Rotoworld Top 4 Wr Prospect Metrics-

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ChrisW

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Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics
Thursday, January 16, 2014



Much will be written about the talent and depth in this year’s wide receiver draft class; it’ll be one of those truisms that gets passed around non-stop. Just looking at the stats of the top tier of WRs shows us that it isn’t just an empty platitude, but rather a statement that has a lot of merit. On average, this year’s class of WRs gained more yards after the catch, dropped fewer balls, and achieved production utilizing a much wider array of talents. I’ll expand on those stats in the piece, but it’s important to note that these stats won’t predict which WR will be better, but explain their production and complement film study.



Where Did They Catch the Ball?



The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.



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- Sammy Watkins’ receptions stick out like a sore thumb. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s watched Clemson that 57% of Watkins’ catches came off screens. We’ll examine his yards after the catch in relation to screens later in the piece, but that doesn’t discount the fact that you’d like to see more than 30% of his receptions come past 6 yards – just for some variation.



- The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans, who was the closest to average among the top tier. Much will be made about Manziel and Evans’ connection and reliance on each other for deep balls. However, we still have to be impressed by the fact that at 6’5” Evans has caught the highest percentage of receptions past 20 yards amongst the top 15 WRs in this class.



- Like Evans, 25% of Benjamin’s receptions came on throws deeper than 20 yards. Benjamin’s receptions are well distributed among the various zones with the exception of screens. He caught 3 screens on the year where he totaled -8 yards. The screen game is not going to be strong for Kelvin at the next level.



- Lee’s receptions are the most stunning, as only 3.5% of his catches (2 receptions) came deeper than 20 yards. He actually dropped more deep passes (3) than he caught. Other than that, we can see the influence of Kiffin’s passing game where the majority of Lee’s receptions came on short passes designed to get yards after the catch.





What Did They Do After They Caught It?



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- As alluded to earlier, Marqise Lee was put in situations where he could catch the ball short and take it for good yardage. His 7.05 yards after the catch is top 5 in the class, although his paltry 3.7 yards after the catch on screens leaves a little something to be desired.



- We can see the effects of Benjamin’s deep receptions as he caught the ball an average of 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, proving to be a solid deep threat. However, his 4.89 yards after the catch is the lowest among the top 15 WRs. That’s not necessarily a problem with a bigger WR as that’s not ‘where he wins’. However, we still have to take that into account when comparing him to other similarly sized WRs.



- Benjamin’s YAC becomes relevant when compared to Evans who averaged 7.63 yards after the catch. His yardage wasn’t just racked up on broken Manziel plays. On screens he averaged 8.92 yards after the catch, displaying an innate shiftiness/burst that he may not always get credit for.



- I was a bit hard on Watkins earlier for his lack of receptions downfield, however we have to be impressed with his YAC. Despite catching 70% of his passes within 5 yards of the LOS, where defenses were keying in on him – he averaged the highest YAC of this class gaining 8.48 yards on average. Most importantly he still averaged a solid 6.1 yards on non-screen passes showing he can get it done all over the field



How Did they Catch the Ball?



The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.



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- When he’s not running screens, Watkins has the most normal distribution of route types. This makes his overall YAC on non-screens all the more impressive because we know he’s not running an excess of routes that lead to exaggerated YAC totals.



- As many have surmised via his tape, nearly 44% of Mike Evans’ catches are from coming back to the QB. Whether that’s on a scramble drill or designed route, that high number of comebacks takes away from his experience running sharp-breaking routes like square outs. Although we must consider Evans’ high YAC as a positive sign despite catching so many comebacks.



- Most interesting here is Benjamin and FSU’s utilization of the go route to take advantage of his height mismatch, nearly doubling the average for that specific type of route.



- Nearly 43% of Marqise Lee’s receptions came on short breaking in/out routes designed to put him in a position to gain yardage after the catch. I’m personally a bit surprised by the lack of post/corner/slants that have seemed to factor more heavily into USC’s past offenses.



How Are Their Hands?



Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play. I won’t provide any commentary since it’s pretty self-explanatory.



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So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in them. Whether you use them to identify problems with a prospect’s hands or examine a WR’s YAC in depth, there is merit if you understand their potential and limitations. That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info I have on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.





http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/peshek-top-4-wr-metrics
 

BonifayRam

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Just doing a quick review IMO ...Evans looks to be the right fit here with the current Ram receivers. With the Rams #13 selection you could expect to see Evans there. However if CB Darqueze Dennard is still there @#13 I would take the CB easy.
 

ChrisW

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Just doing a quick review IMO ...Evans looks to be the right fit here with the current Ram receivers. With the Rams #13 selection you could expect to see Evans there. However if CB Darqueze Dennard is still there @#13 I would take the CB easy.

Mind telling me why you think Evans is the right fit? I'm just curious on how you came up with that conclusion.
 

blackbart

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Just doing a quick review IMO ...Evans looks to be the right fit here with the current Ram receivers. With the Rams #13 selection you could expect to see Evans there. However if CB Darqueze Dennard is still there @#13 I would take the CB easy.
I would agree with this assessment. Evans has the body and the experience to fit with the Rams offense if he can learn the new system. I would not expect any of them to come in and produce right away. I also think Dennard is a talent that would come in and play right away giving us a good set of CBs that can press and tackle both things we need to improve in our secondary.
 

RamsOfCastamere

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Watkins reminds me of Demaryius Thomas, a guy that can make something out of nothing -- it's not Sammy's fault that he wasn't used more in intermediate routes. And Bradford loves to audible to WR screens when he detects a blitz, so Watkins can definitely upgrade that role right away.
 

jrry32

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Interesting. Good to see they updated the stats and only confirms why I'd love the Rams to draft Evans at pick #13.
 

Alan

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Watkins wouldn't get many screen passes playing for the Rams. I would expect Tavon to get the vast majority of those. It also makes me wonder about the real accuracy of his drop rate. I'd think it would be much easier to catch a screen pass than a contested ball down field.
 

jrry32

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Watkins wouldn't get many screen passes playing for the Rams. I would expect Tavon to get the vast majority of those. It also makes me wonder about the real accuracy of his drop rate. I'd think it would be much easier to catch a screen pass than a contested ball down field.

Eh, a contested pass wouldn't really go down as a drop. I'm not really concerned about his drop rate. His hands aren't quite as good as Evans but they're still very good in their own right. He plucks it away from his body naturally and tracks the ball well.
 

ChrisW

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Interesting. Good to see they updated the stats and only confirms why I'd love the Rams to draft Evans at pick #13.

I'll admit to you that I'm warming up to the Evans pick. I want to see his combine numbers to be sure. But, at this point I think we couldn't go wrong with either Watkins or Evans. Both would bring a different dynamic to our offense.
 

Alan

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jrry32 with his observations:
Eh, a contested pass wouldn't really go down as a drop.
The ones I'm thinking about would. One of our own WRs (forget which one CoachO was talking about) seems to have problems (during TC at least) when a defender is waving his arms in an attempt to knock down the pass which temporarily blocks his view. Have to really keep your concentration and some are not that good at it. That would go down as a drop and it happens often.
 

rdlkgliders

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I wish they would have made that comparison with Lee's stats last year when he had 1 QB and was healthy.
 

Sum1

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I think you could make arguments for each guy being the "fit". Just depends what you are trying to accomplish and what you see as the so called "problem".

You could say Sammy Watkins is the perfect fit because he catches shorter to intermediate routes and that is what the Rams offense is set up to do. Making those catches with the ability to get the YAC seems like a perfect.

Or, you could say that the Rams don't have the long ball game so they need Mike Evans in order to get more downfield throws.


Personally, I don't see Mike Evans having the same downfield threat in the NFL that he had in college. I don't think he has the right speed to really do that. Plus, I don't think the Rams passing game focuses going long down field. They have Givens for that purpose. I think the more explosive players you have that can take the short pass the distance the better. I think that will open up your long ball game for Givens...plus with the speed of Austin he can get that occasional wide open run downfield like we saw a couple times (once from Bradford that was called back on a silly tripping penalty, the other from Clemens.).
 

BigRamFan

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^^^ also, Quick seemed, as the season went along, to exhibit the ability to get downfield himself as in the Panther game. It was just that after Sam went down Clemens did not seem to look his way.
 

RamsOfCastamere

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Watkins wouldn't get many screen passes playing for the Rams. I would expect Tavon to get the vast majority of those. It also makes me wonder about the real accuracy of his drop rate. I'd think it would be much easier to catch a screen pass than a contested ball down field.

You don't know that, Tavon and Watkins can get those. You may not have been referring to me, but I was talking about those checkdowns when Austin wasn't on the field that Sammy threw, the ones that many wished were slants, like the pick six against the Falcons.
 

kurtfaulk

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The ones I'm thinking about would. One of our own WRs (forget which one CoachO was talking about) seems to have problems (during TC at least) when a defender is waving his arms in an attempt to knock down the pass which temporarily blocks his view. Have to really keep your concentration and some are not that good at it. That would go down as a drop and it happens often.

i'm guessing that would be quick.

.
 

Alan

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RamsOfCastamere with this:
You don't know that, Tavon and Watkins can get those.

I was referring to the chart that showed Watkins getting 57.43% of his receptions on screen passes. Although talking to you is great too. :wink:

Any WR, RB or TE on the Rams could have their number called to get a screen pass thrown their way but that's the kind of play that Austin is supposed to excel at isn't it. Why not throw the majority of those to someone whose best attribute is running in space?
 

Alan

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kurtfaulk with his SWAG:
i'm guessing that would be quick.
Could be. CoachO might read this and respond to later. I'm pretty sure it's something all WRs have to contend with and it's probably responsible for lots of drops. I know it affected me when I played WR in Tower Grove Park as a yute.