Sam Bradford - Arizona and Atlanta Games Revisited

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jrry32

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Fair warning, this is not a complimentary post. It's a tough look at the first couple of games and some of the issues I am noticing with Sam. The biggest issues are that related to his field vision and anticipation which all might go back to him reading the defense. It's hard to pin-point with QBs. Regardless, here are some examples on film of him having opportunity to attack the second and third level and struggling to do so:
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It's 3rd and long, Bradford has time in the pocket...he needs to take a chance here...once Austin clears the LB, he has a lot of space.
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This play ended up working out as Bradford made a great throw to Givens...however, he had an easier and potentially bigger play to Cook who opened up on the scramble drill. Gotta keep his eyes active while scrambling. He locked on Givens.
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Never even looks at Austin. Austin has inside positioning and there's a window to throw to with a whole lot of space. Not an easy throw but a throw a NFL QB should make. OL did him no favors though.
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Again, Bradford throws short right before Pettis clears the defender and is wide open down the seam.
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I isolated this play because it shows a lack of anticipation...he needs the ball to be leaving his hand at this point. Lob the ball over the OL so D-Rich can catch it in stride in space. Instead, he waits until Richardson is clearly open and the LB makes the tackle for only 1 yard gain on what could have been an easy 10 yard pick-up.
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Another scramble drill play...it's a tighter window but Bradford has Austin if he pulls the trigger and throws it into the open space. Instead, he holds onto it until it's too late and the safety knocks the ball down on the sideline.
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He read this one right. Just made a bad throw. Austin has inside positioning. He should have thrown a ball with zip down the open window on the seam...instead he threw it to the red box over the top forcing Austin to break off his post route and allowing the defender, who was over the top, to knock the ball away.
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Again, not the easiest throw but Cook has a window. Throw it into the open space and let him go get it.
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No description necessary.
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He ends up throwing to Givens for a first down but Austin is wide open down the field. Much easier throw.
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Austin has inside position on the quick slant, the ball should be out. There's a window and a TD if Austin holds onto it.
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Two WRs open...Bradford chooses Givens(short route) and airmails the ball over his head for an incomplete pass.
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Austin runs the corner to wide open space. Sam never sees him. All he would have had to do is loft the ball to the back part of the end-zone.
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Cook gets across the face of the LB. There's a wide open window in the middle of the end-zone. Sam needs to pull the trigger.

Look, I'm not saying these are the easiest throws in the world but these are the type of throws that separate guys like Alex Smith and Sam from guys like Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.

I just am not confident Sam will ever be the guy that can see these plays as they are happening and make these throws. However, our OL...especially the interior...are doing him absolutely no favors.
 

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Thanks for the hard work there, Jrry. I noticed a few of those as they were happening, and when I went back to look at the game again. While I'd imagine a QB leaves quite a few plays on the field during any game, it appears to me that Sam is a little too preoccupied with playing it safe and not causing a turnover himself. I'm not sure if that has to do with a lack of trust in his receivers, being developed as a game manager, how he's being coached now, or being a little shell-shocked right now.

If it's a mental thing right now, that's going to be difficult to overcome. We've all seen what happens to QBs who lack the confidence to hang in the pocket and wait for longer routes to develop. That's not to say that he can't get it back, because there are also QBs who resurrected their careers or got their form back as well.

I can't pinpoint what happened, and that's the frustrating part. The better half of last year, and the first game of this year, he looked like he was making major strides. And now, for whatever reason, he seems more tentative in the pocket and less willing to stretch the defense. I hope, for his sake, that he gets it straightened out soon, because it won't take much more for Fisher to bring in some competition.
 

bluecoconuts

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That last picture I don't think throwing to cook would be the correct throw.

There is obviously a lane there, and sitting there watching Sam is the linebacker. It would have been an easy interception if he went to Cook. He can't lift it over the line because he'll just throw it over Cook's head. He can't throw between Wells and Dahl because that would be well behind Cook, and also an easy interception to the line backer there, and he obviously can't throw through the ref, which still wouldn't be a good throw and would be picked off because it would be behind Cook.

So essentially by the coverage by the defense, where the throwing lane is and to some extend where the ref is, Cook is not an option on that play. If he was to complete it to Cook for the TD it would have to be because the defense was so incredibly stupid they just didn't react and let it happen. Which you obviously can't count on.



The rest of the plays I'll take a look at. Obviously there are places that Sam needs to improve upon, and he has missed a few throws, as does every QB... That last one though it's a misread by Sam. Throwing it to Cook would be the misread.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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Sam has plenty of time on that last one.

My thoughts on Sam from the beginning were that he looked very green. I figured he would learn as time went on and be able to make these throws by now. I guess that the look on his face is not that of being inexperienced, but more so that he just doesn't have it. Sam does not look or talk like a leader. He gives the impression of being bright eyed and bushytailed (if that makes sense to you). People are dismissive of these impressions often but I have found that over time I need to believe them. Cutler had a 'look' and he lived up to it.

Enough with the personal impressions. Sam has trust issues. He does not like to throw to WRs that he doesn't trust. He immediately looks for the guy that has not been dropping the ball. Recently this has been Pettis. In the beginning he was looking to Givens and Cook a lot. They both had some drops as did Tavon Austin and now he is down to trusting ONE wide receiver again.... a la Danny Amendola. So he locks onto his new favorite target and is very predictable.

Batted Passes- I am guessing that it must be very obvious to DLinemen to tell when Sam is about to throw. Maybe it is a look on his face that he gets or the way he holds his arm but he certainly doesn't have a quick release that is unexpected, because he gets far too many balls batted down.

Hearing footsteps-
Sam obviously has reason not to trust his Oline and compound that by not trusting his WRs and there is no outlet for him. He gets scared and has nobody to turn to. This is a mental thing obviously but I am not so sure he will ever get over it.


In the end, I have given up hope that Sam will ever even be a good game manager. I don't think he has the vision or ability to process information quickly enough to be a franchise QB. I have held out hope up until the last two games. The Rams need to draft a replacement IMO.
 

RaminExile

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Good work. Very well broken down.

We have to remember that Sam is still young as a QB. He needs to step up and make some of these plays but that requires more confidence than he's got at the minute due to the circumstances around him. It'll come. In time.

The only one I'm not sure about is that picture at the bottom - it looks open when you freeze it like that, but look at that linebacker playing the deep zone in the middle. He's just reading the QB's eyes there- without a pretty good pump fake and an absolute rocket of a throw that's a gonna be a pick if he looks to hit cook - or he can throw it high and let Cook go up to dunk it - but he'll get knocked out in the end zone by the FS shading his way!
 

Elmgrovegnome

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bluecoconuts said:
That last picture I don't think throwing to cook would be the correct throw.

There is obviously a lane there, and sitting there watching Sam is the linebacker. It would have been an easy interception if he went to Cook. He can't lift it over the line because he'll just throw it over Cook's head. He can't throw between Wells and Dahl because that would be well behind Cook, and also an easy interception to the line backer there, and he obviously can't throw through the ref, which still wouldn't be a good throw and would be picked off because it would be behind Cook.

So essentially by the coverage by the defense, where the throwing lane is and to some extend where the ref is, Cook is not an option on that play. If he was to complete it to Cook for the TD it would have to be because the defense was so incredibly stupid they just didn't react and let it happen. Which you obviously can't count on.



The rest of the plays I'll take a look at. Obviously there are places that Sam needs to improve upon, and he has missed a few throws, as does every QB... That last one though it's a misread by Sam. Throwing it to Cook would be the misread.

I disagree. I think he could and should have laid that one in there. Cook is tall and can jump. Sam could have put it out of the Linebackers reach. That was the right throw.
 

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Colin has a point too. A lot of those throws would require high velocity and pinpoint accuracy to get it to where it has to be, because those defenders could close that window in a hurry. There's really no way to determine if the alternate throws you're dialing up would be successful because of that, but I get your point. If the "opportunity" is there, it's better to take a deep shot than play it safe. To that end, however, I have to wonder if he's being coached to make those "extended handoffs" in lieu of taking chances down the field.

A few of those throws, however, really should have been made.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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RaminExile said:
Good work. Very well broken down.

We have to remember that Sam is still young as a QB. He needs to step up and make some of these plays but that requires more confidence than he's got at the minute due to the circumstances around him. It'll come. In time.

The only one I'm not sure about is that picture at the bottom - it looks open when you freeze it like that, but look at that linebacker playing the deep zone in the middle. He's just reading the QB's eyes there- without a pretty good pump fake and an absolute rocket of a throw that's a gonna be a pick if he looks to hit cook - or he can throw it high and let Cook go up to dunk it - but he'll get knocked out in the end zone by the FS shading his way!


Keep in mind that the ball should already be in the air. Cook was breaking. Sam doesn't have a pump fake btw and his anticipation is horrible. Good QBs make that throw and a good TE catches.
 

bluecoconuts

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Elmgrovegnome said:
bluecoconuts said:
That last picture I don't think throwing to cook would be the correct throw.

There is obviously a lane there, and sitting there watching Sam is the linebacker. It would have been an easy interception if he went to Cook. He can't lift it over the line because he'll just throw it over Cook's head. He can't throw between Wells and Dahl because that would be well behind Cook, and also an easy interception to the line backer there, and he obviously can't throw through the ref, which still wouldn't be a good throw and would be picked off because it would be behind Cook.

So essentially by the coverage by the defense, where the throwing lane is and to some extend where the ref is, Cook is not an option on that play. If he was to complete it to Cook for the TD it would have to be because the defense was so incredibly stupid they just didn't react and let it happen. Which you obviously can't count on.



The rest of the plays I'll take a look at. Obviously there are places that Sam needs to improve upon, and he has missed a few throws, as does every QB... That last one though it's a misread by Sam. Throwing it to Cook would be the misread.

I disagree. I think he could and should have laid that one in there. Cook is tall and can jump. Sam could have put it out of the Linebackers reach. That was the right throw.

With the safety up top? He has to throw over the LB and hope the Safety doesn't jump up on the route, I don't think it would have worked out.

I'll have to look at the play full speed to tell for sure, but I think it would have taken one hell of a throw and still hope the defense doesn't react in time.
 

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Elmgrovegnome said:
RaminExile said:
Good work. Very well broken down.

We have to remember that Sam is still young as a QB. He needs to step up and make some of these plays but that requires more confidence than he's got at the minute due to the circumstances around him. It'll come. In time.

The only one I'm not sure about is that picture at the bottom - it looks open when you freeze it like that, but look at that linebacker playing the deep zone in the middle. He's just reading the QB's eyes there- without a pretty good pump fake and an absolute rocket of a throw that's a gonna be a pick if he looks to hit cook - or he can throw it high and let Cook go up to dunk it - but he'll get knocked out in the end zone by the FS shading his way!


Keep in mind that the ball should already be in the air. Cook was breaking. Sam doesn't have a pump fake btw and his anticipation is horrible. Good QBs make that throw and a good TE catches.
I have to disagree with that. He has used a shoulder fake many times, and his anticipation - early on in his career - was stellar. I've seen guys from the NFL break that down specifically and I still have the videos w/their commentary stashed on my computer. This is a new issue with him, IMO, because last year and early this year this wasn't something that appeared to be a problem.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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There are too many instances where a good fake would make a big difference but Sam just doesn't do it. Most QBs that lock onto a target don't fake because they are not thinking about anything but getting the ball to their target.
 

DR RAM

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bluecoconuts said:
That last picture I don't think throwing to cook would be the correct throw.

There is obviously a lane there, and sitting there watching Sam is the linebacker. It would have been an easy interception if he went to Cook. He can't lift it over the line because he'll just throw it over Cook's head. He can't throw between Wells and Dahl because that would be well behind Cook, and also an easy interception to the line backer there, and he obviously can't throw through the ref, which still wouldn't be a good throw and would be picked off because it would be behind Cook.

So essentially by the coverage by the defense, where the throwing lane is and to some extend where the ref is, Cook is not an option on that play. If he was to complete it to Cook for the TD it would have to be because the defense was so incredibly stupid they just didn't react and let it happen. Which you obviously can't count on.



The rest of the plays I'll take a look at. Obviously there are places that Sam needs to improve upon, and he has missed a few throws, as does every QB... That last one though it's a misread by Sam. Throwing it to Cook would be the misread.
I have issue with more than a few plays that you outlined, and I agree with nuts on the Cook throw. As soon as Sam turns his eyes there, the linebacker can take two steps and at least knock it down, they are way too close.

On another play, you want Sam to see someone while scrambling, and throw it back across his body, not a good choice if you ask me.

On a few others Sam is throwing to open players, so I can't fault him for that.

On one play, you want Sam to see and throw to the other side of the field, when you can see a whole route tree in front of him, he doesn't normally have time to go through 3 progressions, and look back to the other side of the field.

There are a couple plays where Sam probably could have made a different throw, not should have made a different throw.

There are pressures, breakdowns, we don't know if the receivers are where they are supposed to be, we don't know the play call.

jrry, we know that you have lost all confidence in Sam, and it seems that you are on a crusade to convince others to do the same. I am not willing to go there with all the other problems on the team. I will not do it, because there are so many factors that we know about, and so many more that we don't know about.

I know this for a fact, if Sam, or any QB in history, keeps getting crushed, hurried, pressured, sacked, hit in the face, he will under-perform. It is a fact. I've never seen a QB succeed under those circumstances. Never. Compound that with a offense full of guys NOT executing, receivers running sloppy, or wrong routes, dropping the ball on third downs, different interior offensive lineman whiffing, tight ends, and running backs missing blocks and assignments, not playing your best pass pro RB.

I'm not asking for a perfect complement that would make Sam look great. I am just looking for a little consistency, good or bad, because then he would know, and our OC would know how to make adjustments, and to overcome our weaknesses, and strengths. We can't do that, because we have a different guy fucking up on every play. If pressure only comes from the outside, or hopefully only one side, then he would be able to step up. But he can't, because our RB's can't block, our center gets beat, and hardly gets his hand on his man, then the LG misses a block, then, the RG misses a block. Internal pressure is way worse than external pressure. There is nowhere to go, and it gets there too fast.

I can't throw him under the bus at this point. There's too many factors contributing to his lack of success. BTW, you could do this type of analysis to any team, including Denver, and you will be able to find similar looks. Really, only the coaches know if Sam is making the wrong decisions. They know.

I do appreciate the amount of time and effort that you put into this.
 

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Elmgrovegnome said:
RaminExile said:
Good work. Very well broken down.

We have to remember that Sam is still young as a QB. He needs to step up and make some of these plays but that requires more confidence than he's got at the minute due to the circumstances around him. It'll come. In time.

The only one I'm not sure about is that picture at the bottom - it looks open when you freeze it like that, but look at that linebacker playing the deep zone in the middle. He's just reading the QB's eyes there- without a pretty good pump fake and an absolute rocket of a throw that's a gonna be a pick if he looks to hit cook - or he can throw it high and let Cook go up to dunk it - but he'll get knocked out in the end zone by the FS shading his way!


Keep in mind that the ball should already be in the air. Cook was breaking. Sam doesn't have a pump fake btw and his anticipation is horrible. Good QBs make that throw and a good TE catches.
With your reasoning, you are assuming that this is Sam's first progression. You don't know if it was. If it was, he would have looked at him. If he would have looked at him, the play wouldn't be open.
 

jrry32

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bluecoconuts said:
That last picture I don't think throwing to cook would be the correct throw.

There is obviously a lane there, and sitting there watching Sam is the linebacker. It would have been an easy interception if he went to Cook. He can't lift it over the line because he'll just throw it over Cook's head. He can't throw between Wells and Dahl because that would be well behind Cook, and also an easy interception to the line backer there, and he obviously can't throw through the ref, which still wouldn't be a good throw and would be picked off because it would be behind Cook.

So essentially by the coverage by the defense, where the throwing lane is and to some extend where the ref is, Cook is not an option on that play. If he was to complete it to Cook for the TD it would have to be because the defense was so incredibly stupid they just didn't react and let it happen. Which you obviously can't count on.



The rest of the plays I'll take a look at. Obviously there are places that Sam needs to improve upon, and he has missed a few throws, as does every QB... That last one though it's a misread by Sam. Throwing it to Cook would be the misread.

I don't agree. The forward most LB is taken out of the play by a good throw. Cook has taken the other LB out of the play by crossing his face. All Sam has to do is throw the ball with enough arc to get it over the underneath LB and enough zip that the safety can't get it over in time. The ball would be aimed towards the "C" in the end-zone and likely be around the goal-line. Keep in mind that the ball should be coming out as the picture was taken. There's a clear seam there and a window. Cook was where he was supposed to be and the LB wasn't in good position to defend it.

It's not an easy throw...but it's a throw the great ones can make.
 

Lesson

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Were you able to get a look on the pick 6 that went off DR in Atlanta? If so, was Cook covered on that play or no?
 

jrry32

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DR RAM said:
jrry, we know that you have lost all confidence in Sam, and it seems that you are on a crusade to convince others to do the same. I am not willing to go there with all the other problems on the team. I will not do it, because there are so many factors that we know about, and so many more that we don't know about.

I'm not on any sort of crusade. I came upon this while reviewing and charting film on Tavon Austin. I figured it was worth posting to show some of the issues that have recently been brought up.

And while we can cite the progressions as the issue, I question who makes the choices on the progressions. Are the progressions set by pre-snap reads or are they set by the play? I'd be more than a little disappointed if Schottenheimer had concrete progressions set. I have a hard time believing it.

I have a feeling that Sam is the one who ultimately makes the choice on the progressions...and there are definitely plays where he makes the wrong choice.
 

jrry32

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Lesson said:
Were you able to get a look on the pick 6 that went off DR in Atlanta? If so, was Cook covered on that play or no?

I reviewed that back when it happened. Cook was "open" but he wasn't. The window was tight and there was no throwing lane to get the ball there. It wasn't a throw that could be made. I agreed with him making the safe throw on that play.
 

jrry32

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X said:
I have to disagree with that. He has used a shoulder fake many times, and his anticipation - early on in his career - was stellar. I've seen guys from the NFL break that down specifically and I still have the videos w/their commentary stashed on my computer. This is a new issue with him, IMO, because last year and early this year this wasn't something that appeared to be a problem.

The OL is a dumpster fire. And it was like that against Atlanta too...and Arizona at points. People didn't see it then because the sacks weren't coming as easy. But our interior has been terrible all year...cannot pick-up blitzes to save their lives. Our RT(both Joe and Rodger) have been inconsistent at holding the edge too. We probably should be offering them more help.

Wish we'd see more of Cory Harkey.
 

Lesson

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jrry32 said:
Wish we'd see more of Cory Harkey.

Same here. I'd love to see Harkey in the backfield as a FB, with Cook out wide and Kendricks lined up as a normal TE.
 

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jrry32 said:
X said:
I have to disagree with that. He has used a shoulder fake many times, and his anticipation - early on in his career - was stellar. I've seen guys from the NFL break that down specifically and I still have the videos w/their commentary stashed on my computer. This is a new issue with him, IMO, because last year and early this year this wasn't something that appeared to be a problem.

[hilite]The OL is a dumpster fire. And it was like that against Atlanta too...and Arizona at points. People didn't see it then because the sacks weren't coming as easy. But our interior has been terrible all year...cannot pick-up blitzes to save their lives. Our RT(both Joe and Rodger) have been inconsistent at holding the edge too. We probably should be offering them more help.[/hilite]
Wish we'd see more of Cory Harkey.

This.

Sam, and the play calls were the only reason in the first two games that he didn't get sacked, and he was still getting hit, and pressured. People were giving the offensive line WAY too much credit early on. You're right, they have stunk all year.

Until we fix the offensive line, were fucked. We won't be able see if anyone can play, so it will screw us for next year too, because we won't be able to accurately evaluate what/who works, and what/who doesn't.