- Joined
- Aug 18, 2019
- Messages
- 1,048
NFL draft's 'historic' wide receiver class could suppress free-agency market for pass catchers
The NFL draft looks like it will feature a deep and talented class of wide receivers. That could stifle the market for free agents.
www.usatoday.com
In the past five years, an average of 12 wide receivers have been taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft.
This year, that number could double.
“I’ve got 27 wide receivers with top three-round grades in this draft,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said last month. “This is a really phenomenal group of wideouts.”
The rise in NFL-ready wide receivers coincides with the changing face of football at all levels.
The evolution of spread offenses in college have created a deeper pool of wide receivers for NFL teams to choose from. The explosion of seven-on-seven leagues in youth and high school football have fueled the college game. And kids have gravitated towards the position as they’ve tried to emulate Odell Beckham’s one-handed catches and Julio Jones’ grace.
It’s a circle that’s taken years to complete.
“You’ve probably heard every GM and coach talk about this wide receiver class, it’s a good one,” New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas said at the combine last month. “Just watching them go across the stage, there’s a lot of talented players and we see how much the pass game affects the National Football League. So we do feel good about this group. … There are some really good wide receivers in this class.”
Jeremiah ranks four receivers among his top 14 players in the draft and has eight in his top 50 overall.
ESPN analyst Todd McShay said last week there’s a chance seven wide receivers could go in the first round, which would be the most since 2004.
McShay’s colleague, Mel Kiper Jr., said he expects 25 receivers to go in the first 3½ rounds.
“This is going to be maybe historic,” he said.
Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb and the Alabama duo of Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs are potential top-10 picks, and their ascension as players, combined with the exceptional depth of the class, have teams rethinking their free-agent plans.
Last year, teams splurged on complementary pass catchers like Golden Taint, Adam Humphries and John Brown, and traded for the likes of Beckham and Antonio Brown. This year, the wide receiver market seems tepid at best heading into the start of free agency next week.
Amari Cooper will get a massive deal from the Dallas Cowboys or someone else, and NFL teams including the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are poised to lock up rising stars like Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin with big contracts this offseason.
But faced with the choice of giving a second-tier veteran like Robby Anderson or Emmanuel Sanders a deal worth eight figures annually or adding an emerging young talent on a cost-controlled contract, teams are wisely looking to April’s draft.
“That’s the great thing about this draft,” Arizona Cardinals GM Steve Keim said. “Not only is the wide receiver position extremely deep but they’re all different types.”
Whatever a team is looking for at the wide receiver position, it should be able to fill that need through the draft.
Ruggs is a jet-fueled vertical threat who dropped one pass at Alabama last season and excels on special teams. Jeudy is bendy and athletic, one of the best route runners to ever come out of college football. And Lamb is physical and versatile, the type of do-everything player teams covet in today’s game.
Beyond that group, LSU’s Justin Jefferson, Clemson’s Tee Higgins, Penn State’s K.J. Hamler, Baylor’s Denzel Mims, Colorado’s Laviska Shenault, TCU’s Jalen Reagor and Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk are potential top-50 picks at the outside or slot receiver positions.
Contenders looking to bolster their passing game should have no trouble finding a receiver capable of contributing as a rookie, and teams with young quarterbacks can target a pass catcher for them to grow with.
The Lions, with Golladay, Marvin Jones and slot receiver Danny Amendola under contract for one more season, have a more long-term need at the position, and are among the teams expected to pass on high-priced receivers in free agency.
One word of warning, though: As good as this receiver class is, there’s no chance all of them hit.
The last time a draft had six first-round receivers was 2015, when Cooper went fourth overall and has mostly lived up to his billing since.
The other receivers taken in Round 1: Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett.
White is out of the league, Parker signed an extension late last season and Agholor, Perriman and Dorsett are among the free agents who should be bracing for mostly cold shoulders this spring.
