff opponent -- Kaepernick threw for 412 yards, even without Crabtree.
As for the Saints, the team would have to win three road games to make the Super Bowl, and no matter what metric is looked at, the Saints aren't the same outside of New Orleans. Keeping with the EPA theme, the team has produced 142.1 expected points added at home, and minus-32.8 on the road.
The projections from numberFire.com agree with EPA, showing the 49ers as the low seed with the best chance to make the Super Bowl from the NFC.
The AFC
EPA For AFC Playoff Teams This Season
SeedTeamOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsTotal
No. 1Denver Broncos237.3-22.1-9.6205.6
No. 2New England Patriots74.6-8.038.6105.2
No. 3Cincinnati Bengals36.488.4-1.1123.7
No. 4Indianapolis Colts83.0-26.3-1.155.6
No. 5Kansas City Chiefs31.146.145.8123.0
No. 6San Diego Chargers149.6-95.9-4.549.3
The Broncos were the best team in terms of EPA this season, bolstered by an offense that was outperformed by only the 2007 Patriots (242.7 EPA) since the start of 2001.
However, the best way to slow an offense is with tough defense, and the Bengals have one of the best in the NFL. The Bengals' defense rated behind only the Seahawks' in EPA this season. The Bengals forced 31 turnovers (tied for third), allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt (second) and 4.7 yards per play (second). For Cincinnati to compete with the top teams, though, Andy Dalton will need to improve his play.
Dalton is 0-2 with no touchdown passes and four interceptions in his postseason career. His 19.8 QBR in the playoffs is worst of any quarterback with multiple starts since 2006.
There are signs that this season could be different. Dalton's 55.8 QBR was the best of his career, and the Bengals produced a higher EPA on offense than Dalton's previous two seasons combined (minus-16.5). Dalton's credentials also match those of Eli Manning in 2007, who also had turnover problems and who had also lost his first two postseason starts before leading the Giants to a Super Bowl victory.
The Chiefs finished just behind the Bengals in EPA this season, but Kansas City went 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record (beating a Michael Vick-led Eagles) and lost five of its last seven games as the competition improved. The Chiefs' defense posted a 98.3 defensive EPA in the first nine games of the season before rolling off a minus-52.9 rating the last seven games. Those struggles against good teams could prove too much to overcome for Kansas City.
Super Bowl Projections for AFC
SeedTeamChances
No. 1Denver Broncos34.4%
No. 2New England Patriots7.8%
No. 3Cincinnati Bengals2.9%
No. 4Indianapolis Colts2.4%
No. 5Kansas City Chiefs4.6%
No. 6San Diego Chargers0.9%
Source: numberFire
The real wild cards here are the Chargers and Colts. The Chargers had a tendency to play up or down to the level of their opponents this season, going 5-2 against teams that finished with winning records and 4-5 against teams .500 or worse, including losses to the 2-14 Texans and 3-13 Redskins. This is largely due to being a team that rates second in offensive EPA and 27th in defensive EPA.
The Colts are in a similar boat, beating the Broncos and the Seahawks this season, but that was back when Reggie Wayne was healthy and active. Since losing Wayne, the Colts have been blown out several times, and needed late-game heroics to defeat the Texans and Titans. The Colts finished with a 55.6 EPA overall, which is third worst among the playoff teams.
The projections from numberFire.com actually favor the Chiefs despite the late-season struggles. The Bengals project just slightly better than the Colts, but if Dalton improves, they could prove to be the most well-rounded AFC team.
