Ranking the NFL's top 25 prospects: Young players who could level up in 2021
Which under-27 players drafted in the third round or later are ready for a big role this season? We run down the top names to watch.
Ranking the NFL's top 25 prospects: Young players who could level up in 2021
Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players. Eighty percent of draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, and 10% is about the players who should have been first-round picks but instead went in the second round, particularly if they were quarterbacks.
This list is about that last 10%. It's a stab in the dark at players who may just come out of the woodwork and surprise you this year.
Methodology
This is the 15th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there would be no offensive linemen on it) and career potential matters. It's not just a list for the 2021 season.
Here's our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2018 and 2020
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps)
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger as of September 1, 2021
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about DVOA and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats, including blown blocks and success rate in coverage, come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2021.
FULL LIST
18. David Long, CB, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 23 | Drafted: 2019, pick 79 | 225 defensive snaps
Long's 2020 opportunity for playing time was swallowed whole by an impressive run from Darious Williams. Not only did Williams take the third corner job, he ran away with it, getting a huge payday in the process. Long started just one game, a 28-17 loss to the Dolphins in Week 8, and allowed a three-yard touchdown to Devante Parker. Still, winning a ball from Parker in tight coverage isn't easy for anybody, and Long was not kept off the field by schlubs -- the Rams had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last year.
On pedigree, Long came out of Michigan as a true outside corner with his most ridiculous calling card being the 6.45-second three-cone drill time at the 2019 combine. Long had three picks and 12 passes defensed in two years with the Wolverines, with Big 10 quarterbacks all but avoiding him if they could.
Troy Hill fled to the Browns in free agency, and the Rams didn't make any real stabs at replacing him beyond using a fourth-rounder on Central Arkansas corner Robert Rochell. "He's done a great job," Sean McVay said in May. "I think he's really done a nice job elevating his game at the outside location. He has been a guy with some position flex inside, but I think he's really, really done a nice job of growing. He's gotten a lot of really valuable, beneficial reps where you've seen him tangibly improve throughout the course of the offseason because the one thing that we have done full-speed is 7-on-7. He's taken to Coach Evero, Coach Cooley and Coach Morris' teaching progression, understanding concepts better and I've been really pleased with David and he's a guy we're going to count on and we're expecting him to be a big-time contributor for us." Long certainly appears to have the inside track on playing time this year.
