Rams Could Reshape How Contending Teams Approach the NFL Draft

[BonifayRam]

http://www.ramsondemand.com/forums/rams-nfl-talk.26/create-thread
By Sean Tomlinson April 10, 2018

It's easy to look at what the Los Angeles Rams have done in the 2018 offseason and spit out a poker cliche like "They're all-in!" or "All of the chips are on the table!" Much like poker, Rams general manager Les Snead is taking a calculated risk with the moves he's made.On one side, there are the draft picks he shipped off in trades for cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters and wide receiver Brandin Cooks. By trading said picks, the Rams willingly sacrificed the chance to select, develop and install future building blocks.

That's the gamble Snead is taking. But moving forward, the 2018 Rams might provide the blueprint for teams whose championship window could begin to close once they have to pay their star quarterback.Jared Goff, who took a major stride forward in his first season under head coach Sean McVay, is still under team control for three more seasons. He found himself in the MVPconversationlast season after averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and throwing 28 touchdown passes with just seven interceptions.

Goff has the support of a young offensive mastermind in McVay and a versatile running back in Todd Gurley, who finished last season with 2,093 yards from scrimmage en route to being named Offensive Player of the Year. Everything is lining up for Goff's swift upward trajectory to continue, which means the Rams eventually must pay him like the franchise quarterback he'll likely become.

In the meantime, Snead knows Goff will be earning backup money for the next few seasons. That's why he pounced this offseason, and it's why the future employers of the 2018 draft's best quarterbacks may follow suit in the coming years. In the trades for Peters, Talib and Cooks, Snead gave up an enormous amount of draft capital. But given the Rams' win-now window, they were better off with established veterans than rookies who weren't guaranteed to make an immediate impact.

To get Peters, the Rams sent Kansas City a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 124) and a 2019 second-round pick. Given the talent on this L.A. roster, that second-round pick is likely to be outside of the top 50. Meanwhile, safety Deon Bush, linebacker Kwon Alexander, running back De'Anthony Thomas, defensive end Trevardo Williams and cornerback Ron Brooks were selected at No. 124 between 2012 and 2016.

While Alexander developed into a Pro Bowler, the other four started a combined 20 games. That includes one player who didn't suit up in 2017 (Brooks) and another who appeared in just three games before falling out of the league (Williams). When we look back further, the No. 124 slot has produced just two first-team All-Pro nods and seven Pro Bowl appearances since the merger, according to Pro Football Reference. Peters, meanwhile, has a first-team All-Pro selection and two Pro Bowl appearances on his own.

For Talib, the Rams sent the Denver Broncos a fifth-round pick (No. 160). Between 2012 and 2016, linebacker Kentrell Brothers, tight end Jesse James, defensive end Ed Stinson, running back Zac Stacy and guard Ryan Miller came off the board at that slot.Those five players have combined for 51 career starts. That doesn't sound so bad until you realize 29 of those games came from James alone.

Even the 23rd overall pick L.A. gave to the New England Patriots in exchange for Cooks hasn't been a guaranteed home run as of late. While New York Giants tight end Evan Engram (2017) finished his rookie season with six touchdown catches and 722 receiving yards, Vikings receiver Laquon Treadwell (2016) has caught only 21 passes over two seasons. And although Broncos defensive end Shane Ray (2015) had a solid second season, he has still tallied only 13 sacks over three years and 38 games.Instead of navigating that draft minefield, the Rams used their picks to acquire proven production. As NFL Network's Albert Breer noted, they effectively drafted Cooks, Peters and Talib with three of their first five picks in 2018.
Albert Breer @AlbertBreer

This is what all-in looks like. The Rams’ first 5 slotted picks for 2018 ...
Round 1: To NE (Brandin Cooks)
Round 2: To Buf (Sammy Watkins)
Round 3: 87th pick (now their highest pick)
Round 4: To KC (Marcus Peters)
Round 5: To Den (Aqib Talib)

Don't look at that as giving away draft picks. Instead, consider Snead's offseason maneuvering as him maximizing a championship window by using his picks to add experienced NFL talent. Those picks are one of many tools in his toolbox, as he told The MMQB's Peter King.Rather than selecting a raw wide receiver in the first round, Snead acquired a veteran in Cooks who's fresh off his third straight season with 1,000-plus receiving yards.

Snead could have targeted cornerbacks in the draft, too. But he now can look elsewhere after acquiring Peters and Talib, two defensive backs who have combined for seven career Pro Bowl appearances and 53 interceptions. Both of them will be under team control for the next two seasons assuming the Rams pick up Peters' fifth-year option, too.Snead's strategy isn't without risk, as he learned after trading a second-round pick for Sammy Watkins last offseason. All three of Talib, Peters and Cooks, who only has one year left on his current contract, could likewise have short stints with the Rams. But it's the kind of risk Snead likely won't be able to take if Goff earns a massive extension a few years down the road.

Fueled by Snead's aggressiveness, the Rams could be ushering in a new approach to cap management. Not only is the aim to secure a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract, but then to feverishly add talent before that $30-plus-million cap boulder comes crashing down.

 

[Merlin]

Snead's strategy isn't without risk, as he learned after trading a second-round pick for Sammy Watkins last offseason. All three of Talib, Peters and Cooks, who only has one year left on his current contract, could likewise have short stints with the Rams. But it's the kind of risk Snead likely won't be able to take if Goff earns a massive extension a few years down the road.

The key to a perennial winner is all the parts of the organization workin together. If these guys aren't signed, or at least most of them are not signed, Les is eventually going to find himself falling behind in draft collateral to replace/fill the holes in the roster. And the on-field result will suffer.

So I would say that yes, it is possible the Rams are being very smart in the timing of these things. IF they can actually get dudes inked. Which, to date, has been an extremely difficult proposition for the Rams' front office. So while I am hopeful, I remain concerned.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

It’s not knew. There just haven’t been the fortuitous opportunities, coupled with the right GM and coach. The 99’ Rams had a similar offseason, where key contributors fell into their laps. A few trades and a couple free agents, coupled with a decent draft and existing core players and Wallah!

A team has to be close enough to compete for the big game, to make it worth giving away future players that would be cap friendly for 4-5 years. They need to be in win now mode.

The GM can’t has to be a free wheeler, that is not afraid to make moves. They coach has to be a progressive thinker and a good realtor, who is not daunted by introducing new personalities to his team.

Lastly the planets have to align. Who would have predicted that the Tams could get Marcus Peters when the season ended? Talib? Suh? All three? I posted about this before. Some guys create their own luck. Consider the timing of the McVay hire and then all the things that have followed, How likely would it have been for Fisher to lure Whitworth and Woods, then agree to get Watkins? Do most coaches give up a second rounder next year for Peters? It seems like Snead didn’t have a lot of competition.

Everything has to fall in place, and it did....just like in 99’

 

[Jacobarch]

Their approach will fail if they don't start signing these guys to at least 3 year deals. Guys like Peters and Cooks came with a high asking price and both are on the tail ends of their rookie contracts. We already lost out on a 2nd as you pointed out with Sammy. And we have to realize as fans that Cooks is going to demand just as much or more than Watkins and I honestly don't know how we can afford to sign him. Upcoming contracts are going to be crazy for the rams if we keep on winning. Hopefully we can build around a solid nucleolus and keep our cap under control much like the hated Pats do year after year.

 

[CGI_Ram]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-moves-were-inspired-by-eagles-doug-pederson/

GM Les Snead: Rams' bold offseason moves were inspired by Eagles' Doug Pederson

The Rams never won more than seven games in a season during Jeff Fisher's tenure as coach from 2012-216. And you have to go back to the 2003 season for the last time they had a winning record. That all changed in 2017 when Fisher's replacement, 31-year-old Sean McVay, led the Rams to an 11-5 record and an NFC West division title.

But the organization isn't content with just one year's success amid a desert of losing. The plan is to build on last season, when the team made the playoffs for the first time in 13 years but lost to the Falcons in the wild-card round. It's one thing to say "we want to get better," but it's something else entirely to have a plan.

Which brings us to general manager Les Snead, who so far this offseason has acquired two of the league's best cornerbacks in Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, and signed one of the league's best defensive linemen in Ndamukong Suh. They join a defense that ranked sixth last season, according to Football Outsiders, to go along with a top-10 offense that just added wide receiver Brandin Cooks. There's good reason to really like the Rams in 2018, not only in their division but to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Turns out, it's the defending Super Bowl champs that inspired Snead to be so bold this offseason.

"...I don't think you can ever be reckless because -- let's go way back to 2012," Snead told TheMMQB.com's Peter King. "You know we traded the No. 2 pick overall to the Redskins that ended up being known as the [Robert Griffin III] deal, but the whole purpose of that was to acquire as many draft picks as possible.

"We got to build a young core because at that point it's nearly, let's call it 26 players of the 53 who finished on that 2011 Rams team never played in the NFL again, so you knew we had we had to replenish this with a good core, and over the years you draft it, but last year we tipped into let's call it being a 'legit contender.' So at that point, you're well aware, wait a minute, we want to sustain this, we want to keep contending. And, I'll always say this, I got a simple rule: You can't be scared in this league.

"Look at Doug Pederson this year and, it wasn't reckless but it took courage and guess what? They won a Super Bowl on some of those fourth-down plays. So you try to do that as a general manager, but I also think, and this is long-winded answer, some of the analytics that you have now to really look at what historically draft picks bring you in reality over time …"

In terms of roster-building, the Eagles and the Rams are taking a page from what the Seahawks did early in Russell Wilson's career: Take advantage of the fact that the franchise quarterback is still on his rookie deal and use all the extra cap space to add players around him that put the team in win-now mode. Of course, this requires that you've correctly identified your franchise quarterback -- Seattle, L.A. and Philly can all tick that box -- but it also means you have a small window to win with the roster. In 2-3 years, the team is going to have to pay that young quarterback more than $25 million annually, which means less money for key players at other positions.

Which brings us back to Snead and the Rams, who appear perfectly positioned for a Super Bowl run right now. There's a cautionary tale in Seattle, however, where Wilson got that big second contract but the team is now in rebuilding mode. Last season, they missed the playoffs for the first time in five years and there's a good argument to be made that the Seahawks are the worst team in the NFC West. But they also had a great run; they won a Lombardi Trophy (and should've had another if they'd just given the ball to Marshawn Lynch) and went 56-23-1 from 2012-2016.

Put another way: Five years from now, Snead would love to have these problems.

 

[Selassie I]

Draft picks are basically a 50 - 50 crap shoot in the 1st round. After the 1st round... it's way worse than 50 - 50.

These signings look nothing like 50 - 50 gambles to me.

 

[jap]

The late Al Davis: "Just win, Baby!!!"

 

[fearsomefour]

It always comes down the same thing....good drafting. That's gets harder with fewer high picks. Draft picks are just opportunities. Many times teams have had multiple high picks and didn't find much success with them.

 

[Mackeyser]

As a dyslexic, those types of "jumble" puzzles infuriate me in a deep place...

It's like trying to play scrabble in an earthquake. No matter how I move the letters, they keep moving and I can't make heads nor tails of them.

Btw, what's the damn answer?

 

[jjab360]

As a dyslexic, those types of "jumble" puzzles infuriate me in a deep place...

It's like trying to play scrabble in an earthquake. No matter how I move the letters, they keep moving and I can't make heads nor tails of them.

Btw, what's the damn answer?

sdrawkcab ti daer

 

[ArkyRamsFan]

As a dyslexic, those types of "jumble" puzzles infuriate me in a deep place...

It's like trying to play scrabble in an earthquake. No matter how I move the letters, they keep moving and I can't make heads nor tails of them.

Btw, what's the damn answer?

It looks like to me it is "Dream Team" spelled backwards. KInda clever but not very original or stimulating.

~ArkyRamsFan~

 

[Akrasian]

As a dyslexic, those types of "jumble" puzzles infuriate me in a deep place...

It's like trying to play scrabble in an earthquake. No matter how I move the letters, they keep moving and I can't make heads nor tails of them.

Btw, what's the damn answer?

Dreamteam

 

[1maGoh]

I kind of like what you're doing here. Somebody's going to call us a dream team and jinx the hell out of us. Let's overuse it so it's meaningless and the jinx loses its power. I like where your head's at.

 

[bubbaramfan]

"TEAMREAMD'----Niner's when the got Sherman, Cards when they got Bradford.

 

[Rabid Ram]

So tired of the dream team crap. The only reason the eagles whereb"crowned" the dream team was because of Vince Young and his big mouth. Not one person on this squad has crowned us as such

 

[Malibu]

Like I said in another post NFL Network's mock draft show the last two nights showed the Bucs and Jags 1st round picks going back to 2010. In the 6 years a third we're rated a hit a third we're rated ok and a third were rated a miss. Both teams all their picks were higher than #23 and they still had misses and players that were so so to me that statement tells you all you need to know. Take a proven FA or trade for a proven player over a misses or average first round draft pick every time. You skip the learning curve and for giving up a high draft pick you insure success.

 

[dieterbrock]

As a dyslexic, those types of "jumble" puzzles infuriate me in a deep place...

It's like trying to play scrabble in an earthquake. No matter how I move the letters, they keep moving and I can't make heads nor tails of them.

Btw, what's the damn answer?

Well, if life gives you melons,
You might be dyslexic

 

[kurtfaulk]

you're locked into the dream team aren't you? :burp:

it obviously isn't because some senile old dude just picked the cards to win the west and the rest of the booger talking heads have their heads so far up jimmy g's butt that they can't see anyone other than the whiners winning the west.

.