Rams vs. Jaguars: Who has the edge?

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den-the-coach

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The Rams figure to lean heavily on running back Todd Gurley Sunday against a Jacksonville defense that can create turnovers in the passing game. (Photo by John McCoy, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

By RICH HAMMOND | rhammond@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: October 13, 2017 at 6:49 pm | UPDATED: October 13, 2017 at 7:12 pm

RAMS (3-2) at JAGUARS (3-2)
When: Sunday, 1:05 p.m.
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville
Line: Jaguars by 2.5
TV/radio: Ch. 11; 710-AM, 100.3-FM, 1330-AM (Spanish)

RAMS OFFENSE vs. JAGUARS DEFENSE
Sean McVay, the Rams’ exuberant coach and play-caller, sometimes needs to pull back a little bit, and now is the time. Last week against Seattle, the Rams passed 47 times and ran only 22 times, even though Todd Gurley had been magnificent in recent weeks. The Rams can’t overthink this one. The Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks and interceptions but have been relatively porous on the ground. The Jaguars intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times last week, and Jared Goff looked a little shaky against the Seahawks. The danger for the Rams comes if the Jaguars stop Gurley early or force a couple turnovers. The Rams can’t afford to play from behind and get desperate on offense. EDGE: JAGUARS

JAGUARS OFFENSE vs. RAMS DEFENSE
Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette had a huge breakout game last week against the Steelers, when he rushed for 181 yards and had a 90-yard touchdown run. The Jaguars’ offense has been riding Fournette, who leads the NFL in rush attempts (109), and that’s smart because fifth-year quarterback Blake Bortles has been inconsistent. Three weeks ago against Baltimore, Bortles was brilliant, with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions in victory. Seven days later against the Jets, Bortles completed only 15 of 35 attempts for 140 yards. That’s when the Jaguars decided to lean heavily on their run game, so the Rams’ challenge will be to slow Fournette and make them one-dimensional. EDGE: RAMS

SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rams, uncharacteristically, were rough on special teams last week. Punt returner Tavon Austin fumbled twice, kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a field goal for the first time this season and ultra-reliable punter Johnny Hekker had a rare poor attempt. Pharoh Cooper, the Rams’ primary kickoff returner, is expected to replace Austin on punts. Jaguars kicker Jason Myers has made 10 of 11 field-goal attempts inside 50 yards this season but has missed his only attempt from beyond 47 yards. The Jaguars’ return game hasn’t done much, as former USC standout Marqise Lee has averaged only 2.6 yards per punt return. Jacksonville has yet to record a kickoff return longer than 28 yards this year. EDGE: JAGUARS

COACHING
McVay’s play-calling has been criticized at times this season, including by the Rams’ coach himself. McVay seems to want to outsmart the opposing defensive coordinator at times, rather than make more simple, effective calls, so perhaps the Rams can get back to basics this week. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone took over as interim coach near the end of last season and was retained. Marrone, a longtime offensive line coach, coached current Rams Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Nickell Robey-Coleman in Buffalo. Marrone quit that job in 2014, after he compiled a 15-17 record in two seasons. EDGE: RAMS

INTANGIBLES
This season is different, or at least that’s what the Rams insist. A year ago, they started 3-1, lost a home game, then lost a pre-London road game and lost in London. Well, now the Rams (3-2) are coming off a home loss and play a toss-up road game before next week’s flight to London. Now would be an excellent time to prove that they’ve changed and that this season isn’t going to spiral into failure the way 2016 did. The Jaguars are looking for some momentum. They’re 3-2 and lead the AFC South, but they’ve yet to win back to back games this season, and they’ve coming off a victory over Pittsburgh. EDGE: RAMS

MATCHUP TO WATCH
Rams quarterback Jared Goff vs. Jaguars safety Tashaun Gipson: Perhaps the Rams will be able to run the ball effectively , but at some point they’ll need Goff, and they’ve need him to play the way he did in his initial four games, and not like last week against Seattle. Goff, who had only one interception going into the Seattle game, made poorer decisions with the ball and, in once case, lobbed the ball into the arms of Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas. No doubt Gipson, the Jaguars’ free safety, watched that tape and will be looking for opportunities. Gipson leads Jacksonville with three interceptions in five games this season.

PREDICTION: RAMS 24, JAGUARS 21
This is going to go one of two ways. Either Fournette and the Jaguars run all over the Rams, get an early lead and force Goff to unwisely throw the ball against an elite secondary, or the Rams are patient and smart with the ball, the way they were two weeks ago against Dallas, and grind out an ugly, narrow (but important) victory. Jacksonville will be expecting the Rams to be Gurley-heavy on offense, but that shouldn’t matter. Gurley should have room to run, and that will open up some play-action opportunities for Goff. McVay and Goff need to show improvement in their respective roles, but this is a winnable game.

[www.ocregister.com]
 
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OldSchool

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Sorry with Tavon off punt returns nobody has an edge over our ST with GZ and Hekker.
 

den-the-coach

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Sorry with Tavon off punt returns nobody has an edge over our ST with GZ and Hekker.

The Blair Walsh Project kicked better than Zuerlein last week.
 

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Yes, the Jags are a good 4-3 defense...The Rams are about to open a can of whoopass on these boys. Please bookmark this post.
 

den-the-coach

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he missed one FG after making all FG's and Extra points before, right? How is that playing badly?

It's not, just making a point that Walsh kicked better last week.
 

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It's not, just making a point that Walsh kicked better last week.
I know that I wouldn't trade our special team's unit with any other in the NFL, especially coached by Fassel. This includes the Jag ST's
 

den-the-coach

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I know that I wouldn't trade our special team's unit with any other in the NFL, especially coached by Fassel. This includes the Jag ST's

I agree, but the unit has suffered muff punts from Austin and last week Zuerlein missed a very makeable kick, let's hope the unit bounces back in Jacksonville.
 

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I agree, but the unit has suffered muff punts from Austin and last week Zuerlein missed a very makeable kick, let's hope the unit bounces back in Jacksonville.
Yes...Austin problem is removed and Legatron will be automatic in JAX!:rockon:
 

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That's a decent newspaper writeup. I like the formate. Could use a little more info/numbers and stuff.

The Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks and interceptions but have been relatively porous on the ground.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingYardsPerGame/position/defense

I had to look up the Jags run defense. I thought they were good against the run. Turns out they are bad against the run. They are ranked dead last in allowing yards per carry - @ 5.4 YPC. They are ranked second to last (31) in yards per game @ 146.4 YPG.

The Rams run defense has been much better of late but are still in the bottom tier. They are 24 with allowing 4.5 YPC and 27 with 133.6 YPG.

This could be a fast game with both teams running the ball. Head to head the match up with Leonard Fournette and Todd Guley is about even. Fournette has averaged 4.3 YPC with a total of 466 yards. Gurley has a 4.1 YPC and 405 total yards. Gurley has a big advantage in receiving 22 catches for 241 yards while Fournette has 13 catches for 128 yards. Gurley leads in total TDs 8-6.

This game could come down to who plays the run better. It's clear the Rams have a better passing game but, the Jags have a very good secondary. I hope the Rams mix it up with pass and run. They seem to do better with close to a 50/50 mix. Look for both teams to key on the run game.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/jax/jacksonville-jaguars
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams

**Rams special teams will be better.
 
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OldSchool

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Why is this a 1pm game on the way coast?
I seem to remember discussion that prior to the schedule release the Rams requested the Jags game this week before going to London and making it a 1pm pst game. Teams are allowed a few requests like that.
 

den-the-coach

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Couldn't care less, he's not better neither is Jason Mayes who is the Jags kicker.

Well, it's Jason Myers from Marist college here in Poughkeepsie, NY...Go Red Foxes, but I hope he misses every kick tomorrow.
 

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I had to look up the Jags run defense. I thought they were good against the run. Turns out they are bad against the run. They are ranked dead last in allowing yards per carryC - @ 5.4 YPC. They are ranked second to last (31) in yards per game @ 146.4 YPG.

They had a terrible game against the Jets, which brought up their season average YPC almost a full yard. They are vulnerable on the ground, but they're not as bad as those stats look.
 

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They had a terrible game against the Jets, which brought up their season average YPC almost a full yard. They are vulnerable on the ground, but they're not as bad as those stats look.

Thanks sometimes stats can be misleading.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/400951730
Bilal Powell rushed for a career-high 163 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, and rookie Elijah McGuire had a 69-yard score and finished with 93 yards rushing as the Jets (2-2) ran all over the Jaguars (2-2).

That's two big runs accounting for 146 yards of 258 yards on 32 carries for the two running backs in an overtime game.
Just for fun let's see what they average without the Jets game.

732-258=474
136-32= 104

Take away that game and they average out at 4.56 yards per carry allowed. Lower it about a yard per game as you stated. Looks like both teams let up big runs. Yes the Jags sill look vulnerable against the run which is good news for the Rams.
 

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SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rams, uncharacteristically, were rough on special teams last week. Punt returner Tavon Austin fumbled twice, kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a field goal for the first time this season and ultra-reliable punter Johnny Hekker had a rare poor attempt. Pharoh Cooper, the Rams’ primary kickoff returner, is expected to replace Austin on punts. Jaguars kicker Jason Myers has made 10 of 11 field-goal attempts inside 50 yards this season but has missed his only attempt from beyond 47 yards. The Jaguars’ return game hasn’t done much, as former USC standout Marqise Lee has averaged only 2.6 yards per punt return. Jacksonville has yet to record a kickoff return longer than 28 yards this year. EDGE: JAGUARS
200.webp
 

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nville-jaguars-odds-analysis-nfl-betting-pick

Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick
ODDSSHARK.COM

It's almost hard to believe, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 3-24 straight up over their last 27 home games, 12-13-2 against the spread. But they won their most recent outing in front of the home crowd, and they've moved to slight favorites to do it again when they host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (line updates and matchup report available here)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.3-15.4 Jaguars

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams had won two games in a row but just lost a tough 16-10 decision to Seattle last week. Los Angeles took an early 10-0 lead but came up empty from there, committing five turnovers, including three in Seattle territory, one near the pylon. And kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 36-yard field goal in a key spot. In the end, Los Angeles reached the Seahawks' 20-yard line but ran out of downs.

For the day, the Rams outgained Seattle 375-241 and outrushed them 100-62. And even with five turnovers they came within 20 yards of winning.

Two weeks ago Los Angeles pulled off a 35-30 upset at Dallas, and just before that they won up at San Francisco 41-39. Running back Todd Gurley ran for 121 and 113 yards in those games. Now he'll go up against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 29th against the run, allowing 146 yards per game.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are coming off their biggest victory in some time—a 30-9 pounding of Pittsburgh at Heinz Field last week. Jacksonville trailed the Steelers 9-7 midway through the third quarter and then used a pair of pick-sixes to take the lead. In the end, running back Leonard Fournette provided the exclamation point, bolting 90 yards for a touchdown, securing the outright victory as eight-point underdogs.

For the day, the Jaguars outrushed Pittsburgh 231-70, which means that even without Fournette's big run Jacksonville doubled up the Steelers in the ground battle. Meanwhile the Jags defense picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times, including those two for scores.

Jacksonville now leads the league in turnover margin at plus-10. The Jags also lead the league in rushing at 165 yards per game. So they'll now go against a Rams defense that ranks 27th against the run, giving up 134 YPG.

Smart pick

Jacksonville just pulled off a nice upset on the road, but in the NFL that often leaves mediocre teams ripe for a letdown. Meanwhile Los Angeles is coming off a game it probably thinks it should have won, and the Rams already own a couple of road wins this year. Smart money here at online gambling sites plays Los Angeles.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Rams' last three games against the Jaguars.

The visiting team is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.

The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
 

Dxmissile

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That's a decent newspaper writeup. I like the formate. Could use a little more info/numbers and stuff.



http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingYardsPerGame/position/defense

I had to look up the Jags run defense. I thought they were good against the run. Turns out they are bad against the run. They are ranked dead last in allowing yards per carry - @ 5.4 YPC. They are ranked second to last (31) in yards per game @ 146.4 YPG.

The Rams run defense has been much better of late but are still in the bottom tier. They are 24 with allowing 4.5 YPC and 27 with 133.6 YPG.

This could be a fast game with both teams running the ball. Head to head the match up with Leonard Fournette and Todd Guley is about even. Fournette has averaged 4.3 YPC with a total of 466 yards. Gurley has a 4.1 YPC and 405 total yards. Gurley has a big advantage in receiving 22 catches for 241 yards while Fournette has 13 catches for 128 yards. Gurley leads in total TDs 8-6.

This game could come down to who plays the run better. It's clear the Rams have a better passing game but, the Jags have a very good secondary. I hope the Rams mix it up with pass and run. They seem to do better with close to a 50/50 mix. Look for both teams to key on the run game.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/jax/jacksonville-jaguars
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams

**Rams special teams will be better.
All that screams McVay we win this game if McVay sticks with the running game if he wants to pass 48 times expect another loss and 5 turnover performance. Gurley needs 25 carries this game whether they are effective or not it will only open up the passing game. We can’t be 1 dimensional against this Jags defense