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Ranking the top 25 potential NFL free agents for 2019
The 2018 NFL free-agent market is one week old, and already most of the top players are spoken for. As of Wednesday morning, nearly 80 of our top 100 free agents had signed contracts or agreed to terms. Naturally, then, it's time to turn the page and look ahead to ... the 2019 market.
It's not easy to project the makeup of next year's class knowing that some players will sign early contract extensions and others will receive the franchise tag. But the future market grew in relevance when quarterback Kirk Cousins and cornerback Trumaine Johnson signed massive deals last week after fending off early extension offers and previous franchise tags.
What follows is a ranking of the top 25 players whose contracts will expire after this season. Will any of them follow the Cousins-Johnson example? Consider this the first installment in a yearlong evolution of the 2019 class.
Note: Ages listed as heading into the 2019 season.
1. Matt Ryan, QB
Current team: Atlanta Falcons | Age entering 2019 season: 34
It's widely assumed that the Falcons will retain Ryan, even if it hurts -- much as their division foes in New Orleans have done for years with Drew Brees. That would mean a massive extension in the next 11 months, one that surpasses Cousins' $28 million annual average and possibly his $84 million in full guarantees as well. Cousins was entering his age-30 season when he hit free agency, but teams would still fall over themselves to sign a 34-year-old Ryan if they had a chance.
2. Aaron Donald, DT
Team: Los Angeles Rams | 2019 age: 28
The 2017 Defensive Player of the Year held out last summer in hopes of a new deal. He didn't get one and is set to play in 2018 on a fifth-year option worth $6.892 million. Now the Rams will try to get him signed ahead of his contract expiration. Will they face consequences for their too-low offers last year?
3. Khalil Mack, DE/LB
Team: Oakland Raiders | 2019 age: 28
Mack is set to play this season on a $13.846 million fifth-year option. Other than quarterbacks, there are no positions more pursued in the market than edge rushers. (Note that not a single dominant rusher actually hit the market in 2018.) Mack is a two-time All-Pro, was the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and has 36.5 sacks over the past three seasons.
4. Odell Beckham Jr., WR
Team: New York Giants | 2019 age: 26
Beckham has struggled with maturity issues and injuries at various points in his career. But offensive playmakers of his stature rarely hit the market, blemishes or not. If the Giants seek a "behavior" discount, or they decide against a franchise tag, Beckham would be hotly pursued.
5. DeMarcus Lawrence, DE/LB
Team: Dallas Cowboys | 2019 age: 27
The Cowboys gave Lawrence their franchise tag, worth $17.143 million, after a 14.5-sack season. He's young enough to play it out and see if Dallas can stomach another short-term, high-cap season -- or if the Cowboys let him explore free agency next year.
6. Taylor Lewan, LT
Team: Tennessee Titans | 2019 age: 28
This year's market showed us what even a slightly above-average left tackle is worth on the open market when the Giants guaranteed Nate Solder $34.8 million as part of a four-year deal worth up to $62 million. Lewan, a two-time Pro Bowl player, is set to play in 2018 on a $9.341 million fifth-year option.
7. Zack Martin, G
Team: Dallas Cowboys | 2019 age: 28
Martin, who is set to play this season on a $9.341 million fifth-year option, just learned the floor of what he would be worth on the open market. As the best guard in football, Martin would get a bump off the five-year, $66.5 million deal that Andrew Norwell signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. There isn't much reason to rush into a deal now.
8. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/LB
Team: Houston Texans | 2019 age: 26
Also set to play on his fifth-year option, worth $13.846 million, Clowney was beset by injuries earlier in his career. But he has missed only two games over the past two seasons, and again, two words: edge rush.
9. Danielle Hunter, DE
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 24
As a third-round pick, Hunter isn't restricted by a fifth-year option. And because he left school early, he'll be eligible for free agency well before he turns 25. With his youth and evolving skills, Hunter is a prime candidate to wait out a year or two on the franchise tag.
10. Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Team: Detroit Lions | 2019 age: 30
The Lions thought enough of Ansah to protect him with the $17.143 million franchise tag this season. But his age and previous inconsistency might make him a year-to-year player.
11. Frank Clark, DE
Team: Seattle Seahawks | 2019 age: 26
After entering the NFL amid a series of incidents that got him kicked off the Michigan football team, Clark has proved to be a reliable pass-rusher. He has 19 sacks over the past two seasons.
12. Landon Collins, S
Team: New York Giants | 2019 age: 25
His age, and the rise of the big safety as key schematic leverage, makes Collins an intriguing candidate to push for eventual free agency.
13. David Johnson, RB
Team: Arizona Cardinals | 2019 age: 27
In free agency, NFL teams value versatile running backs among all else. Johnson is an excellent receiver, as demonstrated by an 80-catch season in 2016. After missing all but one game in 2017 because of a wrist injury, he could push his value higher with a strong season in his contract year.
14. Le'Veon Bell, RB
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers | 2019 age: 27
Although he is about the same age as Johnson, Bell would enter the 2019 market with considerably more wear and tear. At the moment, he's set to play under the franchise tag ($14.5 million this season) for the second consecutive year in Pittsburgh.
15. Jake Matthews, LT
Team: Atlanta Falcons | 2019 age: 27
Any starting left tackle on the open market would receive massive interest. Matthews, who is set to play under a fifth-year option worth $12.496 million, has made all but one start for the Falcons over the past four seasons.
16. Tyrod Taylor, QB
Team: Cleveland Browns | 2019 age: 30
It's assumed that the Browns will use Taylor as a short-term starter until the quarterback they draft in April is ready to assume control. Taylor will earn $16 million this season and could be the best available player at the most important position next offseason, assuming Ryan is off the market.
17. Nick Foles, QB
Team: Philadelphia Eagles | 2019 age: 30
Did Foles' 2017 postseason rekindle leaguewide evaluations of him as a potential starter? Or will he be considered a backup who matched perfectly with his coach and team in a critical situation? The quarterback crop at the moment is lean enough for these questions to be relevant.
18. Grady Jarrett, DT
Team: Atlanta Falcons | 2019 age: 26
A fifth-round draft choice in 2015, Jarrett has developed into a serious interior disruptor. He unofficially had 15 tackles for loss in 2017, which are Aaron Donald-type numbers, and should cost the Falcons a premium if they want to keep him off the market.
19. Anthony Barr, LB
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 27
Linebackers in a 4-3 scheme don't usually put up big pass-rush numbers, and Barr has 10.5 sacks in four seasons. He also has struggled at times with injuries and inconsistent effort, but overall he is a big (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) and fast playmaker who can fit any number of scheme priorities. He is set to play under a $12.306 million fifth-year option in 2018.
20. Kelvin Benjamin, WR
Team: Buffalo Bills | 2019 age: 28
A former first-round draft pick who was traded in his fourth season -- and has only one 1,000-yard season in his career -- might not appear to be a popular target. But after seeing what Sammy Watkins -- another big, somewhat disappointing former first-round pick -- received from the Kansas City Chiefswith $30 million in full guarantees, it's easy to envision Benjamin's market. (Watkins will earn $48 million over the three-year deal.)
21. Jarvis Landry, WR
Team: Cleveland Browns | 2019 age: 26
Traded from the Dolphins to the Browns, Landry remains under the terms of a $15.982 million franchise tag. He could have a tough time matching the numbers he produced in Miami -- an average of 100 catches per season -- in the Browns' transitioning offense, but he would have suitors regardless.
22. Lamarcus Joyner, S
Team: Los Angeles Rams | 2019 age: 28
Carrying the franchise tag in 2018 at a cost of $11.287 million, Joyner has developed into a strong playmaker. It's worth noting that safeties haven't received much attention in the 2018 market.
23. Stefon Diggs, WR
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 25
Although he has had some struggles with injuries, Diggs has proved capable in the full range of receiver roles -- from the mundane short passes to game-changing deep routes in the playoffs. He caught a career-high eight touchdown passes in 2017.
24. Martavis Bryant, WR
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers | 2019 age: 27
Two suspensions for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy will force a serious vetting effort if and when he ever reaches the market. But in a vacuum, Bryant's talent makes him an intriguing target. Those looking for a safer receiver might prefer Diggs or the Panthers' Devin Funchess.
25. Kwon Alexander, LB
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2019 age: 25
A 2017 Pro Bowl selection, Alexander has been a tackling machine for the Buccaneers over the past three seasons. He's also a bit more productive in pass coverage than other potential targets.
Honorable mentions
Ranking the top 25 potential NFL free agents for 2019
The 2018 NFL free-agent market is one week old, and already most of the top players are spoken for. As of Wednesday morning, nearly 80 of our top 100 free agents had signed contracts or agreed to terms. Naturally, then, it's time to turn the page and look ahead to ... the 2019 market.
It's not easy to project the makeup of next year's class knowing that some players will sign early contract extensions and others will receive the franchise tag. But the future market grew in relevance when quarterback Kirk Cousins and cornerback Trumaine Johnson signed massive deals last week after fending off early extension offers and previous franchise tags.
What follows is a ranking of the top 25 players whose contracts will expire after this season. Will any of them follow the Cousins-Johnson example? Consider this the first installment in a yearlong evolution of the 2019 class.
Note: Ages listed as heading into the 2019 season.
1. Matt Ryan, QB
Current team: Atlanta Falcons | Age entering 2019 season: 34
It's widely assumed that the Falcons will retain Ryan, even if it hurts -- much as their division foes in New Orleans have done for years with Drew Brees. That would mean a massive extension in the next 11 months, one that surpasses Cousins' $28 million annual average and possibly his $84 million in full guarantees as well. Cousins was entering his age-30 season when he hit free agency, but teams would still fall over themselves to sign a 34-year-old Ryan if they had a chance.
2. Aaron Donald, DT
Team: Los Angeles Rams | 2019 age: 28
The 2017 Defensive Player of the Year held out last summer in hopes of a new deal. He didn't get one and is set to play in 2018 on a fifth-year option worth $6.892 million. Now the Rams will try to get him signed ahead of his contract expiration. Will they face consequences for their too-low offers last year?
3. Khalil Mack, DE/LB
Team: Oakland Raiders | 2019 age: 28
Mack is set to play this season on a $13.846 million fifth-year option. Other than quarterbacks, there are no positions more pursued in the market than edge rushers. (Note that not a single dominant rusher actually hit the market in 2018.) Mack is a two-time All-Pro, was the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and has 36.5 sacks over the past three seasons.
4. Odell Beckham Jr., WR
Team: New York Giants | 2019 age: 26
Beckham has struggled with maturity issues and injuries at various points in his career. But offensive playmakers of his stature rarely hit the market, blemishes or not. If the Giants seek a "behavior" discount, or they decide against a franchise tag, Beckham would be hotly pursued.
5. DeMarcus Lawrence, DE/LB
Team: Dallas Cowboys | 2019 age: 27
The Cowboys gave Lawrence their franchise tag, worth $17.143 million, after a 14.5-sack season. He's young enough to play it out and see if Dallas can stomach another short-term, high-cap season -- or if the Cowboys let him explore free agency next year.
6. Taylor Lewan, LT
Team: Tennessee Titans | 2019 age: 28
This year's market showed us what even a slightly above-average left tackle is worth on the open market when the Giants guaranteed Nate Solder $34.8 million as part of a four-year deal worth up to $62 million. Lewan, a two-time Pro Bowl player, is set to play in 2018 on a $9.341 million fifth-year option.
7. Zack Martin, G
Team: Dallas Cowboys | 2019 age: 28
Martin, who is set to play this season on a $9.341 million fifth-year option, just learned the floor of what he would be worth on the open market. As the best guard in football, Martin would get a bump off the five-year, $66.5 million deal that Andrew Norwell signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. There isn't much reason to rush into a deal now.
8. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/LB
Team: Houston Texans | 2019 age: 26
Also set to play on his fifth-year option, worth $13.846 million, Clowney was beset by injuries earlier in his career. But he has missed only two games over the past two seasons, and again, two words: edge rush.
9. Danielle Hunter, DE
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 24
As a third-round pick, Hunter isn't restricted by a fifth-year option. And because he left school early, he'll be eligible for free agency well before he turns 25. With his youth and evolving skills, Hunter is a prime candidate to wait out a year or two on the franchise tag.
10. Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Team: Detroit Lions | 2019 age: 30
The Lions thought enough of Ansah to protect him with the $17.143 million franchise tag this season. But his age and previous inconsistency might make him a year-to-year player.
11. Frank Clark, DE
Team: Seattle Seahawks | 2019 age: 26
After entering the NFL amid a series of incidents that got him kicked off the Michigan football team, Clark has proved to be a reliable pass-rusher. He has 19 sacks over the past two seasons.
12. Landon Collins, S
Team: New York Giants | 2019 age: 25
His age, and the rise of the big safety as key schematic leverage, makes Collins an intriguing candidate to push for eventual free agency.
13. David Johnson, RB
Team: Arizona Cardinals | 2019 age: 27
In free agency, NFL teams value versatile running backs among all else. Johnson is an excellent receiver, as demonstrated by an 80-catch season in 2016. After missing all but one game in 2017 because of a wrist injury, he could push his value higher with a strong season in his contract year.
14. Le'Veon Bell, RB
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers | 2019 age: 27
Although he is about the same age as Johnson, Bell would enter the 2019 market with considerably more wear and tear. At the moment, he's set to play under the franchise tag ($14.5 million this season) for the second consecutive year in Pittsburgh.
15. Jake Matthews, LT
Team: Atlanta Falcons | 2019 age: 27
Any starting left tackle on the open market would receive massive interest. Matthews, who is set to play under a fifth-year option worth $12.496 million, has made all but one start for the Falcons over the past four seasons.
16. Tyrod Taylor, QB
Team: Cleveland Browns | 2019 age: 30
It's assumed that the Browns will use Taylor as a short-term starter until the quarterback they draft in April is ready to assume control. Taylor will earn $16 million this season and could be the best available player at the most important position next offseason, assuming Ryan is off the market.
17. Nick Foles, QB
Team: Philadelphia Eagles | 2019 age: 30
Did Foles' 2017 postseason rekindle leaguewide evaluations of him as a potential starter? Or will he be considered a backup who matched perfectly with his coach and team in a critical situation? The quarterback crop at the moment is lean enough for these questions to be relevant.
18. Grady Jarrett, DT
Team: Atlanta Falcons | 2019 age: 26
A fifth-round draft choice in 2015, Jarrett has developed into a serious interior disruptor. He unofficially had 15 tackles for loss in 2017, which are Aaron Donald-type numbers, and should cost the Falcons a premium if they want to keep him off the market.
19. Anthony Barr, LB
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 27
Linebackers in a 4-3 scheme don't usually put up big pass-rush numbers, and Barr has 10.5 sacks in four seasons. He also has struggled at times with injuries and inconsistent effort, but overall he is a big (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) and fast playmaker who can fit any number of scheme priorities. He is set to play under a $12.306 million fifth-year option in 2018.
20. Kelvin Benjamin, WR
Team: Buffalo Bills | 2019 age: 28
A former first-round draft pick who was traded in his fourth season -- and has only one 1,000-yard season in his career -- might not appear to be a popular target. But after seeing what Sammy Watkins -- another big, somewhat disappointing former first-round pick -- received from the Kansas City Chiefswith $30 million in full guarantees, it's easy to envision Benjamin's market. (Watkins will earn $48 million over the three-year deal.)
21. Jarvis Landry, WR
Team: Cleveland Browns | 2019 age: 26
Traded from the Dolphins to the Browns, Landry remains under the terms of a $15.982 million franchise tag. He could have a tough time matching the numbers he produced in Miami -- an average of 100 catches per season -- in the Browns' transitioning offense, but he would have suitors regardless.
22. Lamarcus Joyner, S
Team: Los Angeles Rams | 2019 age: 28
Carrying the franchise tag in 2018 at a cost of $11.287 million, Joyner has developed into a strong playmaker. It's worth noting that safeties haven't received much attention in the 2018 market.
23. Stefon Diggs, WR
Team: Minnesota Vikings | 2019 age: 25
Although he has had some struggles with injuries, Diggs has proved capable in the full range of receiver roles -- from the mundane short passes to game-changing deep routes in the playoffs. He caught a career-high eight touchdown passes in 2017.
24. Martavis Bryant, WR
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers | 2019 age: 27
Two suspensions for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy will force a serious vetting effort if and when he ever reaches the market. But in a vacuum, Bryant's talent makes him an intriguing target. Those looking for a safer receiver might prefer Diggs or the Panthers' Devin Funchess.
25. Kwon Alexander, LB
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2019 age: 25
A 2017 Pro Bowl selection, Alexander has been a tackling machine for the Buccaneers over the past three seasons. He's also a bit more productive in pass coverage than other potential targets.
Honorable mentions
