Ranking New Starting QBs and Their Potential for Success/Banks

[RamFan503]

Having Demarco Murray and a couple of Pro Bowl offensive linemen is a gimmick?

I will say though for those who think he is running the UofO offense, Demarco Murray is pretty far from his prototypical RB for Oregon. He had mostly small slasher type backs like LaMichael and Kenjon. The NFL version of his offense is much less centered on gadgets and tricks.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Having Demarco Murray and a couple of Pro Bowl offensive linemen is a gimmick?

Well, his offense is based on tempo and conditioning and scheme. He doesn't just line up and punch you in the mouth. He relies on fitness regimen, sleep requirements, even certain plane restrictions. It doesn't matter that he has Murray and a couple of Pro Bowl linemen. He claims he can successfully run his offense with anyone. Yes I would call it gimmicky. Maybe a better word is unconventional mixed with a bit of trickery.

I will say though for those who think he is running the UofO offense, Demarco Murray is pretty far from his prototypical RB for Oregon. He had mostly small slasher type backs like LaMichael and Kenjon. The NFL version of his offense is much less centered on gadgets and tricks.

Murray is just a bigger version of what he is used to. Basically his offense requires North/South runners. That is what Murray is. At the NFL level it is tough to run an offense with lightweights like James as your feature back.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I agree. I did not think so however during 2013. Mariota demonstrated the ability to be a pocket passer in 2014 and in reality was not playing in anything like a Chip Kelly offense. Mariota's passing yards went way up last year and his rushing averages went way down. Helfrich runs a more traditional offense. The rushing threat was biggest and most important inside the red zone. I think that may be the case in Tenn also.

I agree. Mariota's last college season under Helfrich made me think that he would transition to a pro system easier than many spread style QBs

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

The up tempo idea is also a bit of a myth. The Ducks routinely used almost every second of the play clock. They used a no huddle based on signaled plays from the sideline. The QB would hustle the O to the line so the defense could not substitute, then walk back and get the play from the sideline. They would generally only snap it early if they felt the D was not set. What wore defenses down was that they could not substitute regularly and they had to get into their stances and hold it for longer than normal.

I still would call that up tempo. They are quick to the line and play a hurry up style most of the time. They rely on better conditioning to get an edge on the opponents, especially on their Defense. The offense is based on the spread where they want to utilize the entire field and have a target at every level on every play. Kelly figures one will be open and there is not really a hot read. The QB comes to the line and reads the defense and gets an idea who he thinks will be the free guy and looks for him first. But has other options on every play. The Martz system was similar in that every play was a run or a pass depending on how the defense lined up. Well Kelly's is more like two runs and 4 possible passes on each play. I don't recall Sam being that kind of information processor with the Rams but then again he was being coached by Schottenheimer.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I'm not going to completely discount the possibility that Mariota is a transcendent talent - that is to say like a Luck, Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Peyton in that he can dramatically change the fortunes of your franchise singlehandedly...but I will say it seems to me unlikely.

Those guys are pretty rare.

I thought he was an excellent player at Oregon and I think he is a terrific QB prospect...but I think we just happen to be an era where we've witnessed some of the best QB play of all time and are maybe a little more used to it.

Some will probably suggest that the rules around the game create more opportunities for guys to reach that kind of level. Perhaps that's true. But I think we should also recognize that even now, in this glorified era of passing, we're still reaching this point where Brady and Peyton and Brees are nearing their curtain call and outside of Rodgers, Luck and maybe a Wilson here or there there doesn't seem to be anyone waiting in the wings to become that next guy.

Ryan Tannehill?

Teddy Bridgewater?

IDK.

Maybe that guy is Mariota. But it seems to me unlikely.

Why not? He has a good all the tools and he has a good QB friendly coach in Wisenhunt. If they can keep him upright (his legs will help) and not try to run him all the time. He has a very good chance of turning into a franchise QB. Realistically only a few QBs are successful with varying circumstances. Even a Brees had to have a good line and a steady stable of weapons. But he is still regarded as a top level QB. I think Mariota is capable of that level of success.

 

[RamFan503]

He claims he can successfully run his offense with anyone.

Yeah - I don't think he does. That would be brash even by Kelly standards.

Murray is just a bigger version of what he is used to. Basically his offense requires North/South runners. That is what Murray is. At the NFL level it is tough to run an offense with lightweights like James as your feature back.

Nah. Murray isn't really anything like a bigger version of LJ or KB. Not sure that is really a valid comparison anyway. Otherwise, LJ would have been a great change of pace back in SF. LJ is quicker and much smaller and far less of a strider. He relies on quicks - not a burst of power and speed.

I agree. Mariota's last college season under Helfrich made me think that he would transition to a pro system easier than many spread style QBs

Totally agree.

My sons went to OSU and UofO. We watch a lot of Oregon football and get all the local reports and such. Until 2014, I considered Mariota a very good to great COLLEGE QB that would hold a clipboard for his entire NFL career. 2014 changed all that for me. I was really pretty stunned seeing him adapt into a more mature QB that relied more on his arm and wits and less on his legs. He's a smart kid with great physical tools including what used to be a pretty under-rated arm. They used to say he could pass accurately and safely but lacked the ability to throw across his body or make a real good deep pass. Yeah.... Not so much.

It's pretty fun for me to have him and Manion to watch in the pros coming in as rooks in the same class. And to have Sean on our team? Yeah baby! Go Oregon football.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Yeah - I don't think he does. That would be brash even by Kelly standards.

I live in PA and have heard him on the radio and heard many radio talk show guys and they all say the same thing. That he believes so soundly in his system that he thinks he can run it with any type of personnel. Thing is, year two he is trying to find the right personnel. Seems that doesn't fly in the pros.

Nah. Murray isn't really anything like a bigger version of LJ or KB. Not sure that is really a valid comparison anyway. Otherwise, LJ would have been a great change of pace back in SF. LJ is quicker and much smaller and far less of a strider. He relies on quicks - not a burst of power and speed.

What I was getting at was the North/South running. He wanted a North/South runner. Again it has been stated on the Philly radio stations repeatedly that Kelly prefers more of a North/South runner for his system and he felt that McCoy ran East/West too much. Maybe his comp to LJ is Sproles. I never really paid much attention to Oregon football. I am just going by what I hear from guys on ESPN radio.

 

[dieterbrock]

Kelly's 1st year in Philly, the QB ran the ball near 100 times for 500 yards and 5 td
Last year, they ran it much less effectively at 50 carries for 155 and 1 td

Im not sure what Kelly's plan is but IMO there's a huge difference between having a spread offense with less dependence on the QB running the ball vs having a spread offense where the QB is no option for running the ball.

As for the rest of the article? Kind of a puff piece for the writer to proclaim Tyrod Taylor as some sort of surprise player but covering his bets by not putting him #1

I think the guy many people are sleeping on is Cousins. These coaches in Washington keep believing in him despite ownership forcing "the other guy" on them. He must be showing a lot because he sure has gotten a ton of support by the football guys

 

[RamFan503]

I live in PA and have heard him on the radio and heard many radio talk show guys and they all say the same thing. That he believes so soundly in his system that he thinks he can run it with any type of personnel. Thing is, year two he is trying to find the right personnel. Seems that doesn't fly in the pros.

I think he believes he can run his system or a variation of it with all sorts of personnel. I do remember him saying though that he had certain type players he wanted to bring in for it. No biggie though.

What I was getting at was the North/South running. He wanted a North/South runner. Again it has been stated on the Philly radio stations repeatedly that Kelly prefers more of a North/South runner for his system and he felt that McCoy ran East/West too much. Maybe his comp to LJ is Sproles. I never really paid much attention to Oregon football. I am just going by what I hear from guys on ESPN radio.

Sproles is a good comparison for LJ and KB. Kelly is used to being able to have his RBs be able to turn upfield. It takes a bit more burst and power to do it in his system in the NFL. At least that's my take on it. You are not going to get the kinds of wide open lanes that you do in college. And I'm sure he saw that when he played the bigger SEC teams and such when he was at Oregon. Stanford was a good example as well IIRR. They tended to have a bit more beef than some of the other Pac teams. The teams with bigger front sevens gave Oregon real problems.

At any rate, Kelly's offense is not as gimmicky as some want to say. It is certainly different than many others - even among college spreads. But it's not like Jerry Glanville's Red Gun offense. I guess we'll see if it continues to work at this level or if the NFL minds get it figured out.

But getting back to Bradford in this offense, he can make it hum if he doesn't get taken out. It relies mostly on being able to hit a receiver quick and accurately. Unless Kelly has really changed things, there are not a bunch of curls and stops like what we were running.

 

[Psycho_X]

I wonder if any of the people praising Bradford as the next messiah of football in Philly have done in historical research. And I only point this out for reference because I can't stand how much press preseason stats get... no one wants to see Bradford succeed more then me... except when it affects the Rams lol. But anyway....

Career preseason QB ratings for Sam Bradford for an average of 105.66

2010 - 95.9
2011 - 97.1
2012 - 116.3
2013 - 114.1
2014 - 104.9

During those 5 preseasons he threw for 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions (both ints coming in 2011). Point being Bradford has always been a camp and preseason stud that got all of our hopes up. We'll see if it translates for 16 games in Philly for a change.

 

[KDS73]

If only I had bet $10 a couple of years ago with everyone who said Chip Kelly would fail miserably in the NFL and would be back to coaching college by now. I'd easily have enough to retire.

 

[Zombie Slayer]

I questioned this too. How does Rex Ryan suddenly become the coach that can turn Tyrod Taylor into a star? Is it because he now has a good defense? He had that in New York and the results weren't great.

I'm assuming he is ahead of Foles because of his supporting cast. The Bills have a great defense and on offense they have McCoy, Watkins and Harvin.

 

[RamFan503]

I wonder if any of the people praising Bradford as the next messiah of football in Philly have done in historical research. And I only point this out for reference because I can't stand how much press preseason stats get... no one wants to see Bradford succeed more then me... except when it affects the Rams lol. But anyway....

Career preseason QB ratings for Sam Bradford for an average of 105.66

2010 - 95.9
2011 - 97.1
2012 - 116.3
2013 - 114.1
2014 - 104.9

During those 5 preseasons he threw for 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions (both ints coming in 2011). Point being Bradford has always been a camp and preseason stud that got all of our hopes up. We'll see if it translates for 16 games in Philly for a change.

Yep. I do think this is a better system for him but I have to agree - the proof only matters in meaningful games.

 

[VinnyRam]

Fix him is the wrong way to look at it IMO. You think Sam has bad pocket presence yet I would say that any QB would have bad pocket presence if he could count on slow developing plays and no time. Sam is very accurate, has a fast trigger, and is getting better at reading defenses. In a way, he is very Warneresque with weak knees and ankles.

The offense that Chip ran in Oregon is not really even all that similar to what I've seen him run in the NFL except that it is based on a somewhat spread, up tempo, and running the ball. A lot of people think Chip's offense at U of O was a lot of passing and wide open offense. Not the case. It was based on keeping the defense on it's heels and preventing them from clogging the LOS. Big front 7s always were difficult for the Ducks to run wild against.

The up tempo idea is also a bit of a myth. The Ducks routinely used almost every second of the play clock. They used a no huddle based on signaled plays from the sideline. The QB would hustle the O to the line so the defense could not substitute, then walk back and get the play from the sideline. They would generally only snap it early if they felt the D was not set. What wore defenses down was that they could not substitute regularly and they had to get into their stances and hold it for longer than normal.

What it appears Chip is doing is utilizing a smart QB that can do quick reads and disguise hand offs. I haven't watched enough of the Iggles to see if he is still using the entire play clock like he did at Oregon but I'm going to guess they are.

I had my doubts on Chip in the NFL. But I think he has tweaked his system and now pulled in the types of players to make it work. Is it going to work against playoff teams? I still have my doubts. But Sam has an opportunity to put up some gaudy numbers and if the defense is decent, that should result in a lot of wins.

I would let Bradford win at least 10-12 games in a season before I would use the word "Warneresque" in the same sentence at Bradford. Bradford reads a defense??? come on---he sees a blitz coming and panicks and never hits the receiver on the run in his slant route. Receiver has to stop and make adjustment--then tackled for 3 yard gain or incomplete. Now I always liked Bradford and gave him the benefit of the doubt always hoping he would grasp the NFL and the speed of the game--but at no time did he read defenses and make adjustments--execute-- and beat the defense. Now Warner on the other hand, seen it all and executed!!!! I cant wait to see defenses load the box to stop DeMarco and make Bradford beat them. With 8 in the box, they will bring the blitzes all day and make Bradford execute. I wish him the best but putting my $$$$ against him as we have seen the result game after game after game.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I'm assuming he is ahead of Foles because of his supporting cast. The Bills have a great defense and on offense they have McCoy, Watkins and Harvin.

I get that part but what has Tyrod Taylor ever done in the NFL? Is he the next Russell Wilson or is he the next Tim Tebow?

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I think he believes he can run his system or a variation of it with all sorts of personnel. I do remember him saying though that he had certain type players he wanted to bring in for it. No biggie though.


Sproles is a good comparison for LJ and KB. Kelly is used to being able to have his RBs be able to turn upfield. It takes a bit more burst and power to do it in his system in the NFL. At least that's my take on it. You are not going to get the kinds of wide open lanes that you do in college. And I'm sure he saw that when he played the bigger SEC teams and such when he was at Oregon. Stanford was a good example as well IIRR. They tended to have a bit more beef than some of the other Pac teams. The teams with bigger front sevens gave Oregon real problems.

At any rate, Kelly's offense is not as gimmicky as some want to say. It is certainly different than many others - even among college spreads. But it's not like Jerry Glanville's Red Gun offense. I guess we'll see if it continues to work at this level or if the NFL minds get it figured out.

But getting back to Bradford in this offense, he can make it hum if he doesn't get taken out. It relies mostly on being able to hit a receiver quick and accurately. Unless Kelly has really changed things, there are not a bunch of curls and stops like what we were running.

This is what I remember of Sam. Poor pocket presence, often falling down at the hint of pressure. Throwing too hard on close patterns. Throwing late behind receivers often. Checkingdown too frequently. Giving up trust with receivers at the first hint of dropsies. The unwillingness to throw down field when it was needed to make something happen. Sure there were times when he functioned well but this summed up much of his tenure with the Rams. Add to it that he was not a vocal leader and didn't really lead on the field, instead just getting irritated and rolling his eyes and walking off.

I don't see how that all computes to this great QBing that the press is prognosticating. It seems that with the Rams Sam was regarded as a bit of a bust, now with Kelly and the Eagles he is right up there with the best in the league.

 

[RamFan503]

I would let Bradford win at least 10-12 games in a season before I would use the word "Warneresque" in the same sentence at Bradford. Bradford reads a defense??? come on---he sees a blitz coming and panicks and never hits the receiver on the run in his slant route. Receiver has to stop and make adjustment--then tackled for 3 yard gain or incomplete. Now I always liked Bradford and gave him the benefit of the doubt always hoping he would grasp the NFL and the speed of the game--but at no time did he read defenses and make adjustments--execute-- and beat the defense. Now Warner on the other hand, seen it all and executed!!!! I cant wait to see defenses load the box to stop DeMarco and make Bradford beat them. With 8 in the box, they will bring the blitzes all day and make Bradford execute. I wish him the best but putting my $$$$ against him as we have seen the result game after game after game.

I ONLY used Warneresque in terms of style - not by any means level of play thus far.

Proof will be in the pudding but I'm guessing he won't be asked to throw all those stops and hooks I think we all hated.

 

[-X-]

Now I always liked Bradford and gave him the benefit of the doubt always hoping he would grasp the NFL and the speed of the game--but at no time did he read defenses and make adjustments--execute-- and beat the defense.

lol.