Microsoft Engine Cortana Predicts Week 1

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The Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every NFL Game — Here Are Its Picks For Week 1

Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season.


The predictions come from a model by Bing Predicts that takes into account 2013 results, offensive and defensive stats, margin of victory, location, weather, and public sentiment (which is meant to help identify real-time factors, like injuries).

Since the model just picks a winner and doesn't predict a score against the spread, the hit rate should be well over 50%.

Cortana did well at the World Cup, and even picked Germany over Brazil in the semifinal when other statistical models had Brazil as the heavy favorite. So if you're the gambling sort, it might be wise to take these picks into account.

Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1:
    • Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks win (74.2% chance)
    • New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
    • Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams — Rams win (67.4% chance)
    • Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance)
    • Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win (75.4% chance)
    • Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — Jets win (62.9% chance)
    • Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win (59.8% chance)
    • Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Bears win (64.4% chance)
    • Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)
    • Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Chiefs win (64.4% chance)
    • New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins — Patriots win (61.4% chance)
    • Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)
    • San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys — 49ers win (68.8% chance)
    • Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos — Broncos win (77.8% chance)
    • New York Giants at Detroit Lions — Lions win (61.4%% chance)
    • San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals win (58.2% chance)
Interestingly, Cortana picked the Vegas betting favorite in 15 of 16 Week 1 games. The only disparity is in the Saints-Falcons game. Vegas has New Orleans as a three-point favorite, while Cortana has Atlanta as a pretty big 61% favorite.​
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So basically everyone in our division is supposed to win. That 74.2% chance to win for the Seahawks on point. Wasn't even close. So according to this it looks like we have a great chance to win Sunday!
 

rdw

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RhodyRams

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well if Cortana goes 15/16 or even 14/16 I might think about switching to an HTC phone and calling my bookie
 
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Sorted by likelihood of victory:

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos — Broncos win (77.8% chance)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win (75.4% chance)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys — 49ers win (68.8% chance)
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams — Rams win (67.4% chance)
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Bears win (64.4% chance) / Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Chiefs win (64.4% chance)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — Jets win (62.9% chance)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions — Lions win (61.4%% chance) / New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins — Patriots win (61.4% chance) / New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win (59.8% chance)
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals win (58.2% chance)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)
Computer loves us.
 

CodeMonkey

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Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)

That one is basically a coin flip.
 

Athos

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Stupid computer definitely picked wrong for the Saints and Falcons game.

Saints gonna tear the birds a new one with no Sean Weatherspoon.
 

Stranger

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74.2% chance that the Seahawks will beat the Pack... what does 74.2% chance actually even mean? Does this mean every 1.34 games the Pack will beat the Seahawks? How does anyone supposed to interpret these figures?
 
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74.2% chance that the Seahawks will beat the Pack... what does 74.2% chance actually even mean? Does this mean every 1.34 games the Pack will beat the Seahawks? How does anyone supposed to interpret these figures?

If you play 4 times the Packers should win approximately once.
 

LesBaker

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74.2% chance that the Seahawks will beat the Pack... what does 74.2% chance actually even mean? Does this mean every 1.34 games the Pack will beat the Seahawks? How does anyone supposed to interpret these figures?

I believe it's just the odds of that team winning, or a way of saying that team would win about that many times out of a hundred. Of course it doesn't do a lot of good since it doesn't take into account point spreads so this isn't going to help gamblers. But in a survivor pool like we have here it could be helpful.
 
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I believe it's just the odds of that team winning, or a way of saying that team would win about that many times out of a hundred. Of course it doesn't do a lot of good since it doesn't take into account point spreads so this isn't going to help gamblers. But in a survivor pool like we have here it could be helpful.

You can usually bet on the winner straight up though. So Rams winning has odds of 1.59, if these numbers are right you'd expect to win $0.59 67.4% of the time and lose $1 32.6% so you'd expect to win $0.07 on a $1 bet. On the other hand you bet $1 on the Vikings you'd expect to win $1.50 on 32.6% of the time and lose $1 67.4% of the time, so you'd expect to lose $0.18 on a $1 bet.

I think those numbers are right.
 

rking4441

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Has this been posted on the Vikings site and are they crying about it yet. Hope this prediction comes to fruition.
 

Dodgersrf

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Wasn't there an octopus that was pretty good at picking winners?