Peter King: Rams Must Trade Up, Draft Quarterback

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jrry32

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I generally concur that the Rams should go after a QB high, but at max our 1st and both 2nds IF it's Goff. Otherwise, he'll to the no. No future 1sts.

@jerry 32, in your opinion, why is Goff that much better than Mannion?

Better accuracy/ball placement
Better pocket presence/movement
Better poise under pressure
More athletic
Better mental processing speed
Stronger arm (arguably)
Better throwing motion with a quicker release
Better feet

Don't think it's really a comparison. I'm not sure Mannion did anything better as a prospect. Maybe his football IQ and overall intelligence. But Goff also has a high football IQ and seems like a very intelligent kid.
 

jrry32

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Yeah, there are differences in assumptions. For instance, yes it is an assumption that a trade would require something close to the traditional draft pick trade value chart - but since that chart is based on what it normally costs to make a trade, and since it's well known that trading up for an elite QB tends to cost more, it is much less of an assumption to expect that to be the cost of a trade than to argue that a trade would be WAY under what the charts expect.

It is an assumption that the Browns would want to draft a QB - but since they have been trying to get an elite QB for 5-6 years, have made major offers to do so, to think that they would be happy with Manziel when a top QB prospect is falling in their lap is ridiculous. They might not end up with Goff, but they will take a top QB prospect - currently the thinking is that there are two.

Oh, and to think that Goff is clearly worth a RG3 trade, but that other teams won't recognize that he is at least worth a lesser trade up, is unreasonable. If Goff is that good, other teams should be expected to realize that he is valuable at least. They might not value him as much, but since other teams are in MUCH better position to draft him, they don't need to in order to beat out the Rams.

It's an assumption to think that the Cowboys will want a QB - but since they considered strongly taking Manziel two years ago, since their 35 year old QB had two major injuries this year, and since cutting Romo in two years would save them over $16 million, it is a far more reasonable assumption to think that the Cowboys would strongly considering drafting a potential star QB when he falls to them.

The 9ers of course are in the market for Goff. And if they feel it necessary to trade up - it really won't take that much for the #5 pick in the draft (where they currently are) to move up. Certainly nowhere close to a RG3 level trade. It is a huge assumption that the Chargers would prefer a bunch of much lower draft picks over a high pick or two, since historically teams go with the high pick.

This is what bothers me - some posters accept ridiculous assumptions as equivalent to ones that actually fit in with history and what is in team's interests.

The problem here is that you believe it's only the other person's assumptions that are "ridiculous" and not yours.

And that's a problem because you have already written off the other person's perspective by chalking what they're saying up as ridiculous assumptions. It means you're not going to consider the points made and you're not going to gain anything from the discussion.

I'm not surprised that you believe all your assumptions are rational and all mine are ridiculous. The difference between us is that I've been willing to find middle ground. You've continued to stand your ground and shout down what I've said because you choose to ignore valid points I'm making in your belief that you have everything figured out.

And the worst of your assumptions is this point right here:
The 9ers of course are in the market for Goff. And if they feel it necessary to trade up - it really won't take that much for the #5 pick in the draft (where they currently are) to move up. Certainly nowhere close to a RG3 level trade. It is a huge assumption that the Chargers would prefer a bunch of much lower draft picks over a high pick or two, since historically teams go with the high pick.

There's still plenty of room in this discussion for middle ground. I found plenty of middle ground with Memphis Ram despite his disagreements with my plan. All you have to do is open your mind and be willing to consider that my assumptions, like yours, are not ridiculous. They are rational. Things may not pan out that way but it is still a possibility.
 
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Akrasian

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The problem here is that you believe it's only the other person's assumptions that are "ridiculous" and not yours.

And that's a problem because you have already written off the other person's perspective by chalking what they're saying up as ridiculous assumptions. It means you're not going to consider the points made and you're not going to gain anything from the discussion.

I'm not surprised that you believe all your assumptions are rational and all mine are ridiculous. The difference between us is that I've been willing to find middle ground. You've continued to stand your ground and shout down what I've said because you choose to ignore valid points I'm making in your belief that you have everything figured out.

And the worst of your assumptions is this point right here:

Yeah, your "valid points" are that the Browns will want to keep Manziel, and that teams will of course want to take much less in trade than what the traditional draft pick charts would expect, and that while Goff is worth a huge trade, other teams won't recognize that. Sorry if I'm not convinced, and expect other teams to be rational.

Oh, and since historically teams prefer higher picks to lower - and there is zero precedence for a team as high as #18 making the trade you think would be no problem - what is wrong with assuming that the Chargers would prefer to trade for a high pick and not #18? You act like it's ridiculous, but since history is against you I think it is required that you provide an iron-tight reason why your position is reasonable.

Your problem is that you assume that all these things in the Rams' favor are reasonable, as if other teams don't have their own interests in mind. it's sad, since you're normally not a fan-boy. But in these threads your arguments are on that level. Here's the thing - the Browns have long wanted to get an elite QB, and the reasonable thing is to think they will try to do so in this draft. Certainly nothing in the past two years would make it seem like Manziel is the answer. Or do they normally bench the answer? And why wouldn't the Cowboys want an elite QB to develop for a year or two? The last opportunity they had to draft and develop an elite QB was Aikman, now they have a chance, their starter had two major injuries this past season, and his contract is such that he is going to be amazingly expensive in two years anyway. And why would a team trade for a late teens draft pick (as you have suggested repeatedly), when they can get an elite level prospect plus another pick or two from other teams? And if Goff's bowl game was so fantastic that it showed he was an elite level prospect, a can't miss type - why wouldn't other teams at least recognize him as a very good prospect, and act accordingly?

All these assumptions of yours are poor, at best.

I'm not sure what middle ground you've suggested. I have said - repeatedly - I am in favor of the Rams getting a QB this year. Just not making a foolish trade to do so. I have suggested for instance that IF there is a QB they like a lot that falls a little that they should use their extra second to move up to nab him. I have NOT been in favor of dreaming that the Rams can move to the top of the draft to get Goff, since it would require mortgaging the future AND fantasizing that teams would trade for far less than the draft pick trade charts, and I greatly prefer keeping my suggestions to things that are realistic and likely.
 

jrry32

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@Akrasian
I asked you to find middle ground and instead, you went out of your way to insult my stance and reiterate your stance that things are going to happen in the future exactly as you believe. Not to mention the fact that you mischaracterized and misstated multiple points from me. It's pretty clear you can't take a step back and discuss this rationally. Hell, you won't even accept my contention that different NFL teams will evaluate Goff differently. So I'll just leave you with this:
 

Memphis Ram

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I never said that. I think all of the QBs except Wentz can. And Wentz can prove otherwise at the Senior Bowl.

Thought we were on the same page, but I guess I'm still lost. You said that the Cowboys can pass on Goff because they have time to develop a later selection. But, for the Rams, Goff can develop on the field and provide effective enough play as a rookie.

I took that to mean that you didn't believe that the others could. My bad. But, if others can as well, then to me it makes little sense to trade up for Goff.

Why? It's a sunk cost. If he's not as ready, you play Mannion. They picked Robinson at #2 and didn't start him Week 1 when he wasn't ready.

They didn't trade a butt load of picks to draft Robinson at #2. Do you honestly believe the Rams or any team is going to trade a butt load of picks to move up and draft a QB and have a legit competition? They didn't even have a legit competition when they added Foles.

And while some would say it's a good problem to have, I'd sure hate it if Mannion got his chance and played lights out with another QB who the team had invested significant assets to obtain sat on the bench.

The better your team, the more desperate you are if you can't make the playoffs. Especially a coach going into the final year of his contract. The Rams should have been in the playoffs this year. But they rolled with the wrong QB(s). And that's why Fisher should be desperate to fix the problem.

Hard to believe that a coach in that situation would or should shell out a bunch of picks to go get a rookie QB.
 
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Memphis Ram

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LOL glad I read this thread the comedic relief was amazing. People making assumptions, criticizing others for their own assumptions, making assumptions based off random assumptions then defending three tiers of assumptions. I've seen @jrry32 say it several times. We don't know who ahead of us is going to do what with their picks or why they're going to do it. Hell a handful of the teams ahead of us we don't even know who's going to be making the picks so assuming that team will or won't do something is asinine. Another thing is the Rams don't seem to have as many holes as some of the teams ahead of us do, making it less likely they'll bundle picks to move up(that much at least most people should be able to agree on). Goff looks by many to be the real deal and somebody the Rams could really use. We've only had a couple QB's worthy of the franchise lable in 30 years. I for one am tired of the musical chairs under center.

Maybe. Maybe not. Free agency hasn't hit yet. And the Rams have a lot of 'em.
Plus, guys like Long and Laurinaitis have big contracts and seem to be declining, IMO.
 

jrry32

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Thought we were on the same page, but I guess I'm still lost. You said that the Cowboys can pass on Goff because they have time to develop a later selection. But, for the Rams, Goff can develop on the field and provide effective enough play as a rookie.

I took that to mean that you didn't believe that the others could. My bad. But, if others can then as well, then to me it makes little sense to trade up for Goff.

I know we both agree that you draft for the future. You're drafting for more than one year. I don't want to trade up for Goff because I think he's the only rookie QB that can play well enough for us to make the playoffs. I want to draft Goff for what he'll be for the next decade.

They didn't trade a butt load of picks to draft Robinson at #2. Do you honestly believe the Rams or any team is going to trade a butt load of picks to move up and draft a QB and have a legit competition? They didn't even have a legit competition when they added Foles.

They should. Especially Fisher. His job is riding on making the playoffs.

Hard to believe that a coach in that situation would or should shell out a bunch of picks to go get a rookie QB.

Maybe...at the same time, I'm not so sure that's true. I think it benefits him greatly. I don't think it'll take a lot from a rookie QB for us to make the playoffs. Similar numbers to rookie Dalton likely do it if our defense and rushing attack continue to play at a high level.

But if Fisher drafts a rookie QB and makes the playoffs, I think it gives you more hope for the future than if he rolls with Keenum and barely makes it in and then is tossed after the first round. Know what I mean? Basically, assuming the Rams rookie QB and Keenum each give the Rams 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, and a QB Rating somewhere in the 80s. The Rams go 10-6 with both and make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They lose in the first round with both.

I think Fisher has a lot more patience from the fan-base and the owner if he has a rookie QB in that scenario. It gives more hope for the future.
 

Memphis Ram

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Maybe...at the same time, I'm not so sure that's true. I think it benefits him greatly. I don't think it'll take a lot from a rookie QB for us to make the playoffs. Similar numbers to rookie Dalton likely do it if our defense and rushing attack continue to play at a high level.

But if Fisher drafts a rookie QB and makes the playoffs, I think it gives you more hope for the future than if he rolls with Keenum and barely makes it in and then is tossed after the first round. Know what I mean? Basically, assuming the Rams rookie QB and Keenum each give the Rams 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, and a QB Rating somewhere in the 80s. The Rams go 10-6 with both and make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They lose in the first round with both.

I think Fisher has a lot more patience from the fan-base and the owner if he has a rookie QB in that scenario. It gives more hope for the future.

I remember that 9-7 wildcard team during Dalton's rookie season. But, there's also the chance that Dalton developed faster or is simply better than anyone in this draft class. (Interestingly enough, even in their current situation, the Rams will be just be on victory off of that number, if they win Sunday. Go figure).

Either way, if I were in Fisher's shoes, I wouldn't trade a butt load of picks and thus bank on a rookie QB for my replacement to develop. Would I use a 1st round choice on a QB? Depends upon how I felt about Mannion and the player available at my selection or within a range that I wouldn't have to give up a lot of compensation.

And whether it were Keenum or a rookie to put up those numbers, it wouldn't alter my hope for the future at all. Though he's been in the league awhile, Keenum is still a young man, will not have even started a full season of games yet even after this season, and thus would still have room to grow.
 

jrry32

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I remember that 9-7 wildcard team during Dalton's rookie season. But, there's also the chance that Dalton developed faster or is simply better than anyone in this draft class. (Interestingly enough, even in their current situation, the Rams will be just be on victory off of that number, if they win Sunday. Go figure).

Either way, if I were in Fisher's shoes, I wouldn't trade a butt load of picks and thus bank on a rookie QB for my replacement to develop. Would I use a 1st round choice on a QB? Depends upon how I felt about Mannion and the player available at my selection or within a range that I wouldn't have to give up a lot of compensation.

And whether it were Keenum or a rookie to put up those numbers, it wouldn't alter my hope for the future at all. Though he's been in the league awhile, Keenum is still a young man, will not have even started a full season of games yet even after this season, and thus would still have room to grow.

Come on, Memphis. Case will be a 28 year old former UDFA finishing his 5th year in the league vs. a rookie 1st round QB. I don't know how you couldn't have more hope. There's a lot more growth potential.

Regardless, I think it's an easier to sell to most fans.

If I were in Fisher's shoes, I wouldn't bank on getting replaced if I traded the butt-load of picks...because I'd have Goff.

Yep, the Rams will be one victory short of that number if we win...and likely one game out of the playoffs (if Seattle loses). Which tells you that the rookie QB won't have to play amazing football for this team to make the playoffs. Considering we're likely going to finish one game out despite having the worst QB play in the NFL.(we're currently at 2574 yards and 11 TDs to 11 Ints...that tells you how low the bar is)
 

Memphis Ram

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Come on, Memphis. Case will be a 28 year old former UDFA finishing his 5th year in the league vs. a rookie 1st round QB. I don't know how you couldn't have more hope. There's a lot more growth potential.

Regardless, I think it's an easier to sell to most fans.

If I were in Fisher's shoes, I wouldn't bank on getting replaced if I traded the butt-load of picks...because I'd have Goff.

Yep, the Rams will be one victory short of that number if we win...and likely one game out of the playoffs (if Seattle loses). Which tells you that the rookie QB won't have to play amazing football for this team to make the playoffs. Considering we're likely going to finish one game out despite having the worst QB play in the NFL.(we're currently at 2574 yards and 11 TDs to 11 Ints...that tells you how low the bar is)

Sorry, but I guess being a fan of a team that had Kurt Warner and Trent Green have similar starts to their careers has jaded me a bit.

And if what you suggest tells me that a rookie doesn't have to play amazing football for this team to make the playoffs, then I could see where one could argue the same for someone like Mannion, Keenum, or another veteran. And with the players obtained with the selections not dealt away.
 

jrry32

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Sorry, but I guess being a fan of a team that had Kurt Warner and Trent Green have similar starts to their careers has jaded me a bit.

Look, I'd love to find the next Warner or Green...but that's like playing the lottery. Not to mention the fact that Green and Warner both never looked back after they became starters. Case has had a very different journey.

And if what you suggest tells me that a rookie doesn't have to play amazing football for this team to make the playoffs, then I could see where one could argue the same for someone like Mannion, Keenum, or another veteran. And with the players obtained with the selections not dealt away.

Okay. But again, I don't make moves solely focused on the immediate future. I don't know about you but I don't just want to make the playoffs next year. I want to make the playoffs for the next 10+ years and win at least one Super Bowl.

I don't see that happening without a top tier franchise QB.
 

lockdnram21

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I agree. Titans seem like a good trade partner. We need to do something to adress the need at QB. Even if we roll with Keenum to start the season and if it doesn't work then make a change to our rookie first round QB. But I must say I do like Treadwell in the 1state if we don't move up.
U can take Treadwell off your list? He said hes seriously thinking about staying in school
 

OldSchool

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Yeah, there are differences in assumptions. For instance, yes it is an assumption that a trade would require something close to the traditional draft pick trade value chart - but since that chart is based on what it normally costs to make a trade, and since it's well known that trading up for an elite QB tends to cost more, it is much less of an assumption to expect that to be the cost of a trade than to argue that a trade would be WAY under what the charts expect.

Again as has been pointed out not every big trade in the 1st round adheres religiously to the all encompassing trade value chart. So to continuously pound the table and insist that a trade in this years 1st round to move up for a QB will follow it is ridiculous. We don't know what it will cost for the Rams to move up because we don't know what the team we're trading Values Goff at or what other teams value him at!

It is an assumption that the Browns would want to draft a QB - but since they have been trying to get an elite QB for 5-6 years, have made major offers to do so, to think that they would be happy with Manziel when a top QB prospect is falling in their lap is ridiculous. They might not end up with Goff, but they will take a top QB prospect - currently the thinking is that there are two.

There are already grumblings that Farmer and Pettine are gone so to assume they'll take a 1st round QB is interesting. The data here is mixed in this circumstance we have recent examples where the new GM/Coach came in and stayed with a former 1st round and disappointing QB to build up the rest of the team first and try to make it work(hint Rams). So to assume that they'll take a QB because "it's what all new regimes do" is patently false.

Oh, and to think that Goff is clearly worth a RG3 trade, but that other teams won't recognize that he is at least worth a lesser trade up, is unreasonable. If Goff is that good, other teams should be expected to realize that he is valuable at least. They might not value him as much, but since other teams are in MUCH better position to draft him, they don't need to in order to beat out the Rams.

So again you're assuming you know what every GM thinks about Goff, we haven't even gotten to combine season with a continual string of misinformation about the prospect yet! But you already know how each and every GM values one of the top QB's and you can say without a doubt that they value him the same as the Redskins did RG3. Remember not every team offered us the same for RG3 as the Skins did.

This is what bothers me - some posters accept ridiculous assumptions as equivalent to ones that actually fit in with history and what is in team's interests.

What bothers others is the assumption that this years draft will follow a certain path that puts it on a parallel to other drafts because you thinks so but you refuse to acknowledge that it could go many ways. As was cited in one of Jrry's posts there were big trade ups in the 1st from 2011-2014 and each returned a differing degree of value. To adhere to a rigid example of "this must happen it's happened once before" is an unyielding assumption. You're set in stone that something must happen and anybody who has a differing opinion is wrong. Yet you keep citing Jrry as making ridiculous assumptions when he even says he doesn't know what will happen that many different options could happen. I didn't come in here to take up the argument for Jrry he's more than capable of doing that himself I just found the dialogue humorous enough to comment on it.
 

OldSchool

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Maybe. Maybe not. Free agency hasn't hit yet. And the Rams have a lot of 'em.
Plus, guys like Long and Laurinaitis have big contracts and seem to be declining, IMO.
But at the point of me saying this it hasn't hit for any of the teams. I'm not sure about you but I don't know all the other teams impending free agents. Some teams in a possible QB hunt could have as many big free agents as we do. Some might have less we'll see as free agency and the draft roll around unless somebody bothers to spend their time tallying up each of those teams impending free agents.
 

jap

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They could go after a veteran...but why? Teams with a young veteran aren't going to trade him. I'm not trading a huge package for a QB past 30 years old (unless it's Aaron Rodgers). The advantage of Goff is that we have him under cheap team control for the next few years and we get the kid for the next decade plus.

I find it interesting that Jared Goff has been likened to a young Aaron Rodgers.
 

Athos

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I was done but this battle back and forth of my assumption is better than your assumption so "la la la" not listening to you is hilarious.

1. @jrry32 is operating under HiS own analysis of Goff not other teams and explaining what he's worth in his opinion.

2. Not every team will want Goff or view him as the right fit for what they wanna do. They want a more impressive physical specimen like Lynch or pro ready like Cook.

3. If Tomsula the idiot what makes you think they draft offense intelligently. They lost Aldon and J. Smith. They could very well go after the best Dlineman Bosa.

4. Fuck the trade chart. Maybe a team just wants a depth of picks to fix a gutted roster or vast improvemts. Titans have their QB and some pass catchers but their run game is garbage and they need a D stud. We have some quality picks to help them address that.

5. No one expected Manuel to be a first so no one knows how teams rate QBs.

6. Browns have a history of fucking up QB selections. Could do so again.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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There are only two QB needy teams in the top 10 picks. And Cleveland, one of the two, could choose to stick with their first round QB for another year.

Why would the Titans trade down? They don't need a QB. You offer them enough value and they'll take it. They have a team that needs a lot of talent...kind of like the Rams after 2011.

They aren't incompatible lines of thinking. This isn't your normal year. A number of the teams picking at the top of the draft have talented young QBs or veteran franchise QBs. It offers a rare opportunity to trade up.

Like I said, though, our only likely chance at Goff is if the Browns choose to pass on him.

The Rams will have to trade a up to a spot that is before the first QB is taken or just after if they want one of the top two. It will be costly and is their only hope of getting a top QB, unless they luck out like Seattle did. Otherwise this team is going to have everything but the elite QB. That is a tough draw when they are in the playoffs or Superbowl with stacked teams that also have a very good QB. The Raiders are suddenly ahead of the Rams when it comes to Superbowl shots, all because they got a very good QB. However, I will be surprised if Fisher gives up the farm to get one of the top guys. He most likely will be content to shoot for Cook, or Wentz. So be prepared to keep your fingers crossed that one of them works out.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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5. No one expected Manuel to be a first so no one knows how teams rate QBs.

I called it a few weeks before the draft. He is an impressive person with a lot of physical talent. He just is not a great QB. But teams talk themselves into QBs when they need them. Manuel was a no brainer for a team that missed out on the top targets.
 

Dieter the Brock

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The Rams will have to trade a up to a spot that is before the first QB is taken or just after if they want one of the top two. It will be costly and is their only hope of getting a top QB, unless they luck out like Seattle did. Otherwise this team is going to have everything but the elite QB. That is a tough draw when they are in the playoffs or Superbowl with stacked teams that also have a very good QB. The Raiders are suddenly ahead of the Rams when it comes to Superbowl shots, all because they got a very good QB. However, I will be surprised if Fisher gives up the farm to get one of the top guys. He most likely will be content to shoot for Cook, or Wentz. So be prepared to keep your fingers crossed that one of them works out.

Conner Cook in a Ram uniform would be pretty cool
 

Memphis Ram

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Look, I'd love to find the next Warner or Green...but that's like playing the lottery. Not to mention the fact that Green and Warner both never looked back after they became starters. Case has had a very different journey.

That may be, but in your example, Keenum had just thrown for 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, and a QB Rating somewhere in the 80s. The Rams go 10-6 made the playoffs as a Wild Card. This will have still occurred during his first full season as a starter, thus providing hope. I'd have no more hope if he were a rookie.

Okay. But again, I don't make moves solely focused on the immediate future. I don't know about you but I don't just want to make the playoffs next year. I want to make the playoffs for the next 10+ years and win at least one Super Bowl.

I don't see that happening without a top tier franchise QB.

In a traditional offense I would agree. However, a player doesn't have to be a 1st round pick golden child to become a top tier franchise QB. For all we know, the Rams might even have one already on the roster.
 
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