Robinson must be reeeeeeaaaaaally far behind, because...

[blue4]

No, it's not. When you're drafting in a league where around 40% of the first round picks are busts and that number only increases as the rounds go by, hitting on your picks consistently...even if you have to develop them...is NOT a losing proposition.

Go look at the best teams in the NFL. They don't hit on 100% of their picks. They just hit on the majority. If you do that, you'll be competitive. Because you can replace the players you can't pay with guys you've been developing. That's what the good teams do.

I think you just made his argument for him. Isn't he saying that drafting potential over more polished proven players is a mistake because of the high bust rate in the upper 1sr round? There's plenty of evidence to support both methods of drafting. Robert Quinn for potential and Chris Long for polished just on our team alone.

 

[jrry32]

I think you just made his argument for him. Isn't he saying that drafting potential over more polished proven players is a mistake because of the high bust rate in the upper 1sr round? There's plenty of evidence to support both methods of drafting. Robert Quinn for potential and Chris Long for polished just on our team alone.

No, that's not it. And I don't think that's a particularly good argument either. He's saying that players that need development give you less bang for your buck on the cheap contract which hurts you in the long run(and isn't successful in the long run)...even if they're successful.

 

[blue4]

No, that's not it. And I don't think that's a particularly good argument either. He's saying that players that need development give you less bang for your buck on the cheap contract which hurts you in the long run(and isn't successful in the long run)...even if they're successful.

The part you quoted stated,
"Investing high picks or big bucks on developmental players is likely to be a losing proposition in the long run."
After which he talked about contracts. Then you talked about the high percentage of busts and how the successful teams are the ones who hit the most. To me, it sounds like two different ways to say the same point. It may not be what either of you intended, but that's the way I interpreted it.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Top two draft selections who are non-QBs typically play early. Unlike the Rams, teams with top two draft selections typically have talent depleted rosters have earned those choices by their records.

Some rookies start immediately due to talent and skill. Some rookies start immediately due to a lack of alternatives and coaching philosophy.

Some coaches believe in a trial by fire method and play their top picks ready or not. Other coaches prefer not to hurt the team or a young players confidence if he isn't ready.

In the end, the 2014 draft is not just about the 2014 season (and especially not just about the first half of this season).

A player starting/playing early and having a positive impact/playing well are two different things altogether.

Chances are that seniors are going to be ready faster than red-shirt sophomores, but it's not how you one starts, but how one develops and finishes that determines the better draft choice. In 2012 Givens looked a whole lot better than Quick, but today..............

 

[blue4]

I really hope Quick continues his great first 4 games. Because a lot of ROD analogies are going to go down in flames if he doesn't. Please notice the blue font.

The guy needs to play. Our pass protection is already bad, and our run game needs some oomph. SF is going to be a challenge whomever plays between him and Joesph, and we need to match SF's running game. I think we all want his success. We need it.

 

[12intheBox]

Have patience with him - and the staff as well.

I'm sure they are just as antsy to get him going as we are - but putting him in before he is ready is counter productive. As others have stated, the draft is about the long term future - I would rather have the better player in years 3 - 10 than games 1-4.

 

[blue4]

Have patience with him - and the staff as well.

I'm sure they are just as antsy to get him going as we are - but putting him in before he is ready is counter productive. As others have stated, the draft is about the long term future - I would rather have the better player in years 3 - 10 than games 1-4.

I have patience with the staff, more than some I know.

I agree to a point. There comes a time though when just sitting and not doing becomes counter productive. The point of the season where coaches have time to work with fundamentals is passing anyway. How much more can he learn now sitting vs doing? I don't think 20-25 snaps is going to make much of a negative impact, and could make a very positive one in the run game and play-action.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Davin Joseph has been terrible. If Robinson is not an upgrade at this stage in his career I am disappointed. I would expect the second pick overall to at least be better than terrible, even if he is a bit raw.

If Robinsons confidence is so fragile to not be able to handle some failure or disappointment them I am frustrated. But I don't think that is the case.

 

[12intheBox]

I have patience with the staff, more than some I know.

I agree to a point. There comes a time though when just sitting and not doing becomes counter productive. The point of the season where coaches have time to work with fundamentals is passing anyway. How much more can he learn now sitting vs doing? I don't think 20-25 snaps is going to make much of a negative impact, and could make a very positive one in the run game and play-action.

But we also need to step back and realize that we are fans sitting in our living rooms and they are coaches with years of experience who are on the field in practice and in the room for film study. We just don't have the information that they have - and to second guess their decision with the fraction of information that we do have is a bit unfair.

We don't know how many reps he is getting in practice - we don't know how close he is to having his assignments down - we don't know how much individual attention they are giving him (although I would guess quite a bit).

The point is, we just don't know.

I'm anxious to see him - really, really anxious. And I hope that what happens is that he starts, he completely dominates, and fans everywhere complain that if only Fisher had unleashed him earlier, we might be 4-0 right now instead of 1-3. But we know the Rams value his services - they turned down a good trade down offer and lots of really talented players to take him at #2. We know that they wanted to put him directly into a starting roll - and we should know that they will get him out there as soon as they feel he gives us the best shot to win. Thats good enough for now.

What this doesn't mean is that he wasn't a good pick, or that they aren't good coaches, or anything else along those lines. A hard position to learn for a very young and raw talent - lets just hope that he blossoms.

 

[blue4]

But we also need to step back and realize that we are fans sitting in our living rooms and they are coaches with years of experience who are on the field in practice and in the room for film study. We just don't have the information that they have - and to second guess their decision with the fraction of information that we do have is a bit unfair.

We don't know how many reps he is getting in practice - we don't know how close he is to having his assignments down - we don't know how much individual attention they are giving him (although I would guess quite a bit).

The point is, we just don't know.

I'm anxious to see him - really, really anxious. And I hope that what happens is that he starts, he completely dominates, and fans everywhere complain that if only Fisher had unleashed him earlier, we might be 4-0 right now instead of 1-3. But we know the Rams value his services - they turned down a good trade down offer and lots of really talented players to take him at #2. We know that they wanted to put him directly into a starting roll - and we should know that they will get him out there as soon as they feel he gives us the best shot to win. Thats good enough for now.

What this doesn't mean is that he wasn't a good pick, or that they aren't good coaches, or anything else along those lines. A hard position to learn for a very young and raw talent - lets just hope that he blossoms.

It's not often that I really disagree with coaches. I may quibble like any fan, but not to the point that I am in serious second guess mode. And I think to be a true Ram fan you need some patience, lol. But in this case, I really think there can be too much caution. A QB, I agree with you 110%. But half of a gameplan at LG? This is just one of those instances where I don't think the staff is correct. It happens.

 

[RamzFanz]

Davin Joseph has been terrible. If Robinson is not an upgrade at this stage in his career I am disappointed. I would expect the second pick overall to at least be better than terrible, even if he is a bit raw.

If Robinsons confidence is so fragile to not be able to handle some failure or disappointment them I am frustrated. But I don't think that is the case.

If he can't start or at least play on running downs, I'm very dissapointed too.

It's time. If there were any game we needed him, this is it. Niners are very hard to run against. Joseph sucks. They aren't preparing for Robinson so there is an element of surprise. Man, I hope he's ready and they start him.

 

[12intheBox]

It's not often that I really disagree with coaches. I may quibble like any fan, but not to the point that I am in serious second guess mode. And I think to be a true Ram fan you need some patience, lol. But in this case, I really think there can be too much caution. A QB, I agree with you 110%. But half of a gameplan at LG? This is just one of those instances where I don't think the staff is correct. It happens.

I wasn't trying to direct any "lecture" towards you personally. More than anything - I'm talking to myself. I'm right there with you in thinking that it should be time - that there has to be at least a limited package (jumbo) where we can let this kid eat. But I have to remind myself that I'm just too far away from the action to actually believe that I know when his time has come.

One thing has always hit me as odd though - if he isn't ready to take the field, then how can he be a serviceable 6th man? If someone goes down, it's not like he is all of a sudden "ready to play".

I suppose they think he hasn't been the best option in his current learning curve but even as limited as he has been, he is still better thank throwing Person out there.

 

[Zaphod]

I just don't like this rationale. It's not two seasons of nothing. It's two seasons of development. Which is the point of limiting rookie contracts with caps. You lessen the financial risk with busts and you lessen the financial burden for teams with players that need development. By having those rookie caps, you allow a greater percentage of the salary cap money to be spent on veterans who earned it. We get Brian Quick on a cheap deal while we develop him and then pay him when he earns it.

I think some of you aren't looking at this in the proper context. The choice isn't A) get an immediate impact player that turns into a stud or B) get a player that develops into a stud a couple years down the road. It's more of a percentage breakdown. I actually just ran the numbers out of curiosity, for the players drafted in the first round from 2000 to 2004(did this so the final class would have a decade in the league so there was no question about what a guy developed into) the percentage breakdown is:
15% are immediate impact players that develop into studs
15% are not immediate impact players that develop into studs
15% are immediate impact players that develop into starters(but not studs)
15% are not immediate impact players that develop into starters(but not studs)
40% are busts

So I'm not going to complain if it takes a guy 2-3 years to develop into a stud or even a quality starter because he could have very well been a bust. And that's ONLY looking at FIRST ROUND PICKS over that 5 year period.

You really hit the nail on the head with this post.

40% are busts. another 30% are starters but not studs. So that's basically 70% of the draft that is over-hyped every year.

Only 15% actually live up to the hype right away. With the rookie caps, because of the lesser financial impact, I think you'll see more teams being patient with younger players, which should have a positive impact on more young players overall.

 

[Zaphod]

One thing has always hit me as odd though - if he isn't ready to take the field, then how can he be a serviceable 6th man? If someone goes down, it's not like he is all of a sudden "ready to play".

That's actually a great question. To which, my answer is that if I'm the coach, and I'm now using Robinson in the line-up at either guard or tackle, depending on who's injured, I'm adjusting my game plan to fit what I know he knows.

I know which plays I'm likely to see success with him at which position against which defenses. My guess, is that Fisher/Boudreau/Shottenheimer actually like the options they've had with Joseph at guard up to now. But I can't blame them considering the success we've seen out of this offense so far.

 

[jrry32]

If he can't start or at least play on running downs, I'm very dissapointed too.

It's time. If there were any game we needed him, this is it. Niners are very hard to run against. Joseph sucks. They aren't preparing for Robinson so there is an element of surprise. Man, I hope he's ready and they start him.

The Rams aren't going to only put him in on running downs. That tips your hand. That's the last thing you want as an offense.

 

[RamzFanz]

The Rams aren't going to only put him in on running downs. That tips your hand. That's the last thing you want as an offense.

And it can also be used to deceive the opponent. I meant typical running down, not actual running plays.

 

[jrry32]

And it can also be used to deceive the opponent. I meant typical running down, not actual running plays.

If the Rams trusted him fully, I have to think he'd be starting. So I just don't see it happening. But it is possible if they want to get his feet wet that they could rotate him and Joseph in and out. Just don't see them throwing him out there in running situations if they don't trust him in pass pro. If it's a playbook thing, I could see him being rotated in packages where he's comfortable.