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After watching film of both teams, Scouts Inc. breaks down key elements of the AFC Championship Game between the Ravens and Patriots. The NFC Championship Game preview is here.
• New England's weaponry: Rob Gronkowski's season is over, but the cupboards are not bare for Tom Brady, and New England is accustomed to playing without its star tight end. (It went 4-1 in the regular season without Gronk.) Despite a few drops, Wes Welker had 131 receiving yards last week, and Aaron Hernandez added 85. Add Brandon Lloyd into that equation along with the receiving prowess of New England's running backs, and there is no shortage of receivers for whom Baltimore must account. The Ravens' cornerbacks have been a problem, but the presence of safety Ed Reed in the middle of the field remains a plus. The Ravens have been much stingier over the past month and a half than early in the season, when Welker and Lloyd combined for 17 receptions and 250 yards against Baltimore in Week 3.
• Keep the great OL play going: Baltimore's offensive line has been excellent in the playoffs after inserting Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, moving Michael Oher to right tackle and moving Kelechi Osemele to left guard. The Broncos might have been the best pass-rushing defense during the regular season, but Joe Flacco was kept clean for most of the Ravens' passing plays and was sacked just once last week. Chandler Jones, possibly New England's best pass-rusher, was injured last week, and the Patriots didn't record one sack even though Matt Schaub attempted 51 passes. Disrupting Flacco might prove difficult.
• Show balance: Contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a balanced offense. And their running game is a dimension that can set this great offense apart from past years' versions. Stevan Ridley is New England's lead back, but once Danny Woodhead left last week's game, Shane Vereen stepped up huge with 124 total yards and three touchdowns. The left side of the Patriots' offensive line, made up of Logan Mankins and Nate Solder, was particularly dominating versus Houston. However, New England's running game was extremely ineffective when these teams met in Week 3, collectively averaging just 2.3 yards per rush, while the Broncos averaged only 3 yards per carry against this defense last week. Ray Lewis finished that game with 17 tackles and has been great versus the run since returning to action, and Haloti Ngata, although still not himself, is always difficult to uproot on the interior. The Ravens' defense has allowed just 30 points in two playoff games and has forced five turnovers this postseason.
• Home QB: Brady continued his postseason dominance against Houston, throwing for 344 yards. Brady has been absolutely outstanding versus the blitz this season, which was once again the case last week, increasing his totals to 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions against extra pass-rushers. Terrell Suggs had two sacks last week as the Ravens' pass rush picked up in a big way in the second half of that game, increasing its blitz frequency. But it is Paul Kruger who has been Baltimore's best pass-rusher this season. It should be noted that Brady has a concerning 4-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his past four meetings against Baltimore.
• Away QB: Flacco threw for 331 yards last week and had an excellent showing overall. He hasn't thrown an interception in the Ravens' two playoff games and has excelled with the deep ball in particular this postseason. This big-armed passer has taken his game to a new level in the playoffs. The Patriots allowed Schaub to throw for 343 yards last week, but much of that production came when the Texans were really in comeback mode. The Patriots' defense is susceptible to biting on play-action, which is something Flacco will surely incorporate as part of the Ravens' deep passing offense.
• Key positional battle -- Ravens' RBs vs. Patriots' LBs: Ray Rice is a great player, but he has run with more trepidation and less burst than what we are accustomed to seeing. He has accumulated an awful lot of touches over the past few years, and it is starting to show. Bernard Pierce, who has been quite impressive when relieving Rice, was not available for the end of last week's game, but Baltimore ran for 155 yards against a very good Denver run defense. Rice had 131 of those rushing yards on a whopping 30 carries. Baltimore loves to incorporate a traditional blocking fullback in its offense, and no one handles those responsibilities better than Vonta Leach. Arian Foster had a big day against the Patriots and was especially potent as a receiver in the flat, racking up 153 total yards, but overall, the Patriots' defense has done a nice job limiting opposing running backs' production. Vince Wilfork has stepped his game up in recent weeks, and New England features three heavy linebackers who excel crashing downhill. Baltimore's best chance of establishing a running game might be on the perimeter.
• Featured player: Torrey Smith got behind Champ Bailey and the Broncos' pass defense on numerous occasions in the divisional round. He scored two long touchdowns but could have had more. Baltimore is 7-0 in games in which Smith has scored, which isn't a coincidence. Obviously, Smith has superb speed, which is extremely important for an offense that consistently takes shots deep with Flacco's big arm, but Smith isn't an accomplished overall route-runner. Anquan Boldin lacks anything resembling Smith's speed, but he is extremely physical and is a very accomplished route runner. Dennis Pitta has emerged as a very solid third option for Flacco, although the Patriots have been stingy against opposing tight ends.
• Film room nuggets: Smith's big-play ability opens up the middle of the field for Boldin and Pitta, and he was simply fantastic when these teams last met. New England really struggled against the deep ball in that matchup, but the Patriots are sure to now put Aqib Talib on Smith. The Patriots play much more man coverage than before Talib was acquired, and the big plays allowed have been reduced dramatically. ... Although Denver's Trindon Holliday had two returns for touchdowns last week, the Ravens' special teams were the best in football during the regular season. On the flip side, the Patriots had all sorts of problems containing Danieal Manning on kickoff returns last week.
Prediction:
New England 30
Baltimore 23
After watching film of both teams, Scouts Inc. breaks down key elements of the AFC Championship Game between the Ravens and Patriots. The NFC Championship Game preview is here.
• New England's weaponry: Rob Gronkowski's season is over, but the cupboards are not bare for Tom Brady, and New England is accustomed to playing without its star tight end. (It went 4-1 in the regular season without Gronk.) Despite a few drops, Wes Welker had 131 receiving yards last week, and Aaron Hernandez added 85. Add Brandon Lloyd into that equation along with the receiving prowess of New England's running backs, and there is no shortage of receivers for whom Baltimore must account. The Ravens' cornerbacks have been a problem, but the presence of safety Ed Reed in the middle of the field remains a plus. The Ravens have been much stingier over the past month and a half than early in the season, when Welker and Lloyd combined for 17 receptions and 250 yards against Baltimore in Week 3.
• Keep the great OL play going: Baltimore's offensive line has been excellent in the playoffs after inserting Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, moving Michael Oher to right tackle and moving Kelechi Osemele to left guard. The Broncos might have been the best pass-rushing defense during the regular season, but Joe Flacco was kept clean for most of the Ravens' passing plays and was sacked just once last week. Chandler Jones, possibly New England's best pass-rusher, was injured last week, and the Patriots didn't record one sack even though Matt Schaub attempted 51 passes. Disrupting Flacco might prove difficult.
• Show balance: Contrary to popular belief, the Patriots are a balanced offense. And their running game is a dimension that can set this great offense apart from past years' versions. Stevan Ridley is New England's lead back, but once Danny Woodhead left last week's game, Shane Vereen stepped up huge with 124 total yards and three touchdowns. The left side of the Patriots' offensive line, made up of Logan Mankins and Nate Solder, was particularly dominating versus Houston. However, New England's running game was extremely ineffective when these teams met in Week 3, collectively averaging just 2.3 yards per rush, while the Broncos averaged only 3 yards per carry against this defense last week. Ray Lewis finished that game with 17 tackles and has been great versus the run since returning to action, and Haloti Ngata, although still not himself, is always difficult to uproot on the interior. The Ravens' defense has allowed just 30 points in two playoff games and has forced five turnovers this postseason.
• Home QB: Brady continued his postseason dominance against Houston, throwing for 344 yards. Brady has been absolutely outstanding versus the blitz this season, which was once again the case last week, increasing his totals to 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions against extra pass-rushers. Terrell Suggs had two sacks last week as the Ravens' pass rush picked up in a big way in the second half of that game, increasing its blitz frequency. But it is Paul Kruger who has been Baltimore's best pass-rusher this season. It should be noted that Brady has a concerning 4-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his past four meetings against Baltimore.
• Away QB: Flacco threw for 331 yards last week and had an excellent showing overall. He hasn't thrown an interception in the Ravens' two playoff games and has excelled with the deep ball in particular this postseason. This big-armed passer has taken his game to a new level in the playoffs. The Patriots allowed Schaub to throw for 343 yards last week, but much of that production came when the Texans were really in comeback mode. The Patriots' defense is susceptible to biting on play-action, which is something Flacco will surely incorporate as part of the Ravens' deep passing offense.
• Key positional battle -- Ravens' RBs vs. Patriots' LBs: Ray Rice is a great player, but he has run with more trepidation and less burst than what we are accustomed to seeing. He has accumulated an awful lot of touches over the past few years, and it is starting to show. Bernard Pierce, who has been quite impressive when relieving Rice, was not available for the end of last week's game, but Baltimore ran for 155 yards against a very good Denver run defense. Rice had 131 of those rushing yards on a whopping 30 carries. Baltimore loves to incorporate a traditional blocking fullback in its offense, and no one handles those responsibilities better than Vonta Leach. Arian Foster had a big day against the Patriots and was especially potent as a receiver in the flat, racking up 153 total yards, but overall, the Patriots' defense has done a nice job limiting opposing running backs' production. Vince Wilfork has stepped his game up in recent weeks, and New England features three heavy linebackers who excel crashing downhill. Baltimore's best chance of establishing a running game might be on the perimeter.
• Featured player: Torrey Smith got behind Champ Bailey and the Broncos' pass defense on numerous occasions in the divisional round. He scored two long touchdowns but could have had more. Baltimore is 7-0 in games in which Smith has scored, which isn't a coincidence. Obviously, Smith has superb speed, which is extremely important for an offense that consistently takes shots deep with Flacco's big arm, but Smith isn't an accomplished overall route-runner. Anquan Boldin lacks anything resembling Smith's speed, but he is extremely physical and is a very accomplished route runner. Dennis Pitta has emerged as a very solid third option for Flacco, although the Patriots have been stingy against opposing tight ends.
• Film room nuggets: Smith's big-play ability opens up the middle of the field for Boldin and Pitta, and he was simply fantastic when these teams last met. New England really struggled against the deep ball in that matchup, but the Patriots are sure to now put Aqib Talib on Smith. The Patriots play much more man coverage than before Talib was acquired, and the big plays allowed have been reduced dramatically. ... Although Denver's Trindon Holliday had two returns for touchdowns last week, the Ravens' special teams were the best in football during the regular season. On the flip side, the Patriots had all sorts of problems containing Danieal Manning on kickoff returns last week.
Prediction:
New England 30
Baltimore 23
