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I don't trust boards that move this much. That's a LOT of movement from a combine.
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The NFL combine has come and gone, and while workout numbers will affect the stock of some players, the time outside of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis was even more valuable in terms of shaping our Scouts Inc. draft board.
We spent nearly every spare minute immersed in film of prospects from the defensive front seven, in an effort to finish our final evaluations on those players. The result is big names moving up and down -- in some cases off the board entirely.
The biggest news is Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore falling out of our updated ranking for the top 32 overall prospects. Yes, Moore hurt himself by putting up only 12 bench-press reps at the combine and looking somewhat pedestrian in other areas, but unimpressive tape is what drags him down the most.
Moore's lack of upper-body explosiveness was evident before he ever got on the bench in Indy, and his film shows a player who rarely uses his hands against blockers. He's a good athlete who can be disruptive, but he has some maturing to do as a player and in terms of work ethic.
Front-seven players have been the talk of the draft process, and our recent film work reinforces that. Prospects like Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo and Ezekiel Ansah had good showings at the combine, but they are moving up because of what we see upon further examination of their game tape.
Here's how things stand at this point, with pro day workouts and individual sessions with teams still to come. Non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
1. Luke Joeckel*OT6-5¾306
Analysis: Joeckel's balance, footwork and ability to recover in pass protection are outstanding. He takes good angles in the run game and gets to the second level well. Joeckel showed well against the likes of Alabama and LSU during the season, and he continues to solidify an elite grade. Previously: 2
2. Sharrif Floyd* DT6-3298
Analysis: Floyd thrived when moved from end to tackle in 2012. He is effective in tight quarters, moves well for his size and improved his ability to use upper-body power to shock blockers. He is able to locate the ball, shed blocks and flow to the ball as quickly as any defensive tackle in this year's class. Previously: 7
3. Dee Milliner* CB6-0¾197
Analysis: Milliner posted a 4.37 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, adding great top-end speed to the instincts, recognition skills and discipline that stand out on film. He is also reliable in run support. Milliner is not elite in man coverage but is excellent in zone, and with his good short-area quickness topping things off, he's clearly the top corner on the board. Previously: 3
4. Eric FisherOT6-7⅛297
Analysis: Fisher stood out at the Senior Bowl with his impressive length, nimble feet and balance in pass protection. He shows good footwork and the ability to hit moving targets when pulling and appears to have the power to create movement at the point of attack. He could anchor more effectively at times, but he has the skill set to thrive at left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 5
5. Chance WarmackOG6-2⅜325
Analysis: Warmack is a big, strong, nasty lineman with good smarts and athleticism. He shows awareness, is an easy mover in pass protection and has power as a run-blocker. The best guard I've evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick. Previously: 4
6. Star LotuleleiDT6-3320
Analysis: Lotulelei was flagged with a heart condition by doctors at the NFL combine, but his current ranking continues to reflect only what we think of him as a player. His condition is being evaluated and it hasn't been decided whether he will work out at Utah's pro day or at a later date, but we won't drop him significantly in the rankings until we have definitive answers about his long-term prognosis. As for Lotulelei on the field, he could use some polish as a pass-rusher but has a good overall skill set with strong hands, nimble feet, good range and the ability to quickly discard blockers. Previously: 1
7. Dion Jordan DE6-6⅛239
Analysis: Jordan posted a 4.60 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, which helps his stock a bit, but it's his athleticism and versatility on tape that are his biggest assets. He has fluid feet and hips and good upper-body power and lower-body explosiveness, and he can play multiple roles along the front seven. It's easy to envision him coming off the board in the top 10 overall. Previously: 11
8. Ezekiel Ansah DE6-6273
Analysis: Ansah is raw and lacks ideal experience, but his elite combination of size, speed, length and overall athleticism makes him a disruptive presence. He wowed scouts at the combine, and the comparisons to Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul are warranted. Ansah belongs in the top 12 picks, and I'll be surprised if he makes it out of the top 20. Previously: 21
9. Barkevious Mingo* DE6-5240
Analysis: His production was not elite in 2012, but the more tape we watch on Mingo, the more his upside and ability to disrupt show through. He has good length, an elite first step, great range and a very good closing burst. Previously: 8
10. Lane Johnson OT6-6305
Analysis: Johnson has nailed the pre-draft process, showing up big during Senior Bowl week and impressing teams with his skills and character during the combine. He could add some strength and improve his hand use, but Johnson's offensive line experience is limited and those things will come in time. He has the athleticism and movement skills to be a good starting left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 17
11. Jonathan Cooper OG6-3320
Analysis: Cooper is the best blocker in space in this class and would be a perfect fit in a zone-blocking scheme. He has quickness, mobility, explosive power, good feet and balance that all jump out on film. He shows awareness in pass protection and plays with an edge. Cooper is making a solid case as an early first-round pick. Previously: 16
12. Kenny Vaccaro S6-0½ 210
Analysis: I like Vaccaro's all-around game, and his combine workout matched up with the explosive movement skills we see when studying his film. He has good size and the ability to come down and cover slot receivers, though there are slight concerns about his top-end speed. A good 40-yard dash at his pro day would put those to rest and cement him as a high-first-round pick. Previously: 6
13. Alec Ogletree* ILB6-3237
Analysis: Ogletree didn't blow anyone away at the combine and comes with some character baggage, but his tape shows him making plays from sideline to sideline and flashing potential as a pass-rusher. He needs to become a little stronger at the point of attack, but Ogletree is the best inside linebacker in the class. Previously: 12
14. Bjoern Werner* DE6-4255
Analysis: Werner started fast in 2012, showing improved pass-rush skills to go with his ability to set the edge as a run defender. His production slowed later in the season, but Werner's quickness and strong hands are impressive and he can convert speed to power when rushing the passer. Previously: 9
15. D.J. Fluker* OT6-4⅞355
Analysis: Fluker is a massive, mauling right tackle prospect who plays with an edge and can engulf smaller defenders. His weight and conditioning will have to be monitored, but Fluker shows a good motor. He lacks ideal quickness in pass protection, but when he's able to lock on to pass-rushers, he is hard to get around. Previously: NR
16. Sheldon Richardson DT6-2⅞290
Analysis: Richardson was the best player on a bad Missouri defense, and he played hard despite additional attention from offense and his team's overall struggles. He can penetrate with a quick first step and has excellent straight-line speed, good range and power as a bull rusher. Previously: 10
17. Tavon Austin WR5-8⅜173
Analysis: Austin is one of the few players who got a real boost from the combine. His 4.34-second 40-yard dash confirms the explosive long speed we see on film, and it makes you feel a little better about his pint-sized frame. Austin is versatile enough to play in the slot or the backfield, as well as return kicks, and his elite quickness and agility make him a dynamic playmaker in space. Previously: 31
18. Sylvester Williams DT6-2320
Analysis: Williams' standout showing at the Senior Bowl backed up a strong regular season, when he played faster than ever after shedding weight and getting fully healthy. He has the power to press blockers into the backfield, pop at the point of attack as a tackler and instincts and quick hands to get off blocks. Previously: 15
19. Geno Smith QB6-2¾208
Analysis: Smith was trending down after an inconsistent finish to the 2012 season, but he was the most athletic quarterback at the combine and is locking down the top spot at the position. His arm strength is not elite, but he can push the ball vertically at times. His confidence, footwork and mechanics all stand out when he's playing at a high level. Previously: 23
20. Jarvis Jones*OLB6-2242
Analysis: Like with Lotulelei, this ranking is only about Jones as a player. It has nothing to do with the spinal stenosis issue teams are investigating or the fact that he didn't work out at the combine. Jones has terrific instincts and straight-line burst and uses his hands well, but he's not an overall athlete and his size will present some scheme-fit concerns. Previously: 14
21. Keenan Allen* WR6-3206
Analysis: Allen is dealing with a knee injury that prevented him from working out at the combine, making his pro day an important part of his evaluation. On the field, Allen was productive thanks to his combination of size, speed, body control and hands. He doesn't have elite speed to take the top off NFL coverage, but his size and strength allow him to win one-on-one battles downfield. Previously: 28
22. Tyler Eifert TE6-6250
Analysis: Eifert looked good at the combine and backed up what we've seen on film. He has the body control and ball skills to make tough catches, the speed to work the seam and the competitiveness to make plays going over the middle of the field. Previously: 32
23. Johnathan Jenkins DT6-4⅛363
Analysis: As we've dug deeper into Jenkins' film, we see a little more quickness and range than we first thought, and Jenkins has a motor that never stops. He has the size and strength to control blockers on the inside, and while he does get fatigued at times and will play a little high as a result, the effort is always there. Previously: 24
24. Eddie Lacy* RB5-10220
Analysis: He didn't work out at the combine, but Lacy built some momentum with a standout performance in the BCS title game. He is a decisive runner with good size and speed, adequate agility and an effective spin move. Lacy shows good instincts and patience and fights hard to finish runs. Previously: 30
25. Manti Te'oILB6-1248
Analysis: Another player who is trending down based solely on film and not on any other factor. Te'o was sliding down the board before his poor showing at the combine, thanks to questions about his movement skills and ability to take on and shed blockers. Previously: 18
26. Kawann Short DT6-3⅛325
Analysis: Short showed more consistency, better effort and impressive production in 2012. He displayed explosiveness and the ability to penetrate and disrupt along the interior, giving himself a chance to be in the first-round mix. Previously: 19
27. Justin Hunter* WR6-4 205
Analysis: Hunter absolutely nailed the combine and got a boost from his performance. We've liked his tape from the start, and he would be the top receiver on the board if he were a little stronger and tougher in traffic. Still, he's physically gifted and a silky smooth route runner, and Hunter knows how to separate. He did have his share of drops, but he also made some tough catches and was the guy Vols QB Tyler Bray looked for when the team needed a big play. Previously: NR
28. Zach Ertz* TE6-6249
Analysis: Ertz has impressive ball skills and runs good routes, and his size and ability to separate make him a matchup nightmare. Like Eifert, he has the ability to stretch the middle of the field and is an effective wall-off blocker. Previously: 29
29. Cordarrelle Patterson* WR6-3 205
Analysis: Patterson is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball in space, and he can contribute out of the backfield and as a return man. His physical skills are undeniable, but he played only one year at the highest level in college football and is raw in terms of route running and reading coverages. Previously: 25
30. Kevin Minter* ILB6-2244
Analysis: Minter has some limitations and didn't turn many heads at the combine, but the more tape I watch, the more his instincts, aggressiveness and ability to read plays shine through. His timed speed is not elite, but his reaction skills allow him to play faster than he is on the stopwatch. Previously: NR
31. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB6-0⅜ 189
Analysis: Wreh-Wilson's overall skill set is strong. He plays with balance and body control in man coverage, and he's willing and effective in run support. He gained steam with a strong Senior Bowl and continued that at the combine. Previously: 20
32. Desmond TrufantCB5-11⅛190
Analysis: We always liked Trufant's game. He does just about everything well, though his ball skills could be a little more consistent. His tape didn't indicate elite speed, but he was good enough at the combine. His combination of speed and arm length is impressive. Trufant has good size, and in a league starved for good cover guys, his production could move him into first round. Previously: NR
Out of the rankings: Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore, Ohio State DT Johnathan Hankins, LSU DE Sam Montgomery, Mississippi State CB Johnthan Banks
<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8998378/2013-nfl-draft-todd-mcshay-updated-top-32" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft201 ... ted-top-32</a>
The NFL combine has come and gone, and while workout numbers will affect the stock of some players, the time outside of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis was even more valuable in terms of shaping our Scouts Inc. draft board.
We spent nearly every spare minute immersed in film of prospects from the defensive front seven, in an effort to finish our final evaluations on those players. The result is big names moving up and down -- in some cases off the board entirely.
The biggest news is Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore falling out of our updated ranking for the top 32 overall prospects. Yes, Moore hurt himself by putting up only 12 bench-press reps at the combine and looking somewhat pedestrian in other areas, but unimpressive tape is what drags him down the most.
Moore's lack of upper-body explosiveness was evident before he ever got on the bench in Indy, and his film shows a player who rarely uses his hands against blockers. He's a good athlete who can be disruptive, but he has some maturing to do as a player and in terms of work ethic.
Front-seven players have been the talk of the draft process, and our recent film work reinforces that. Prospects like Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo and Ezekiel Ansah had good showings at the combine, but they are moving up because of what we see upon further examination of their game tape.
Here's how things stand at this point, with pro day workouts and individual sessions with teams still to come. Non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
1. Luke Joeckel*OT6-5¾306
Analysis: Joeckel's balance, footwork and ability to recover in pass protection are outstanding. He takes good angles in the run game and gets to the second level well. Joeckel showed well against the likes of Alabama and LSU during the season, and he continues to solidify an elite grade. Previously: 2
2. Sharrif Floyd* DT6-3298
Analysis: Floyd thrived when moved from end to tackle in 2012. He is effective in tight quarters, moves well for his size and improved his ability to use upper-body power to shock blockers. He is able to locate the ball, shed blocks and flow to the ball as quickly as any defensive tackle in this year's class. Previously: 7
3. Dee Milliner* CB6-0¾197
Analysis: Milliner posted a 4.37 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, adding great top-end speed to the instincts, recognition skills and discipline that stand out on film. He is also reliable in run support. Milliner is not elite in man coverage but is excellent in zone, and with his good short-area quickness topping things off, he's clearly the top corner on the board. Previously: 3
4. Eric FisherOT6-7⅛297
Analysis: Fisher stood out at the Senior Bowl with his impressive length, nimble feet and balance in pass protection. He shows good footwork and the ability to hit moving targets when pulling and appears to have the power to create movement at the point of attack. He could anchor more effectively at times, but he has the skill set to thrive at left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 5
5. Chance WarmackOG6-2⅜325
Analysis: Warmack is a big, strong, nasty lineman with good smarts and athleticism. He shows awareness, is an easy mover in pass protection and has power as a run-blocker. The best guard I've evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick. Previously: 4
6. Star LotuleleiDT6-3320
Analysis: Lotulelei was flagged with a heart condition by doctors at the NFL combine, but his current ranking continues to reflect only what we think of him as a player. His condition is being evaluated and it hasn't been decided whether he will work out at Utah's pro day or at a later date, but we won't drop him significantly in the rankings until we have definitive answers about his long-term prognosis. As for Lotulelei on the field, he could use some polish as a pass-rusher but has a good overall skill set with strong hands, nimble feet, good range and the ability to quickly discard blockers. Previously: 1
7. Dion Jordan DE6-6⅛239
Analysis: Jordan posted a 4.60 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, which helps his stock a bit, but it's his athleticism and versatility on tape that are his biggest assets. He has fluid feet and hips and good upper-body power and lower-body explosiveness, and he can play multiple roles along the front seven. It's easy to envision him coming off the board in the top 10 overall. Previously: 11
8. Ezekiel Ansah DE6-6273
Analysis: Ansah is raw and lacks ideal experience, but his elite combination of size, speed, length and overall athleticism makes him a disruptive presence. He wowed scouts at the combine, and the comparisons to Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul are warranted. Ansah belongs in the top 12 picks, and I'll be surprised if he makes it out of the top 20. Previously: 21
9. Barkevious Mingo* DE6-5240
Analysis: His production was not elite in 2012, but the more tape we watch on Mingo, the more his upside and ability to disrupt show through. He has good length, an elite first step, great range and a very good closing burst. Previously: 8
10. Lane Johnson OT6-6305
Analysis: Johnson has nailed the pre-draft process, showing up big during Senior Bowl week and impressing teams with his skills and character during the combine. He could add some strength and improve his hand use, but Johnson's offensive line experience is limited and those things will come in time. He has the athleticism and movement skills to be a good starting left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 17
11. Jonathan Cooper OG6-3320
Analysis: Cooper is the best blocker in space in this class and would be a perfect fit in a zone-blocking scheme. He has quickness, mobility, explosive power, good feet and balance that all jump out on film. He shows awareness in pass protection and plays with an edge. Cooper is making a solid case as an early first-round pick. Previously: 16
12. Kenny Vaccaro S6-0½ 210
Analysis: I like Vaccaro's all-around game, and his combine workout matched up with the explosive movement skills we see when studying his film. He has good size and the ability to come down and cover slot receivers, though there are slight concerns about his top-end speed. A good 40-yard dash at his pro day would put those to rest and cement him as a high-first-round pick. Previously: 6
13. Alec Ogletree* ILB6-3237
Analysis: Ogletree didn't blow anyone away at the combine and comes with some character baggage, but his tape shows him making plays from sideline to sideline and flashing potential as a pass-rusher. He needs to become a little stronger at the point of attack, but Ogletree is the best inside linebacker in the class. Previously: 12
14. Bjoern Werner* DE6-4255
Analysis: Werner started fast in 2012, showing improved pass-rush skills to go with his ability to set the edge as a run defender. His production slowed later in the season, but Werner's quickness and strong hands are impressive and he can convert speed to power when rushing the passer. Previously: 9
15. D.J. Fluker* OT6-4⅞355
Analysis: Fluker is a massive, mauling right tackle prospect who plays with an edge and can engulf smaller defenders. His weight and conditioning will have to be monitored, but Fluker shows a good motor. He lacks ideal quickness in pass protection, but when he's able to lock on to pass-rushers, he is hard to get around. Previously: NR
16. Sheldon Richardson DT6-2⅞290
Analysis: Richardson was the best player on a bad Missouri defense, and he played hard despite additional attention from offense and his team's overall struggles. He can penetrate with a quick first step and has excellent straight-line speed, good range and power as a bull rusher. Previously: 10
17. Tavon Austin WR5-8⅜173
Analysis: Austin is one of the few players who got a real boost from the combine. His 4.34-second 40-yard dash confirms the explosive long speed we see on film, and it makes you feel a little better about his pint-sized frame. Austin is versatile enough to play in the slot or the backfield, as well as return kicks, and his elite quickness and agility make him a dynamic playmaker in space. Previously: 31
18. Sylvester Williams DT6-2320
Analysis: Williams' standout showing at the Senior Bowl backed up a strong regular season, when he played faster than ever after shedding weight and getting fully healthy. He has the power to press blockers into the backfield, pop at the point of attack as a tackler and instincts and quick hands to get off blocks. Previously: 15
19. Geno Smith QB6-2¾208
Analysis: Smith was trending down after an inconsistent finish to the 2012 season, but he was the most athletic quarterback at the combine and is locking down the top spot at the position. His arm strength is not elite, but he can push the ball vertically at times. His confidence, footwork and mechanics all stand out when he's playing at a high level. Previously: 23
20. Jarvis Jones*OLB6-2242
Analysis: Like with Lotulelei, this ranking is only about Jones as a player. It has nothing to do with the spinal stenosis issue teams are investigating or the fact that he didn't work out at the combine. Jones has terrific instincts and straight-line burst and uses his hands well, but he's not an overall athlete and his size will present some scheme-fit concerns. Previously: 14
21. Keenan Allen* WR6-3206
Analysis: Allen is dealing with a knee injury that prevented him from working out at the combine, making his pro day an important part of his evaluation. On the field, Allen was productive thanks to his combination of size, speed, body control and hands. He doesn't have elite speed to take the top off NFL coverage, but his size and strength allow him to win one-on-one battles downfield. Previously: 28
22. Tyler Eifert TE6-6250
Analysis: Eifert looked good at the combine and backed up what we've seen on film. He has the body control and ball skills to make tough catches, the speed to work the seam and the competitiveness to make plays going over the middle of the field. Previously: 32
23. Johnathan Jenkins DT6-4⅛363
Analysis: As we've dug deeper into Jenkins' film, we see a little more quickness and range than we first thought, and Jenkins has a motor that never stops. He has the size and strength to control blockers on the inside, and while he does get fatigued at times and will play a little high as a result, the effort is always there. Previously: 24
24. Eddie Lacy* RB5-10220
Analysis: He didn't work out at the combine, but Lacy built some momentum with a standout performance in the BCS title game. He is a decisive runner with good size and speed, adequate agility and an effective spin move. Lacy shows good instincts and patience and fights hard to finish runs. Previously: 30
25. Manti Te'oILB6-1248
Analysis: Another player who is trending down based solely on film and not on any other factor. Te'o was sliding down the board before his poor showing at the combine, thanks to questions about his movement skills and ability to take on and shed blockers. Previously: 18
26. Kawann Short DT6-3⅛325
Analysis: Short showed more consistency, better effort and impressive production in 2012. He displayed explosiveness and the ability to penetrate and disrupt along the interior, giving himself a chance to be in the first-round mix. Previously: 19
27. Justin Hunter* WR6-4 205
Analysis: Hunter absolutely nailed the combine and got a boost from his performance. We've liked his tape from the start, and he would be the top receiver on the board if he were a little stronger and tougher in traffic. Still, he's physically gifted and a silky smooth route runner, and Hunter knows how to separate. He did have his share of drops, but he also made some tough catches and was the guy Vols QB Tyler Bray looked for when the team needed a big play. Previously: NR
28. Zach Ertz* TE6-6249
Analysis: Ertz has impressive ball skills and runs good routes, and his size and ability to separate make him a matchup nightmare. Like Eifert, he has the ability to stretch the middle of the field and is an effective wall-off blocker. Previously: 29
29. Cordarrelle Patterson* WR6-3 205
Analysis: Patterson is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball in space, and he can contribute out of the backfield and as a return man. His physical skills are undeniable, but he played only one year at the highest level in college football and is raw in terms of route running and reading coverages. Previously: 25
30. Kevin Minter* ILB6-2244
Analysis: Minter has some limitations and didn't turn many heads at the combine, but the more tape I watch, the more his instincts, aggressiveness and ability to read plays shine through. His timed speed is not elite, but his reaction skills allow him to play faster than he is on the stopwatch. Previously: NR
31. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB6-0⅜ 189
Analysis: Wreh-Wilson's overall skill set is strong. He plays with balance and body control in man coverage, and he's willing and effective in run support. He gained steam with a strong Senior Bowl and continued that at the combine. Previously: 20
32. Desmond TrufantCB5-11⅛190
Analysis: We always liked Trufant's game. He does just about everything well, though his ball skills could be a little more consistent. His tape didn't indicate elite speed, but he was good enough at the combine. His combination of speed and arm length is impressive. Trufant has good size, and in a league starved for good cover guys, his production could move him into first round. Previously: NR
Out of the rankings: Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore, Ohio State DT Johnathan Hankins, LSU DE Sam Montgomery, Mississippi State CB Johnthan Banks
