Scouts Inc. Clowney No. 1 Overall?

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CGI_Ram

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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nfl-draft/post?id=3080

INDIANAPOLIS -- Monday brought us one of the more impressive 40-yard dashes you’ll see from a prospect at the NFL scouting combine, in addition to several other standout performances among the defensive linemen and linebackers.

Here are the five biggest story lines of the day, starting with the top prospect in the 2014 class.

1. Will Jadeveon Clowney be the No. 1 overall pick?

There was some discussion that came out of Clowney’s performance Monday involving his decision not to participate in events outside of the 40-yard dash, vertical and broad jumps and three-cone drill, whether he had told teams that this was his plan all along and whether or not he blamed a hip injury on his choosing not to participate.

To be honest, none of that really matters to me. I don’t think he did himself any favors by throwing in the hip injury comment, but I don’t really think this is going to have any effect whether or not he goes No. 1 overall to the Houston Texans. He showed again Monday in the events in which he did participate why he is the best player in this draft, and the top draft talent of the past two classes.

To put Clowney’s 4.53 40-time, which included a 1.56 10-yard split, into perspective, consider this: The five-year combine averages among wide receivers are 4.54 in the 40, with a 1.58 10-yard split. And their average size was 6-foot, 202 pounds. Clowney is 6-6, 266. Also, that 40 time is faster than Johnny Manziel’s and those of three of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game today -- Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.

Moreover, when you factor in his impressive vertical jump, broad jump and three-cone drill scores, you get the picture of an elite athlete that backs up what we see of him on tape.

It’s important to note that in talking with teams, I have heard some comment on his immaturity and sense of entitlement and that he’s going to do what he wants to do, when he wants, and his interviews have supposedly been something of a mixed bag (but nothing glaring). So long as you think he’s going to give you enough effort on the field, he’s the premier talent in this class.

Remember, defensive linemen aren’t like quarterbacks or left tackles or even middle linebackers; the position is far less about reliability and far more about delivering the occasional high-impact play. With his performance on Monday, Clowney provided yet another reminder of what a disruptive playmaker he can be. He’ll have to prepare well for the agility and other drills at his pro day and subsequent individual workouts for teams, particularly with regard to his stamina, but I expect him to do so.

So, will the Texans take him No. 1 overall? It’s hard to say, but I think he is one of three potential options for them:

" Take the best quarterback on their board. I’ve heard a few different people around the league say that Manziel doesn’t seem like a likely fit for Houston at No. 1, given head coach Bill O’Brien’s past history at quarterback. That leaves the safer choice in Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater and the higher-ceiling prospect with prototypical size and less polish in UCF’s Blake Bortles.

" Take Auburn left tackle Greg Robinson. We’ve been saying since studying his tape in January that Robinson was worthy of consideration for the top overall pick, and that he’d fill a need for Houston. He’d provide a huge upgrade in their running game immediately, and he’s talented enough to hold up in pass protection initially before developing into a very good player in that area as well. Simply put, he has the chance to be a star, and we started hearing from league contacts this week not to discount the possibility that Robinson could go No. 1 to the Texans.

" Take Clowney and then try to draft a QB later. This one comes down to two factors: Whether they have a much higher grade on him than they do the prospects at their positions of need, therefore making it worth taking him as something of a luxury pick (it’d be the ultimate value-over-need pick). And whether they see a clear role for him in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defensive scheme, since his ideal fit is as a 4-3 defensive end. They could then take a QB later, such as Eastern Illinois’ Jimmy Garoppolo, LSU’s Zach Mettenberger or Alabama’s AJ McCarron.

It remains to be seen which way the Texans will go, but the bottom line is this: We view Clowney as the No. 1 prospect in this draft, and our guess is if you polled all 32 NFL general managers, the vast majority would say the same. --Todd McShay

2. Aaron Donald has the best overall workout of any player Monday, and could go in the top 15 picks.

Clowney had the biggest “wow” moment Monday, but Donald was unbelievable. He ran a 4.68 40-yard dash, fastest among DTs and fifth-fastest among all D-linemen, at 285 pounds. He did 35 bench press reps, second among D-linemen, and was first among D-tackles and fourth overall among D-linemen in the three-cone drill with a 7.11. This comes on the heels of a very productive career at Pittsburgh, and a Senior Bowl during which he was unblockable.

Outside of length, he has everything you’re looking for in a 3-technique. He’s productive, he did great in his interviews and he proved Monday that he’s just an all-around explosive athlete. I think he’s definitely one of the top 25 players in this draft, and he might even belong among the top 20. I didn’t think it was possible just a few weeks ago, but I think he could possibly be in the mix for the Bears at No. 14 or Cowboys at No. 16. --T.M.

3. Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr performed as advertised.

Not surprisingly, Mack had the most complete workout of any linebacker. At 6-2, 251 pounds he ran a 4.66 40 and produced a 40-inch vertical, among other really strong results. I don’t think he’s a candidate to go No. 1 overall, as some have suggested, but I think he’s a legit top-five guy. For a guy like him who played at a lower level of competition, Monday was really good for him. It really makes you believe your eyes when you study his tape and see how dominant he is, especially as he played in the Ohio State game.

Barr once again proved that he’s really fast and a really good athlete, running a 4.66 40 and faring really well in the short shuttle and three-cone drills. Both of his jumps, which measure lower-half explosiveness, were middle of the pack, which is consistent with what we see on tape of him. We haven’t seen a lot of explosiveness or finishing ability from him. --T.M.

4. "Off-the-line linebackers" have mixed results

At 6-2 and 234 pounds Alabama's C.J. Mosley has the prototypical frame and above-average length (33.3-inch arms) for a linebacker prospect. He has improved his ability to get off blocks but it's still not his greatest strength. Wisconsin's Chris Borland benched 225 pounds 27 times and he can jar blockers in a phone booth, but at 5-11¼ and 248 pounds he has 29.2-inch arms. He lacks the length to press blockers off his frame and locate the ball when he lines up on the line.

Both are at their best playing in space, using their quickness and instincts to beat blockers to the point and their hands to keep blockers off their frame as they work down the line. They don't have to leave the field on third down either.

But neither player stood out during testing. Mosley jumped well, but he didn't run the 40 missing out a chance to confirm his range and he didn't post the shuttle or the three-cone times you'd expect considering the way he changes directions on tape. Borland posted an adequate 4.83 40-yard dash and didn't jump as well as expected based on the short-area explosiveness he shows on tape. However, outside of Mosley having a hard time catching the ball, they both excelled during position-specific drills. Their ability to sink and change directions stood out. They also did a nice job of flipping their hips and getting to depth when asked to drop.

Ohio State's Ryan Shazier is another linebacker at his best playing off the line. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, so he didn't take part in the position-specific drills but he did most of the testing. The numbers he put up back up the athleticism that he has shown on tape. At 6-1 and 237 pounds with 32.3-inch arms, no linebacker jumped higher or farther than Shazier, who recorded an impressive 42-inch vertical and 10-foot, 10-inch broad jump. He also ran the fifth quickest three-cone time (6.91 seconds) and ninth fastest short shuttle (4.21 seconds). The one box that Shazier failed to check was the 40, but speed is one of his strengths on tape so it would be a surprise if he didn't run well if and when he gets the chance. --Steve Muench

5. Two Division II prospects stand out.

The Division II level was well represented during the defensive line workouts Monday. Bloomsburg DE Larry Webster and Shepherd OLB Howard Jones were a pair of the big winners, especially during the testing portion of the workout.

Checking in at 6-6 and 252 pounds, Webster clocked in with an impressive 4.58 40-yard dash, which was good enough for second among all defensive linemen. He also added a 36½ vertical jump (sixth overall) and a 10-3 broad jump, which was well above the five-year average for defensive ends at the combine. Webster's athleticism and explosiveness, showcased on Monday, is not surprising considering his background. He actually started his athletic career at Bloomsburg playing four years on the basketball team before making the switch to football the past two seasons. Interesting enough, Division II eligibility rules are dictated based off 10 total semesters -- which is why Webster was able to participate in athletics after basketball.

Looking at Webster, he must continue to get stronger, particularly in the lower body where he has a linear build and learn to play with better pad level. However, he has been productive over two seasons with 26 sacks and made strides from his first season to second season. Webster is still extremely raw as a prospect but was able to showcase the athleticism to go along with an intriguing frame that will be appealing to teams as a developmental prospect somewhere in the Day 3 range.

As for Jones, he doesn't have the same upside in terms of filling out his frame as Webster does. Jones checked in at a lean 6-2 and 235 pounds. However, his workout was just as impressive coming in the top five for 40-yard dash (4.60), broad jump (10-4) and three-cone (7.16) while holding the top vertical jump of 40.5 inches. Jones will need to transition to an OLB for a base 3-4 front at the next level. He is a bit tight and still has a lot of developing to do in terms of instincts and awareness in space. However, the speed and explosiveness he showed on Monday matches his tape in terms of a speed rusher off the edge where he set the school's career record with 35 sacks. Howard will likely garner attention in the mid-to-late rounds, where he may be able to add value as a situational pass-rusher and special teams contributor. --Kevin Weidl
 

Yamahopper

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To put Clowney’s 4.53 40-time, which included a 1.56 10-yard split, into perspective, consider this: The five-year combine averages among wide receivers are 4.54 in the 40, with a 1.58 10-yard split. And their average size was 6-foot, 202 pounds. Clowney is 6-6, 266. Also, that 40 time is faster than Johnny Manziel’s and those of three of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game today -- Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.

That's the Clowney love right there.
 

Rambitious1

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To put Clowney’s 4.53 40-time, which included a 1.56 10-yard split, into perspective, consider this: The five-year combine averages among wide receivers are 4.54 in the 40, with a 1.58 10-yard split. And their average size was 6-foot, 202 pounds. Clowney is 6-6, 266. Also, that 40 time is faster than Johnny Manziel’s and those of three of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game today -- Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.

That's the Clowney love right there.

No offense, but I really don't care much about his measurables. I'm tired of the Rams taking workout warriors that are not that good at playing football. I look at several things, prior production in college....and most importantly football instincts/how he plays, game time effort, work ethic and off the field stuff. And those latter four things gives Clowney four red flags. The most important being game time effort and work ethic. Although his technique is a bit worrying as well.


IMHO way too risky to draft him anywhere near number 1.
 

fearsomefour

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I think he goes 1 overall.
Best athlete, best upside and can used in various ways. Teaming him with Watt could be terrifying for OCs.
The more I think about it I think a lot of teams in the top 10 will be looking to move down in particular the ones that have added a QB already. I think these QBs as a group are over rates and guys like Bridgewater, JM ect go mid first round or later.
If the Rams stay at two there are only three names I feel good about at that spot....Clowney, Matthews and Watkins. That's it.
If the Rams sit tight at O line, something they may very well do, and Clowney goes first I would trade out of that pick even if there was not a ton of value coming back. Being able to move down or up with the 13 pick may prove more valuable than 2. If we move off of 2 getting a first round of Evans and Donald or Martin and Dennard can be very doable.
 

nighttrain

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To put Clowney’s 4.53 40-time, which included a 1.56 10-yard split, into perspective, consider this: The five-year combine averages among wide receivers are 4.54 in the 40, with a 1.58 10-yard split. And their average size was 6-foot, 202 pounds. Clowney is 6-6, 266. Also, that 40 time is faster than Johnny Manziel’s and those of three of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game today -- Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson.

That's the Clowney love right there.
I don't think we need Clowney (we have Robert Quinn and Chris Long) but I have admit, his speed and size remind me of a young Deacon Jones, but so does Quinn.

We have greater needs on OL, SB has to be protected for us to win
train
 

Yamahopper

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I don't think we need Clowney (we have Robert Quinn and Chris Long) but I have admit, his speed and size remind me of a young Deacon Jones, but so does Quinn.

We have greater needs on OL, SB has to be protected for us to win
train
That's all true. But what about 2 years from now? Long's gone Quinn maybe too. It's years 3-5 that a you get full value out of a pick.
 

CGI_Ram

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I'm cool with Clowney as part of a succession plan. I'm not running CL off the team, but keeping the pipeline loaded at DE isn't a bad thing.

That said; I don't think Clowney helps this team as much as an Olineman.

With a franchise OT, it's just as important cog on the team and fills a succession void too.

I'll be shocked if we pick Clowney.
 

nighttrain

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That's all true. But what about 2 years from now? Long's gone Quinn maybe too. It's years 3-5 that a you get full value out of a pick.
I'd like to see us give our own player decent contracts, ones that make them want to remain Rams. I think Long under contract and big talk Is Rams are going to go all out to resign Quinn
train
ps that would make both Quinn and Long here for a lot longer than this season and next
train
 

RamzFanz

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I'm cool with Clowney as part of a succession plan. I'm not running CL off the team, but keeping the pipeline loaded at DE isn't a bad thing.

That said; I don't think Clowney helps this team as much as an Olineman.

With a franchise OT, it's just as important cog on the team and fills a succession void too.

I'll be shocked if we pick Clowney.

I think Clowney is the trade bait right now because he would be a luxury pick but, if the Rams don't trade, how could you pass?

BPA should trump need for your first pick just about every time. This would be one of those times. Quinn / Clowney would strike fear in the bravest QBs and could become a thing of legend.

Good OL's are far too common where a Clowney is a rarity.