- Joined
- Jul 1, 2013
- Messages
- 7,820
- Name
- Don
Sporting News
Vinnie Iyer10 hrs ago
Here are the 11 teams whose win total has been most greatly exaggerated.
1. 49ers
Win total over/under: 5.5
The 49ers finished 5-11 last season, in last place in the NFC West. It's hard to believe they'll be a half-win better in a division that remains tough at the top while facing the league's hardest schedule. There's a lot they need to figure out fast for Chip Kelly, including finding a starting quarterback. Going to full rebuild mode, four wins looks like the absolute ceiling.
MORE: Gabbert is solution to 49ers' Kaepernick problems
2. Eagles
© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7
Here's the flip side of the Chip Kelly effect. Although the Eagles have plenty of pieces that can help ease the transition to Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz, they will drop hard from 7-9 and second place in the NFC East. The rest of the division still looks in better shape with the running game and defense, and Philadelphia fell farther behind at quarterback. Even getting up to five wins would be surprising.
MORE: Breaking down Eagles position-by-position
3. Lions
© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7
Here'a another team set exactly where it finished last season. That's crazy, because the Lions' most important offensive player (Calvin Johnson) retired and they still haven't replaced their former most important defensive player (Ndamukong Suh). The Packers and Vikings will strengthen their positions at the top of the NFC North. Chicago, only one game behind Detroit, did more to improve in the short term and has the easier schedule. The Leos will be last, with five or fewer wins.
MORE: Teryl Austin says coaching auditions part-sham
4. Browns
Vegas has the Browns jumping up from 3-13, despite the fact they decided to go into bigger slash and burn mode with Hue Jackson and Sashi Brown. There will be even less chance to pick up any AFC North wins with a healthy Ravens team right there with the Steelers and Bengals challenging for first place. Drawing both the AFC East and NFC East on the schedule also is brutal. The Browns are much more likely to go two wins backward.
MORE: NFL's second-year breakout players
5. Titans
There's a lot of buzz about what Marcus Mariota can do in Year 2, especially with Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray joining him in the backfield. But everyone needs to keep slowing the roll in Nashville. A three-win jump from 3-13 seems tricky when you consider the Texans made some huge moves, the Colts get Andrew Luck back and the Jaguars are the much better bet to shoot up. Even with the offensive excitement, plenty of defensive holes remain. The Titans also have plenty of traps outside of the division in the AFC West and NFC North. Sell on Tennessee.
MORE: NFL teams with best chance to go from worst to first
6. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers jumped from 2-14 to 6-10 with Jameis Winston, but that also was with Lovie Smith. They're trying to keep up the offensive mojo for Winston with Dirk Koetter, but their defense, although talented in many years, is undergoing another transition to Mike Smith. Their strength of schedule is fifth-toughest. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans all remain better. It's also a bad sign they finished 2015 on a four-game losing streak. It would be surprising if they stayed static as high as six.
MORE: Way-too-early 2017 NFL Mock Draft
7. Rams
The Rams' move to Los Angeles comes with a half-win bump. It's hard to trust a team to get to .500 after it has struggled so much to do so with Jeff Fisher, even with a top defense. Now they are undergoing more QB change with rookie Jared Goff and adjusting to new digs in the same old brutal NFC West. Only the Falcons and 49ers have more difficult overall schedules. It's safer to think the Rams will slide to five or six wins.
MORE: Rams going big, but now must win big in a hurry
8. Dolphins
There must be high expectations for the start of the Adam Gase era. Miami was 6-10 last season with one of the league's most talented rosters, so there comes the strange hope it can slide up to one more win. As Gase works on Ryan Tannehill and Vance Joseph reboots the defense, there will be growing pains, especially coming off a meh offseason of personnel upgrades. They are more likely to stay right there in the AFC East basement.
MORE: OTAs and minicamp schedule for every team
9. Jets
Vegas was right to drop the Jets from 10-6, but it's probably not enough. Their schedule is even tougher than seventh overall in the NFL because it's front-loaded with a lot of land mines. They also have installed a big cloud over their offense by leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick hanging this late into the offseason. They were subpar early last season before streaking in November thanks to favorable opponents and narrow escapes. That should even out to more like 6-10 in '16.
MORE: Inside the minds of the Jets, Fitzpatrick
10. Chargers
There must be something in those powder-blue throwbacks to make Vegas believe San Diego will be three games better than last season. Denver and Kansas City will remain two nasty teams atop the AFC West, and now Oakland is in position to make them sweat as a potential playoff team, too. As for the Chargers, they had some nice additions (Joey Bosa, Travis Benjamin, Casey Hayward), but their offense isn't as good as it looks and their defense is still trying to put pieces together.
MORE: NFL second-year breakouts on offense
11. Colts
Does Andrew Luck make the difference of two wins? Sure, they have their franchise QB back and it should help every aspect of their offense, but overall it's been a quiet offseason where the the key losses have outweighed the additions. Indy is a whole new brand of enigmatic in Chuck Pagano's second chance, making the team bust or boom in the standings.
MORE: Why should Andrew Luck re-sign with the Colts?
