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Rookie Wide Receivers

Discussion in 'RAMS - NFL TALK' started by jrry32, Apr 1, 2014.

  1. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    I thought some might find this information interesting. A lot has been made about the Rams need for a "#1 WR" in the draft because they currently don't have one. Often, people are arguing that Sam needs one to thrive in 2014. I believe this begs the question, is it realistic to expect a rookie to be able to be a #1 WR?

    Another point that has been made is that we have to draft a WR with one of our first round picks or else there's no point because WRs outside the first round won't contribute enough to be #1 WRs. Is this actually true?

    Here is some very interesting data from 2000 to the present.
    Rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs
    1. Mike Williams - 11 TDs (3rd Round Pick)

    Rookie WRs with 1100+ receiving yards
    1. Anquan Boldin - 1377 yards (2nd Round Pick)
    2. Michael Clayton - 1193 yards (1st Round #15 Pick)

    Rookie WRs with 1000 to 1099 receiving yards
    1. A.J. Green - 1057 yards (1st Round #4 Pick)
    2. Keenan Allen - 1046 yards (3rd Round Pick)
    3. Marques Colston - 1038 yards (7th Round Pick)

    Rookie WRs with 900 to 999 receiving yards
    1. Dwayne Bowe - 993 yards (1st Round #23 Pick)
    2. Eddie Royal - 980 yards (2nd Round Pick)
    3. Andre Johnson - 976 yards (1st Round #3 Pick)
    4. Mike Williams - 964 yards (3rd Round Pick)
    5. Julio Jones - 959 yards (1st Round #6 Pick)
    6. DeSean Jackson - 912 yards (2nd Round Pick)

    Rookie WRs with 800 to 899 receiving yards
    1. Chris Chambers - 883 yards (2nd Round Pick)
    2. Justin Blackmon - 865 yards (1st Round #5 Pick)
    3. T.Y. Hilton - 861 yards(3rd Round Pick)
    4. Lee Evans - 843 yards(1st Round #13 Pick)
    5. Torrey Smith - 841 yards (2nd Round Pick)
    6. Santonio Holmes - 824 yards(1st Round #25 Pick)
    7. Roy Williams - 817 yards (1st Round #7 Pick)
    8. Josh Gordon - 805 yards (2nd Round Pick)
    9. DeAndre Hopkins - 802 yards (1st Round #27 Pick)

    That's 20 total players. Of the 20, 10 are first rounders(50%). But only 2 of the 5 1000+ yard WRs are first rounders(40%). Of the 20, 5 are top 10 picks(25%). Of the 20, 6 are second round picks(30%). Of the 20, 4 were drafted in the third round or later(20%).

    800 yards is not a #1 WR benchmark. It's more of a #2 WR benchmark. So I'd say the expectation that a rookie will come in and be our immediate #1 WR is probably unrealistic. Being a solid #2 WR is a more realistic expectation from a highly drafted rookie.

    In fact, over the last 50 years, only 3 rookie WRs managed to put up 1000+ yards AND 10+ TDs. They were Randy Moss of the Vikings, Bullet Bob Hayes of the Cowboys, and John Jefferson of the San Diego Chargers.

    Yes, I know there's a big name missing from the list. Calvin Johnson put up 756 yards as a rookie WR in Detroit.

    I'd also say that it's fair to conclude that there will be options outside of the top 15 picks and even the first round this year that can contribute similarly to the top drafted WRs as rookies.
     
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  2. iced Well-Known Member

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    except when you're drafting a #1 receiver, you're not just drafting for next year but for the next SEVERAL years.

    If you don't have one on your team and if there's one in the draft that you believe can be one - then you take him.
     
    #2
  3. jjab360 Well-Known Member

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    Meh, they're not franchise QBs, you don't have to have one. If there's a receiver you think could be a "no.1" receiver, but there's a player at another position you think is more talented, you take the more talented player.
     
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  4. iced Well-Known Member

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    Who's more talented?

    I want players who performed on game day - not the combine. The only one that jumps out more is Clowney - and there's no guarantee he doesn't go #1 or if we don't trade the pick for him.
     
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  5. jjab360 Well-Known Member

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    I assume you mean more talented than Watkins? If so I'd say Clowney, Robinson, Matthews, and Mack. I'd put him in the tier below with Dennard, Donald, Evans, and Mosley.
     
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  6. Mojo Ram On double secret probation

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    Good stuff Jrry.
     
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  7. iced Well-Known Member

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    I'll give you Clowney, I'd say on Parr with Matthews, but no way with Robinson. Robinson was not even the top LT Pre-combine - since then it's been all hype and more what he did in gym shorts vs game tape. Mack is gonna be a good player but I just don't see him as even a possibility for us. He's more a 3-4 OLB
     
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  8. RamsOfCastamere Well-Known Member

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    That's just their rookie season, I would like to see stats from a career standpoint. I've pulled every first round pick since 98. Justification can be made for or against the OP's position. Someone else should pull the first round OTs. Jrry, I don't know how you do this so often, this took forever, woo!

    '98
    116Kevin DysonWRUtahTennessee Oilers
    121Randy MossWRMarshallMinnesota Vikings
    130Marcus NashWRTennesseeDenver Broncos

    '99
    16Torry HoltWRNorth Carolina StateSt. Louis Rams
    18David BostonWROhio StateArizona Cardinals
    113Troy EdwardsWRLouisiana TechPittsburgh Steelers

    '00
    14Peter WarrickWRFlorida StateCincinnati Bengals
    18Plaxico BurressWRMichigan StatePittsburgh Steelers
    110Travis TaylorWRFloridaBaltimore Ravens
    121Sylvester MorrisWRJackson StateKansas City Chiefs
    129R.Jay SowardWRUSCJacksonville Jaguars

    '01
    18David TerrellWRMichiganChicago Bears
    19Koren RobinsonWRNorth Carolina StateSeattle Seahawks
    115Rod GardnerWRClemsonWashington Redskins
    116Santana MossWRMiami (Fla.)New York Jets
    125Freddie MitchellWRUCLAPhiladelphia Eagles
    130Reggie WayneWRMiami (Fla.)Indianapolis Colts

    '02
    113Donte' StallworthWRTennesseeNew Orleans Saints
    119Ashley LelieWRHawaiiDenver Broncos
    120Javon WalkerWRFlorida StateGreen Bay Packers

    '03
    12Charles RogersWRMichigan StateDetroit Lions
    13Andre JohnsonWRMiami (Fla.)Houston Texans
    117Bryant JohnsonWRPenn StateArizona Cardinals

    '04
    13Larry FitzgeraldWRPittsburghArizona Cardinals
    17Roy WilliamsWRTexasDetroit Lions
    19Reggie WilliamsWRWashingtonJacksonville Jaguars
    113Lee EvansWRWisconsinBuffalo Bills
    115Michael Clayton
    WRLouisiana StateTampa Bay Buccaneers
    129Michael JenkinsWROhio StateAtlanta Falcons
    131Rashaun WoodsWROklahoma StateSan Francisco 49ers

    '05
    13Braylon EdwardsWRMichiganCleveland Browns
    17Troy WilliamsonWRSouth CarolinaMinnesota Vikings
    110Mike WilliamsWRUSCDetroit Lions
    121Matt JonesWRArkansasJacksonville Jaguars
    122Mark ClaytonWROklahomaBaltimore Ravens
    127Roddy WhiteWRAlabama-BirminghamAtlanta Falcons

    '06
    125Santonio HolmesWROhio StatePittsburgh Steelers

    '07
    12Calvin JohnsonWRGeorgia TechDetroit Lions
    19Ted Ginn Jr.WROhio StateMiami Dolphins
    123Dwayne BoweWRLouisiana StateKansas City Chiefs
    127Robert MeachemWRTennesseeNew Orleans Saints
    130Craig DavisWRLouisiana StateSan Diego Chargers
    132Anthony GonzalezWROhio StateIndianapolis Colts

    '09
    17Darrius Heyward-BeyWRMarylandOakland Raiders
    110Michael CrabtreeWRTexas TechSan Francisco 49ers
    119Jeremy MaclinWRMissouriPhiladelphia Eagles
    122Percy HarvinWRFloridaMinnesota Vikings
    129Hakeem NicksWRNorth CarolinaNew York Giants
    130Kenny BrittWRRutgersTennessee Titans

    '10
    122Demaryius ThomasWRGeorgia TechDenver Broncos
    124Dez BryantWROklahoma StateDallas Cowboys

    '11
    14A.J. GreenWRGeorgiaCincinnati Bengals
    16Julio JonesWRAlabamaAtlanta Falcons
    126Jonathan BaldwinWRPittsburghKansas City Chiefs

    '12
    15Justin BlackmonWROklahoma StateJacksonville Jaguars
    113Michael FloydWRNotre DameArizona Cardinals
    120Kendall WrightWRBaylorTennessee Titans
    130A.J. JenkinsWRIllinoisSan Francisco 49ers

    '13
    18Tavon AustinWRWest VirginiaSt. Louis Rams
    127DeAndre HopkinsWRClemsonHouston Texans
    129Cordarrelle PattersonWRTennesseeMinnesota Vikings
     
    #8
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  9. jjab360 Well-Known Member

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    You're wrong about Robinson but I doubt there's anything I could say to change your mind. I'll just say that I've seen when players get overhyped because of impressive workouts, but this isn't one of those times. In this case the numbers just back up what you see on the field, the kid is a dominating presence with absolutely no physical limitations.
     
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  10. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    And I agree with the logic. But that's rarely the logic presented.

    If Watkins is at the top of my board, I take him. If he's not, I don't. But the odds that he's a #1 caliber WR as a rookie just aren't high. He can certainly be a contributor but anyone expecting Randy Moss out of the kid is being unrealistic imo.

    My point wasn't to say that drafting WRs in the first is a bad idea. Only the expectation that we should draft a WR this year because we need a #1 WR in 2014. And the expectation that we can only draft a WR in round 1 or else it's a waste.
     
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  11. iced Well-Known Member

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    which is fine - but is there one on the roster now? or going to be in 3,4 years? I don't think so - especially with the player he could be in a few years.

    just gonna have to agree to disagree my friend - if I'm looking at a LT as a top prospect, I don't want a question mark next to pass pro
     
    #11
  12. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Frankly, I don't care if there's one on the roster right now. This isn't like a QB. A #1 WR doesn't make or break a team. I'm going to draft for value.
     
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  13. iced Well-Known Member

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    except that outside tavon austin, we haven't really seen anyone who would really be worth a starting roster spot. None of these guys have shown the ability to consistently separate, catch, and make plays. If any one of our receivers were to leave in free agency, none of them would end up as a starter.

    This team doesn't have to have a Calvin Johnson - but better believe Sammy needs a go to guy he can rely on; especially a playmaker type.
     
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  14. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he does. I think with protection and a decent running game, all he needs are WRs that aren't going to drop ridiculous number of passes and commit a bunch of mental mistakes.
     
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  15. iced Well-Known Member

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    and receivers that can consistently get open, separate, etc....
     
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  16. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Yea, that's really not an issue if the QB is protected and there is a decent running game to work off of. Our WRs/TEs aren't concrete footed, out of shape, middle aged men. If Bradford has time, he'll find an open man. That was proven to me last year.
     
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  17. Rams and Gators Well-Known Member Pit Boss

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    Knew we should have drafted Keenan Allen :cry:
     
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  18. Mojo Ram On double secret probation

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    I liked him too. Its written down somewhere. (y)
     
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  19. max Well-Known Member

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    Therein lies the difference in approach. Some teams believe in the WR1 approach, some don't. Teams have won the SB both ways. So I agree, a #1 WR doesn't make or break a team.

    This brain trust targets a player or 2 and moves in the draft to where they expect them to go. If they were targeting Watkins, I doubt they would be advertizing the sale of the pick. And now that they've signed Britt, I don't see them drafting Evans either.

    Right now, the Rams have a lot more talent at WR than the SB champs. What we don't have is their talent on defense.
     
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  20. Alan Well-Known Member

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    I disagree with your whole contention. That's a statement that could be made for so many positions. LT being just one of them. I would have less problem with that had you been talking about all elite players and not just WRs. I like that fact that you said "if you don't have one" but then that goes against your whole drafting for the future philosophy.

    Like everything else in life, it's all about trade offs and compromises. It's not all about one position, it's about building a team for now and in the future IMO.
     
    #20
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