My theory on Snead and his hatred of 1st round picks

[WarnerToBruce]

Snead getting much grief on his latest 1st rounders for Stafford/Goff trade. I was SHOCKED by the news, expecting we'd actually RECEIVE draft picks and instead gave them away. After some time to reflect, I now this differently.

Given the new rules around compensation for departed free agents (and maybe coaches), Snead has rerun the model and is "selling high" as his value of 1st round picks is clearly lower than other GMs. He reasons that you go get your proven guy with those high picks, use draft for your mid/late picks, and if they leave you'll get compensation with more picks anyway. His task is to get the players the coach wants, and he is relentless about it.

My interpretation from his mumbling/bumbling interviews where he always states the personnel stew is draft plus FA, his spicy recipe is slightly different than other GMs.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, you got to give the guy props for commitment/consistency.

I'm now officially excited to see this team next season.

 

[Merlin]

When you look at first round picks they bust almost at 50%. Not sure the exact rate and it'll change depending how many years you go back. But it's only a little better than a hit/miss coin flip I think the last time I looked at it for one of our discussions maybe say 46% or whatever. So you can expect in a big sample size to miss on just about every other pick.

Also Snead and our front office do a good job estimating the draft too I think. Look at Center last year. We were beating the drum for Center (which was indeed a need and still is) but they went and got better players than they would have gotten if they took a Center. So by comparison of where you expect your roster will finish in that next draft order it's possible to compare some of those guys and their upside vs the FA vet you'd give that pick up for.

Combine those two things and it's pretty clear to me at least that bringing in a top vet player who fits for high picks can be a viable roster strategy. It's not my ideal of a roster strategy. But it seems to be working. The drawback is that what limits your ability to do that is the cap, where you'll need to work around that and up until the point where you can't do that this approach is viable.

We may have all this shit catch up to us someday and we'll curse Snead's name and all that. But I won't be jumping in on that because I admit I enjoy this way too much. There's never a dull moment man. With this Rams org you're not stuck with a QB who regressed and now your season hinges on him getting right. No way. They go fix that shit. I love that about this team. Yeah there's misses and some dumb trades like Peters and plenty of dumb contracts given out early. But hopefully the Rams have learned their lesson and are perfecting this approach now.

This draft is gonna need to look like 2020 too btw. In terms of quality. But all concerns aside we continue to be blessed as Rams fans. We got it good man.

 

[Tano]

I think Biadesz or Cushenberry would have been better than Lewis (we would have had to move up for Cush) or Hopkins

I think we would have been superbowl bound with either one of these two picks (if McVay would have played them - yes a big if)

 

[Pancake]

But the cost of bringing in proven players via draft capital catches up. Maybe it is 50% hit rate for 1st rounders but when you do hit you get a player for a few years at bargain prices. Not only that but what is the success rate on bringing in Vets? They don't all work out either. I don't think it's a sustainable strategy.

 

[Psycho_X]

He trusts his talent eval, coaches to develop players, and uses his first rounders to obtain proven talent. It's a good system that has worked well so far. As long as he keeps hitting on talent in the later rounds it's not an issue. He refreshes with comp picks every season too.

 

[dieterbrock]

Conversely, for the next 2 years they have no 1st round picks to use for this “trading for players instead of drafting them” philosophy

 

[Merlin]

But the cost of bringing in proven players via draft capital catches up. Maybe it is 50% hit rate for 1st rounders but when you do hit you get a player for a few years at bargain prices. Not only that but what is the success rate on bringing in Vets? They don't all work out either. I don't think it's a sustainable strategy.

It's sustainable when your cap can handle it. And we have the best in the biz in Demoff who sort of magnifies that approach a bit I think.

Ideal world would be hitting on all those picks yourself. But most teams can't do that. It's an interesting thing the Rams are pulling off and as an example of doing it wrong take a gander at Philly (though they did win a SB after some of their moves)...


View: https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/1355958050067271688

 

[Classic Rams]

I wouldn't say he hates them. He's just not faithful to them.
Sometimes.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Snead getting much grief on his latest 1st rounders for Stafford/Goff trade. I was SHOCKED by the news, expecting we'd actually RECEIVE draft picks and instead gave them away. After some time to reflect, I now this differently.

Given the new rules around compensation for departed free agents (and maybe coaches), Snead has rerun the model and is "selling high" as his value of 1st round picks is clearly lower than other GMs. He reasons that you go get your proven guy with those high picks, use draft for your mid/late picks, and if they leave you'll get compensation with more picks anyway. His task is to get the players the coach wants, and he is relentless about it.

My interpretation from his mumbling/bumbling interviews where he always states the personnel stew is draft plus FA, his spicy recipe is slightly different than other GMs.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, you got to give the guy props for commitment/consistency.

I'm now officially excited to see this team next season.

Teams, especially rebuilding teams covet, even over value first round draft picks. If a team has a first round pick later than top 15 the chances of getting a star is greatly reduced. So the value of mid to late round picks is much lower than the perceived value, especially if you consider bust rate. Two late first round picks are not equal in value to a top tier proven talent. Every year we read reports on how many draftable players a team gave a first round grade. Most years its from 10-20. Then players with 2nd round grades often goes from 10-20 to 40-60. So basically any pick after 20 is likely going to be a player with a second round grade. So a late first is more like a round two talent.

Teams can use a dozen first round picks and never find a Stafford, or a Ramsey. Trading a chance to land top players with picks for actual proven top players is always the smart play. There is no other way the Rams can guarantee getting a Jalen Ramsey. Trade the lottery tickets for the sure thing.

The thing that Snead doesn't speak about is the hype of the draft and the first round picks. He knows what Belichick knew. GMs are overconfident in their ability to land stars in round one despite the odds being against them. Snead is better at using his other remaining picks, than Belichick is.

 

[Bearrister]

He trusts his talent eval, coaches to develop players, and uses his first rounders to obtain proven talent. It's a good system that has worked well so far. As long as he keeps hitting on talent in the later rounds it's not an issue. He refreshes with comp picks every season too.

We’ve hit well with these picks the last several years and expect it to continue. But we’ll see how much of this had to do with Brad Holmes - now that he’s gone it’ll be interesting to see if we continue to pick well with later picks or if we see a drop-off.

Someone made an analogy that our approach is like maxing out a credit card - if our later round picks don’t work out, our line of credit (1st round picks) to make the big trade is maxed out for now. Let’s hope Stafford is the stud we think he is and that we continue to draft well!

 

[Poppinfresh]

My theory is that he's simply a below average general manager who got lucky in attempting to assemble a superteam for a Super Bowl run a couple of years ago by getting veteran talent to sign short term deals for lower money in the hopes of getting a ring. However, once that plan failed and the team broke apart, all that has been left has been a trail of bad trades by which too much was paid or the return was not beneficial, unncessary contracts and extensions, terrible cap management, selling low, and a complete lack of properly valuing internal capital.

 

[Poppinfresh]

Teams, especially rebuilding teams covet, even over value first round draft picks. If a team has a first round pick later than top 15 the chances of getting a star is greatly reduced. So the value of mid to late round picks is much lower than the perceived value, especially if you consider bust rate. Two late first round picks are not equal in value to a top tier proven talent. Every year we read reports on how many draftable players a team gave a first round grade. Most years its from 10-20. Then players with 2nd round grades often goes from 10-20 to 40-60. So basically any pick after 20 is likely going to be a player with a second round grade. So a late first is more like a round two talent.

Teams can use a dozen first round picks and never find a Stafford, or a Ramsey. Trading a chance to land top players with picks for actual proven top players is always the smart play. There is no other way the Rams can guarantee getting a Jalen Ramsey. Trade the lottery tickets for the sure thing.

The thing that Snead doesn't speak about is the hype of the draft and the first round picks. He knows what Belichick knew. GMs are overconfident in their ability to land stars in round one despite the odds being against them. Snead is better at using his other remaining picks, than Belichick is.

Too much emphasis is placed on whether a player is a "star" or not.

If you pick in the back half of the 1st round, just piling up young, positive contributors is sufficient, and if you happen to hit on a star, then fantastic. And - for years now - our biggest holes have been at positions where you can usually find one of the best in the back half of that round (offensive linemen, tight ends, inside linebackers). Sure, you're not likely to find a HOF QB or cornerback back there, but you can absolutely find the best tight end or center in a draft or the 2nd best guard.

 

[Merlin]

My theory is that he's simply a below average general manager who got lucky in attempting to assemble a superteam for a Super Bowl run a couple of years ago by getting veteran talent to sign short term deals for lower money in the hopes of getting a ring. However, once that plan failed and the team broke apart, all that has been left has been a trail of bad trades by which too much was paid or the return was not beneficial, unncessary contracts and extensions, terrible cap management, selling low, and a complete lack of properly valuing internal capital.

You have some interesting thoughts in there. I've been back and forth on Snead but I do think he's got his strengths. He rebuilt the scouting group who is bringing in the players we're watching in the playoffs for example. Those guys were a dumpster fire when he showed up from Atlanta.

And I don't agree with below average. I think he's aggressive and radical maybe but either way he's cutting edge when he has three playoff teams in four years.

But I will also admit I'm not a huge fan of building a team the way he does. And in five years maybe we're talking about his approach as a failed experiment who knows. Not gonna lie that is a fear of mine even as I enjoy the benefits of it.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Too much emphasis is placed on whether a player is a "star" or not.

If you pick in the back half of the 1st round, just piling up young, positive contributors is sufficient, and if you happen to hit on a star, then fantastic. And - for years now - our biggest holes have been at positions where you can usually find one of the best in the back half of that round (offensive linemen, tight ends, inside linebackers). Sure, you're not likely to find a HOF QB or cornerback back there, but you can absolutely find the best tight end or center in a draft or the 2nd best guard.

No. You missed my point. The idea that a first round pick = star is pushed by the media and too many front offices. You can get as good a talent from round two or three in many instances, as you can in the back of round 1.

That all goes back to how most GMs rate prospects by tier. Players with second round grades usually start mid round one and go into the mid to late second round.

I'll also add that McVay brought the draft philosophy to counter Fisher's. Fisher emphasized elite athleticism. McVay emphasises football players that love football. The elite athletes are usually taking up the first round on teams draft boards, where the pure football players who love football often fall into a lower round. Snead has said himself that he often knows players at the top of his draft board will still be available by round 2. Good examples: Rapp, Akers, and Jefferson.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I think Biadesz or Cushenberry would have been better than Lewis (we would have had to move up for Cush) or Hopkins

I think we would have been superbowl bound with either one of these two picks (if McVay would have played them - yes a big if)

Cushenberry was awful last year. He made the All-Rookie team because he was the only one to start more than 4-5 games.

Here's a take from a Broncos writer/fan

Broncos Top-Graded Individual Players of 2020 Revealed

From the good, to the bad, to the ugly, which Broncos earned the most noteworthy grades in 2020?

www.si.com

The Negative
Lloyd Cushenberry | C: 42.2

There were some good moments from Cushenberry to help save his grade from being completely terrible, but his season was mostly bad. His lack of length really showed up multiple games, leading to a lot of issues in pass protection and as a run blocker. He was without question the worst run blocker the Broncos had this season and just couldn’t handle reach blocks very well. If he wants to remain a starter, he will need to put in a lot of work on how to improve and cover for his lack of length.

 

[Memphis Ram]

There's a lot of focus on the 1st round picks and I would love the Rams to have them and obtain quality players on a 5 year deal. But, oftentimes the known is far better than the unknown when it comes to this crapshoot called the NFL draft. Especially, when it comes to selections at the bottom of the round.

 

[CoachAllred]

In McSnead I trust.
And that's all I got to say about that.