Rams can make the Playoffs without DIV help

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Mackeyser

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Okay, bear with me, this took a bit of finagling... It's not terribly convoluted nor is it outrageous. It's UNLIKELY, but possible. And really, it's without *much* NFC help...

1. Rams must win out. That's a given in any scenario.

2. Both Detroit and Dallas must lose out.

2a. Detroit. They play Minny, @ Chicago and @ GB. Three division games, the last two on the road. We've SEEN how division games on the road go. If Detroit finds a way to lose to Minny at home, then it's entirely possible they could lose out. Sure, Chicago isn't playing like gangbusters, but it's Chicago in December. And GB is the best team in the NFL right now. The only reason Detroit wins that game is if GB wraps up home field throughout in Week 16. (here's hoping for us that they don't)

2b. Dallas. They play @ Philly, Colts and @ Wash. Now... the first two, I think they lose. That last game... you never know, especially if they're fighting for a playoff spot. Then again, how many years in a row have the Cowboys, fighting for a playoff spot went Romo and lost on the last week? So, no way would I say it's impossible for this team to choke against Washington in the final week if they've just finished losing their last 3 and are on the verge of being bounced from a Wild Card spot.

3. SF must lose ONE game. They play @ Seattle, SD, AZ. Even if SF wins BOTH Division games and go 9-7, they lose any tie breakers and the Rams would still be in as the 6th seed.

So, really, Detroit and Dallas determine our playoff fate, that is if we win out... WHICH WE WILL!!!

That means that this week we root for Minny to beat Detroit and in week 17, we root for Washington to beat Dallas.

Both longshots, but I like that we at least have a path. If you'd told me that we'd even HAVE a path this late in the season a few weeks ago (prior to the Seattle game, really, but even prior to the Denver game), I would have been pretty excited. And, guess what? I AM pretty excited.
 
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Sgt. Ram

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but don't we lose the tie breaker to Dallas if we both finish 9-7
 

RamzFanz

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So... if this is correct and Dallas and Detroit lose out it will happen week 17 at 1pm game meaning that in the Rams afternoon game we will already know AND the Rams WC spot will be in their hands with a win in Seattle.

Oh please yes.
 

Selassie I

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Thanks for clearing that up for us Mac.

I'm glad we still have a chance.
 

TexasRam

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Dallas would not take the tie if it was a 3 team tie between rams cowboys and lions.

If dallas beat Detroit this year than that would make dallas the wildcard winner.

But since dallas hasn't played Detroit it goes to conference records and dallas would have 6 conference losses while rams and Detroit have 5. So dallas is eliminated.

Tiebreaker is between rams and Detroit and goes to team with best record vs common opponents (minimum of four).

Rams and Detroit will both be 3-2 vs common opponents so it will go to strength of Victory...

And I'm not sure how that's determined
 
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TexasRam

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http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures


NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

  1. The division champion with the best record.
  2. The division champion with the second-best record.
  3. The division champion with the third-best record.
  4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
  5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
  6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.
The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
  1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
  2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
  3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
  4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
  5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
  1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
  2. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
  3. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  4. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  5. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.
 
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Mackeyser

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I used the ESPN playoff machine that has the built in tie breaking calculations...
 

Thordaddy

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At this moment I'm hoping we win out and beat San Fran and Seattle in the division which is very do-oable the rest we have no control over
 

Mackeyser

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True enough, Thor... I'm just happy that we still have a path. If we get eliminated Sunday because Detroit beats Minny, I won't be upset because I'm just really enjoying how the Rams are playing right now and that gives me great hope for our future.

And if the Rams close the way they've been playing we really can say that one of the teams playing the best in the NFL isn't in the playoffs (Just like Cards fans last year)
 

LesBaker

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True enough, Thor... I'm just happy that we still have a path. If we get eliminated Sunday because Detroit beats Minny, I won't be upset because I'm just really enjoying how the Rams are playing right now and that gives me great hope for our future.

And if the Rams close the way they've been playing we really can say that one of the teams playing the best in the NFL isn't in the playoffs (Just like Cards fans last year)

I know you like the defensive side of the ball so you have to be enjoying the way it's been going. CLong has made a difference.
 

dieterbrock

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The good news is that they can't be eliminated before they play Thursday night
 

Mackeyser

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I know you like the defensive side of the ball so you have to be enjoying the way it's been going. CLong has made a difference.

Yeah, I really do.

Especially in this "video game" era, any team that can manage to play defense is really that much more special. I mean, the 9ers aren't a BAD defense and they gave up 24 pts to Oakland at home. Now, granted, Oakland was at home, but still...

Colt McCoy and the Washington O isn't BAD. The week before they put up 400 yards and 3TDs on the Colts in a loss.

And the Rams went INTO Washington and SHUT. THEM. OUT.

In 2014, you just don't see back to back shutouts. Heck, you almost never see a shutout. Even the top defenses still give up *some* points...

So, yeah, I'm loving that this D is finding it's groove.

Now, here's the question. With Stanton and Fitzgerald a little gimpy and the AZ running game not exactly where they want it to be on a short week on the road, will AZ be able to do what Denver couldn't?

The only two teams that have been able to score on us since we beat Denver have been San Diego and KC, both games on the road.

I really hope this D keeps this up because they've been an absolute JOY to watch lately!
 

mr.stlouis

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Main Hook
Dallas would not take the tie if it was a 3 team tie between rams cowboys and lions.

If dallas beat Detroit this year than that would make dallas the wildcard winner.

But since dallas hasn't played Detroit it goes to conference records and dallas would have 6 conference losses while rams and Detroit have 5. So dallas is eliminated.

Tiebreaker is between rams and Detroit and goes to team with best record vs common opponents (minimum of four).

Rams and Detroit will both be 3-2 vs common opponents so it will go to strength of Victory...

And I'm not sure how that's determined

:eek:...

I din't know about the three way tie. Better chance than I initially thought! (y)

Also the Niners have to lose a game.
 

Ramhusker

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Yeah, I really do.

Especially in this "video game" era, any team that can manage to play defense is really that much more special. I mean, the 9ers aren't a BAD defense and they gave up 24 pts to Oakland at home. Now, granted, Oakland was at home, but still...

Colt McCoy and the Washington O isn't BAD. The week before they put up 400 yards and 3TDs on the Colts in a loss.

And the Rams went INTO Washington and SHUT. THEM. OUT.

In 2014, you just don't see back to back shutouts. Heck, you almost never see a shutout. Even the top defenses still give up *some* points...

So, yeah, I'm loving that this D is finding it's groove.

Now, here's the question. With Stanton and Fitzgerald a little gimpy and the AZ running game not exactly where they want it to be on a short week on the road, will AZ be able to do what Denver couldn't?

The only two teams that have been able to score on us since we beat Denver have been San Diego and KC, both games on the road.

I really hope this D keeps this up because they've been an absolute JOY to watch lately!

How sweet would it be to dial up a third shutout in a row? All the buzz in the league would be about the D of a team maybe not even going to the playoffs. And when was the last time a team recorded three shutouts in a season much less three in a row??????????????? Let's do this RAMS!!!!!
 

RamzFanz

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How sweet would it be to dial up a third shutout in a row? All the buzz in the league would be about the D of a team maybe not even going to the playoffs. And when was the last time a team recorded three shutouts in a season much less three in a row??????????????? Let's do this RAMS!!!!!

It would probably break all kinds of records. Most unanswered points in a row?

Just found this: the 1940-41 Chicago Bears might hold the record at 88. They won the 1940 championship 73-0, then scored the first 15 points of their first game of the 1941 season.
 

RhodyRams

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Why am thinking 3 way ties go to divisional record and SOS is next after that
 

MTRamsFan

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Here is how I see it based upon the playoff predictor on NFL.com website.

Week 15:
RAMS beat Cardinals
Vikings beat Lions
Seahawks - 49ers (does not effect us for wildcard spot other than seeding)
Eagles beat Cowboys

Week 16:
RAMS beat Giants
Bears beat Lions
Cardinals beat Seahawks
Colts beat Cowboys

Week 17:
RAMS beat Seahawks
Packers beat Lions
Redskins beat Cowboys

If my calculations are correct, the is how the NFC would end up:
No. 1 Seed - Green Bay (Bye)
No. 2 Seed - Arizona (Bye)

No. 3 Seed - Philadelphia vs. No. 6 Seed - Seattle
No. 4 Seed - Carolina vs. No. 5 Seed - St. Louis

If everything stays the same but the Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Week 16, Philadelphia would go to the No. 2 Seed, Arizona would go to the No. 3 Seed, Seattle would jump to the No. 5 Seed and the RAMS would drop to the No. 6 Seed.

I worked this through the NFL.com Playoff Predictor. Here is the link: http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture/predictor?campaign=Facebook_pp