PFT’s Week 11 picks: Rams lose

[Prime Time]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/19/pfts-week-11-picks-6/

PFT’s Week 11 picks
Posted by Mike Florio on November 19, 2015

First, the bad news. I was a horrendous 6-8 last week in my effort to pick games. (I won’t use the torn plantar fascia in my plant foot as an excuse, or the rib injury that I didn’t disclose until game day but that required an MRI this morning.) The good news? MDS was even worse, hitting on only five of 14 and giving me a one-game lead through 10 weeks.

This week, we disagree on three of the games.

For the year, I’m 93-53 (63.6 percent), and MDS is 92-54 (63.0 percent).

Titans at Jaguars

MDS’s take: Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are threatening to turn the AFC South into a three-team race. Jacksonville faces an easy schedule down the stretch, starting with what should be an easy win over the Titans.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 24, Titans 14.

Florio’s take: It’s Star Trek uniform night, thanks to the Nikefication of the NFL. And here’s the spot where I’d make a few Star Trek references if I knew anything about the show. No one knows anything about the AFC South, a division that the winner of this game could still win. Given the state of the AFC South, the loser still will have a chance to win it, too. Edge to the home team. And because I always preferred Captain Kirk to Mr. Spock.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 24, Titans 20.
-----------
Colts at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Colts went 2-0 with Matt Hasselbeck the last time Andrew Luck was out, but against a team with a good offense like Atlanta’s, I don’t think a Hasselbeck-led Indianapolis offense will be able to put enough points on the board.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 20, Colts 13.

Florio’s take: Both teams had two weeks to prepare for this one, which should give them a chance to iron out some of the problems from the first nine weeks of the season. Despite recent struggles, quarterback Matt Ryan remains at a level above Matthew Hasselbeck.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Colts 20.
----------
Rams at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Rams’ offense has problems that a quarterback change could fix, but only if the Rams had a backup quarterback who’s better than Nick Foles. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced Case Keenum is any better than Foles, and the Ravens will win.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 21, Rams 14.

Florio’s take: A quarterback who never will be elite takes on the one who used to be. The Rams are playing for a shot at the postseason; the Ravens are playing for respect. While the Rams remain more talented, it feels like they’re in the midst of their annual underachievement period.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 20, Rams 16.
------------
Redskins at Panthers

MDS’s take: Kirk Cousins had a big game against the terrible Saints defense. He’ll have a rough game against the excellent Panthers defense. Carolina is going to 10-0.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 28, Redskins 14.

Florio’s take: With each win, Carolina is going to face stronger and stronger efforts to supply their first loss. As the Panthers guard against a letdown, they need look no farther than Cincinnati’s struggles against the Texans on Monday night. While Kirk Cousins looked great last weekend, it happened both at home and against the worst defense in the league.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Redskins 17.
------------
Broncos at Bears

MDS’s take: A few weeks ago it would have sounded crazy to say the Bears would beat the Broncos. But things change quickly in the NFL. Brock Osweiler’s first start will be a loss.

MDS’s pick: Bears 24, Broncos 17.

Florio’s take: Chicago coach John Fox has plenty of incentive to beat the team that fired him, and he knows the personnel in Denver well enough to make it happen. Besides, the Bears are on the fringes of playoff contention in the NFC, with a realistic shot at catching the Packers or the Falcons for a wild-card berth.

Florio’s pick: Bears 23, Broncos 17.
---------
Raiders at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions turned in by far their best performance of the season with last week’s win in Green Bay, and the Raiders are on a two-game losing streak. That makes it tempting to pick Detroit. But I just don’t think the Lions’ offense will put many points on the board in this game, and the Raiders will win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 20, Lions 14.

Florio’s take: The Raiders are running out of chances to remain in contention for the postseason, and the Lions are hoping to build on last week’s unlikely win at Green Bay. In this one, the edge goes to the team that still has a realistic chance of playing beyond Week 17.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 27, Lions 20.
-----------
Jets at Texans

MDS’s take: This is a surprisingly relevant game to the AFC playoff race, as the Texans are tied for the South lead and the Jets are tied for the second wild card spot. I like the Jets’ defense to get things back on track and shut down the Texans.

MDS’s pick: Jets 14, Texans 10.

Florio’s take: If the Texans win, will J.J. Watt make a Yukon Cornelius reference when discussing Ryan Fitzpatrick? Unfortunately, we’ll never find out. How you all doin’?

Florio’s pick: Jets 23, Texans 13.
--------
Cowboys at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Cowboys are 2-0 with Tony Romo and 0-7 without him. Now that Romo is back, I think they’ll get back to their winning ways — though probably too late to make a run in the NFC East.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 21, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s take: Good news: Tony Romo is back. Bad news: The rest of the roster is still there. It may sound harsh, but they lost seven straight games. They’ll expect to win this one easily, and the Dolphins won’t cooperate.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 30, Cowboys 23.
---------
Packers at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Vikings have a huge opportunity to establish themselves as the favorites in the NFC North. With a win on Sunday, they’ll have a two-game lead and the tiebreaker advantage over the Packers. I think Green Bay is going to get things turned around, however, and get back on top in the division.

MDS’s pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: As the Vikings prepared to face the Rams, folks said, “Win this one, and we’ll believe in you.” Then, after beating the Rams and preparing to face the Raiders, folks said, “Win this one, and we’ll believe in you.” Now, as the Vikings prepare to face the Packers after bearing the Raiders, folks are saying, “Win this one, and we’ll believe in you.” Come Monday, folks will say, “Well, the Packers stink now, anyway.”

Florio’s pick: Vikings 34, Packers 19.
----------
Buccaneers at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Bucs have an enormous opportunity to establish themselves as contenders for an NFC wild card spot down the stretch. But I’m just not convinced that Tampa Bay’s offense will be able to get many points on the board in Philly.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 17, Buccaneers 10.

Florio’s take: To Eagles fans who complained about Sam Bradford — after Sunday, maybe you won’t.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Eagles 23.
----------
49ers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The 3-6 49ers are only a game behind the 4-5 Seahawks in the standings, but there’s a huge gulf between these teams in the quality of their play. Seattle should cruise to an easy win.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 35, 49ers 14.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks are desperate. Blaine Gabbert is still the 49ers quarterback. Any questions?

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 6.
---------
Chiefs at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chiefs have quietly strung together a series of impressive wins after a very slow start. They’ll keep it going against a Chargers team that has fallen apart as a result of injuries.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 28, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take: The Chiefs are moving in the right direction. The Chargers are moving to L.A. And they otherwise aren’t very good right now.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20.
----------
Bengals at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Cardinals’ offense is firing on all cylinders, and Arizona will earn its second consecutive Sunday night victory.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 31, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take: If the Bengals had ditched the cutesy stuff against Houston and just relied on their offensive talent, they may have won. Neither approach may matter against a Cardinals team that has both the talent and an attitude.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 29, Bengals 21.
----------
Bills at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Bills will play better defense against the Patriots than they did the first time these teams played, but New England will score just enough to pull out a close win that goes down to the wire.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 23, Bills 20.

Florio’s take: If the injuries keep piling up for the Patriots, they may eventually lose a game. For now, not.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Bills 21.

 

[Rmfnlt]

 

[Robocop]

whatever. that's only fair. they've been picked to win plenty of times but this offense outside of Gurley and Austin has done nothing to deserve any respect

 

[DaveFan'51]

Florio lost his Ass last week because he always stick to the Vegas Line, MD was behind him because he didn't!!:rolllaugh:

 

[Sleepy1711]

Yay, when ppl pick us to win , we lose. So, I'd rather have us projected to lose so we and tell them to f off.

 

[rdlkgliders]

It's not unfair, I hope it's not right but not unfair we can beat or lose to anyone, anywhere, anytime..

 

[RamFan503]

Oh look. More reason to despise Florio. Being that I did just as well as he did last week in pick 'em, I'll go with my Rams to win it.

 

[Ballhawk]

I want the Rams to win but I think that they'll get out coached again in this one.

 

[Prime Time]

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2015/1...-expert-picks-final-score-predictions-week-11

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: Week 11 Final Score Predictions
By Brandon Bate  @NoPlanB_

The St. Louis Rams [4-5] travel east to take on the Baltimore Ravens [2-7] this Sunday in Week 11. Can the Rams snag a much-needed win on the road to get back to .500, and potentially keep playoff hopes alive? The Turf Show Timesstaff have their predictions...

Sean Wilkinson [@Papa_Lurch]
So Nick Foles performances were getting ugly. So ugly that Jeff Fisher actually benched him - which surprised the hell out of me. Case Keenum made some nice throws in the preseason, but that was the preseason. It's hard to get worse than a 0% completion percentage on passes longer than 10 yards.

The defense will keep the Rams in the game, but it all comes down to whether Gurley and Tavon can make enough plays on offense to win the game. They weren't able to with Foles, and I don't see a reason why changing to Keenum will change that.

Prediction: Ravens win 21-10

sergey606 [@thatSergey]
Keenum 200 yards
Gurley 150 yards
Defense back to playing like they should

Still a sloppy game with a lot of penalties, it'll be a close one.
Prediction: Rams win 20-17

Mike Dietrich [@dvond]
Ravens still stop the run well, they play 9 in the box plus its Ray Lewis day and they will be pumped. Rams offense wont move the ball and defense will make a few bonehead penalties while Flacco connects on a deep miscommunication by the Rams
Prediction: Ravens win 24-6

VTramsFan [@PeterDunbar7]
Rams on the road with lots of turmoil. I just don't see Case Keenum being the answer and in sync with everyone else. I'd love to see the team rally around him, but last week i also sense the defense starting to tire.

Teams are starting to game plan Gurley now because they realize it's about all we have.

In honor of one of the classic members of this blog "RamChop" (who eventually got banned), we will see the good ole 13 point death score...
Prediction: Ravens win 26-13

EddieP [@iAmEddieP_]
Rams offense won't muster much. Defenses are stacking the box in an attempt to stop Todd Gurley, and as far as we've seen these last two weeks, it's working. There will be no help from the passing game, as Kenny Britt & Jared Cook still do not know how to catch.

The defense will play good but like years past, they are on the field far too long to be effective.

Prediction: Ravens win 20-16

GoRamsGo
Hmm, Rams disappointed last week, and the team looks considerably worse than it had a couple of weeks ago--this much is obvious.

A new quarterback? The first thinking is that it couldn't hurt, but let's be honest, maybe it isn't entirely the quarterback. Foles was never the best QB in the league, but he did fairly well in Philadelphia; he was decent. Contrast that to St. Louis, he's been bad. He's had awful stats, and he isn't leading the team to any points. I think it's more of an overall offense and gameplan thing than an individual quarterback thing.

That said, Baltimore has lost a ton of close games this year; if there was ever a motivated team, it's them. Perhaps they're too far out to rebound and make the playoffs, but the Ravens will be fighting for pride; I could see a strong outing by them against a Rams team that they see sliding.

I don't think the answer is Case Keenum; I'm not convinced the answer is on this roster. I foresee a quick touchdown from Keenum as he provides the "spark" Fisher desires, but I don't expect the Rams' offense to catch fire. They'll score a TD early, and they'll fizzle out.

Prediction: Ravens win 21-10

taiko [@RamsHerd]
Regardless of who the quarterback is, the book is out on stopping the Rams – sell out vs the run and bet on the Rams’ passing game being unable to beat you. It’s a pretty good plan and it’s very likely to work for Baltimore at home, particularly if Frank Cignetti dials back the deep ball opportunities in order to keep things simple for Case Keenum.

Offensively, Baltimore has been challenged, as you could say for any team willing to trade for a Rams WR. But one thing that the Ravens have excelled at is in keeping Joe Flacco clean in the pocket. They’ve given up only 31 QB hits all season. The Bears showed last week how to take advantage of a Rams defense that relies too often on the blitz…

Unless the Rams dramatically win the turnover battle and stake themselves to an early lead that forces Flacco to take more chances in the pocket, I see this one going south and the Rams lose a game that a month ago I would have expected to win.

Prediction: Ravens win 30-14

RamBuck [@lannyosu]
Obviously, everyone knows that I am a fan of Keenum's skill set in this offense. He has a very quick release, is an active scanner and has good pocket movements. I think that the Rams will put up 21 points, but I expect 14 of them to be via rushing TD's (Keenum will run one in).

I expect Keenum to pull what Austin Davis did a little of last year before defenses adjusted: extend plays, find open WR's over the middle, misfire on a few deep passes. Keenum doesn't have to be great; like we've been saying all year, he needs to be AVERAGE. This means something like 220 and 1 touchdown. I think he can be average in this game.

However, I think that the Ravens will figure out a way to win this against a vulnerable Rams team, and Justin Tucker will convert multiple red zone field goals.

Prediction: Ravens win 24-21

northwestRAMSfan [@troilus22]
The Rams defense should have a little better game this time around. Hopefully last week was their one game to give up ridiculous big plays, as they had been among the league leaders on limiting big plays. Unfortunately unless Todd Gurley goes for 125+ and 2tds I just don't see the Rams offense doing enough. Teams have realized its Gurley or Austin and have adjusted. Unless Keemun is better than I think he is, the Rams passing and 3rd down offense will continue to struggle.

Prediction: Ravens win 17-13

Eric Nagel [@Eric_nagel]
Nick Foles has a 33.0 QBR rating this year. Case Keenum's career QBR is 34. I expect nothing from this offense.

Prediction: Ravens win 20-6

Brandon Bate [@NoPlanB_]
The Rams - specifically on offense - do very little to inspire belief, even with the emergence of Todd Gurley.

But here are three things I’m banking on in Week 11:

* Case Keenum - leading a new offense - catching the Ravens’ defense off guard. New starters always seem to have something going for them that impending defenses just can’t account for. Maybe it’s being able to review tape. Maybe it’s magic. I’m not sure, it just seems to work [initially].

* Todd Gurley will Todd Gurley. There’s nothing the Ravens can do to stop it. There’s not much any team can do to stop it.

* Homecoming. Tavon Austin wants to show off for the fam this weekend. He’ll succeed.

You’ve probably lost faith in the Rams. Many have. They’re Ram-ing. But they always show up when you least expect it. Just shy of .500 - having lost two straight - is the perfect time to remind you that they’ve still got "it"*

Prediction: Rams win 30-17

* sometimes

 

[DaveFan'51]

I want the Rams to win but I think that they'll get out coached again in this one.

I don't know why! Harbaugh hasn't Faced a Fisher Coached Rams Team before, and I don't believe he has EVER gone up against him yet!

 

[Irish]

Vegas opened the week as a pickem, but has slowly moved to the Ravens all week.

As of right now, they are a field goal favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move even further.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I suppose that we all want the Rams to win, but would anyone really be all that surprised if they lost?

 

[Sleepy1711]

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2015/1...-expert-picks-final-score-predictions-week-11

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: Week 11 Final Score Predictions
By Brandon Bate  @NoPlanB_

The St. Louis Rams [4-5] travel east to take on the Baltimore Ravens [2-7] this Sunday in Week 11. Can the Rams snag a much-needed win on the road to get back to .500, and potentially keep playoff hopes alive? The Turf Show Timesstaff have their predictions...

Sean Wilkinson [@Papa_Lurch]
So Nick Foles performances were getting ugly. So ugly that Jeff Fisher actually benched him - which surprised the hell out of me. Case Keenum made some nice throws in the preseason, but that was the preseason. It's hard to get worse than a 0% completion percentage on passes longer than 10 yards.

The defense will keep the Rams in the game, but it all comes down to whether Gurley and Tavon can make enough plays on offense to win the game. They weren't able to with Foles, and I don't see a reason why changing to Keenum will change that.

Prediction: Ravens win 21-10

sergey606 [@thatSergey]
Keenum 200 yards
Gurley 150 yards
Defense back to playing like they should

Still a sloppy game with a lot of penalties, it'll be a close one.
Prediction: Rams win 20-17

Mike Dietrich [@dvond]
Ravens still stop the run well, they play 9 in the box plus its Ray Lewis day and they will be pumped. Rams offense wont move the ball and defense will make a few bonehead penalties while Flacco connects on a deep miscommunication by the Rams
Prediction: Ravens win 24-6

VTramsFan [@PeterDunbar7]
Rams on the road with lots of turmoil. I just don't see Case Keenum being the answer and in sync with everyone else. I'd love to see the team rally around him, but last week i also sense the defense starting to tire.

Teams are starting to game plan Gurley now because they realize it's about all we have.

In honor of one of the classic members of this blog "RamChop" (who eventually got banned), we will see the good ole 13 point death score...
Prediction: Ravens win 26-13

EddieP [@iAmEddieP_]
Rams offense won't muster much. Defenses are stacking the box in an attempt to stop Todd Gurley, and as far as we've seen these last two weeks, it's working. There will be no help from the passing game, as Kenny Britt & Jared Cook still do not know how to catch.

The defense will play good but like years past, they are on the field far too long to be effective.

Prediction: Ravens win 20-16

GoRamsGo
Hmm, Rams disappointed last week, and the team looks considerably worse than it had a couple of weeks ago--this much is obvious.

A new quarterback? The first thinking is that it couldn't hurt, but let's be honest, maybe it isn't entirely the quarterback. Foles was never the best QB in the league, but he did fairly well in Philadelphia; he was decent. Contrast that to St. Louis, he's been bad. He's had awful stats, and he isn't leading the team to any points. I think it's more of an overall offense and gameplan thing than an individual quarterback thing.

That said, Baltimore has lost a ton of close games this year; if there was ever a motivated team, it's them. Perhaps they're too far out to rebound and make the playoffs, but the Ravens will be fighting for pride; I could see a strong outing by them against a Rams team that they see sliding.

I don't think the answer is Case Keenum; I'm not convinced the answer is on this roster. I foresee a quick touchdown from Keenum as he provides the "spark" Fisher desires, but I don't expect the Rams' offense to catch fire. They'll score a TD early, and they'll fizzle out.

Prediction: Ravens win 21-10

taiko [@RamsHerd]
Regardless of who the quarterback is, the book is out on stopping the Rams – sell out vs the run and bet on the Rams’ passing game being unable to beat you. It’s a pretty good plan and it’s very likely to work for Baltimore at home, particularly if Frank Cignetti dials back the deep ball opportunities in order to keep things simple for Case Keenum.

Offensively, Baltimore has been challenged, as you could say for any team willing to trade for a Rams WR. But one thing that the Ravens have excelled at is in keeping Joe Flacco clean in the pocket. They’ve given up only 31 QB hits all season. The Bears showed last week how to take advantage of a Rams defense that relies too often on the blitz…

Unless the Rams dramatically win the turnover battle and stake themselves to an early lead that forces Flacco to take more chances in the pocket, I see this one going south and the Rams lose a game that a month ago I would have expected to win.

Prediction: Ravens win 30-14

RamBuck [@lannyosu]
Obviously, everyone knows that I am a fan of Keenum's skill set in this offense. He has a very quick release, is an active scanner and has good pocket movements. I think that the Rams will put up 21 points, but I expect 14 of them to be via rushing TD's (Keenum will run one in).

I expect Keenum to pull what Austin Davis did a little of last year before defenses adjusted: extend plays, find open WR's over the middle, misfire on a few deep passes. Keenum doesn't have to be great; like we've been saying all year, he needs to be AVERAGE. This means something like 220 and 1 touchdown. I think he can be average in this game.

However, I think that the Ravens will figure out a way to win this against a vulnerable Rams team, and Justin Tucker will convert multiple red zone field goals.

Prediction: Ravens win 24-21

northwestRAMSfan [@troilus22]
The Rams defense should have a little better game this time around. Hopefully last week was their one game to give up ridiculous big plays, as they had been among the league leaders on limiting big plays. Unfortunately unless Todd Gurley goes for 125+ and 2tds I just don't see the Rams offense doing enough. Teams have realized its Gurley or Austin and have adjusted. Unless Keemun is better than I think he is, the Rams passing and 3rd down offense will continue to struggle.

Prediction: Ravens win 17-13

Eric Nagel [@Eric_nagel]
Nick Foles has a 33.0 QBR rating this year. Case Keenum's career QBR is 34. I expect nothing from this offense.

Prediction: Ravens win 20-6

Brandon Bate [@NoPlanB_]
The Rams - specifically on offense - do very little to inspire belief, even with the emergence of Todd Gurley.

But here are three things I’m banking on in Week 11:

* Case Keenum - leading a new offense - catching the Ravens’ defense off guard. New starters always seem to have something going for them that impending defenses just can’t account for. Maybe it’s being able to review tape. Maybe it’s magic. I’m not sure, it just seems to work [initially].

* Todd Gurley will Todd Gurley. There’s nothing the Ravens can do to stop it. There’s not much any team can do to stop it.

* Homecoming. Tavon Austin wants to show off for the fam this weekend. He’ll succeed.

You’ve probably lost faith in the Rams. Many have. They’re Ram-ing. But they always show up when you least expect it. Just shy of .500 - having lost two straight - is the perfect time to remind you that they’ve still got "it"*

Prediction: Rams win 30-17

* sometimes

WTH, are these Rams fans or Ravens fans, this is terrible.

 

[Prime Time]

WTH, are these Rams fans or Ravens fans, this is terrible.

The last two weeks they picked the Rams to win so I'm guessing they are hedging their bets. "Let's see, when I pick the Rams to win, they lose, so this week I'll pick them to lose, so maybe they'll win." It's reverse psychology mixed with a cold shot of reality. Sports fans are a superstitious lot by nature.

I notice that our 'Win ROD Dollars By Making The Correct Pick' has dropped way off. This could be because not too many here want to pick against the Rams or because there is a drop-off in interest. Either way it's sad.

 

[ohiorams]

MDS’s pick: Falcons 20, Colts 13.

both teams came from a bye.Atlanta is still confused.

Colts win

 

[Prime Time]

both teams came from a bye.Atlanta is still confused.

Colts win

I'm going with the Falcons but only because they're the home team. This is the first time in years I've picked every home team to win.

 

[ohiorams]

I'm going with the Falcons but only because they're the home team. This is the first time in years I've picked every home team to win.

youll come out positive but maybe like 8-5 is my guess

 

[Ballhawk]

I don't know why! Harbaugh hasn't Faced a Fisher Coached Rams Team before, and I don't believe he has EVER gone up against him yet!

Because Harbaugh is a good coach and Fisher has been around forever doing the same thing year after year, and all you have to do is play two TEs and we can't defend it. Not to mention that we score a TD every few games or so.....