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An open letter to NFL teams before free agency: Don't waste your money
By Jason La Canfora
March 7, 2016 3:28 pm ET
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...eams-before-free-agency-dont-waste-your-money
To Whom It May Concern:
Re: Free Agency
Importance: High
Dear GMs of bad teams with oodles of cap space to spend:
Don't do it. Don't allow yourselves to be manipulated. Don't try to throw empty dollars and hollow cap space at your problems. Don't get suckered (and, in the cases of some of you, don't get fooled again). Don't repeat the mistakes of your brethren.
I know I say this every year at this time, and I know most of you won't pay any attention to this here little column, but please, I beg of you, be smart and judicious with how you try to build your team in this next week. There is a very good chance you will end up doing more damage than good. And especially this year -- with an even weaker free-agent class than last year -- and with more cap space to throw around than ever (per the NFLPA the 32 NFL teams have a collective $205,517,903 in cap space at their disposal), this is very dangerous time to be working for an owner who seems determined to throw money around like early-2000s Dan Snyder.
So, I will repeat again. Don't do it.
Let's for a moment recall some of the franchises who have "won" free agency in recent years. The Bills and Dolphins truly prospered last year from their lavish spending, did they not? Going from patently mediocre to, well, patently mediocre in the case of Buffalo and devolving into total train-wreck in Miami, leaving a trail of carnage from the head coach on down a mere month into the season.
Oh yeah, and recall the last time the Dolphins "won" free agency under former management, with that bonanza for Dannell Ellerbe and Mike Wallace and all those other dudes they ended up cutting like 18 months later? Or the other time with the Browns under former management -- not the Paul Kruger time, but the Karlos Dansby/Ben Taint time? How about the Colts with the old-guy brigade of Frank Gore and Todd Herremans and Andre Johnson a year ago? Yeah, notsomuch.
Has Sashi Brown learned from the Browns' myriad mistakes in free agency?(USATSI)
Or the year the Titans tried to buy like a brand new offensive line and gave millions to, gulp, Shonn Greene, and remained one of the worst teams in the worst division in football? Or all those years where Jerry Jones and Snyder tried to buy Lombardi Trophies? So, um, how have those splurges the Saints have made the past few years -- making Jairus Byrd the highest-paid safety ever and all that good stuff -- worked out for them? Hmm, nothing like the smell of salary cap hell in the morning to let me know March has arrived and finally spring is just around the corner!
So, what great mistakes will front offices make this time around? Who will spend biggest for aging and/or flawed free agents who will make marginal commitments to equally-as-flawed teams that will not improve them in the standings? Oh, so many of the usual suspects await.
The Browns ($21M in cap space), the Titans ($21M) and the Jags ($33M) are the teams with the most to spend, and, well, the most to lose should they gamble on players who don't really end up helping the cause. For every time a club like the Broncos -- already on the cusp of greatness -- makes selective forays to land DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward on what amount to short-term team deals, or the Pats go all-in on Darrelle Revis on a one-year deal -- and win it all -- the vast majority of times it's lesser teams blowing wads of money on middling players.
And the teams that will be labeled by many as the big "losers" in free agency, will in fact by doing little or simply managing to retain a few key free agents of their own. Some of the execs I trust the most when it comes to this stuff have had ample time to assess this market, and here is what they have to say:
"We're pretty much going to sit this out," said one cap expert. "The market is already too crazy at our positions of need. If these players end up getting what their agents say they are going to get, then the best thing we can do is to do nothing."
Another top executive: "I'm glad our hands are tied somewhat with the cap. This is not the kind of crop of players to get in a bidding war over. I don't see the value."
Another exec: "A lot of the usual suspects will be making a lot of the usual mistakes.
Yet another: "I know the Raiders and Jaguars are saying they won't be spending big, but there are a lot of skeptics out there."
There will be pressure. Owners want some hope to sell during what is a very long NFL offseason. Fans are increasingly engaged in the nuances of the free-agent process and don't want their teams to look like they are stuffing money in their pockets or not being active enough. Salary cap space is boundless in some cities. And bad teams have significant needs all over the place that they realize cannot be filed in just one draft.
There are some quality players available -- Kalechi Osemele, Janoris Jenkins, Marvin Jones are just some of the players best poised to cash-in -- and with the right teams, at the right price, they could help get someone closer to the postseason. At least some of them will likely end up, however, with the perpetually bad franchises that are several players away, and on teams that, should they ever really turn the corner, this year's free-agent class will be long gone as cap or production casualties.
So, yeah, I am basically wasting my time by penning this letter. But I'll keep banging my head against the wall, anyway. Just don't blame the players and don't blame the agents. Their windows to get paid are tiny. It's just how things go in this ultimate team sport, where a bevy of high-paid individuals from outside the organization generally are not going to elevate the collective to where it needs to go. And, well, here we go again.
Here are some more free agency notes from around the NFL:
Denver Broncos
As I tweeted over a week ago, the Texans continue to do a lot of work on Brock Osweiler and are very intrigued by the Denver quarterback. And this is not lost on the pending free agent. That market force, coupled with the massive deals signed by Cousins, Bradford and Joe Flacco last week, has Osweiler in a position where even $15M a season might not get a deal done with the Broncos. That's staggering, considering Osweiler has played just half a season and lost his job to a barely-functional and now-retiring Peyton Manning before the postseason. Imagine what kind of bank Osweiler would be making had Manning not gotten back in there and the kid played well in the postseason? Regardless, John Elway is feeling the squeeze and Osweiler has sufficient leverage to get more money than anyone would have imagined, say, a month ago.
Jacksonville Jaguars
If Dwayne Allen really gets $8M at the top of the tight end market and a guy like Marcedes Lewis gets $4M a year despite his decreased production in recent years, as some teams are telling me they expect, then in retrospect the massive deal the Jags gave Julius Thomas a year ago might not look bad. Assuming he can stay healthy.
Kansas City Chiefs
There is a lot of interest in Tamba Hali around the league but I have a feeling the Chiefs end up finding a way to keep their iconic pass rusher from leaving the fold. There are a lot of strong binds between that player and that team -- but also no shortage of interest in him elsewhere that continues to surge.
Los Angeles Rams
Continue to hear that Janoris Jenkins, with cap-needy teams like Oakland and Jacksonville interested, could land $14M per year on a long-term deal. The Rams may regret having only one member of their starting secondary under contract as it stands right now.
New York Giants
The Giants seem pretty intent about trying to land a pass rusher -- Mario Williams, Charles Johnson or Jason Pierre-Paul -- before the official opening of free agency on Wednesday if at all possible.
Washington Redskins
I heard from multiple sources that had the Redskins not placed the franchise tag on Kirk Cousins, things may have gone very differently for Sam Bradford in Philadelphia. Specifically, sources said had Washington not tagged Cousins the Eagles would have let Bradford test the market and in the meantime they would have made a strong attempt to sign Cousins to be their quarterback, weakening the reigning NFC East division champ and adding a younger, healthier quarterback with more upside. Had the Redskins tried to get tricky with the transition tag on Cousins the Eagles may have tried front-loading an offer sheet as well (the Redskins have a tight cap situation) but in the end Washington GM Scot McCloughan made the smart play and rather than risk losing Cousins over a few million bucks, he placed the franchise tag on him.
By Jason La Canfora
March 7, 2016 3:28 pm ET
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...eams-before-free-agency-dont-waste-your-money
To Whom It May Concern:
Re: Free Agency
Importance: High
Dear GMs of bad teams with oodles of cap space to spend:
Don't do it. Don't allow yourselves to be manipulated. Don't try to throw empty dollars and hollow cap space at your problems. Don't get suckered (and, in the cases of some of you, don't get fooled again). Don't repeat the mistakes of your brethren.
I know I say this every year at this time, and I know most of you won't pay any attention to this here little column, but please, I beg of you, be smart and judicious with how you try to build your team in this next week. There is a very good chance you will end up doing more damage than good. And especially this year -- with an even weaker free-agent class than last year -- and with more cap space to throw around than ever (per the NFLPA the 32 NFL teams have a collective $205,517,903 in cap space at their disposal), this is very dangerous time to be working for an owner who seems determined to throw money around like early-2000s Dan Snyder.
So, I will repeat again. Don't do it.
Let's for a moment recall some of the franchises who have "won" free agency in recent years. The Bills and Dolphins truly prospered last year from their lavish spending, did they not? Going from patently mediocre to, well, patently mediocre in the case of Buffalo and devolving into total train-wreck in Miami, leaving a trail of carnage from the head coach on down a mere month into the season.
Oh yeah, and recall the last time the Dolphins "won" free agency under former management, with that bonanza for Dannell Ellerbe and Mike Wallace and all those other dudes they ended up cutting like 18 months later? Or the other time with the Browns under former management -- not the Paul Kruger time, but the Karlos Dansby/Ben Taint time? How about the Colts with the old-guy brigade of Frank Gore and Todd Herremans and Andre Johnson a year ago? Yeah, notsomuch.
Has Sashi Brown learned from the Browns' myriad mistakes in free agency?(USATSI)
Or the year the Titans tried to buy like a brand new offensive line and gave millions to, gulp, Shonn Greene, and remained one of the worst teams in the worst division in football? Or all those years where Jerry Jones and Snyder tried to buy Lombardi Trophies? So, um, how have those splurges the Saints have made the past few years -- making Jairus Byrd the highest-paid safety ever and all that good stuff -- worked out for them? Hmm, nothing like the smell of salary cap hell in the morning to let me know March has arrived and finally spring is just around the corner!
So, what great mistakes will front offices make this time around? Who will spend biggest for aging and/or flawed free agents who will make marginal commitments to equally-as-flawed teams that will not improve them in the standings? Oh, so many of the usual suspects await.
The Browns ($21M in cap space), the Titans ($21M) and the Jags ($33M) are the teams with the most to spend, and, well, the most to lose should they gamble on players who don't really end up helping the cause. For every time a club like the Broncos -- already on the cusp of greatness -- makes selective forays to land DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward on what amount to short-term team deals, or the Pats go all-in on Darrelle Revis on a one-year deal -- and win it all -- the vast majority of times it's lesser teams blowing wads of money on middling players.
And the teams that will be labeled by many as the big "losers" in free agency, will in fact by doing little or simply managing to retain a few key free agents of their own. Some of the execs I trust the most when it comes to this stuff have had ample time to assess this market, and here is what they have to say:
"We're pretty much going to sit this out," said one cap expert. "The market is already too crazy at our positions of need. If these players end up getting what their agents say they are going to get, then the best thing we can do is to do nothing."
Another top executive: "I'm glad our hands are tied somewhat with the cap. This is not the kind of crop of players to get in a bidding war over. I don't see the value."
Another exec: "A lot of the usual suspects will be making a lot of the usual mistakes.
Yet another: "I know the Raiders and Jaguars are saying they won't be spending big, but there are a lot of skeptics out there."
There will be pressure. Owners want some hope to sell during what is a very long NFL offseason. Fans are increasingly engaged in the nuances of the free-agent process and don't want their teams to look like they are stuffing money in their pockets or not being active enough. Salary cap space is boundless in some cities. And bad teams have significant needs all over the place that they realize cannot be filed in just one draft.
There are some quality players available -- Kalechi Osemele, Janoris Jenkins, Marvin Jones are just some of the players best poised to cash-in -- and with the right teams, at the right price, they could help get someone closer to the postseason. At least some of them will likely end up, however, with the perpetually bad franchises that are several players away, and on teams that, should they ever really turn the corner, this year's free-agent class will be long gone as cap or production casualties.
So, yeah, I am basically wasting my time by penning this letter. But I'll keep banging my head against the wall, anyway. Just don't blame the players and don't blame the agents. Their windows to get paid are tiny. It's just how things go in this ultimate team sport, where a bevy of high-paid individuals from outside the organization generally are not going to elevate the collective to where it needs to go. And, well, here we go again.
Here are some more free agency notes from around the NFL:
Denver Broncos
As I tweeted over a week ago, the Texans continue to do a lot of work on Brock Osweiler and are very intrigued by the Denver quarterback. And this is not lost on the pending free agent. That market force, coupled with the massive deals signed by Cousins, Bradford and Joe Flacco last week, has Osweiler in a position where even $15M a season might not get a deal done with the Broncos. That's staggering, considering Osweiler has played just half a season and lost his job to a barely-functional and now-retiring Peyton Manning before the postseason. Imagine what kind of bank Osweiler would be making had Manning not gotten back in there and the kid played well in the postseason? Regardless, John Elway is feeling the squeeze and Osweiler has sufficient leverage to get more money than anyone would have imagined, say, a month ago.
Jacksonville Jaguars
If Dwayne Allen really gets $8M at the top of the tight end market and a guy like Marcedes Lewis gets $4M a year despite his decreased production in recent years, as some teams are telling me they expect, then in retrospect the massive deal the Jags gave Julius Thomas a year ago might not look bad. Assuming he can stay healthy.
Kansas City Chiefs
There is a lot of interest in Tamba Hali around the league but I have a feeling the Chiefs end up finding a way to keep their iconic pass rusher from leaving the fold. There are a lot of strong binds between that player and that team -- but also no shortage of interest in him elsewhere that continues to surge.
Los Angeles Rams
Continue to hear that Janoris Jenkins, with cap-needy teams like Oakland and Jacksonville interested, could land $14M per year on a long-term deal. The Rams may regret having only one member of their starting secondary under contract as it stands right now.
New York Giants
The Giants seem pretty intent about trying to land a pass rusher -- Mario Williams, Charles Johnson or Jason Pierre-Paul -- before the official opening of free agency on Wednesday if at all possible.
Washington Redskins
I heard from multiple sources that had the Redskins not placed the franchise tag on Kirk Cousins, things may have gone very differently for Sam Bradford in Philadelphia. Specifically, sources said had Washington not tagged Cousins the Eagles would have let Bradford test the market and in the meantime they would have made a strong attempt to sign Cousins to be their quarterback, weakening the reigning NFC East division champ and adding a younger, healthier quarterback with more upside. Had the Redskins tried to get tricky with the transition tag on Cousins the Eagles may have tried front-loading an offer sheet as well (the Redskins have a tight cap situation) but in the end Washington GM Scot McCloughan made the smart play and rather than risk losing Cousins over a few million bucks, he placed the franchise tag on him.
