Paxton Lynch

[Merlin]

I think it might be wise to warm up to this kid. Because it may be the only realistic chance we have at a 1st round qb

What sucks is that probably won't remain true. Right now he's taken a hit in his buzz factor because of that game against Auburn, but the Auburn defense was no better statistically than that Ole Miss defense where he worked his offense down the field and kept pressure on them the entire game. Media are all over Wentz, but just wait this kid is going to rise like crazy before the draft because NFL teams aren't dumb enough to overvalue one game.

He is 2+ inches taller than Big Ben, a very smooth athlete with a good arm, basketball point guard type guy who is basically what the NFL is going to be looking for in the future at the position. There are starters in the NFL right now that cannot make that 30 yard TD throw he made against Ole Miss given the coverage but he made it look easy. A couple years from now he is going to be one of the kids from this class making a big impact in the NFL and teams know it, so he won't get out of the top ten.

 

[Merlin]

Note: I love that this kid stuck with a program that was 5-31 over the previous three seasons. To me that is a really good sign that he's gonna come in and do the work at the NFL level.

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http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...0202-20120201_1_memphis-paxton-lynch-colleges

Paxton Lynch's recruiting road had some detours before he got to Memphis
The Deltona Trinity QB lit up December's Central Florida All Star Game and colleges noticed
February 1, 2012|Buddy Collings, INSIDE HIGH SCHOOLS
Memphis was the only official recruiting visit Paxton Lynch took. Yet the Deltona Trinity Christian quarterback toured every emotional avenue the buildup to National Signing Day can bring.

He went from the disappointment of an August injury that cut his senior season in half through the overwhelming January realization that the University of Florida might offer a scholarship. Then on Wednesday morning he fielded a surprise eleventh-hour offer from UCF.

In the end Lynch's recruiting rollercoaster ride ended on what he said is still a high note. The jumbo-sized small-school QB who had no offers until he lit up the Central Florida All-Star Game in December signed on Wednesday with Memphis.

Memphis may be several notches below the BCS big boys, owner of a dismal 5-31 record over the past three seasons. But the Tigers' new coaching regime assured Lynch better days are coming and left no doubt they wanted him.

"A had a lot of colleges talking to me, but it's crazy how many say they're interested but then go in another direction," Lynch said Tuesday. "Memphis did exactly what they said they were going to do."

Being honest with a 17-year-old shouldn't be too much to ask. But that may be easier said than done in the wacky season. College coaches troll the land for bluechippers but are never certain how close they are to their catch limit until it's over. Commitments are non-binding until letters of intent hit the fax machine on National Signing Day so recruiters always teeter between underselling and oversigning.

"USF was saying they were going to offer me over the summer. That kind of fell off the table," Lynch said.

The bruised kneecap he suffered in preseason play may have scared some off. But the 6-5, 225-pounder flexed a big-time arm in a MVP performance against big-school stars in the all star game. Colleges were standing in line the next day and FAMU and FIT quickly offered.

Then UF called and things got complicated.

New Gators offensive coordinator Brent Pease told Lynch they liked his upside, but would sign only one QB and were pursuing another in Philadelphia passer Skyler Mornhinweg.

Lynch was in limbo for a week until Mornhinweg decommitted from Penn State and chose the Gators last Friday.

"Other schools backed off Paxton because Florida was in play," Lynch's father, David, said.

Wisely, Lynch lined up last weekend's Memphis visit even as he anxiously awaited word from Gainesville. He was officially offered a scholarship on Saturday afternoon and committed several hours later, just before watching Memphis beat Marshall in basketball.

"I didn't just take Memphis to have a school on National Signing Day," Lynch said. "It felt right."

Even if it took a winding road to get there.

 

[DR RAM]

OK, been watching more of Lynch, because I don't think we'll have a shot at Goff, or Wentz, unless we go to #3 or #4. There is a lot to like here, in this prospect. Rolls left and right, and looks comfortable doing so. He has a pretty quick release, but occasionally drops his off hand too quickly, IMO. his arm strength appears to be above average, but not quite elite. He could get there.

He scans the field pretty quickly, when his primary isn't there, but sometimes misses open targets. Throws with good touch, the ball looks very catchable. He moves very well, within the pocket. Quick feet for a long guy. Shows a burst of speed when he runs with it, and runs with a little tilt. Doesn't run with a reckless abandon...that's a plus. It's hard to gauge his speed, some think it's in the 4.5 range. I think he's more in the 4.75 range, which is more than adequate with his other abilities.

What I like the most about him, is that, even when he appears to decide to tuck and run, he is still looking downfield to throw it. Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't, but the threat is there.

What I don't like the most, is that sometimes I see him load up a bit, when he throws it deep, and safeties will pick up on that. It's just a mechanics thing, and I don't think he needs to do it, nor does he always do it. Other than that, just competition, level of, and production in big games that has been, probably overstated, and what will his learning curve be, which applies to any college QB to some extent.

So, I agree with a lot of guys here, he may be the only guy we get a shot at, but there is a lot to like. I believe he would be the best QB talent, by a margin, on our roster from day 1, but don't think he would start day 1.

 

[Merlin]

He is going to be very tempting to Chip Kelly. Between him and Kaepernick Chip would have a very good QB group that fits what he wants to do very well.

Since he and Goff can't do the Senior Bowl teams will be talking Wentz more than them up until the pro days and workout period. I think the top 3 are close enough in overall ability with different strengths/weaknesses that they will end up lumped fairly close together on most boards. All three are bigtime QB talents IMO.

 

[PressureD41]

Well hears to hoping Hue Jackson sells his team to draft non QB and go the Dalton route in rd 2. C. Cook might slide into rd 2 w/ all the bad crap being yapped about him

 

[BonifayRam]

He is going to be very tempting to Chip Kelly. Between him and Kaepernick Chip would have a very good QB group that fits what he wants to do very well.

Since he and Goff can't do the Senior Bowl teams will be talking Wentz more than them up until the pro days and workout period. I think the top 3 are close enough in overall ability with different strengths/weaknesses that they will end up lumped fairly close together on most boards. All three are bigtime QB talents IMO.

Who will be the WR's for Chip Kelley & all his high valued collection of youthful QB's Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick & Carson Wentz the next few yrs? Torrey Smith is the only legit. Boldin is a UFA, the rest are WWC's.

 

[Merlin]

Who will be the WR's for Chip Kelley & all his high valued collection of youthful QB's Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick & Carson Wentz the next few yrs? Torrey Smith is the only legit. Boldin is a UFA, the rest are WWC's.

I see Chip as one of our primary enemies in both the FA season and the draft. He will have the same plan as the Rams: sign a solid FA and draft 1 or 2 guys. Even if he goes QB at 6 overall he's still got the ability to address WR in round 2 and 3.

With both he has the advantage too. In FA the wideouts are gonna know big numbers await in his system. In the draft Chip picks before us each round. But either way his draft strategy is close to ours with the difference being he might not be as desperate to get a QBOTF if he believes in Kaep.

 

[8to12]

After watching tape of a couple of games of Lynch, I am not confident about using a high 1st round pick and starting him opening day. First, I will note that he has many tools that others have described. I personally like his ability to move around in the pocket and re-focus downfield. However, I question his competency in reading defenses and making good decisions at the next level. In all of the plays I saw of Lynch, I never saw him scanning the field, i.e. seeing his head move left to right or right to left. He seemed to always eye down his first or primary option. If his primary was taken out, he would sometimes tuck the ball and run, and sometimes he would buy time in the pocket but never saw him scan the field for other options. Much of this is probably due to the system of the Spread offense that Memphis uses. Bottom line is Lynch looks good when his primary option is open. How is he going to process against a NFL caliber defense? A player to compare to from last year is Hundley from UCLA.
In addition to the individual games I watched today, there was an evaluator who broke down Goff, Lynch, and Cook all in one sitting. He broke down 2 games each. What stood out was Goff's and Cook's ability to scan the field. These two also made more NFL caliber throws. Like many others , my first choice would be Goff. But, with a choice between Lynch and Cook, I would go with Cook.

 

[DR RAM]

After watching tape of a couple of games of Lynch, I am not confident about using a high 1st round pick and starting him opening day. First, I will note that he has many tools that others have described. I personally like his ability to move around in the pocket and re-focus downfield. However, I question his competency in reading defenses and making good decisions at the next level. In all of the plays I saw of Lynch, I never saw him scanning the field, i.e. seeing his head move left to right or right to left. He seemed to always eye down his first or primary option. If his primary was taken out, he would sometimes tuck the ball and run, and sometimes he would buy time in the pocket but never saw him scan the field for other options. Much of this is probably due to the system of the Spread offense that Memphis uses. Bottom line is Lynch looks good when his primary option is open. How is he going to process against a NFL caliber defense? A player to compare to from last year is Hundley from UCLA.
In addition to the individual games I watched today, there was an evaluator who broke down Goff, Lynch, and Cook all in one sitting. He broke down 2 games each. What stood out was Goff's and Cook's ability to scan the field. These two also made more NFL caliber throws. Like many others , my first choice would be Goff. But, with a choice between Lynch and Cook, I would go with Cook.

Just going political on you, and I think that it is valid, although it maybe, shouldn't be. It will be hard to sell Cook, and his personality to a new market, where the Rams will need to get kids, and teenagers to embrace this team for it to be successful.

Yes, in the end, winning always means more. I get that, I just wanted to throw out another perspective. I would hope that we would pick Cook, if we thought he'd be a better NFL QB in a couple years. I just don't know if we would.

Hundley was the best QB in the preseason last year, not just rookie, and he did all the things that people said he couldn't do. He also got some premium snaps with first team guys. I still think he'll be a good NFL QB some day. I still wish we would have taken him, especially when he went so cheaply. In Lynch, and in Hundley, and in every college QB, they are not trained to be NFL prospects, they are trained to win college games. Obviously, that what makes it so difficult to make a selection, because you have to project a players size, personality, skills, and abilities, and the projections don't always work, but that works both ways.

 

[jrry32]

After watching tape of a couple of games of Lynch, I am not confident about using a high 1st round pick and starting him opening day. First, I will note that he has many tools that others have described. I personally like his ability to move around in the pocket and re-focus downfield. However, I question his competency in reading defenses and making good decisions at the next level. In all of the plays I saw of Lynch, I never saw him scanning the field, i.e. seeing his head move left to right or right to left. He seemed to always eye down his first or primary option. If his primary was taken out, he would sometimes tuck the ball and run, and sometimes he would buy time in the pocket but never saw him scan the field for other options. Much of this is probably due to the system of the Spread offense that Memphis uses. Bottom line is Lynch looks good when his primary option is open. How is he going to process against a NFL caliber defense? A player to compare to from last year is Hundley from UCLA.
In addition to the individual games I watched today, there was an evaluator who broke down Goff, Lynch, and Cook all in one sitting. He broke down 2 games each. What stood out was Goff's and Cook's ability to scan the field. These two also made more NFL caliber throws. Like many others , my first choice would be Goff. But, with a choice between Lynch and Cook, I would go with Cook.

He does it. It's not as consistent as I'd like. And he still has improving to do but you'll see it. His offense does predetermine a lot of his throws so you don't see him going through progressions as often as guys like Goff, Wentz, and Cook are.

Here are a few examples from the Cincy game:
View: https://zippy.gfycat.com/LikelyMiniatureChafer.webm

Two examples in this clip...the first play, he initially looks right before coming back left and hitting the WR on time on the curl route. On the second play, he has a boot-leg and he looks to his first two progressions on the right before coming back left to find the TE on the crossing route.

View: https://zippy.gfycat.com/CalculatingAdventurousBettong.webm

Initially looks left to the trips side of the field before coming back right and finding the WR at the first down marker in the hole in the zone.

View: https://zippy.gfycat.com/ChiefNarrowBelugawhale.webm

It's not as easy to tell on this one but he goes through 3 progressions in a very short amount of time. Looks left initially then goes to the TE in the middle and then quickly makes the throw to the WR near the right sideline while under pressure.

It's definitely subtle because Memphis calls so many plays where Lynch can go to his first read. But it's there. Right now, my big issues with Lynch are that he's not very deceptive with his eyes. Definitely stares down targets at times. He needs to be more consistent with his lower body mechanics. Throws off his back-foot and off-base far too often. Needs to step into the throw when he has a clean pocket. Doesn't always do it. He short-arms some easy throws and that shouldn't happen because it messes with your accuracy. And he needs to do a better job of knowing when to throw the ball away. Tries to be the hero at times and this leads him to force balls into coverage which will lead to INTs at the next level. In his defense, he got much better at not forcing things as a Junior. Also needs to protect himself while running more consistently.

@jjab360
Remember when you asked me what led me to believe that Lynch has 4.5/4.6 wheels? I said that it's hard to illustrate it because he doesn't really have any long college runs. Here are a couple good examples of plays where I saw flashes of how athletic he is:
View: https://zippy.gfycat.com/LikelyBlissfulLangur.webm

Craziest thing about this play? If you watch the replay, he doesn't appear to be running all out. Kind of like Tavon when he's kind of gliding at about 85% to allow himself to read the field and decide what he'll do next.

View: https://zippy.gfycat.com/BlackandwhiteEverlastingIndianabat.webm

On this play, he comes to a complete stop and then accelerates and leaves the OLB in the dust as he gets around the edge. Intelligently goes down and protects himself rather than trying to gain more yards.

The thing about Lynch is that he's not as natural of a runner as guys like Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick so you won't see him do as amazing things with his legs. He's more like Andrew Luck who ran in the 4.5/4.6 range. He's sneaky athletic. He's not going out there looking to run on every play. But if you underestimate his legs, he'll make you pay.

 

[jjab360]

Nice breakdown, jrry.

I probably initially underestimated his speed and arm strength from some of those clips, I'm starting to come around on him.

 

[jrry32]

Nice breakdown, jrry.

I probably initially underestimated his speed and arm strength from some of those clips, I'm starting to come around on him.

Honestly, I think I underestimated his arm strength. He doesn't use his lower body consistently so we don't always see what his arm can do. But I flipped on the BYU game on youtube from 2014 and there were some 30+ yard throws in that game that were absolute frozen ropes. Frankly, it wasn't a good game for Lynch (uneven performance) but you could really see how strong his arm was in that game. You could also see how much he has progressed in a short time. That was their bowl game from the 2014 season and his lower body mechanics and decision making have progressed significantly since then.

He doesn't quite have Wentz's arm but I think he has Big Ben/Jameis Winston level arm strength.

 

[Merlin]

@jrry32 yes his footwork is his biggest issue. I've gone back and rewatched some of his games and it is definitely in need of work for greater consistency. But what's interesting is he's still pretty accurate and even when throwing on the run.

Dude is raw but man he's got a huge ceiling. And given Snead/Fish's fascination with ceiling I gotta think they have him very high.

 

[8to12]

He does it. It's not as consistent as I'd like. And he still has improving to do but you'll see it. His offense does predetermine a lot of his throws so you don't see him going through progressions as often as guys like Goff, Wentz, and Cook are.


@jrry32, Thank you for the post and pointing out some of the plays that I missed. Some of them were subtle but it helps me understand that he does have some ability to scan the field for other options.

 

[jrry32]

@jrry32 yes his footwork is his biggest issue. I've gone back and rewatched some of his games and it is definitely in need of work for greater consistency. But what's interesting is he's still pretty accurate and even when throwing on the run.

Dude is raw but man he's got a huge ceiling. And given Snead/Fish's fascination with ceiling I gotta think they have him very high.

This is true. Won't be a bit surprised if they rate Lynch and Wentz over Goff.

 

[LACHAMP46]

because I don't think we'll have a shot at Goff, or Wentz, unless we go to #3 or #4.

There's always hope doctor...always...

 

[Merlin]

Won't be a bit surprised if they rate Lynch and Wentz over Goff.

I gotta admit I have been harboring a secret hope that Goff slides to 3rd QB. When you look at the types who rise during the Combine and Personal Workout phases it is usually based on the measurables which is where both Lynch and Wentz will stand out since they're both huge, athletic, and have big arms. I don't think it's necessarily likely or anything, but yeah it is possible.

And fast forwarding to the combine... I have a feeling we may see some top guys throw there. Wentz, Lynch, and Goff as a top group strike me as a pretty bold bunch and if one of them elects to throw the others might follow suit. Not to mention there are so many guys in that 2nd and 3rd tier who might want to prove themselves headlined by Cook who could counter his decision to skip the Senior Bowl a bit by putting himself out there.

Anyway I've given up on hopes of the Rams moving way up. My hope now is that they just get into the top 10 and that Goff slides to them. Wouldn't that be great?

 

[OC_Ram]

I like it Jrry

 

[PressureD41]

Lets hope those "trade rumours" w/ Tenn happen!!! At this point I could "live" w/ an almost RG3 trade to get our guy

 

[tahoe]

I gotta admit I have been harboring a secret hope that Goff slides to 3rd QB. When you look at the types who rise during the Combine and Personal Workout phases it is usually based on the measurables which is where both Lynch and Wentz will stand out since they're both huge, athletic, and have big arms. I don't think it's necessarily likely or anything, but yeah it is possible.

And fast forwarding to the combine... I have a feeling we may see some top guys throw there. Wentz, Lynch, and Goff as a top group strike me as a pretty bold bunch and if one of them elects to throw the others might follow suit. Not to mention there are so many guys in that 2nd and 3rd tier who might want to prove themselves headlined by Cook who could counter his decision to skip the Senior Bowl a bit by putting himself out there.

Anyway I've given up on hopes of the Rams moving way up. My hope now is that they just get into the top 10 and that Goff slides to them. Wouldn't that be great?

Thinking about it Goff reminds me of Bridgewater and like him everyone thought he would be the first QB selected. We all know now that bridgewater slid so maybe you are right and Goff could slide behind the athletic freaks.