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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...g-james-laurinaitis-most-overpaid-players-nfl
Martinez/Getty ImagesThe 2013 campaign did not go so well for Eli Manning, as he finished with 27 interceptions.
It has become common practice for fans to rant about how certain players are overpaid, but there's a smarter way of attacking that gripe: the Jahnke Valuation Model (JVM), which measures how much money a player should have made based on the quality of his play.
It takes into account how well the athlete played compared to other players at the same position, and how much money teams devote to that position. It is based completely on their 2013 performance, so it doesn't take into account previous years, and is not meant to gauge how much they should earn in the future. In general, it is just a tool for measuring how much money a team was over- or underpaying for a player for the season.
In this file, I'll use the model to see which players were overpaid the most based on how well they played in 2013.
Obviously anyone who missed most or all of the season due to injury didn't live up to expectations, so this list is limited to players who received at least 500 snaps last season. Plenty of players who were the most overvalued in 2013 -- like Jared Allen, Julius Peppers andChris Johnson -- had much smaller contracts, so they also aren't included.
Unless these players show big improvement this fall, they will be among the most overvalued players of 2014 as well. Here are the top 10 most overpaid players for the 2013 season:
1. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
2013 cap hit: $20.8 million
2013 JVM: $5.4M
Value differential: $15.4M
It seemed as if Manning was improving year after year and had worked his way into the second tier of quarterbacks. He seemed to hit a peak in his Super Bowl season of 2011, and then took a minor step back in 2012. This was followed by 2013, which was a major step in the wrong direction.
Manning's accuracy percentage of 57.5 was second-worst among starting quarterbacks, and his inaccuracy led to 27 interceptions (more INTs than any QB has had in a season since 2005). He threw the ball better than average on intermediate and -- at times -- deep throws, which still made him worth a decent amount of money, but not anywhere close to his cap hit of $20.8 million.
He has two more years on his contract, where he is owed roughly the same amount in annual value as he was in 2013. He is 33, the age where quarterbacks typically start to decline, so even if he has a slight rebound, he would continue to be the most overpaid player in the NFL.
2. James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis Rams
2013 cap hit: $12.4M
2013 JVM: $1.3M
Value differential: $11.1M
For each of the past five years, Laurinaitis has been the starting middle linebacker for the Rams, and has either hit or been close to 100 tackles each season. A roster bonus led to his salary being so large in 2013, but even without that bump, Laurinaitis was getting paid more money than he was worth.
He had 13 missed tackles, and too often failed to get off the man blocking him in the run game. Not all of his tackles were good plays for the defense, and these negative plays on defense outweighed the positive ones he made. Outside of a few good plays in coverage, there wasn't much that was special about his season, yet he was paid like one of the elite linebackers in the game.
Laurinaitis sees a cap hit in excess of $10 million in 2014, so it would not be at all surprising if he was again the most overpaid linebacker in 2014.
3. David Harris, LB, New York Jets
2013 cap hit: $13.0M
2013 JVM: $2.3M
Value differential: $10.7M
What made Harris a below-average starter in 2013 was his poor play in coverage. When quarterbacks threw his way, they had a passer rating of 119.2. He also had 13 missed tackles, which doesn't help his case.
The odd thing is that even though 2013 was arguably the best campaign of his seven-year career in some regards, he was still below-average for a starting inside linebacker. When Harris signed his new contract, it seemed like too much money, and definitely too much in the guaranteed portion.
His 2014 cap hit with the Jets is more manageable, but this season might be his last with them. He was the ninth-most overvalued player in 2012, but he is unlikely to make it a three-peat on this list next year due to the lower salary.
4. Matt Schaub, QB, Oakland Raiders (formerly Houston Texans)
2013 cap hit: $10.8M
2013 JVM: $800K
Value differential: $10M
For years, Schaub was in the good-but-not-great range of quarterbacks, and as recently as 2012 was playing very close to how much he was getting paid. His play was much worse in 2013.
The primary issue was that he was under pressure more frequently than in the past, and played worse in those situations. He faced pressure from the defense on 41.8 percent of his dropbacks, and had a passer rating of 48.2 when getting those passes off.
Given what Schaub will be making with the Raiders in 2014, he may find himself on the list again next offseason. The Raiders don't have as much talent as the Texans had in terms of both offensive line and receivers, so it's hard to see Schaub having a successful season unless he sees a significant improvement in his performance under pressure. At 33, that is unlikely.
5. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
2013 cap hit: $9.1M
2013 JVM: $800K
Value differential: $8.3M
In 2012, there were seven games where White topped 100 yards receiving. In 2013, his numbers declined to the point where he eclipsed 55 yards in a game just four times, and all four came after Week 13. Although he had two big games against the Bills and 49ers, he ended the season with a four-drop performance against Carolina.
Part of the reason his cap hit was so high in 2013 was because of a roster bonus, so White's 2014 cap hit is lower than it was in 2013. However, he's 32, and chances are he is past his peak performance. From 2010 to 2014, he has been making at least $6 million per year, and for the most part he was worth that figure. Unless he is willing to play for less than that in 2015, his time in Atlanta might be coming to an end.
6. Dashon Goldson, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 cap hit: $8.7M
2013 JVM: $700K
Value differential: $8.1M
For four years, Goldson was a starting safety in San Francisco, with his best year coming in 2012. Goldson was one of several recent free-agent signings by Tampa Bay, but his first year with the Buccaneers was underwhelming. He missed 15 tackles, allowed four touchdowns in coverage (among the 10 worst safeties in the league) and committed six penalties, tied for third-most among safeties.
If the results in 2014 are similar to those of 2013, the Buccaneers will likely let him go in 2015, and not face any cap penalties for doing so. He needs to play much better than he did last year, and possibly even better than he played in 2012, in order to remain in Tampa Bay.
7. Johnathan Joseph, CB, Houston Texans
2013 cap hit: $11.3M
2013 JVM: $3.3M
Value differential: $8M
After successful 2009 and 2010 seasons, Joseph signed a long-term contract with Houston. In 2011, the Texans got their money's worth, after Joseph had five interceptions, 10 passes defended and allowed just 33 yards per game when QBs threw at him. In 2012, things began to go downhill, as his interception and passes-defended numbers went down, and yards per game went up.
Then in 2013, Joseph had a combination of good plays and bad. He allowed only 48.3 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught, but there were four games where he gave up receptions of at least 40 yards, and he allowed five total touchdowns. All in all, it resulted in above-average play for a cornerback, but the problem is he was the third-highest paid cornerback last season, and will be again in 2014.
There are plenty of cornerbacks in the discussion for the league's best; Joseph isn't one of them. The Texans will need to decide if they want to continue to overpay Joseph in 2015.
8. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2013 cap hit: $13.9M
2013 JVM: $6.5M
Value differential: $7.4M
The amount of money running backs make on the open market is decreasing each year, as teams prefer younger (and cheaper) backs. One major exception to the rule is Peterson, who signed a new contract prior to the 2012 season in which his cap hit is anywhere from $12.7 million to $17 million each year. The problem is that in 2014, only four running backs will be making even half Peterson's salary, with the next closest making nearly $5 million less than Peterson.
On top of that financial discrepancy, 2013 was Peterson's worst season in recent memory. In 2012, there were just three games where he averaged 4.4 yards per carry or less; this was true for half of Peterson's games in 2013. He also continued to lack impact in the passing game (171 receiving yards total) and struggled in pass protection, allowing 10 pressures (tied for the eighth-most among running backs).
There is no question Peterson is still among the top running backs in the game, but his current value is way too high for his current production, especially given those declines. He is projected to be the highest-paid back for each of the next four seasons, but the Vikings can also cut him any time after this season and not face much of a cap penalty.
9. Ike Taylor, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 cap hit: $8M
2013 JVM: $900K
Value differential: $7.1M
Taylor joined the Steelers in 2003 as a fourth-round pick, was promoted to the starting lineup in 2005 and has been a starter in Pittsburgh ever since. Year after year, Taylor was consistently an average starting cornerback. He has always been good at defending passes, which he did 12 times last season. The problem is that age eventually gets the best of everyone; that seemed to happen to Taylor in 2013, and it was pretty apparent.
He was the only cornerback in the league to allow more than 1,000 passing yards. When quarterbacks threw to his man in coverage, they had a passer rating of 110.6. That was third-worst for cornerbacks who were targeted at least 70 times. At 34, he is currently the third-oldest cornerback in the league. His salary is slightly lower in 2014 than 2013, but it's clear Taylor is past his prime and will very likely remain overvalued in 2014.
10. Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills
2013 cap hit: $12.4M
2013 JVM: $5.9M
Value differential: $6.5M
Prior to the 2012 season, the Bills signed Williams to just shy of a $100 million contract. While he never quite lived up to being the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, the contract wasn't seen as being that bad at the time, given how dominant Williams looked at times during his tenure in Houston.
He continued to have some of those performances in Buffalo in 2013, including four games where he had seven or more pressures. The problem is that there were a few games where he was invisible, including four games where he had one or fewer pressures. There were seven games in which he failed to sack or hit the quarterback.
A number of players had more pressure than Williams, but few pass-rushers had more pass-rush attempts. While he is still a productive player, he is slated to be the highest-paid edge-rusher in the league next season. For each of the next three years, he has a cap hit of at least $18.8 million. Unless he can become a lot more consistent, he will remain one of the most overpaid players in the NFL.
It has become common practice for fans to rant about how certain players are overpaid, but there's a smarter way of attacking that gripe: the Jahnke Valuation Model (JVM), which measures how much money a player should have made based on the quality of his play.
It takes into account how well the athlete played compared to other players at the same position, and how much money teams devote to that position. It is based completely on their 2013 performance, so it doesn't take into account previous years, and is not meant to gauge how much they should earn in the future. In general, it is just a tool for measuring how much money a team was over- or underpaying for a player for the season.
In this file, I'll use the model to see which players were overpaid the most based on how well they played in 2013.
Obviously anyone who missed most or all of the season due to injury didn't live up to expectations, so this list is limited to players who received at least 500 snaps last season. Plenty of players who were the most overvalued in 2013 -- like Jared Allen, Julius Peppers andChris Johnson -- had much smaller contracts, so they also aren't included.
Unless these players show big improvement this fall, they will be among the most overvalued players of 2014 as well. Here are the top 10 most overpaid players for the 2013 season:
1. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
2013 cap hit: $20.8 million
2013 JVM: $5.4M
Value differential: $15.4M
It seemed as if Manning was improving year after year and had worked his way into the second tier of quarterbacks. He seemed to hit a peak in his Super Bowl season of 2011, and then took a minor step back in 2012. This was followed by 2013, which was a major step in the wrong direction.
Manning's accuracy percentage of 57.5 was second-worst among starting quarterbacks, and his inaccuracy led to 27 interceptions (more INTs than any QB has had in a season since 2005). He threw the ball better than average on intermediate and -- at times -- deep throws, which still made him worth a decent amount of money, but not anywhere close to his cap hit of $20.8 million.
He has two more years on his contract, where he is owed roughly the same amount in annual value as he was in 2013. He is 33, the age where quarterbacks typically start to decline, so even if he has a slight rebound, he would continue to be the most overpaid player in the NFL.
2. James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis Rams
2013 cap hit: $12.4M
2013 JVM: $1.3M
Value differential: $11.1M
For each of the past five years, Laurinaitis has been the starting middle linebacker for the Rams, and has either hit or been close to 100 tackles each season. A roster bonus led to his salary being so large in 2013, but even without that bump, Laurinaitis was getting paid more money than he was worth.
He had 13 missed tackles, and too often failed to get off the man blocking him in the run game. Not all of his tackles were good plays for the defense, and these negative plays on defense outweighed the positive ones he made. Outside of a few good plays in coverage, there wasn't much that was special about his season, yet he was paid like one of the elite linebackers in the game.
Laurinaitis sees a cap hit in excess of $10 million in 2014, so it would not be at all surprising if he was again the most overpaid linebacker in 2014.
3. David Harris, LB, New York Jets
2013 cap hit: $13.0M
2013 JVM: $2.3M
Value differential: $10.7M
What made Harris a below-average starter in 2013 was his poor play in coverage. When quarterbacks threw his way, they had a passer rating of 119.2. He also had 13 missed tackles, which doesn't help his case.
The odd thing is that even though 2013 was arguably the best campaign of his seven-year career in some regards, he was still below-average for a starting inside linebacker. When Harris signed his new contract, it seemed like too much money, and definitely too much in the guaranteed portion.
His 2014 cap hit with the Jets is more manageable, but this season might be his last with them. He was the ninth-most overvalued player in 2012, but he is unlikely to make it a three-peat on this list next year due to the lower salary.
4. Matt Schaub, QB, Oakland Raiders (formerly Houston Texans)
2013 cap hit: $10.8M
2013 JVM: $800K
Value differential: $10M
For years, Schaub was in the good-but-not-great range of quarterbacks, and as recently as 2012 was playing very close to how much he was getting paid. His play was much worse in 2013.
The primary issue was that he was under pressure more frequently than in the past, and played worse in those situations. He faced pressure from the defense on 41.8 percent of his dropbacks, and had a passer rating of 48.2 when getting those passes off.
Given what Schaub will be making with the Raiders in 2014, he may find himself on the list again next offseason. The Raiders don't have as much talent as the Texans had in terms of both offensive line and receivers, so it's hard to see Schaub having a successful season unless he sees a significant improvement in his performance under pressure. At 33, that is unlikely.
5. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
2013 cap hit: $9.1M
2013 JVM: $800K
Value differential: $8.3M
In 2012, there were seven games where White topped 100 yards receiving. In 2013, his numbers declined to the point where he eclipsed 55 yards in a game just four times, and all four came after Week 13. Although he had two big games against the Bills and 49ers, he ended the season with a four-drop performance against Carolina.
Part of the reason his cap hit was so high in 2013 was because of a roster bonus, so White's 2014 cap hit is lower than it was in 2013. However, he's 32, and chances are he is past his peak performance. From 2010 to 2014, he has been making at least $6 million per year, and for the most part he was worth that figure. Unless he is willing to play for less than that in 2015, his time in Atlanta might be coming to an end.
6. Dashon Goldson, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 cap hit: $8.7M
2013 JVM: $700K
Value differential: $8.1M
For four years, Goldson was a starting safety in San Francisco, with his best year coming in 2012. Goldson was one of several recent free-agent signings by Tampa Bay, but his first year with the Buccaneers was underwhelming. He missed 15 tackles, allowed four touchdowns in coverage (among the 10 worst safeties in the league) and committed six penalties, tied for third-most among safeties.
If the results in 2014 are similar to those of 2013, the Buccaneers will likely let him go in 2015, and not face any cap penalties for doing so. He needs to play much better than he did last year, and possibly even better than he played in 2012, in order to remain in Tampa Bay.
7. Johnathan Joseph, CB, Houston Texans
2013 cap hit: $11.3M
2013 JVM: $3.3M
Value differential: $8M
After successful 2009 and 2010 seasons, Joseph signed a long-term contract with Houston. In 2011, the Texans got their money's worth, after Joseph had five interceptions, 10 passes defended and allowed just 33 yards per game when QBs threw at him. In 2012, things began to go downhill, as his interception and passes-defended numbers went down, and yards per game went up.
Then in 2013, Joseph had a combination of good plays and bad. He allowed only 48.3 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught, but there were four games where he gave up receptions of at least 40 yards, and he allowed five total touchdowns. All in all, it resulted in above-average play for a cornerback, but the problem is he was the third-highest paid cornerback last season, and will be again in 2014.
There are plenty of cornerbacks in the discussion for the league's best; Joseph isn't one of them. The Texans will need to decide if they want to continue to overpay Joseph in 2015.
8. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2013 cap hit: $13.9M
2013 JVM: $6.5M
Value differential: $7.4M
The amount of money running backs make on the open market is decreasing each year, as teams prefer younger (and cheaper) backs. One major exception to the rule is Peterson, who signed a new contract prior to the 2012 season in which his cap hit is anywhere from $12.7 million to $17 million each year. The problem is that in 2014, only four running backs will be making even half Peterson's salary, with the next closest making nearly $5 million less than Peterson.
On top of that financial discrepancy, 2013 was Peterson's worst season in recent memory. In 2012, there were just three games where he averaged 4.4 yards per carry or less; this was true for half of Peterson's games in 2013. He also continued to lack impact in the passing game (171 receiving yards total) and struggled in pass protection, allowing 10 pressures (tied for the eighth-most among running backs).
There is no question Peterson is still among the top running backs in the game, but his current value is way too high for his current production, especially given those declines. He is projected to be the highest-paid back for each of the next four seasons, but the Vikings can also cut him any time after this season and not face much of a cap penalty.
9. Ike Taylor, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 cap hit: $8M
2013 JVM: $900K
Value differential: $7.1M
Taylor joined the Steelers in 2003 as a fourth-round pick, was promoted to the starting lineup in 2005 and has been a starter in Pittsburgh ever since. Year after year, Taylor was consistently an average starting cornerback. He has always been good at defending passes, which he did 12 times last season. The problem is that age eventually gets the best of everyone; that seemed to happen to Taylor in 2013, and it was pretty apparent.
He was the only cornerback in the league to allow more than 1,000 passing yards. When quarterbacks threw to his man in coverage, they had a passer rating of 110.6. That was third-worst for cornerbacks who were targeted at least 70 times. At 34, he is currently the third-oldest cornerback in the league. His salary is slightly lower in 2014 than 2013, but it's clear Taylor is past his prime and will very likely remain overvalued in 2014.
10. Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills
2013 cap hit: $12.4M
2013 JVM: $5.9M
Value differential: $6.5M
Prior to the 2012 season, the Bills signed Williams to just shy of a $100 million contract. While he never quite lived up to being the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, the contract wasn't seen as being that bad at the time, given how dominant Williams looked at times during his tenure in Houston.
He continued to have some of those performances in Buffalo in 2013, including four games where he had seven or more pressures. The problem is that there were a few games where he was invisible, including four games where he had one or fewer pressures. There were seven games in which he failed to sack or hit the quarterback.
A number of players had more pressure than Williams, but few pass-rushers had more pass-rush attempts. While he is still a productive player, he is slated to be the highest-paid edge-rusher in the league next season. For each of the next three years, he has a cap hit of at least $18.8 million. Unless he can become a lot more consistent, he will remain one of the most overpaid players in the NFL.
