St. Louis a long term contender to Seattle

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CGI_Ram

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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/in...s-long-term-nfl-west-contender-2015-nfl-draft

The team with the most victories in the NFL over the past three seasons -- Seattle, with 42 -- is not about to crash; few teams are as stable or capable in terms of ownership, management, coaching, personnel and playing philosophy. That's why it came as a surprise to me earlier this offseason when an NFL personnel evaluator suggested over lunch that his roster model gave the St. Louis Rams a slight edge over Seattle in terms of overall depth.

"Better depth does not necessarily translate to more wins, because the quarterback can make such a difference," this evaluator said. "But what was clear by the end of last season was how Seattle's depth was falling off, and it cost them in the Super Bowl."

I didn't buy his thinking entirely -- after all, the Seahawks were 1 yard away from winning the Super Bowl -- but our conversation came to mind Thursday night when the Rams added Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in the draft.

The consensus that running backs have been devalued can obscure the fact that game-changing ones remain of great value, especially for teams without prolific passing attacks. Gurley, by all accounts, has that kind of game-changing ability. It's one reason St. Louis could pose the biggest threat to Seattle in the NFC West, especially long term.

Quarterback, defense and running game are three variables teams know they must manage in putting together a winning formula. There is no antidote for horrendous quarterback play. Since 2010, the 16 teams in the 10th percentile or worse for single-season Total QBR averaged 4.2 victories, with only one reaching 8-8. But if quarterback play merely lags below average, a team can still contend for double-digit victories with the right mix of defense and ground game. The Rams are in better position to do that with an elite runner on their roster.

Ten teams over the past five seasons finished 10-6 or better despite below-average quarterback play, measured by single-season Total QBR scores beneath the 50th percentile for that period. Seven of these 10 quarterback-deficient teams were exceptional on defense, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in defensive expected points added. The other three ranked in the 64th, 81st and 99th percentiles for how frequently they ran the ball, one way to minimize their below-average quarterbacks. The one team of the 10 that was especially poor on defense -- Minnesota in 2012 -- possessed a game-changing back in Adrian Peterson.

The Rams are loaded on defense, particularly in their front seven. They improved from 28th in defensive EPA through seven games last season to third over their final nine. Coaches who studied the Rams thought the defense improved as coordinator Gregg Williams found better ways to utilize his personnel, de-emphasizing exotic concepts. There should be no seven-game adjustment period this coming season.

It's not yet clear how much the Rams have upgraded their quarterback situation, though. Newcomer Nick Foles was better for Philadelphia last season (62.2 QBR score) than any qualifying Rams quarterback has been in the nine-year history of the metric (Marc Bulger was at 57.3 in 2006).

"I do not see them anywhere near Seattle because of the quarterback," a veteran defensive coach said, "but if you are middling at quarterback or developing one, you do need that top-10 defense and running game to win. Beating Seattle is easier said than done, but the goal can be to get to nine wins."

A shaky offensive line in St. Louis could work against Foles, but that is where Gurley's addition can help the most. Peterson and Seattle's Marshawn Lynchhave proved that the very best backs can produce without effective blocking. Those two rank first and third, respectively, in yards per rush after contact over the past three seasons (minimum 500 carries, with Eddie Lacy ranking second). Gurley led qualifying Power 5 backs in that category last season, gaining 3.9 yards per rush after contact. For his career, Gurley gained 1,500 of his 3,285 yards after contact, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Rams do not plan to rush Gurley back from the torn ACL he suffered in mid-November, and it's conceivable he could even open the season on the physically unable to perform list. Seattle, meanwhile, should get a boost from tight end Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks also entered Day 2 of the draft with 11 remaining selections, most in the league. Their depth should improve further when Cassius Marsh, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Paul Richardson return from injuries.

Projecting too far into the future can be futile, but when 2016 rolls around, Seattle will be paying top dollar for quarterback Russell Wilson, hurting its financial flexibility. Lynch, who has operated on a year-to-year basis of late, will be 30 years old. Gurley and the Rams' defense should be peaking at that time, taking pressure off the quarterback.

"St. Louis has been a nine- or 10-win team that has struggled to win eight because of quarterback instability," the evaluator said. "Their offensive line is their big weakness, but that is an issue for Seattle as well. The Rams' defensive line is arguably the best in the league. I might like Seattle's linebackers better, but depth-wise, it is more of a push. Not everyone likes the Rams' safeties, but I do. Seattle is obviously better in the secondary.

"On offense, I like the Rams' receivers and think they are slightly underrated. If you were to compare their receiving corps with Seattle's, I don't know [whose is better]. Foles coming over was big because [Sam] Bradford was such an unknown, but quarterback and running back have been the big advantage for Seattle."

Wilson's presence alone gives Seattle an edge that could be enduring, but four of his nine worst games from a QBR standpoint were against St. Louis, including in Week 17 last season. The Rams led that game 6-0 at halftime, but they averaged 2.2 yards per carry and lost 20-6 after Shaun Hill threw a pick-six interception in the fourth quarter.

Gurley doesn't fix everything overnight for the Rams, but he does add a potentially significant component to a roster that ranks among the NFL's youngest and most intriguing.
 

Mackeyser

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Data is important.

Yards after contact is huge. And Gurley is EXCEPTIONAL in that regard. So much better than anyone in a long time and in line with Lynch and AP. Moreover, neither Lynch nor AP have exceptional OLs. Seattle won a Super Bowl and AP ran for 2k yards and got them to the playoffs. And those Vikes didn't have near the D that we have.

We know now that we started slow because our O wasn't in sync due to having to play the backup, then having to play the 3rd stringer while the D was struggling with the complexities of implementing the Williams D.

This year, we have a healthy starting QB, we'll have a healthy OL that won't be geriatric and can actually run block and we'll have at least Tre Mason and Bennie Cunningham (if not Zac Stacy... we'll see) to start the season against Seattle as we run the ball down their freakin' throats. Couple that with our DL that now includes Nick Fairley in the rotation and we've got a DL ready to go on a feeding frenzy. We've got the best LB corps we've had in a long time with the addition of Ayers and the maturation of 'Tree and our secondary is finally coming into its own (still banging the table for Christian Bryant).

Now that it looks like we have the people to get the hard first downs (and yes, I still think we resign Barks), I think all the units get better. We grind out more yards, we keep the defense better. We might even play with a lead or two and LORD help those teams who have to face our DL in passing situations... /shudder...

All because our guys recognized that yards after contact was critical and got a guy that was a difference maker in that regard.

Seattle is going to screw that up, btw. Lynch will either retire after this year or will leave when Wilson gets his big payday. Watch. And they'll think they can platoon with their other back who also does okay for them in relief here and there. But he's not Lynch. It's different week in and week out... as we found out with Daryl Richardson.

This is an ascending team and I really think we're going to look back on these past few drafts with much fondness. Even if we hated the picks at the time. And I know how that feels. I mean, I HATED the Chris Long pick at the time... and he's one of my favorite Rams.
 

RAGRam

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We know now that we started slow because our O wasn't in sync due to having to play the backup, then having to play the 3rd stringer while the D was struggling with the complexities of implementing the Williams D.

We actually started fairly decently on O, take out the Vikings game which was a complete mess, and we averaged 21.8 offensive points per game (taking out defensive scores and The Mountaineer play), which would have been good for 15th over the entire season (considering we had a QB who was dropped a few games later not awful) then the Chiefs game happened, Jake Long goes down, and Scott Wells picks up an injury, and all of a sudden you're playing the NFC West (our next 2 games being against the 49ers and Cardinals) with Joseph and Wells on your OL, at which point you're fucked offensively.
 

Mackeyser

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All the more reason I really like this draft. Gurley is a difference maker for all the right reasons.

Havenstein is the RT for this O. He doesn't hold, he mauls people and he doesn't give up sacks.

Brown will be the right RG for this O. He's quick in tight spaces, won't get beat on stunts, he really mauls people and he's got a good anchor for pass pro.

Foles and Keenum are the right QBs for this offense and Mannion will be developed well this year. I don't expect him to play at all, but I expect him to learn a ton and fight Keenum like hell for the backup job next year and likely win it.

This draft is going exactly as it should. Now, if our OL can be settled early and they don't do that "have everyone play every position for a few plays" thing they do so there's no chemistry going into TC, then this offense has the potential to be downright scary, especially if Brian Quick returns to form.
 

Corbin

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All the more reason I really like this draft. Gurley is a difference maker for all the right reasons.

Havenstein is the RT for this O. He doesn't hold, he mauls people and he doesn't give up sacks.

Brown will be the right RG for this O. He's quick in tight spaces, won't get beat on stunts, he really mauls people and he's got a good anchor for pass pro.

Foles and Keenum are the right QBs for this offense and Mannion will be developed well this year. I don't expect him to play at all, but I expect him to learn a ton and fight Keenum like hell for the backup job next year and likely win it.

This draft is going exactly as it should. Now, if our OL can be settled early and they don't do that "have everyone play every position for a few plays" thing they do so there's no chemistry going into TC, then this offense has the potential to be downright scary, especially if Brian Quick returns to form.
Mack some beast posts of you. I agree after sleeping on it I really think that our OL will be able to bully people around TBH especially in short yardage situations. I see these guys giving Gurley just enough daylight to squeak by and make a huge play.

The only pick I'm questioning is Mannion, more or less worried not questioning since those guys know what the hell they are doing and I'm a armchair draft guru but just seems like a stretch from what we already have potentially. I do like that they brought up in Mannion's presser that his 2014 tape was trash but he kept getting up and showed great poise with having no weapons and his OL got ravaged by injuries early.
 

Stranger

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So, we just significantly upgraded our QBR while also upgrading our running game, while also possessing a top-10 defense. Is it that hard to see just what strategy Snisher is employing? Seems straightforward and clear. What's to complain about?
Quarterback, defense and running game are three variables teams know they must manage in putting together a winning formula. There is no antidote for horrendous quarterback play. Since 2010, the 16 teams in the 10th percentile or worse for single-season Total QBR averaged 4.2 victories, with only one reaching 8-8
It's not yet clear how much the Rams have upgraded their quarterback situation, though. Newcomer Nick Foles was better for Philadelphia last season (62.2 QBR score) than any qualifying Rams quarterback has been in the nine-year history of the metric (Marc Bulger was at 57.3 in 2006).
 

Athos

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Seems like we're banking on a run game and D to carry us like the Hags. Well, I'd rather have a Russell Wilson almost if that were the case.

QB doesn't seem to be the future for Snisher. I hope Gurley is 110% and stays healthy because HE is the investment of the future, not the QB position.

But.....still gotta have a QB to win. Doesn't really matter how good your run game is. I pray for Foles health or we're screwed again.