Looking at early projections for 2014/Wagoner

[RamBill]

Looking at early projections for 2014
By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/8708/looking-at-early-projections-for-2014

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- Earlier this week, we took a look at how Las Vegas sees the St. Louis Rams and other teams around the league heading into 2014 with their projected over/under win totals.

It's that time of year when people are crunching numbers and trying to pinpoint how something nearly impossible to predict will play out. And so the good people over at Footballoutsiders.com ran their own statistics in an effort to project how the 2014 season would play out.

If you're a Rams fan, you probably didn't like the results. According to those projections, the Rams will again finish fourth in the NFC West division with a projected record of 6-10.

These projections take into account many variables including defense-adjusted value over average ratings and accounts for regression or progression toward the mean for units that might have over-performed or under-performed the previous season. Injuries and offseason additions and subtractions were also accounted for in the projections.

While 6-10 would certainly be a disappointing outcome, it's also worth noting that these numbers have Seattle winning the division with 10 wins. That's unlikely to happen but gives you a better idea of how difficult the NFC West figures to be.

Strength of schedule is another indicator used in the formula and the Rams have what is currently viewed as the second-toughest schedule in the league. San Francisco's ranks third, Arizona's is fourth and Seattle's is sixth. That's not surprising since those teams all play a total of six games against one another.

The analysis of the Rams' projected record also includes this from Footballoutsiders founder Aaron Schatz:

"As for St. Louis, as good as the front four will be, you still have to score points to win football games. A big Sam Bradford breakout could finally come in 2014, but it isn't a high probability."

As many already suspect, the biggest question for the Rams will be can they score enough points to keep up in the rough and tumble NFC West? Only time will tell.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Wonder if Mr. Wagoner gets tired of having to come up with something to write about everyday or ever other day on this team in the offseason.

 

[RamzFanz]

"A big Sam Bradford breakout could finally come in 2014, but it isn't a high probability."

Um, what was last season? Did he suck or something?

 

[den-the-coach]

Wonder if Mr. Wagoner gets tired of having to come up with something to write about everyday or ever other day on this team in the offseason.

Actually I think it would be easy you can spend the time analysing each position versus the roster as a whole. Also the breakdown of the coaching staff and this would give some insight into the likes of Sean Hooey, Justin Veltung & Darren Woodard for example?

I realize not exciting for some, however, I eat that stuff up besides how about an article about the Rams not drafting a linebacker and their confidence in the likes of Ray-Ray Armstrong and Daren "Stormin Norman" Bates? IMO coming up with something to write about when it comes to the Rams is easy like Sunday Morning.

 

[mr.stlouis]

"A big Sam Bradford breakout could finally come in 2014, but it isn't a high probability."

Um, what was last season? Did he suck or something?

I don't get it, man. While Sam was in the game, few QB's played better. This offense was in shambles it's first seven games, surprisingly, and Sam was by far the best player.

 

[Thordaddy]

I don't get it, man. While Sam was in the game, few QB's played better. This offense was in shambles it's first seven games, surprisingly, and Sam was by far the best player.

It's pack mentality man,pure and simple ,deviate from the Global Warming meme you get ostracized, Sams not likely to get better is the Dogma deviate your outed as an unclean non believer.

 

[blackbart]

No one ever holds these clowns responsible for their predictions. I wonder how good Footballoutsiders founder Aaron Schatz predictions have been in the past?

 

[mr.stlouis]

It's pack mentality man,pure and simple ,deviate from the Global Warming meme you get ostracized, Sams not likely to get better is the Dogma deviate your outed as an unclean non believer.

That's a good way to put it. "Rams will never be contenders with Bradford as the QB" is the biggest cliche' in sports.

Not. An. Exaggeration.

 

[max]

Last year FO said the Skins would win more than 10 games. And the Cards and Chiefs would win 6.

And they said the Rams would win 6 as well.

I have no idea what teams will move up and what teams will move down, but I don't need to spend time effort and money on a fancy model to tell me the same thing.

Essentially, those guys at FO are just more guys with an opinion hiding behind their BS model.

I stopped reading their pompous drivel years ago.

 

[PressureD41]

"A big Sam Bradford breakout could finally come in 2014, but it isn't a high probability."

Um, what was last season? Did he suck or something?

Ya pretty much 2 TDs per game w/out a running game & the defense knew it too. Can't wait for Sam too lite them up this season

 

[lockdnram21]

if the line becomes a strength and WR step up Bradford will be in the top 10 of QB'S at end of season. It starts with the line and running the ball effectively. Then Bradfords going to pick defenses a part. He has the tools to be a very good Qb.

 

[SaneRamsFan]

There was a point last year where I was SERIOUSLY concerned about the team and coaching staff and it had absolutely nothing to do with Sam Bradford. It's a shame Sam got hurt, because the lost experience with him, the receivers, and the offense would have been invaluable going into this year. But what needed to be straightened out could be done without Sam, and thankfully the adjustments were made, the coaching staff proved themselves in a huge way. No offense to Kellen Cldmons but winning seven games was a miracle.. I am FRIGGIN stoked for 2014, but until we prove it on the field there will be no national resppect for this team. Cant wait to see them all jumping on the bandwagon by about week six.

 

[lockdnram21]

Also i think we will be 10-6 and make it as a wild card

 

[Dodgersrf]

10 and 6 wins the NFC west? Doubt it.
This division is going to beat the snot out of the AFC west this year.
Those projections are a joke.

 

[PressureD41]

if the line becomes a strength and WR step up Bradford will be in the top 10 of QB'S at end of season. It starts with the line and running the ball effectively. Then Bradfords going to pick defenses a part. He has the tools to be a very good Qb.

Seriously well said this is exactly how I see it to.. Can't blame everything on one position (WR) it's a team game & Bradford finally has a team that can compete at a high-level JUST LIKE HIM

 

[rdlkgliders]

I don't get it, man. While Sam was in the game, few QB's played better. This offense was in shambles it's first seven games, surprisingly, and Sam was by far the best player.

mr.stlouis
I agree with you unfortunately he was injured too early and we had a bad offensive start to the season. Not to mention he played his worst game college or pro in front of a national prime time audience. We need to come out and win a couple games and stay close to the top of the NFC before he will get positive attention. If we are losing he won't draw much positive attention from the masses due to our ball control clock managing offense that is not designed to put up big points week after week and grab attention.

 

[SierraRam]

Actually I think it would be easy you can spend the time analysing each position versus the roster as a whole. Also the breakdown of the coaching staff and this would give some insight into the likes of Sean Hooey, Justin Veltung & Darren Woodard for example?

I realize not exciting for some, however, I eat that stuff up besides how about an article about the Rams not drafting a linebacker and their confidence in the likes of Ray-Ray Armstrong and Daren "Stormin Norman" Bates? IMO coming up with something to write about when it comes to the Rams is easy like Sunday Morning.

Agree - Our roster is considerably better almost everywhere - I'm hoping Fish has a FA in mind to shore up our LB's. 6-10 means we lose a lot of winnable games. I betting that's behind us and we split within the division, kill the Redskins, Cowboys, Vikes, Raiders, Bucs, Giants and Chargers. 10-6

"Stormin' Norman" Bates

 

[mr.stlouis]

mr.stlouis
I agree with you unfortunately he was injured too early and we had a bad offensive start to the season. Not to mention he played his worst game college or pro in front of a national prime time audience. We need to come out and win a couple games and stay close to the top of the NFC before he will get positive attention. If we are losing he won't draw much positive attention from the masses due to our ball control clock managing offense that is not designed to put up big points week after week and grab attention.

I think starting the year 3-0 or 4-0 is very realsistic. Even then, though, they'll be saying "wait til" they play their rivals" or some crap like that. Until we show we are the best team in this division, Bradford will get all the heat. That's how rediculous it is.

 

[NJRamsFan]

How does one figure out the probability of Sam having a breakout year or not? Lol whatta joke

 

[-X-]

How does one figure out the probability of Sam having a breakout year or not? Lol whatta joke