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Ranking true No. 1 pass-catchers

Discussion in 'RAMS - NFL TALK' started by RFIP, Apr 8, 2014.

  1. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    No. You notice that I had both speed WRs and possession WRs on my #1 WR list, right? That's comparable to speed and power HBs.

    If you want to use HBs as a comparison. A guy like Darren Sproles would be an appropriate comparison for Welker.

    Speed and power HBs do the exact same things. They just have different styles to it.

    It depends. What causes him to perform average/below average in the slot? What limitations does he have?

    Stats are stats. I don't evaluate stats, I evaluate players. I place heavy emphasis on limitations.
     
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  2. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Welker definitely helps his team. I've got nothing against slot WRs. My point is that I'm not taking Welker over a true #1 WR.
     
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  3. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    I hear you to an extent because obviously the true upper tier guys are better but Michael Crabtree andjordy Nelson are on that list...even Alshon Jeffery who don't get me wrong had a very good year but he was playing against teams second best corners and only succeeded 1 year so far...You don't have to call welker a number one but he is more of an impact player than them
     
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  4. Memphis Ram Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. If you haven't noticed, I'm one of the biggest proponents of a team not needing a true #1 WR to be successful on offense. However, this discussion is about #1 WR and that's where I'm basing my views.
     
    #84
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  5. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    Fair. I misunderstood than
     
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  6. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Disagree. Strongly.
     
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  7. tbux Well-Known Member

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    you disagree Welker isn't more of an impact player than Jeffrey and Crabtree ? REALLY? WOW
     
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  8. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    Im not sure why. You seem to be putting measurables and potential ahead of on field production.

    Since 2007 (7 year span) Welker had 745 catches 8,237 yds and 47 tds.. for an average of (per year) 107 catches 1,177 yds and 7 tds.

    In comparison, Crabtree (over his 5 year career) has had 279 catches 3,629 yds and 22 tds for a per year average of 56 catches 725 yds and 4 tds

    Jordy nelson has had 2 really good years and Alshon only 1..if Alshon remains at this level you'll get no argument from me but that is something that Welker has already proven and these two haven't so i give the nod to him.

    I completely understand your point about welkers limitations but they don't seem to be limiting his production. IMO the measurables and cookie cutter molds are fine and dandy but at the end of the day he's playing the WR position and putting up #1 type numbers. I can't discredit that just because of his size or speed or limitations, he's still getting his job done better than nearly everyone else that plays the WR position in the nfl
     
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  9. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Julian Edelman - 105 catches, 1056 yards, and 6 TDs in 2013

    You think that Brady guy had something to do with the numbers Edelman and Welker put up? Put Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Crabtree RIGHT NOW on the Patriots and you don't think they'd produce at a ridiculously high level?

    And the BIGGEST flaw in your argument is that you're trying to compare Welker in his prime vs. these other WRs before they've gotten there.

    At the end of the day, I don't care about fantasy football. I don't care about stats. I care about players. And give me Alshon, Jordy, and Crabtree over Welker. Easily.
     
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  10. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely.
    Wes Welker's average year as a Patriot - 112 catches, 1243 yards, and 6 TDs
    Julian Edelman's first year in Welker's role - 105 catches, 1056 yards, and 6 TDs

    I happen to think that Brady guy played a pretty large role in Welker's production. I also happen to think that while Julian Edelman is a good slot WR, he's nothing special.

    Alshon Jeffery? Look at what he did in his second year with Jay Cutler and Josh McCown. What do you think Jeffery would do with Tom Brady?

    Michael Crabtree? In the 11 games in 2012(counting the playoffs) after Kaepernick took over, Crabtree had 66 catches, 950 yards, and 9 TDs. Extrapolated over 16 games, that's 96 catches, 1382 yards, and 13 TDs. That's with KAEPERNICK. What do you think a healthy Crabtree could do with Brady?

    I respect Welker. But no, I don't think Welker is some incredible WR because of the stats he put up. I think the guy is a great slot WR that ended up in the perfect situation in order to produce.

    And it just so happens that Julian Edelman stepped into his role and put up ONLY slightly lesser production. That speaks volumes.

    It's why I don't think production is the end all be all for judging players.
     
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  11. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    I compared Welkers entire career as a starter (7years) to Crabtrees entire career (5 years). The other two I gave credit where credit was due, but they need to prove it. You're trying to compare future projections to reality.

    And as far as the patriots argument thats a slippery slope my friend. Do I think Brady had something to do with Welkers success? Absofreakinglutely. Do you think that Rodgers guy (arguably THE best qb RIGHT NOW) and the Packers offense had something to do with Jordy Nelson? Wasn't Greg Jennings drawing a lot of the attention during Nelson's breakout year? Do you think Brandon Marshall drawing a lot of attention opposite of Alshon plus the fact there was a very limited scouting report on him (seeing as he was a rookie) had something to do with his success?

    Crabtree over Welker?? I can't even take that seriously.

    We can go back and forth pointing to reasons why this player had success or that player had success but the FACTS remain. Welker has been a more dominant player for a longer period of time than any of those players.
     
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  12. RamsFan14 Well-Known Member

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    ^They'd probably produce at a high level, but it would be in a different way then Welker. Welker is good at what he does, getting open quick and reading defenses quickly. He's not the most talented, but he's very quick, pretty solid hands, and he's very smart. I'd take his brain and quickness over any of those guys you named IN THE SLOT!!! Outside, yea I agree those guys are better. But I wouldn't put any of those guys in the slot before Welker, Welker was a one of a kind in the slot. Slot is different then playing outside, which is tougher or w/e, idk and idc, I care about production. If you produce, you're good in my book. Same argument I say for the different running backs, idc what type of running back you are as long as you play at a high level and the production shows.
     
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  13. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Welker has been in the league for 10 years. And I'm trying to compare PRESENT TO PRESENT. You're the one going back 5 to 7 years.

    Alshon and Jordy have proven it to me. Same with Crabtree.

    Absolutely. Yes. But the thing is that in the last two full seasons Nelson has played, he's been better than Welker imo.

    And lets not get into the drawing attention discussion when Welker has played with Moss, Gronkowski, Hernandez, DeMaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas. You're splitting hairs there.

    Alshon was not a rookie. And limited scouting reports don't much matter when the guys making plays like these:
    [​IMG]
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    And now Welker is a 32 year old slot WR. So you're going to have to excuse me if I choose to ignore what the "facts" say.
     
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  14. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    They'd produce outside, probably score a lot of TDs, and New England could put a Julian Edelman in the slot who would still produce inside.

    Welker is a great slot WR. Always has been. But slot guys just aren't that hard to find. And they tend to be a product of the offense and QB to large extent. You think Welker would be putting up 100+ catches in San Francisco from 2007 to 2012?

    Yes, I agree, I would take his brain and quickness. But those other guys have the size and athleticism that Welker simply doesn't have which has prevented him from being the same player on the outside that he is on the inside.

    I see Welker as a lot like Wayne Chrebet. Chrebet was a good WR for the Jets before slot WRs became major parts of the offenses. But because of his limitations, he was never the elite #1 difference-maker. Lets say Chrebet comes into the NFL 12-15 years later, the guy probably could have been a 100 catch type out of the slot...especially in New England.

    That's my issue with Welker. I think if he had to play outside, he'd be a solid/good #2. The guy was an elite SLOT WR...but he's not what I'd call a #1 WR.
     
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  15. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    I am comparing present to present. I didn't pick a season 7 years ago and you know that. I was using the entirety of their body of work which included LAST season.


    We can fairly compare the past 3 years since Welker missed time in 2013 (13 games played) and Nelson missed time in 2012 (12 games played)

    Wes Welker: 313 receptions 3701 yards 25 tds
    Jordy Nelson: 202 receptions 3322 yards 30 tds

    Nelson had 5 more tds but Welker had 111 more catches 379 more yards.. Welker was more productive.

    And I agree the attention argument is splitting hairs I merely brought it up to show there are always multiple factors that go into a guys success such as qb play and surrounding cast. Leaving the brady argument pretty moot.

    If you're trying to argue that Nelson and Jeffery have more potential going forward thats fine they are younger and will likely be in the league longer. But truth is neither of us know what the future holds. Im arguing that Welker has been more productive and more of an impact player.

    I truly think the #1 wr label is ridiculous. You say "if he had to line up outside he'd be a #2" but the fact is he doesn't have to lineup outside, he stays inside and DOMINATES. If a guy is going to put up huge numbers and help your team win, do you really care where he lines up?
     
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  16. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    Wayne Chrebet? really? why because they are both small and white? because thats really where the comparison ends. All that nonsense about 12-15 years later is neither here nor there, thats not what happened. Welker is not a product of the changing slot position, welker changed the slot position.

    Wayne Chrebet career : 104 games started 580 catches 7,365 yds 41 tds
    Wes Welker career (fewer games not to mention he's still going strong) : 94 games started 841 catches 9,358 yds 48 tds.

    Recap: in 10 fewer starts (with a few more productive years still to come) Welker blows him away in every category 260 more Rec's 1993 more yards and 7 more tds...

    There is no comparison in anyway shape or form. Welker is already the better player BY FAR and he's not even done yet..
     
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  17. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    If the extent of your analysis is comparing stats while ignoring any thing football related(context), you might as well just spare us both the time. Because that doesn't get anywhere with me. I'm quite capable of reading a box score.

    Why are they comparable? Because both were undersized players that lacked top-end speed but were incredibly quick, tough, smart, and known for doing the "dirty work".

    In Chrebet's 8 years as a starter with the Jets before injuries derailed his career(1995-2002), the Jets had ZERO QBs throw for 4000+ yards. They had ZERO TDs throw for 30+ TDs. They had THREE SEASONS where their QBs threw for 3000+ yards(Testeverde 2x and Pennington). Teams also didn't prominently feature or use slot WRs back then.

    In Welker's 7 years as a starter with the Patriots and Broncos, his QB threw for 4000+ yards 5x, 4800+ yards 4x, and 5000+ yards 2x(Brady and Manning).

    That should explain why there might be a difference in stats between the guy whose BEST QBs were Pennington and Testeverde and the guy whose QBs were Manning and Brady. That should explain why there might be a difference in stats between the guy whose QB threw for 3000+ yards less than HALF the years he was a starter and the guy who QB threw for 4800+ yards OVER HALF the years he was a starter.

    Yea, there's a good reason to look beyond what the pure numbers tell you.

    But lets continue with the numbers and go a step beyond your analysis. Wes Welker's 7 years in NE and Denver:
    745 catches, 8237 yards, and 47 TDs

    Denver and NE's combined passing stats over that time:
    2728 completions, 32884 yards, and 264 TDs

    Welker's Percentages are:
    27.3% of completions, 25.0% of yards, and 17.8% of TDs

    Wayne Chrebet's 8 years in NYJ:
    507 catches, 6526 yards, and 39 TDs

    The Jets combined passing stats over that time:
    2531 completions, 28141 yards, and 182 TDs

    Chrebet's Percentages are:
    20.0% of completions, 23.2% of yards, and 21.4% of TDs

    So not nearly as far as off as you've made it seem. Welker is significantly better in the % of completion(7.3%) while Chrebet has a decided edge in % of TDs(3.6%). Welker has the edge in % of yards(1.8%). And that's ignoring what I've already stated earlier about Chrebet not being used the way he could have been 12-15 years later because he had to play outside...instead of being used in the slot where his skill-set was maximized like Welker was.

    Yea, I think it's a pretty fair point to make.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 11, 2014
  18. jrry32 Well-Known Member

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    Lol no. That was a good try on the Brady point. Gotta give you that. ;)

    And yes, I do care where he lines up. Do you care where an OL lines up? Do you value a LT over a LG?

    As far as Nelson was concerned, he wasn't healthy in 2012. It's not comparable. He was playing through a severe hamstring injury that never healed. Welker sat out games with a concussion. If you watched Nelson in 2013 and 2011, it's pretty darn clear he's a better WR now than Welker.

    Prior to Nelson's injury in 2012, he had 40 catches, 532 yards, and 5 TDs in 7 games. That's 91 catches, 1216 yards, and 11 TDs over 16 games.
     
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  19. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    This is all hypothetical and your opinion of what could have been. Sure, lots of guys could have been better had they played on better teams or with better qbs that is not a profound thought. I like to focus on things that actually happened.

    Peyton and Brady are much better than Pennington and Testeverde, okay? sucks for Chrebet, doesn't make him comparable to Welker. Welker has had a significantly better career in fewer games no? He's still not done so these margins will only get bigger. Similar attributes, sure. But what the hell does that matter? Its almost like you're faulting Welker for having good qbs by negating what he has done and comparing him to some forgettable nobody. Your comparison has absolutely 0 merit unless you include the stipulation "maybe Chrebet could have been somewhere in the realm of Welker had he played with better qbs" maybe he coulda been, maybe not but as it stands there is nothing to justify them even being anywhere close to the same level.
     
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  20. NJRamsFan Cocaine Cowboy

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    Ill address this in order.

    1) A good try? its not really a try but rather a fact. Do you disagree with what i said? that "there are always multiple factors that go into a guys success such as qb play and surrounding cast" The brady point is moot because one of the guys you're defending has Aaron Rodgers as his qb...who last time i checked was no slouch.

    2) The offensive line comparison is a huge stretch. If one of my Wr's has 10 catches for 100 yards and a score should that count less because he lined up inside? To me that says he was consistently able to get separation, made his catches and was a big part of the teams success. I don't care if he lines up in the backfield.

    3) How is that not a fair comparison? Welker wasnt healthy in 2013 just as Nelson wasn't in 2012, its been well documented just how severely concusions impact players so its safe to say Welker wasn't healthy either. Its not a fair comparison because the numbers don't support what you are saying. You can't simply omit something because it doesn't support your claim. Out of the past 3 years they both had 2 healthy seasons and 1 where they played 12 and 13 games respectively, and Welker was more productive during that span. These are the facts, not what I think was going to happen or might have happened if this or that.

    4) Once again, those are hypothetical numbers that he didn't reach in 2012 he was off to a good start sad that he got hurt but he did...lets focus on what actually happened
     
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