Rank 'Em: Top 10 Running Backs for 2015

[NateDawg122]

It's time for some post-season reflection and I want to see who y'all think were the top running backs this season. I'd also like to see projections for who the will be the best next year. Here's my initial list for 2015:

1. Todd Gurley - 1,106 yards in 12 starts, 4.8 YPC, 10 TD, 3 fumbles. Call me a homer but I think he was the best this year. Averaged more YPG started than AP and more YPC as well. All while coming off an ACL injury and with the worst passing game in the League. Give me TG30 all day.
2. Adrian Peterson - 16 games, 1,485 yards, 4.5 YPC, 11 TD, 6 fumbles.
3. Doug Martin - 16 games, 1402 yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD, 4 fumbles.
4. Devonta Freeman - 15 games, 1,056 yards, 4.0 YPC, 11 TD, 2 fumbles, 73 receptions, 578 yards, 3 TD.
5. Chris Ivory - 15 games, 1,070 yards, 4.3 YPC, 7 TD, 3 fumbles.
6. LeSean McCoy- 12 games, 895 yards, 4.4 YPC, 3 TD, 1 fumble.
7. Darren McFadden - 16 games, 1,089 yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD, 3 fumbles.
8. Chris Johnson - 11 games, 814 yards, 4.2 YPC, 3 TD, 2 fumbles.
9. Jonathon Stewart - 13 games, 989 yards, 4.1 YPC, 6 TD, 3 fumbles.
10. Latavius Murray - 16 games, 1,066, 4.0 YPC, 6 TD, 3 fumbles.

2016 Projected Top 10 RBs:

1. Todd Gurley
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Devonta Freeman
6. Doug Martin
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Chris Ivory
10. David Johnson

 

[NJRamsFan]

AP was better this year. More yardage more tds and don't forget games played is a stat as well. Playing 16 games is a good thing.

 

[NateDawg122]

AP was better this year. More yardage more tds and don't forget games played is a stat as well. Playing 16 games is a good thing.

I look at it from an efficiency standpoint as well. In 12 starts Gurley had 223 carries, 1097 yards, 4.92 YPC, 10 TD, 91.42 YPG, .83 TD per game or 1 TD per 22.3 carries, and .25 fumbles per game or 1 fumble every 74.33 carries.

Compare that to Peterson who had 16 starts, 327 carries, 1485 yards, 4.54 YPC, 92.81 YPG, .69 TD per game or 1 TD per 29.73 carries, and .375 fumbles per game or 1 fumble per every 54.5 carries.

This is all with Gurley behind a worse offensive line and a much worse passing game. Peterson is definitely close but I'll still take Gurley.

 

[DaveFan'51]

It's time for some post-season reflection and I want to see who y'all think were the top running backs this season. I'd also like to see projections for who the will be the best next year. Here's my initial list for 2015:

1. Todd Gurley - 1,106 yards in 12 starts, 4.8 YPC, 10 TD, 3 fumbles. Call me a homer but I think he was the best this year. Averaged more YPG started than AP and more YPC as well. All while coming off an ACL injury and with the worst passing game in the League. Give me TG30 all day.
2. Adrian Peterson - 16 games, 1,485 yards, 4.5 YPC, 11 TD, 6 fumbles.
3. Doug Martin - 16 games, 1402 yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD, 4 fumbles.
4. Devonta Freeman - 15 games, 1,056 yards, 4.0 YPC, 11 TD, 2 fumbles, 73 receptions, 578 yards, 3 TD.
5. Chris Ivory - 15 games, 1,070 yards, 4.3 YPC, 7 TD, 3 fumbles.
6. LeSean McCoy- 12 games, 895 yards, 4.4 YPC, 3 TD, 1 fumble.
7. Darren McFadden - 16 games, 1,089 yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD, 3 fumbles.
8. Chris Johnson - 11 games, 814 yards, 4.2 YPC, 3 TD, 2 fumbles.
9. Jonathon Stewart - 13 games, 989 yards, 4.1 YPC, 6 TD, 3 fumbles.
10. Latavius Murray - 16 games, 1,066, 4.0 YPC, 6 TD, 3 fumbles.

2016 Projected Top 10 RBs:

1. Todd Gurley
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Devonta Freeman
6. Doug Martin
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Chris Ivory
10. David Johnson

As Long as Gurrrley is Ranked #1, I don't care who's ranked 2 thru 10!!:rolllaugh:

 

[jjab360]

I still think AD was better last year, but I foresee a long stretch where Gurley will be considered the best RB in the NFL coming up.

 

[jap]

TGII: "I'm just getting warmed up! We hardly touched the surface of my receiving skills, and Coach has yet to use me as an option passer. I can return kickoffs if needed, and maybe I can kick 60-yard FG's too."

 

[CGI_Ram]

I think Peterson was the better RB in 2015. But, if I were planning my team for 2016 I'd put Gurley #1.

Besides; Peterson's ball security issues would drive me nuts.

 

[NJRamsFan]

I look at it from an efficiency standpoint as well. In 12 starts Gurley had 223 carries, 1097 yards, 4.92 YPC, 10 TD, 91.42 YPG, .83 TD per game or 1 TD per 22.3 carries, and .25 fumbles per game or 1 fumble every 74.33 carries.

Compare that to Peterson who had 16 starts, 327 carries, 1485 yards, 4.54 YPC, 92.81 YPG, .69 TD per game or 1 TD per 29.73 carries, and .375 fumbles per game or 1 fumble per every 54.5 carries.

This is all with Gurley behind a worse offensive line and a much worse passing game. Peterson is definitely close but I'll still take Gurley.

You can't hold things like playing more games or having a better line against a player. Although true, they are neither here nor there when asking who had a BETTER season. More efficient season...maybe. You keep saying you'd take Gurley ..if you're talking going forward yeah I agree but again that's unrelated to the op

You're saying you'd rather have 400 less yards 1 less td and 4 games without your starting running back? I don't follow the logic on that

 

[NateDawg122]

You can't hold things like playing more games or having a better line against a player. Although true, they are neither here nor there when asking who had a BETTER season. More efficient season...maybe. You keep saying you'd take Gurley ..if you're talking going forward yeah I agree but again that's unrelated to the op

You're saying you'd rather have 400 less yards 1 less td and 4 games without your starting running back? I don't follow the logic on that

I'm not ranking players on pure statistical output. I'm saying who the best running backs were this year based on their ability and performance while having them stay reasonably healthy. I think Gurley was the best this year. Meaning, if I had to pick any RB to start a game for me I'm taking Gurley.

 

[NJRamsFan]

I'm not ranking players on pure statistical output. I'm saying who the best running backs were this year based on their ability and performance while having them stay reasonably healthy. I think Gurley was the best this year. Meaning, if I had to pick any RB to start a game for me I'm taking Gurley.

I get the notion that stats dont paint the whole picture because most of the time they dont. But when strictly asking who had the best season, that argument kind of lives and dies with the stats. When you start interpreting how or why things could have been different thats your opinion on how things might be going forward which is a different argument.

Adrian Peterson had more yards, more touchdowns, more receptions, more recieving yards, and played in more games (which is a positive not negative). Across the board he finished ahead of Gurley so youre still not making it clear how you think Gurley had a better season. He didnt beat Peterson in any aspect. besides the YPC and YPG started things you mentioned but you cant count those because gurley missed games so obviously his averages should be higher. easier to have a higher average with less attempts.

Factoring in ability and who you would want to start in any given game is an ENTIRELY different conversation. If those are your main criteria (because its obviously not statistical output) Then how is Le'veon Bell not arguably number 1. You seemed to have blended in 2 different question into 1 in order to favor gurley. I agree with your list going forward and agree you can argue you'd take Gurley in any given game over the others but there is simply no way to make a case Gurley had a better season. there just isnt.

 

[NateDawg122]

I get the notion that stats dont paint the whole picture because most of the time they dont. But when strictly asking who had the best season, that argument kind of lives and dies with the stats. When you start interpreting how or why things could have been different thats your opinion on how things might be going forward which is a different argument.

Adrian Peterson had more yards, more touchdowns, more receptions, more recieving yards, and played in more games (which is a positive not negative). Across the board he finished ahead of Gurley so youre still not making it clear how you think Gurley had a better season. He didnt beat Peterson in any aspect. besides the YPC and YPG started things you mentioned but you cant count those because gurley missed games so obviously his averages should be higher. easier to have a higher average with less attempts.

Factoring in ability and who you would want to start in any given game is an ENTIRELY different conversation. If those are your main criteria (because its obviously not statistical output) Then how is Le'veon Bell not arguably number 1. You seemed to have blended in 2 different question into 1 in order to favor gurley. I agree with your list going forward and agree you can argue you'd take Gurley in any given game over the others but there is simply no way to make a case Gurley had a better season. there just isnt.

As far as Le'Veon goes, if you read my quote carefully you'd see I spoke about the best running backs while being "reasonably healthy." Bell only played 6 games this year. I have already broken down my argument from an efficiency standpoint. Gurley had more TD on a per carry basis, more YPC, more 20+ yards per carry, and less fumbles per carry. I've taken into account overall output, efficiency, and surrounding circumstances. Also, from a statistical standpoint, Peterson had a much higher standard deviation when it came to his performances. He had everything from a 18 yard performance against the Seahawks to a 203 yard performance against Oakland. This means he was more inconsistent in his production than Gurley was.

Keep in mind, this is my own personal opinion on who the best backs were this year. Total rushing yardage can lie. McFadden had more rushing yards than Freeman and Ivory but there is no way I would put him above either of them. Multiple factors have to be taken into account besides just per, bottom line output.

 

[NJRamsFan]

As far as Le'Veon goes, if you read my quote carefully you'd see I spoke about the best running backs while being "reasonably healthy." Bell only played 6 games this year. I have already broken down my argument from an efficiency standpoint. Gurley had more TD on a per carry basis, more YPC, more 20+ yards per carry, and less fumbles per carry. I've taken into account overall output, efficiency, and surrounding circumstances. Also, from a statistical standpoint, Peterson had a much higher standard deviation when it came to his performances. He had everything from a 18 yard performance against the Seahawks to a 203 yard performance against Oakland. This means he was more inconsistent in his production than Gurley was.

Keep in mind, this is my own personal opinion on who the best backs were this year. Total rushing yardage can lie. McFadden had more rushing yards than Freeman and Ivory but there is no way I would put him above either of them. Multiple factors have to be taken into account besides just per, bottom line output.

What's to say Gurley wouldn't have had a few 18 yard games had he played in as many as Peterson? To your other point ..I say again it's easier to have higher averages on less attempts in less games. I can see arguments based on talent, potential going forward anything of the sort but when someone literally beats you in every single measurable category there's no feasible argument to say Gurley had the better season

What are your qualifications for "best back" if not yardage, touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, and games played?

 

[NateDawg122]

What's to say Gurley wouldn't have had a few 18 yard games had he played in as many as Peterson? To your other point ..I say again it's easier to have higher averages on less attempts in less games. I can see arguments based on talent, potential going forward anything of the sort but when someone literally beats you in every single measurable category there's no feasible argument to say Gurley had the better season

What are your qualifications for "best back" if not yardage, touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, and games played?

No offense but I've explained my position several times in this thread. AP hasn't beaten Todd in every measurable category and I've demonstrated that in my previous posts. Total yardage isn't everything as I've also explained. Frank Gore has more total career yards than O.J. Simpson but you'd be crazy to think Gore is the better back. If you disagree with me on my method that's fine but I've answered your questions and explained my position thoroughly.

 

[NJRamsFan]

No offense but I've explained my position several times in this thread. AP hasn't beaten Todd in every measurable category and I've demonstrated that in my previous posts. Total yardage isn't everything as I've also explained. Frank Gore has more total career yards than O.J. Simpson but you'd be crazy to think Gore is the better back. If you disagree with me on my method that's fine but I've answered your questions and explained my position thoroughly.

You have yet to show a category Gurley bested Peterson in that Gurley didn't benefit directly from playing fewer games (again if you play in fewer games it's easier to have higher averages). So no you have not demonstrated that in the slightest.

When did I say total yardage was everything? I said the culmination of rushing yards touchdowns receptions receiving yards and games played prove he had a better (more productive) year.

I'm not even gonna address the oj/gore point because it's a desperate reach.

It's quite clear you have no "method" other than Gurley being your favorite player and ignoring every major category in order to make some made up point. You haven't backed up a single thing you've said other than showing he had certain averages that were higher which everyone knows is easier to achieve with fewer attempts.

When you ask who was the best back of a given year you look at it in a vacuum. Talent doesn't matter, situation doesn't matter, potential doesn't matter, injury doesn't matter, only production. And AP unarguably out produced Gurley.

 

[NateDawg122]

You have yet to show a category Gurley bested Peterson in that Gurley didn't benefit directly from playing fewer games (again if you play in fewer games it's easier to have higher averages). So no you have not demonstrated that in the slightest.

When did I say total yardage was everything? I said the culmination of rushing yards touchdowns receptions receiving yards and games played prove he had a better (more productive) year.

I'm not even gonna address the oj/gore point because it's a desperate reach.

It's quite clear you have no "method" other than Gurley being your favorite player and ignoring every major category in order to make some made up point. You haven't backed up a single thing you've said other than showing he had certain averages that were higher which everyone knows is easier to achieve with fewer attempts.

When you ask who was the best back of a given year you look at it in a vacuum. Talent doesn't matter, situation doesn't matter, potential doesn't matter, injury doesn't matter, only production. And AP unarguably out produced Gurley.

"Situation doesn't matter." Alright dude, I'm done. My stats are listed above as are my rankings. Although I guess you don't consider YPC a reasonable measure. Have a good night.

 

[NJRamsFan]

"Situation doesn't matter." Alright dude, I'm done. My stats are listed above as are my rankings. Although I guess you don't consider YPC a reasonable measure. Have a good night.

Lol...ypc is not a reasonable measure when one player missed significant time to injury and the other played a full season. It makes sense the one with fewer attempts would have a higher ypc what can't you understand about that?

And situation doesn't matter when discussing who had a better season...unless you want to discuss why someone had a good season or why someone might have had a better one ...you literally make zero sense I've wasted enough time refuting your baseless claims

 

[NateDawg122]

Lol...ypc is not a reasonable measure when one player missed significant time to injury and the other played a full season. It makes sense the one with fewer attempts would have a higher ypc what can't you understand about that?

And situation doesn't matter when discussing who had a better season...unless you want to discuss why someone had a good season or why someone might have had a better one ...you literally make zero sense I've wasted enough time refuting your baseless claims

Baseless claims? Alright that's it, let's do some statistical breakdowns. First of all please read over this breakdown:

Gurley: 12 starts, 223 carries, 1097 yards, 4.92 YPC, 10 TD, 91.42 YPG, .83 TD per game or 1 TD per 22.3 carries, and .25 fumbles per game or 1 fumble every 74.33 carries.
Peterson: 16 starts, 327 carries, 1485 yards, 4.54 YPC, 11 TD, 92.81 YPG, .69 TD per game or 1 TD per 29.73 carries, and .375 fumbles per game or 1 fumble per every 54.5 carries.

Opponent difficulty: Gurley: combined opponent record: 101-91 (.526), opposing defense average rushing YPG allowed - 106.45, average YPC allowed - 4.09
Peterson: combined opponent record: 129-127 (.504), opposing defense average rushing YPG allowed - 103.56, average YPC allowed - 4.16.

Statistical analysis of Gurley's 12 performances:

Mean: 91.42
SD: 48.17
# of values: 12
Outlier detected? No
Significance level: 0.05 (two-sided)
Critical value of Z: 2.41155889919
Your data
Row Value Z Significant Outlier?
1 146. 1.13
2 159. 1.40
3 128. 0.76
4 133. 0.86
5 89. 0.05
6 45. 0.96
7 66. 0.53
8 19. 1.50 Furthest from the rest, but not a significant outlier (P > 0.05).
9 41. 1.05
10 140. 1.01
11 48. 0.90
12 83. 0.17

Important values to consider are Gurley's average YPG (91.42), the standard deviation in his production (48.17), and the fact that the closest game to qualify as an outlier is his 9 carry, 19 yard performance against the Bengals. This game still doesn't come to the necessary critical value of Z to be considered a possible outlier (it's Z value is 1.50 while the crit. value is 2.412). Now let's move on to AP.

Statistical analysis of Peterson's 16 performances:


Mean: 92.81
SD: 48.66
# of values: 16
Outlier detected? No
Significance level: 0.05 (two-sided)
Critical value of Z: 2.58567582497
Your data
Row Value Z Significant Outlier?
1 31. 1.27
2 134. 0.85
3 126. 0.68
4 81. 0.24
5 60. 0.67
6 98. 0.11
7 103. 0.21
8 125. 0.66
9 203. 2.26 Furthest from the rest, but not a significant outlier (P > 0.05).
10 45. 0.98
11 158. 1.34
12 18. 1.54
13 69. 0.49
14 63. 0.61
15 104. 0.23
16 67. 0.53

Important values to consider are Peterson's YPG (92.81), the standard deviation in his production (48.66), and the fact that his closest game to an outlier is his 26 carry, 203 yard performance against the Raiders. This game comes very close to meeting the test for an outlier as it's Z-value is 2.26 (close to the critical value of 2.59). This means performances like this were extremely rare for Peterson and could be inflating his totals. Gurley's most bizarre performance (Bengals game) was another rare performance and, since it was a poor one, it is actually making Gurley's stats look worse than they ordinarily would. The deviation in Peterson's performances were also larger even though he had more values in the calculation (16>12) which should make his standard deviation much smaller than Todd's. To put it in layman's terms, Peterson was more inconsistent.

You also brag about Peterson having more touchdowns than Gurley, however he only had 1 more than Todd and had 4 more games to do it in. I've already shown above that on a per game basis Gurley was more adept to finding the endzone. They also had the same amount of games with 125+ yards (5) even though AP had 4 more games. Peterson was also getting more carries per game (20.44) compared to Todd (18.58). AP also had a significant fumbling issue this year which shouldn't be taken lightly. I understand your reasoning that AP's YPC could have dipped due to workload. However, taking into account the inexperience and injuries that plagued the Rams O-line, I'd say that's a wash. If you don't agree with my method of choosing who I BELIEVE was the best RB this year, that's fine. But let's leave it a pure disagreement of methods. There is no need to throw out ad hominem attacks or say that my oponions are "baseless." I've put a lot of work into those rankings and I hope you can see that now. Good night.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Basically, if you stayed healthy and didn't end up on IR... you had a chance!

 

[NJRamsFan]

Basically, if you stayed healthy and didn't end up on IR... you had a chance!

Exactly

 

[NJRamsFan]

Baseless claims? Alright that's it, let's do some statistical breakdowns. First of all please read over this breakdown:

Gurley: 12 starts, 223 carries, 1097 yards, 4.92 YPC, 10 TD, 91.42 YPG, .83 TD per game or 1 TD per 22.3 carries, and .25 fumbles per game or 1 fumble every 74.33 carries.
Peterson: 16 starts, 327 carries, 1485 yards, 4.54 YPC, 11 TD, 92.81 YPG, .69 TD per game or 1 TD per 29.73 carries, and .375 fumbles per game or 1 fumble per every 54.5 carries.

Opponent difficulty: Gurley: combined opponent record: 101-91 (.526), opposing defense average rushing YPG allowed - 106.45, average YPC allowed - 4.09
Peterson: combined opponent record: 129-127 (.504), opposing defense average rushing YPG allowed - 103.56, average YPC allowed - 4.16.

Statistical analysis of Gurley's 12 performances:

Mean: 91.42
SD: 48.17
# of values: 12
Outlier detected? No
Significance level: 0.05 (two-sided)
Critical value of Z: 2.41155889919
Your data
Row Value Z Significant Outlier?
1 146. 1.13
2 159. 1.40
3 128. 0.76
4 133. 0.86
5 89. 0.05
6 45. 0.96
7 66. 0.53
8 19. 1.50 Furthest from the rest, but not a significant outlier (P > 0.05).
9 41. 1.05
10 140. 1.01
11 48. 0.90
12 83. 0.17

Important values to consider are Gurley's average YPG (91.42), the standard deviation in his production (48.17), and the fact that the closest game to qualify as an outlier is his 9 carry, 19 yard performance against the Bengals. This game still doesn't come to the necessary critical value of Z to be considered a possible outlier (it's Z value is 1.50 while the crit. value is 2.412). Now let's move on to AP.

Statistical analysis of Peterson's 16 performances:


Mean: 92.81
SD: 48.66
# of values: 16
Outlier detected? No
Significance level: 0.05 (two-sided)
Critical value of Z: 2.58567582497
Your data
Row Value Z Significant Outlier?
1 31. 1.27
2 134. 0.85
3 126. 0.68
4 81. 0.24
5 60. 0.67
6 98. 0.11
7 103. 0.21
8 125. 0.66
9 203. 2.26 Furthest from the rest, but not a significant outlier (P > 0.05).
10 45. 0.98
11 158. 1.34
12 18. 1.54
13 69. 0.49
14 63. 0.61
15 104. 0.23
16 67. 0.53

Important values to consider are Peterson's YPG (92.81), the standard deviation in his production (48.66), and the fact that his closest game to an outlier is his 26 carry, 203 yard performance against the Raiders. This game comes very close to meeting the test for an outlier as it's Z-value is 2.26 (close to the critical value of 2.59). This means performances like this were extremely rare for Peterson and could be inflating his totals. Gurley's most bizarre performance (Bengals game) was another rare performance and, since it was a poor one, it is actually making Gurley's stats look worse than they ordinarily would. The deviation in Peterson's performances were also larger even though he had more values in the calculation (16>12) which should make his standard deviation much smaller than Todd's. To put it in layman's terms, Peterson was more inconsistent.

You also brag about Peterson having more touchdowns than Gurley, however he only had 1 more than Todd and had 4 more games to do it in. I've already shown above that on a per game basis Gurley was more adept to finding the endzone. They also had the same amount of games with 125+ yards (5) even though AP had 4 more games. Peterson was also getting more carries per game (20.44) compared to Todd (18.58). AP also had a significant fumbling issue this year which shouldn't be taken lightly. I understand your reasoning that AP's YPC could have dipped due to workload. However, taking into account the inexperience and injuries that plagued the Rams O-line, I'd say that's a wash. If you don't agree with my method of choosing who I BELIEVE was the best RB this year, that's fine. But let's leave it a pure disagreement of methods. There is no need to throw out ad hominem attacks or say that my oponions are "baseless." I've put a lot of work into those rankings and I hope you can see that now. Good night.

Packaging changed, message didn't. This is getting boring. As @WestCoastRam mentioned ALL you have displayed here that if TG3 played as many games as peterson he had a chance to outproduce him. Assuming that his production remained the same that is. Which you cant do. You cant just assume his YPC and other averages would remain the same over the next hundred carries and present it as fact. There's a human element to this game that's not just black and white. people get worn down, defenses play better then expected, Olines have bad games, teams get blown out and stop running, teams blow people out and rest their starters. Anything is possible. You cant just extrapolate averages and pretend they were achieved.


It seems as if you're trying to say TG3 was producing at a higher rate than Peterson for the 12 games he played. Cool. Luckily for Peterson the season is 16 games long.

You wont be getting any more replies from me....this has been uh...something

P.S...pretty amazing that this has been viewed over 240 times on a RAMS forum and not a single person has agreed with you.