MMQB: Minnesota Vikings Preview

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Our first opponent of the season.
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Vikings Preview: The AP Conundrum
Adrian Peterson is one of the greatest runners of all time, but the Vikings have gotten nowhere while relying on him. With a new coach and a new home, can they finally find the supporting cast they need to break through?
By Andy Benoit

adrian-peterson-800.jpg

Even with Peterson’s historically great play, the Vikings have gone nowhere in recent years. (Greg Nelson /Sports Illustrated)

OFFENSE
You might have heard the question floated: Should the Vikings trade Adrian Peterson? The answer, in theory, is yes. Peterson is far and away the best running back in football… and look what it has gotten the Vikings. In 2012 he had maybe the most impressive season by any running back in history—2,097 yards, 1,598 of them after Week 6—and his Vikings merely went a soft 10-6 and were one-and-done in the playoffs. That was the Vikings’ most successful season with Peterson carrying the bulk of the load. Their only substantial playoff run, in 2009, came with Brett Favre, not Peterson, as the headliner.

When your top skill player is an all time great and clearly the current best at his position, yet you still don’t win, then your formula needs to change.

For the longest time, teams that finished near the top of the NFL in passing offense would be on the fringe of the playoffs while teams ranked high in rushing almost always made the postseason. That’s flipped now. So has the way teams must treat personnel. A back like Peterson was meant to play in the 90s.

With amorphous defensive fronts, better defensive athletes and the proliferation of edge-setting 3-4 outside linebackers and 5-2 defensive ends, it’s hard to run the ball these days. This gets to the heart of the running back problem. The nature of the sport makes it almost impossible for a defense to nullify a great quarterback. But with a strong commitment to eight-and nine-man boxes, a defense, if it really wants to, can almost always nullify a great running back.

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It’s unclear whether Matt Cassel should be managing the offense again, rather than rookie Teddy Bridgewater. (Carlos M. Saavedra /Sports Illustrated)

Most teams have capable quarterbacks who can discourage defenses from consistently cramming the box. The Vikings have not. And, unlike elite run-first teams like the 49ers and Seahawks, they haven’t had a stingy defense to support their superstar back, either.

In short, a great running back in and of himself cannot control a game. And right now, the Vikings have a great running back who, given their roster, is counted on to control the game.

The only thing that should give GM Rick Spielman pause over trading Peterson—and it’s not a small thing—is the age factor. At 29, Peterson’s actual value far outweighs his market value; a fair trade is not obtainable. Hence the Vikings should trade Peterson only in theory. In reality, they’re “stuck” with the future Hall of Famer, which obviously isn’t the worst thing.

The counter to the “trade Peterson” argument is that, in simple terms, the Vikings have not been mediocre because Peterson is their best player. They’ve been mediocre because their quarterbacks have been mediocre. In the early years it was Tarvaris Jackson. More recently, it’s been Christian Ponder, their 2011 first-rounder who has not panned out. Matt Cassel captured Ponder’s job last season and looked okay, but only okay. This year, the Vikings gambled a first-round pick on Teddy Bridgewater, which feels an awful lot like the Ponder case: taking a quarterback in the first round only because of a need at the position.

Bridgewater, by some accounts, has the type of meek personality that doesn’t win over NFL locker rooms and huddles. Skill-wise, he has some developing to do, which is why first-time head coach Mike Zimmer will likely tap Cassel in Week 1.

Zimmer’s top coordinator, venerated offensive architect Norv Turner, has expressed optimism about Cassel, even saying that he wanted him in Cleveland last year. Cassel has the pocket-passing wherewithal to succeed in Turner’s system because he’s willing to take shots at the deep-intermediate levels. What Cassel doesn’t have, though, is a particularly strong arm, or an innate ability to make throws with bodies around him.

Cassel will need outstanding pass protection, which he probably won’t get. Left tackle Matt Kalil is coming off a disappointing sophomore season and does not consistently play up to his raw talent. Left guard Charlie Johnson’s limited athleticism shows in his pass-blocking. Same with right guard Brandon Fusco, though the fourth-year pro did make some much-needed improvements last season. Right tackle Phil Loadholt no longer plays below his 6’8”, 345-pound size, but he’s not exactly an All-Pro, either. Speed rushers give him trouble. A small saving grace for this line is that it has a stable fulcrum in center John Sullivan. And when you factor in fullback Jerome Felton, it can be a decent run-blocking unit.

Peterson used to prefer running out of a single-man backfield, but the previous coaching staff forced him to develop the patience to work behind a lead blocker. He’s built a prosperous rapport with Felton, something Turner, who isn’t a huge fan of multi-receiver spread sets anyway, won’t get away from.

That said, any drastic improvements for this offense will come through the air. The plan is for Peterson to have some of his carries converted to less-punishing touches on catches out of the backfield. But plans always sound great in summer; we’ll see how long this one holds up when chips are down in fall. Almost certainly, Peterson will remain a between-the-tackles battering ram, while either Matt Asiata or third-round rookie Jerick McKinnon will contribute in the passing game (if either back contributes significantly at all).

Meaningful improvements through the air will come via the wide receivers. Greg Jennings is paid like the No. 1, but Cordarrelle Patterson will be the guy defenses fear most. The explosive 2013 first-round playmaker is still raw, and part of him might remain that way forever—like a super version of Az-Zahir Hakim. But any time Patterson touches the ball, he’s a legitimate threat to score. Expect Turner, like previous play-caller Bill Musgrave, to feature Patterson on quick screens and even some backfield touches in order to get the ball in his hands early on plays. But also expect Turner to focus more on expanding the downfield route running ability that Patterson started to show last December.

Rounding out the receiving corps, Jerome Simpson could capture a starting job if Patterson isn’t quite ready. Simpson is a 28-year-old veteran but doesn’t bring much wisdom to the table. He’ll botch a few routes, but he’ll also burn a few defenders. Third-year pro Jarius Wright can burn, too, though he’s an unfinished product.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph, who will inevitably become Cassel’s (or Bridgewater’s) safety blanket, is fully recovered from the foot fracture that truncated his 2013 season. Rudolph isn’t a mismatch-creating athlete like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, but he moves well enough for his size and can high-point balls in the red zone. Backing him up will either be the blocking-oriented Rhett Ellison (an H-back type) or undrafted third-year pro Chase Ford, who shows upside as a run-after-catch weapon.

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Chad Greenway (52) and the Vikings D is well-equipped to handle Mike Zimmer’s scheme. (Julio Cortez/AP)

DEFENSE
Zimmer’s hiring means a departure from the vanilla zone-based scheme that Leslie Frazier ran before him. The nice thing about Zimmer’s scheme is that, aside from athletic defensive linemen, it does not demand many specific types of personnel. And, the defensive line demand is one the Vikings fulfill.

Utility defensive lineman Everson Griffen was re-signed for $19.8 million guaranteed—a shocking sum for a player with just 17.5 sacks over his first four seasons. But Griffen is better than his numbers (which, by the way, should inflate soon). His versatility is off the charts, and he amplifies it by playing with tremendous all-around velocity. Zimmer will use him as a moveable chess piece even more so than he did with Michael Johnson in Cincinnati.

Joining Griffen, 31-year-old Brian Robison was re-signed last year over the more prolific 32-year-old Jared Allen. Robison is a sturdy run-pass player who should be able to keep his job ahead of free agent pickup Corey Wootton. He’ll likely one day be pushed by third-round pick Scott Crichton, but that day won’t come in 2014.
Inside, 2013 first-round defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd was very up-and-down as a rookie. Floyd has good movement in gaps but must improve his core strength if he’s to be an every-down force. Accompanying him is Linval Joseph, signed to play ahead of Fred Evans, who has a very good first step but can’t always be counted on to show it.

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Quarterbacks will see a lot more of Everson Griffen this fall. (Tom Dahlin/Getty Images)

Zimmer’s scheme will aim to put these D-linemen in favorable one-on-one matchups. A way he does that is by sugaring the A gaps with his nickel linebackers. Chad Greenway, a sound-moving cover linebacker who also stops the run, should be excellent in this role. But who joins him?

The hope is it can be first-round rookie Anthony Barr. In addition to sheer athletic explosiveness, Barr would give Zimmer another movable chess piece. However, he’s expected to be a project. If he’s unable to play heavy snaps right away, the Vikings will have to roll some very unfavorable dice with Jasper Brinkley or Audie Cole.

In the secondary, Zimmer has a cornerbacking group that can range from average to good depending on how last year’s first-round pick, Xavier Rhodes, performs in a fulltime starting role. Rhodes has excellent strength in his press-jams, but he needs to have a boundary to play to (sort of like Nnamdi Asomugha). That’s fine. The Vikings won’t ask Rhodes to fill the slot. Those duties will be handled by free agent acquisition Captain Munnerlyn, who, along with being a serviceable cover guy is also a keen blitzer. Zimmer will make regular use of that. Munnerlyn’s arrival allows potential playmaker Josh Robinson to play outside in nickel.

At safety, Harrison Smith can be the new Reggie Nelson, only with better range. The problem is Zimmer may not be able to play his best defensive back in the box because that would leave his weakest starter in centerfield. Vying to be that starter: Jamarca Sanford, who is not bad in traffic but can be susceptible to pump fakes in deep coverage; Andrew Sendejo, a high-energy fighter with a ceiling; Robert Blanton, a shaky slot defender in last year’s dime package; Mistral Raymond, an unremarkable 2011 sixth-round pick, or Kurt Coleman, who couldn’t even get to the top of a bad safety rotation in Philadelphia.

This defense was vulnerable to big plays last season, and that might be the case again. Zimmer will likely have to take some chances in order to have the kind of defense that maximizes the benefit of having a world-class running back.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Blair Walsh was 2 of 5 from 50-yard range last season after being true on all 10 of his long attempts as a rookie in 2012. Punter Jeff Locke ranked in the middle of the pack of most statistical categories, which is where his predecessor Chris Kluwe usually ranked. In the return game, opponents should never allow Cordarrelle Patterson to touch the ball on kickoffs. He led the league in return average last year (32.4). On punt returns, backup cornerback Marcus Sherels ranked second in the league (15.2).

BOTTOM LINE
New coach, new venue (frigid TCF Bank Stadium) but same old Vikings. They have a decent roster that, unfortunately, is highly questionable at the most important position.
 

PowayRamFan

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Good to read this, if we can stop Peterson we should win this game handily. Easier said than done, but I think GW will have our guys ready. Other than that, I love how we match up against them.
 

HE WITH HORNS

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Adrian Peterson just isn't a winning running back. Look at his total win loss record since he's been there.
 

LazyWinker

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The Vikings are a team I'm glad the Rams play week 1 and not week 17. I wonder if there is a reason they are so down on Bridgewater.
 

HE WITH HORNS

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The Vikings are a team I'm glad the Rams play week 1 and not week 17. I wonder if there is a reason they are so down on Bridgewater.

I don't think it's a good idea to start a rookie QB on the road against our defensive line. That could be real bad for his confidence if he's sacked 4 or 5 times.
 

LazyWinker

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I don't think it's a good idea to start a rookie QB on the road against our defensive line. That could be real bad for his confidence if he's sacked 4 or 5 times.
Hopefully the Rams can go up by 2 td's early so the vikings abandon the run.
 

Angry Ram

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They could've had Robert Quinn. Him and Jared Allen, oh man.

Last time Adrian Peterson had damn near 200 yards rushing, and it was still a close game. Have to beat them week 1.
 

F. Mulder

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One thing about guys like Peterson and smart staffs is that they will continue to feed him the ball regardless of his earlier outcomes. He's the type of back who can have 15 carries for 50 yards but they'll keep pumping him. They will also use their QB to avoid turnovers and throw a bunch of short stuff and stay out of third and longs. Two keys: 1) get up by more than 1-2 scores and remove Peterson 2) force QB into 3rd and longs. I do not fear their defense.
 

Greg Stone

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"Should the Vikings trade Adrian Peterson? The answer, in theory, is yes. Peterson is far and away the best running back in football… "

And what theory is that, pray tell? He opens with these three sentences and never explains why his opening isn't as absurdly stupid as it seems . . .
 

bomebadeeda

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"Should the Vikings trade Adrian Peterson? The answer, in theory, is yes. Peterson is far and away the best running back in football… "

And what theory is that, pray tell? He opens with these three sentences and never explains why his opening isn't as absurdly stupid as it seems . . .
"At 29, Peterson’s actual value far outweighs his market value; a fair trade is not obtainable. Hence the Vikings should trade Peterson only in theory."
 

Greg Stone

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"At 29, Peterson’s actual value far outweighs his market value; a fair trade is not obtainable. Hence the Vikings should trade Peterson only in theory."

I understand the many reasons why you DON'T trade Peterson, I mean it's bloody obvious. Where then is the theory for why you SHOULD trade Peterson? That's what I'm asking.
 
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Greg Stone

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I'll help the writer out: IF you accept the idea that the Vikings are so bad that it will be a number of years before they can again contend, then trading Peterson for younger player(s) might have some merit. He doesn't say that though. In fact he points out that they made the playoffs just two seasons ago.
 

kurtfaulk

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They wasted adp's career. They just needed to give him a competent qb and the sky was the limit for that team. One year of favre was all he got. Such a waste.

.
 

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Steven Jackson has just as much right to complain as AP. Here's an RB that had he had an excellent O-line in front of him all those years he played for the Rams, he'd most likely be headed for the Hall of Fame.
 

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Vikings Report: Is Teddy Ready?
Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s camp progress will help shape the kind of offense new coach Mike Zimmer runs. But the D also needs a lift

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Zimmer has his task cut out in fixing a defense that yielded the most points inthe league last year. (Jerry Holt/Zuma Press/Icon SMI)

BY DAN GREENE
@TheDanGreene


MANKATO, MINN. — I’m in the home not only of MMQB tour staple Jake’s Stadium Pizza but also of Vikings training camp, which is hosted by Minnesota State University. Today’s practice was an odd one, as a thunderstorm suspended things after roughly an hour and ultimately moved the second hour into the nearby fieldhouse.

Beneath a truss-crossed ceiling and surrounded by banners touting MSU’s track-and-field All-Americans, the Vikings finished out the day in a walkthrough at one-third speed, limiting the amount of insight anyone could glean from the proceedings. But the session was not without its charms, such as the backwards-upside-down visor atop Cordarrelle Patterson’s half-bleached dreads, or the way the scrimmage beanies looked like showercaps atop helmetless heads.

ONE VIVID MEMORY FROM WATCHING PRACTICE
Teddy Bridgewater repeatedly rolling to his left and crisply hitting his receivers in stride, then later dropping straight back to connect with Jarius Wright and Rodney Smith on perfectly timed throws released before the receivers made their breaks. Sure, none of this came with any defensive pressure or even any defenders at all, and Bridgewater wasn’t perfect on the day. But his talent is clear, and when you combine that with the way coaches and players have raved about his immersive work ethic, it’s hard not to feel good about his prospects.

HOW THIS TEAM CAN GO 12–4
Is there anything more alluring than a first-round rookie quarterback? Through them, all things seem possible. So let’s begin with that most enticing of 12-4 scenarios: Bridgewater wins the job and kicks down the doors on his way into the league. Even simply being pretty good would do wonders for a Minnesota offense that has a solid line and talented playmakers (the explosive Patterson, the dependable Greg Jennings, red-zone artist Kyle Rudolph at tight end, and that tailback guy) but spent last year running its quarterback job through a rather uninspiring revolving door. Matt Cassel suddenly turning the clock back to 2008 or ’10 could make for a significant turnaround too.

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Griffen (97) needs to be take the lead on the pass-rush front. (Ann Heisenfelt/AP)

Yet more work would be required on the other side of the ball, where the Vikings allowed the most points in the league last season. A true breakout from Everson Griffen at right end, where he takes over for departed stalwart Jared Allen, would be a good place to start, as would the speedy recovery of nose tackle Linval Joseph, a signee from the Giants who suffered a “minor injury” to his calf after he was hit by a stray bullet in a nightclub shooting this past weekend.

But the most important piece may be new head coach and secondary whiz Mike Zimmer. If this team is going to suddenly vault into the playoffs, he will need to quickly catalyze the development of young corners Xavier Rhodes and Josh Robinson and sort out the strong safety position.

HOW THIS TEAM CAN GO 4–12
If the defense is more project than quick-fix or if the quarterback is a recent-vintage Cassel or a not-quite-ready Bridgewater, the Vikings will struggle again. Zimmer doesn’t want to throw the rookie to the wolves if the defense is porous and digging holes for the offense, which could mean that defensive struggles end up sinking both units. An opening month featuring the Patriots, Falcons, Saints and Packers is also a recipe for the kind of slow start that can send a season south quickly.

NOW, FROM FANTASYLAND …
1. Adrian Peterson needs no boost in value, but new offensive coordinator Norv Turner appears to be serious about increasing Peterson’s role in the passing game. Peterson hasn’t had more than 217 receiving yards since 2010 and has never had more than 43 receptions, which is why it was interesting to see him being split out wide during the indoor portion of Sunday’s practice. He won’t suddenly become Darren Sproles, but that change in usage could be a nice treat in PPR leagues.

2. Speaking of Turner’s impact, be bullish on Kyle Rudolph. Now, Turner’s history emphasizing tight ends as pass-catchers—from Jay Novacek to Antonio Gates to Jordan Cameron—is well-documented enough that it’s been built into Rudolph’s average draft price. But don’t balk at taking him as a starter when you see he had just 249 yards and three touchdowns in 15 games last season. Those numbers are headed for a sharp increase. Don’t believe the hype? The Vikings just made Rudolph the sixth-highest paid tight end in the league. He’s clearly key to their plans.

3. Cordarrelle Patterson is downright dangerous with the ball in his hands and had a strong finish to his rookie season, which could portend a sophomore leap. But don’t forget to factor Minnesota’s quarterbacking uncertainties into Patterson’s price. He could be boom-or-bust on a weekly basis.

As alluded to earlier, the quarterback battle is also related to what shape the rest of the team takes. Bridgewater has earned praise for his preparation and willingness to learn, but he wasn’t quite himself in his preseason debut. The competition appears fluid for now, with no sense of urgency to rush Bridgewater … Jennings will play the slot when the Vikings go three-wide …

Similarly, Munnerlyn is the team’s second corner but will cover the slot in nickel packages, which Zimmer’s Cincinnati defenses used on well over half their snaps in recent seasons … Brinkley, who spent his first four years with Minnesota before going to Arizona last season, is locked in a battle with Cole, who took over for Erin Henderson late last season. Brinkley was working with the first team … Blanton’s strained hamstring has complicated the strong safety competition. Zimmer likes Crocker, a former Bengal signed last week, while Coleman had a strong preseason debut, including an interception. The position is wide open.

BEST NEW PLAYER IN CAMP
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Newcomer Munnerlyn (left) has looked sharp, but he will be happy he doesn’t have to lock up with Patterson when the real games start. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)

Munnerlyn, a slot extraordinaire and free agent signee from the Panthers who will be an important veteran presence between two young corners. With Robinson and Marcus Sherels covering the slot last season, the position was a significant weak spot; according to Pro Football Focus the pair ranked 45th and 46th, respectively among 46 qualified slot corners in yards per coverage snap. That won’t be a problem this year.

STRONG OPINION THAT I MAY REGRET BY NOVEMBER
With his first starting gig, Griffen will more than double last year’s sack total of 5½.

SOMETHING I’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE
A U.S. senator taking in a special teams walkthrough from the sideline. There was Minnesota’s own Al Franken in Mankato on Sunday, not only for the weather-shortened afternoon practice but also for the morning kick and coverage work. A purple Vikings ballcap pulled over his head and plain navy polo tucked into his jeans, the SNL alumnus and annual training camp spectator posed for requested photos with constituents and chit-chatted about politics and Air America in the afternoon, but otherwise seemed most interested in watching his beloved team go through drills.

Also a new sight for me: an NFL mascot aimlessly twirling in circles on a Segway.

WHAT I THOUGHT WHEN I WALKED OUT OF CAMP
While it’s hard to read too much into such an unusual practice as the one I saw, the Vikings appear to be set up in the right direction on both sides of the ball thanks to the arrivals of Bridgewater (and Turner) and Zimmer. This should be a year of progress toward bigger-picture goals, even if growing pains seem inevitable and upward mobility in the NFC North appears limited at the moment. Brighter days should be coming, even if some more storms are ahead.
 

Psycho_X

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Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson should form some kind of support group for each other and drink their career sorrows away.
 

LACHAMP46

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They wasted adp's career. They just needed to give him a competent qb and the sky was the limit for that team. One year of favre was all he got. Such a waste.

.
Barry Sanders-Dan Marino-Jim Kelly-Eric Dickerson-LaDamien Tomlinson say collectively, "Oh Really?!?!"
 

RAM's-NWST

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I do like the 5-2 front on defense the Vikings use and the Rams also have the personnel to pull it off.