Rams D, a tale of two seasons (specifically for McDonald, Ogletree, Quinn)

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junkman

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With apologies to Charles Dickens, for the Rams D in 2014, it started with the worst of times, followed (after the game at Kansas City) by the best of times.

Before I go too much further, this is a PFF thread, so my usual caveats apply, that if you want to bitch about PFF methodology, go suck an egg. I don't want to hear it. That said...

Most of us diehard Rams fans noticed a dramatic improvement in the Rams D following the embarrassing collapse in our week 8 loss to Kansas City, 34-7, in which our defense looked fecklessly unable to get the Kansas City offense off the field or out of the end zone.

It was an embarrassing loss in what was quickly shaping up to be a lost season. In a season where everyone was expecting the defense to take a major step forward, the defense had clearly and demonstrably regressed. Many were calling for Gregg Williams job. Those who were willing to hang in with Williams at least had to admit the possibility that Williams was unable to convey his complex schemes to what most fans had come to believe was a talented group of defensive players.

In terms of players, the folks who were supposed to be having breakout seasons, the "jokers" as they'd be described in a Gregg Williams defense, were un-impactful at best. Specifically, OLB Alec Ogletree and TJ McDonald. The defense's unquestioned best player, Robert Quinn, had his first GOOD game of the season against KC, but was having a quiet season otherwise.

And the bad part, the Rams were only 3 games into a stretch of 8 games of the toughest opponents the Rams would face all year. The future was not looking bright.

However, what came next was inspiring. Starting with the game against San Francisco, the Rams played some of the best defensive football we've seen since the Lovie Smith days.

The defensive resurgence was spearheaded by those aforementioned jokers, Ogletree and TJ McDonald, plus a noticably raised game from Robert Quinn.

Using PFF grades to quantify:
  • For Ogletree, if you look at the first 7 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -31.5 making him BY FAR the worst 4-3 OLB in the league out of 40 graded (2nd worst was -12.9). If you look at the final 9 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +17.6, good for the #6 4-3 OLB.
  • For McDonald, if you look at the first 7 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -25.8 making him BY FAR the worst S in the league out of 87 graded (2nd worst was -20.7). If you look at the final 9 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +22.7, good for the #1 (!!!!) S in the league!!
  • For Quinn, the light switch came on a week earlier against KC. If you look at the first 6 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -3.1 making him the #35 4-3 DE in the league out of 59 graded. If you look at the final 10 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +31.1, good for the #2 (!!!!) 4-3 DE in the league, only slightly behind Cameron Wake with a +32.2!!
Now, before you ask, was this just a "halo effect", that the Rams D was playing better, so surely ALL the Rams players would be graded up? In fact, no. Most players performance was pretty consistent from week to week with minor variations that in no was looked like "the light switch came on". For Quinn, Ogletree and McDonald, the improvement was obvious both on the field as well as on PFF grades which were practically mirror images between the two halves of the season.

The next question you might ask is, what did this mean for overall D PFF grades? Well, if you look at the Rams over the entire year, their defense's PFF grade of +7.0 was good for 16th overall in the NFL. But if you break this into the tale of two seasons, the team grade would project at -62.4 up to the KC game (26th rated), and +60.9 starting with the KC game (9th rated).

One more tiny cause for optimism. We know that the Rams D fell apart against the Giants. Was this because the Rams were officially eliminated from the playoffs? The Gaines injury? Rookie wall for Donald? The sheer unquestionable awesomeness of OBJ? Who can say? But if we discount those last two games, and just look at the 7 games prior, their defense now projects out at +118, which would have been the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL.

Now, one might claim that I am cherry picking my data points. Well, of course I am, silly comment. I'm a Rams homer, obviously, otherwise I would not be posting on ROD. But as a Rams homer, I'm constantly seeking reasons for optimism about my Rams team. Whether you believe in the PFF grades or not, and regardless of what happens with the Rams on offense (which between OC and QB and OL is a big "?"), I believe at least as it relates to our defense, we all have reasons to be optimistic.
 

Rmfnlt

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First, and foremost:
Throwing back-to-back shutouts in the NFL is extremely difficult and I understnad that... so... with that important understanding...

Beating the crap out of rookie Carr and journeyman McCoy is bound to help your defensive stats. Yes, I know they (Carr and McCoy) also beat some decent teams, but no one saw those teams Oakland and Washington), with those QBs on the upcoming game and worried too much.

The most impressive effort to me was, clearly, Manning and the Broncos... but, even that lost a little of it's luster after seeing Manning deteriorate the rest of the season.

And then there was his brother. A seasoned vet who's seen a lot in his career. And the Rams defense got spanked.

So, while there was a lot to like in that second half, if I ignore a few things, I'm great:
* Peyton Manning was deteriorating
* Carr and McCoy are not good (I think Carr could eventually become good, McCoy? Nope).
* The other Manning beat up our defense

If I don't ignore those things? I want to see them come out of the gates on fire... top 8 defense!

No slow starts... show me this defense is for real right from the get-go!
 

Merlin

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Great post, Junk. I appreciate the time it took to put that together.

The whole of it agrees with what I saw on the field, too. One thing I would add is that the defensive backfield as a whole by my eyes really came together in the second half of the season. And further I make the assumption that the injury with Gaines was significant; he was that important of a piece in our defense.

Looking forward to next year things are bright... The fact they have four starter-level talents among their CBs when you consider Joyner had a redshirt year is extremely impressive. Williams has one of the youngest and most talented secondaries in the league IMO, and if LB was stocked a little bit better I'd say entire defense. Either way, it's an elite unit waiting to happen next year.

All we need is a good balanced offense that scores middle of the road points and this is a significant playoff team, a team that is a threat to any other team in the playoffs.
 

Mojo Ram

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Other than the Giants game the Rams D was excellent in the 2nd half of the season. Week 8 at Kansas City was the last time the D(as a whole) looked out of sync.
 

junkman

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Carr and McCoy are not good (I think Carr could eventually become good, McCoy? Nope).

I don't mind admitting that Carr and McCoy are not ... well... good? great? whatever. But the fact of the matter is that the Rams shut out both teams.

For instance, if you look at the other teams that McCoy played... he put up 13 points in half a game against Tenn, lost to Dallas 20-17, lost to Indy 49-27, lost to Rams 24-0, lost to NYG 24-13. So It's not like every team in the league shut them out.

If you look at Carr, Oakland scored 15.8 points per game, including 24 points in a win against KC the week before the Rams and 24 points in a win against SF the week after the Rams.

Point is, the Rams did MUCH better than other teams in beating up Wash and Oak. That cannot be dismissed.
 

LACHAMP46

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Great work...and I like trends, great predictor of future events....I still say with football, esp. with a game like the Giants in there, you must look at the totality of the whole season....esp. when ALL teams still believe there is a chance....I also believe in the let-down game, the trap game, the game after a rivalry game...the extra emphasis game (ex-players/coaches), the end of season out of contention/tank game....Unsure what motivates these athletes....Lets just go with 16th overall, and say we have a ways to go...
I've always liked TJ McDonalds game...Ogletree has a lot to show me, but is promising...Quinn looked overwhelmed the first few weeks...I think it's hard to have a season like he did in 2013, and get the extra attention of LT's around the league and perform at a MVP level...One reason I believe JJ Watt, Gronk, Brady's are some of the best in the game...Same with wr's too...
 

Rmfnlt

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I don't mind admitting that Carr and McCoy are not ... well... good? great? whatever. But the fact of the matter is that the Rams shut out both teams.

For instance, if you look at the other teams that McCoy played... he put up 13 points in half a game against Tenn, lost to Dallas 20-17, lost to Indy 49-27, lost to Rams 24-0, lost to NYG 24-13. So It's not like every team in the league shut them out.

If you look at Carr, Oakland scored 15.8 points per game, including 24 points in a win against KC the week before the Rams and 24 points in a win against SF the week after the Rams.

Point is, the Rams did MUCH better than other teams in beating up Wash and Oak. That cannot be dismissed.
Agree... and I think I said as much. Extremely hard to throw back-to-back shut outs and I don't want to dimish that at all.

Hoping for them to start and finish strong!
 

Alan

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Great job compiling those numbers and your analysis of them @junkman .

You can color me unimpressed with our D. First half and second half. As long as we continue to give the WRs a big cushion we will never have a great D much less take full advantage of our D-line. Without an upgrade at a couple of positions I don't see us improving in that area either. Average to bad QBs will fare poorly against us and the good ones will pick us apart. Without those much needed upgrades I'll be happy if we can be more consistent against the run next year.
 

junkman

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You can color me unimpressed with our D. First half and second half. As long as we continue to give the WRs a big cushion we will never have a great D much less take full advantage of our D-line. Without an upgrade at a couple of positions I don't see us improving in that area either. Average to bad QBs will fare poorly against us and the good ones will pick us apart. Without those much needed upgrades I'll be happy if we can be more consistent against the run next year.

Yeah, I don't get the Rams on this point at all. The avid fans (e.g. folks on ROD who tend to be smarter than the average bear) have been talking about press coverage and 2 deep S literally for years. Take away the short pass, force the QB to hold the ball a second longer and / or make a tough touch pass over the top of the CBs but under the Ss... and WHAM (sack!). I'm not going to complain TOO much because the needle is headed in the right direction and the results are not bad overall. But it makes you wonder what the coaches know that we don't.

Hope for the future, though. Gaines and Joyner are both physical and smart and can press. Tru Jo is solid and can cover the big WRs, even if he lacks the quickness to keep up with the whippet WRs. McLeod can be a physical nickle back. Janoris... I do kinda wish he'd gotten more disciplined by now, discussion for another post.

I know that Gregg Williams loves his jokers and blitz packages, but it really feels like the Rams have ideal personnel to run a nasty tampa cover 2. Specifically - DL that can generate pressure with only 4, big hard hitting Ss, CBs that can press and maintain inside leverage and play in trail coverage, and generally athletes all over the field.
 

junkman

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Quinn looked overwhelmed the first few weeks

Yeah, I'm kinda hoping Quinn will return to 2013 form with a familiar system, confidence in his teammates and no contract worries for ... well... basically forever. Quinn didn't have a bad 2014, but it was a minor step back from his unearthly 2013.
 

A55VA6

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Was talking to a friend of mine a couple weeks ago, a Packers fan, and he said Rams might have one of the best DT's, DE's, and SS's in the league all on our defense. He was really really high on McDonald and said we should trade him to the Packers. lol

I also think Ogletree and Jenkins have a chance to be great. Jenkins makes incredible plays on defense, but he just needs to stop those dumb plays.

Ugh, it's so frustrating how shit our offense is. If we had even slightly better of an offense, we'd be a playoff team. We have a playoff caliber defense..
 

Rams43

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With apologies to Charles Dickens, for the Rams D in 2014, it started with the worst of times, followed (after the game at Kansas City) by the best of times.

Before I go too much further, this is a PFF thread, so my usual caveats apply, that if you want to bitch about PFF methodology, go suck an egg. I don't want to hear it. That said...

Most of us diehard Rams fans noticed a dramatic improvement in the Rams D following the embarrassing collapse in our week 8 loss to Kansas City, 34-7, in which our defense looked fecklessly unable to get the Kansas City offense off the field or out of the end zone.

It was an embarrassing loss in what was quickly shaping up to be a lost season. In a season where everyone was expecting the defense to take a major step forward, the defense had clearly and demonstrably regressed. Many were calling for Gregg Williams job. Those who were willing to hang in with Williams at least had to admit the possibility that Williams was unable to convey his complex schemes to what most fans had come to believe was a talented group of defensive players.

In terms of players, the folks who were supposed to be having breakout seasons, the "jokers" as they'd be described in a Gregg Williams defense, were un-impactful at best. Specifically, OLB Alec Ogletree and TJ McDonald. The defense's unquestioned best player, Robert Quinn, had his first GOOD game of the season against KC, but was having a quiet season otherwise.

And the bad part, the Rams were only 3 games into a stretch of 8 games of the toughest opponents the Rams would face all year. The future was not looking bright.

However, what came next was inspiring. Starting with the game against San Francisco, the Rams played some of the best defensive football we've seen since the Lovie Smith days.

The defensive resurgence was spearheaded by those aforementioned jokers, Ogletree and TJ McDonald, plus a noticably raised game from Robert Quinn.

Using PFF grades to quantify:
  • For Ogletree, if you look at the first 7 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -31.5 making him BY FAR the worst 4-3 OLB in the league out of 40 graded (2nd worst was -12.9). If you look at the final 9 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +17.6, good for the #6 4-3 OLB.
  • For McDonald, if you look at the first 7 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -25.8 making him BY FAR the worst S in the league out of 87 graded (2nd worst was -20.7). If you look at the final 9 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +22.7, good for the #1 (!!!!) S in the league!!
  • For Quinn, the light switch came on a week earlier against KC. If you look at the first 6 games of the season and project over the year, his PFF grade would have been -3.1 making him the #35 4-3 DE in the league out of 59 graded. If you look at the final 10 games of the year and project, his grade jumps to +31.1, good for the #2 (!!!!) 4-3 DE in the league, only slightly behind Cameron Wake with a +32.2!!
Now, before you ask, was this just a "halo effect", that the Rams D was playing better, so surely ALL the Rams players would be graded up? In fact, no. Most players performance was pretty consistent from week to week with minor variations that in no was looked like "the light switch came on". For Quinn, Ogletree and McDonald, the improvement was obvious both on the field as well as on PFF grades which were practically mirror images between the two halves of the season.

The next question you might ask is, what did this mean for overall D PFF grades? Well, if you look at the Rams over the entire year, their defense's PFF grade of +7.0 was good for 16th overall in the NFL. But if you break this into the tale of two seasons, the team grade would project at -62.4 up to the KC game (26th rated), and +60.9 starting with the KC game (9th rated).

One more tiny cause for optimism. We know that the Rams D fell apart against the Giants. Was this because the Rams were officially eliminated from the playoffs? The Gaines injury? Rookie wall for Donald? The sheer unquestionable awesomeness of OBJ? Who can say? But if we discount those last two games, and just look at the 7 games prior, their defense now projects out at +118, which would have been the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL.

Now, one might claim that I am cherry picking my data points. Well, of course I am, silly comment. I'm a Rams homer, obviously, otherwise I would not be posting on ROD. But as a Rams homer, I'm constantly seeking reasons for optimism about my Rams team. Whether you believe in the PFF grades or not, and regardless of what happens with the Rams on offense (which between OC and QB and OL is a big "?"), I believe at least as it relates to our defense, we all have reasons to be optimistic.

An outstanding post, junkman. Including some right scholarly PFF research.

Two questions for you...

Do you expect our D to hit the deck running in '15? Cause I see no reason why not. I doubt that there will be many new faces on our starting D next season.

Are you satisfied with our starting CB'S of Jenkins, Tru, and Gaines? Or is there a CB in this draft that you might prefer? I have some reservations about Jenkins, myself, but I also believe QB, C, and OG are needs that must be addressed first. Maybe a top drawer WR, too. But our CB's are upgradable, don't you think?
 

junkman

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Do you expect our D to hit the deck running in '15? Cause I see no reason why not. I doubt that there will be many new faces on our starting D next season.

Like you, I don't see why not. I think most of us underestimated the Gregg Williams D learning curve for 2014. Now that we have that behind us, 2015 should be pure improvement. (I hope)

Are you satisfied with our starting CB'S of Jenkins, Tru, and Gaines? Or is there a CB in this draft that you might prefer? I have some reservations about Jenkins, myself, but I also believe QB, C, and OG are needs that must be addressed first. Maybe a top drawer WR, too. But our CB's are upgradable, don't you think?

Don't forget about Joyner and even Roberson and McGee. I'm sure the Rams will add some secondary help late in the draft hoping to find another Gaines. But imho, nothing will help this D more than getting a breather every now and then. Sophomore improvement for Robinson, upgrades at LG (Saffold will move to RG and Joseph will be gone, I hope) and C (Wells will be gone, I hope), and maybe we can grind out a few extra first downs. Better OL = better holes to run through for Mason + better protection for Bradford (or QB to be named).