Since '06--No Long Term QB Starters Drafted After 3rd Round

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RamBill

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From Bears GM Phil Emery:

"I just did a little study. It's very interesting," Emery said. "That developmental theory doesn't hold a whole lot of water. There's entire classes of quarterbacks, since '06, I went back and looked at from Jay Cutler's on -- when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn't a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you're either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you've got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that's unusual, highly unusual.

"Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that's where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn't make that pick."

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago-bears/post/_/id/4691890/palmer-early-favorite-at-no-2-qb
 

Sum1

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So I suppose you can say that either teams are getting better at evaluating QBs...or teams are giving up on developmental prospects before they have a chance.
 

The Rammer

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this is Bullshit! Sam was drafted in the 4th round.... Know it all's...
 

Pancake

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I don't think the reason is because the 3rd round and later QB's don't have the talent. How many chances do late round QB's ever get normally? If Bledsoe doesn't get hurt do we even know who Brady is? Same thing with Green and Warner. No Green injury and Warner might never have had his chance. But both of these guys most certainly had the talent.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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After listening to John Clayton interviewing McCarron, Murray, and Bortles on the radio, I am thinking that the Rams are going to be taking a QB on Day2,They talked about where the NFL teams told them they should be chosen in the draft. They all were higher than I expected. McCarron said he was told from 23 to mid second. Murray was supposedly a first rounder if not injured. Clayton said he probably goes 4th or 5th. But Murray commented on how well his recovery has gone, so I doubt he goes that low.

I figure it is that level of QB that the Rams are after, since they are some of the guys that they have been looking at. But listening to them talk, Murray and Bortles were much more well spoken. AJ seemed nervous and unprepared. I was surprised because being a D1 QB he should have had plenty of time behind a microphone.
 

moklerman

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As with all cutoff dates, I had to wonder why 2006 was the magical year.

In 2005, Kyle Orton, Dan Orlovsky, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell and Ryan Fitzpatrick were all drafted after the 3rd round.

In 2000, Bulger and Brady were taken after the 3rd.

Romo and Warner were undrafted.

Considering there are only 32 starting jobs in the NFL at QB, it just stands to reason that there aren't going to be loads of guys taken after the 3rd round that turn into starters. But this guy's trying to paint a picture like it's an absolute that if you don't draft a QB in the first 3 rounds you won't get a QB.

What about rounds 1-3 since 2006?

2013 - EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon.
2012 - Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russel Wilson, Nick Foles
2011 - Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett
2010 - Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy
2009 - Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White
2008 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Keven O'Connell
2007 - JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards
2006 - Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle

11/43 starters and that's being generous with a few of the names. Foles and Kaepernick are awfully early in their careers and even Dalton/Bradford aren't on the firmest of ground. Most years, it pans out to about 1 solid starter per draft. That's a big risk to be taking just for the fun of it.
 

moklerman

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That may be what they do but I could at least see some rationale behind drafting a "developmental" QB. If they burn a 1st through 3rd on a guy they don't even think will become the starter if need be...that would be a real waste. There are ALWAYS scotch tape veterans available at a low cost each year. It this early round pick is just going to be a warm body, why waste the pick? It could be used on potential starters not to mention valuable depth up and down the roster.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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I know they seem to like Murray but you could rationalize that it is not as likely that they would want an injured QB to be the possible replacement of their injured QB.

Plus McCarron was telling Clayton that one of the coaches was specifically interested in how well he managed the games and protected the ball, continuing to say that he is good at checkdowns and doesn't like taking risks. Sound familiar? Fits the offense. Plus McCarron is not as short as Murray. I don't know that Fisher ever had a short QB. So maybe McCarron or Savage are more likely than Mettenberger or Murray?
 

CGI_Ram

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I agree with the point Emery is making; guys like Brady, Bulger, Warner, and Romo are rare. If you want to find one, you need to cast your net early early in the draft and accept missing occasionally.

Heck, Cleveland has been searching since the early 90's to find one.

This is why the topic of replacing Bradford makes me chuckle. Be careful what you wish for. You could be searching a long time.
 

V3

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As with all cutoff dates, I had to wonder why 2006 was the magical year.

In 2005, Kyle Orton, Dan Orlovsky, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell and Ryan Fitzpatrick were all drafted after the 3rd round.

In 2000, Bulger and Brady were taken after the 3rd.

Romo and Warner were undrafted.

Considering there are only 32 starting jobs in the NFL at QB, it just stands to reason that there aren't going to be loads of guys taken after the 3rd round that turn into starters. But this guy's trying to paint a picture like it's an absolute that if you don't draft a QB in the first 3 rounds you won't get a QB.

What about rounds 1-3 since 2006?

2013 - EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon.
2012 - Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russel Wilson, Nick Foles
2011 - Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett
2010 - Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy
2009 - Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White
2008 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Keven O'Connell
2007 - JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards
2006 - Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle

11/43 starters and that's being generous with a few of the names. Foles and Kaepernick are awfully early in their careers and even Dalton/Bradford aren't on the firmest of ground. Most years, it pans out to about 1 solid starter per draft. That's a big risk to be taking just for the fun of it.

In the article he says he chose 2006 because that's when their QB was taken. Just the messenger.
 

V3

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I tend to agree with this philosophy. The odds are SO against you that taking a QB after the top round or two is almost guaranteed to be a waste. The best you can realistically hope for is a backup. There are always going to be examples of gems found later but there's a list of hundreds(thousands?) of others that didn't come even close. Unless one of the top guys falls, I don't want to take one. I've said some names that I like but I'm still not sure how realistic it is to expect them to become a good NFL QB.
 

OnceARam

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Starting QB's outside of the 1st round (and very high 2nd) are an anomaly. This is why we're going to be drafting a "backup" QB high, very high. ;)