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I'll be putting out my Rookie Rankings every two weeks. But because the NFL regular season is technically played out over 17 weeks, the first version had to be published after Week 1.
Suffice to say, the sample size didn't do me any favors, and the guy who put together the best Week 1 -- Eric Reid of the 49ers -- dropped here after some hiccups over the last two weeks. Let me go over the parameters for this again really quickly:
• The rankings reflect play over the whole season, so don't just concentrate on the previous Sunday.
• Positional value matters, but overall performance and impact on the team matter a little more.
• I like to ask: Would this player be a starter on most teams? (I think that hurts QBs some).
• Total snap count matters. Within the context of the position, I am looking for the rate of participation.
With those rules in place, let's jump into the rankings after Week 3.
1. DeAndre "Poop" Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
He has been a key entity on offense thus far, showcasing terrific hands and the ability to come through when the defense knows he's a likely target. He's playing like a five-year veteran, not a rookie with just three games under his belt. So far, he also has been the perfect complement to Andre Johnson, with 18 catches to Johnson's 25, and 26 targets to Johnson's 35. A couple of other things stick out to me. For one, Hopkins isn't just running in a straight line. He has shown a good diversity in his route running, and is showing some veteran chops. Secondly, he has exactly zero drops so far on 26 targets. When you add that up in the context of a position where it has been tough for rookies to deliver major impact year after year, you have the most impressive rookie to me so far.
2. Sheldon Richardson, DT, New York Jets
One of the things I really liked about Richarson at Missouri was his ability to disrupt the run game. A lot of defensive tackles or 3-4 defensive ends who have enough quickness to penetrate lose leverage against the run and get themselves out of position. But not Richardson, who didn't just occupy blocks, he could make tackles on his own both in the backfield and down the line. The Jets are getting that player so far. He's currently fourth in total tackles on the Jets defense, and has been a steady, solid force in all three games to start the season. He's always around the ball on run stops. If the Jets are still giving up just 3.2 yards per carry after Week 17, Richardson could still be this high.
3. Larry Warford, G, Detroit Lions
Am I breaking my own rule on positional value by having Warford this high? Maybe. But consider a couple factors. For one, Detroit is going to be throwing it a lot as a general rule, and Warford has been really impressive as a pass protector. That's impressive given his reputation as a 6-foot-3, 333-pound road grader coming into the draft. In fact, if there's an area he needs to improve early on, it's probably in creating a little more push in the run game, where the Lions average just 2.9 yards per carry so far this season. But based on what I'm seeing, Warford has been one of the top 15 or so guards in the NFL so far, and secondly, he gets a little bump for the early stability he has created at what was a major position of need for the Lions.
4. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
If you want a good example of why Bernard should be on the field more, consider his rushing total next to that of BenJarvus Green-Ellis so far in 2013. Bernard is averaging 5.0 yards per rush on just 22 carries; Green-Ellis has averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 46 carries. Hey, you can make small sample sizes work in your favor pretty easily, but we all knew the Bengals were seriously lacking for explosiveness out of the backfield, and thus felt compelled to draft Bernard. And every carry that Bernard doesn't get is a missed shot at a piece of "chunk yardage," in the parlance of my friend Trent Dilfer. Bernard already has had a big impact in a small sample size, and that should only grow as the coaches see the discrepancy between their two RBs become more clear.
5. Star Lotulelei, DT, Carolina Panthers
I suppose I could knock the rookie from Utah and say he wasn't on the field much against the Giants on Sunday, but when you win 38-0 there's not a lot of reps in it for your run-stopper-for-hire. The Panthers have improved their run defense in 2013, and Lotulelei, who was the best interior run defender in the draft, is a big reason why. He just has that rare ability to be both quick and powerful, making him a tough guy to handle along the interior. He has a good sense of when to attack and when to simply occupy and attempt to eat up as much space and blocks as he can. He can also get into the backfield and wreak some havoc on occasion. He's never going to be a go-to lineman against heavy passing teams, so he loses an ounce of value there, but it's safe to say the Panthers are feeling great about this pick.
6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions
He was just decent in the first two games, then kicked it up several notches against Washington this past Sunday, flashing the type of pass-rush ability that could make him a Pro Bowl candidate early in his pro career. On tape, Ansah's closing speed is what really gets your attention. We talk about guys who can convert speed to power, but Ansah can go from speed (burst off the line) to power (pushing a tackle into the backfield) back to speed (getting free and chasing down the play). He has 2.5 sacks so far, but I think Ansah has been even better as a run defender. He can bend the edge and force a runner back inside which, when facing the Lions, is an unpleasant place to go. The Lions' draft has looked great so far, and will be even better when Darius Slay cleans up his technique and becomes more reliable.
7. Kiko Alonso, ILB, Buffalo Bills
Question: What linebacker has played more snaps than any other in the NFL through three weeks? It's Alonso. I can already hear some of you saying that's more a testament to the Bills' porous defense than Alonso, but give the kid some credit. The 6-3 1/2, 240-pound rookie from Oregon currently leads the Bills defense in tackles, and has made his presence felt beyond simply cleaning up. He also has recorded a sack, has two tackles for loss, has forced a fumble and has a pair of interceptions. Granted, some of his tackles have been 7-9 yards down the field, but you can't argue with the overall results, and better play up front will give him a little help in clearing blocks. I also think the big thing to realize with Alonso getting so many snaps is he's going to be a huge help for the Bills in coverage, and in the modern NFL, you need every linebacker to be able to cover. The guy has good instincts against the pass and really moves well in space.
8. Barkevious Mingo, OLB, Cleveland Browns
Maybe this is a little bit of recency bias, because Mingo's best work was done Sunday against the Vikings. But I'm giving him a pass for not playing in Week 1, because he was coming back from a bruised lung, and just grading him based on two weeks. And considering he's coming off that pretty uncomfortable injury, Mingo has flashed dynamic ability when it comes to chasing down QBs. His cat-like quickness is off the charts and the Browns have effectively moved him around, varying his attack points. So far he has two sacks and another couple of hurries in two games, and given what we've seen it's almost hard to imagine him finishing with lower than double-digit sacks. He needs more snaps (I see him down for 79 total so far), but on a per-snap basis, he has been strong. And if you re-watch the Vikings game, you can see how scary a blocking assignment he is for tackles.
9. Kenny Vaccaro, S, New Orleans Saints
I think Vaccaro's overall impact isn't going to seem as big to some who want to grade safeties on how "complete" they are, but if you focus on coverage you have to say Vaccaro has been an impactful performer in the Saints' deep patrol from the beginning. He still needs to work on his angles to the ball, but he has made some game-changing plays in coverage and that allows me to forgive a fair share of rookie mistakes in terms of how technically proficient he has been. The Saints are seeing a dramatic turnaround on defense this season a year after they gave up more yardage than any team in history last season. Consider a slice of credit for Vaccaro, and he is only going to get better.
10. Jordan Mills, OT, Chicago Bears
If you asked who has been better in total performance, you might pick the rookie to Mills' left on the right side of the Bears offensive line. And guard Kyle Long has been good. But let's put Mills' performance in context. Not only is he a rookie protecting Jay Cutler, he's also played his first three games against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. All of those teams have an idea of how to create pressure off the edge. He's also got a rookie as his inside help. And so far he has given up exactly zero sacks from the tackle position, and he also hasn't taken a single penalty. He belongs here.
11. Geno Smith, QB, New York Jets
So far Geno has been more clutch than good, coming up with a big pass against the Bills and a big penalty against the Bucs. So if you think this is a little too low based on the Jets' 2-1 start, I'd argue that Smith has been pretty inconsistent with his accuracy, has taken some sacks that he shouldn't have and wouldn't be starting in most places. But this is supposed to be a compliment -- just as I said it was a great pick for the Jets when they got Smith so low -- so let's also point out that Smith has shown a lot of poise, clearly knows how to throw a deep ball (which could be a bigger part of what the Jets do going forward, particularly if Stephen Hill is running those routes), has tried to limit his mistakes by throwing the ball away on a number of occasions and isn't helped by a weak running game. I think he's on his way up these rankings, not down.
12. Alec Ogletree, OLB, St. Louis Rams
If you watch Ogletree on every play you might actually get a little frustrated, because he has a tendency to overpursue plays because he gets there too fast, or not read the play quite quickly enough and not get there in time or get himself caught on a block. But on the positive side, you can see a guy who is flying to the ball, will learn to shed and angle himself into blocks better, and simply needs to gain the reps (and he has been on the field for virtually every play so far) to become a really good player. Remember, this is a kid who switched from safety to linebacker at Georgia, and then came out after his junior year. And he also gets bonus points here because he's putting in time on special teams, too.
13. Tyrann Mathieu, S, Arizona Cardinals
He showed off the ball skills with a sure-handed interception Sunday, and it's pretty clear after three weeks that Mathieu's reputation as a playmaker on defense is going to hold as he makes the transition. Those hands are going to allow him to pick off a lot of passes -- he really does have the ball skills of a wide receiver -- when he gets a better feel for how to cover at the NFL level. Remember that Mathieu is making a transition and seeing more time at slot or, depending on how the sub package looks, safety.
14. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, New England Patriots
Don't ever say the Patriots aren't resourceful. The guy leading the team in targets was a college QB drafted in the seventh round. The guy who's currently second? That would be Thompkins, a 25-year-old rookie undrafted free agent. And yet somehow, the team is 3-0. Thompkins actually has only nine receptions on those 28 targets, but he comes off a game where he had two touchdowns because he did a good job of creating space as the play was extended, and I think he'll become more and more efficient as the season goes along and he picks up some of the nuances that will allow him to succeed working with Tom Brady. What's notable to me is he has three catches of 20-plus yards so far. Nobody else on the Patriots has more than one. Thompkins gets a bump here because he's already an integral part of the Patriots plans.
15. Eric Reid, S, San Francisco 49ers
He has missed some tackles, and hasn't had any free INTs head his way after an auspicious Week 1 start, but Reid has been a positive in coverage. He takes good routes to the ball, and now must do a better job of wrapping up when he gets there. To keep it simple: I think he's playing better than the results, because he just needs to clean up on some fundamental errors. But he has the ability to do that. Donte Whitner is the greater force against the run from the safety position in this defense, but I think Reid will get there.
Next up
EJ Manuel, QB, Bills: Expect him to bounce back after a poor performance against the Jets.
John Jenkins, DT, New Orleans: A very positive start at a major need position. But the Saints are still leaky against the run.
Kyle Long, G, Chicago: Maybe he deserves to be higher, but I gave Mills a little more credit based on positions.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR/KR, Minnesota: Starting to show up down the field as a pass-catcher and on special teams. Will he get enough targets?
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati: Just 12 targets through three games. They'll get him more involved, because he can catch it if it's near him.
T.J. McDonald, S, St. Louis: Some rookie mistakes, but could turn into a steal out of Round 3.
I'll be putting out my Rookie Rankings every two weeks. But because the NFL regular season is technically played out over 17 weeks, the first version had to be published after Week 1.
Suffice to say, the sample size didn't do me any favors, and the guy who put together the best Week 1 -- Eric Reid of the 49ers -- dropped here after some hiccups over the last two weeks. Let me go over the parameters for this again really quickly:
• The rankings reflect play over the whole season, so don't just concentrate on the previous Sunday.
• Positional value matters, but overall performance and impact on the team matter a little more.
• I like to ask: Would this player be a starter on most teams? (I think that hurts QBs some).
• Total snap count matters. Within the context of the position, I am looking for the rate of participation.
With those rules in place, let's jump into the rankings after Week 3.
1. DeAndre "Poop" Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
He has been a key entity on offense thus far, showcasing terrific hands and the ability to come through when the defense knows he's a likely target. He's playing like a five-year veteran, not a rookie with just three games under his belt. So far, he also has been the perfect complement to Andre Johnson, with 18 catches to Johnson's 25, and 26 targets to Johnson's 35. A couple of other things stick out to me. For one, Hopkins isn't just running in a straight line. He has shown a good diversity in his route running, and is showing some veteran chops. Secondly, he has exactly zero drops so far on 26 targets. When you add that up in the context of a position where it has been tough for rookies to deliver major impact year after year, you have the most impressive rookie to me so far.
2. Sheldon Richardson, DT, New York Jets
One of the things I really liked about Richarson at Missouri was his ability to disrupt the run game. A lot of defensive tackles or 3-4 defensive ends who have enough quickness to penetrate lose leverage against the run and get themselves out of position. But not Richardson, who didn't just occupy blocks, he could make tackles on his own both in the backfield and down the line. The Jets are getting that player so far. He's currently fourth in total tackles on the Jets defense, and has been a steady, solid force in all three games to start the season. He's always around the ball on run stops. If the Jets are still giving up just 3.2 yards per carry after Week 17, Richardson could still be this high.
3. Larry Warford, G, Detroit Lions
Am I breaking my own rule on positional value by having Warford this high? Maybe. But consider a couple factors. For one, Detroit is going to be throwing it a lot as a general rule, and Warford has been really impressive as a pass protector. That's impressive given his reputation as a 6-foot-3, 333-pound road grader coming into the draft. In fact, if there's an area he needs to improve early on, it's probably in creating a little more push in the run game, where the Lions average just 2.9 yards per carry so far this season. But based on what I'm seeing, Warford has been one of the top 15 or so guards in the NFL so far, and secondly, he gets a little bump for the early stability he has created at what was a major position of need for the Lions.
4. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
If you want a good example of why Bernard should be on the field more, consider his rushing total next to that of BenJarvus Green-Ellis so far in 2013. Bernard is averaging 5.0 yards per rush on just 22 carries; Green-Ellis has averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 46 carries. Hey, you can make small sample sizes work in your favor pretty easily, but we all knew the Bengals were seriously lacking for explosiveness out of the backfield, and thus felt compelled to draft Bernard. And every carry that Bernard doesn't get is a missed shot at a piece of "chunk yardage," in the parlance of my friend Trent Dilfer. Bernard already has had a big impact in a small sample size, and that should only grow as the coaches see the discrepancy between their two RBs become more clear.
5. Star Lotulelei, DT, Carolina Panthers
I suppose I could knock the rookie from Utah and say he wasn't on the field much against the Giants on Sunday, but when you win 38-0 there's not a lot of reps in it for your run-stopper-for-hire. The Panthers have improved their run defense in 2013, and Lotulelei, who was the best interior run defender in the draft, is a big reason why. He just has that rare ability to be both quick and powerful, making him a tough guy to handle along the interior. He has a good sense of when to attack and when to simply occupy and attempt to eat up as much space and blocks as he can. He can also get into the backfield and wreak some havoc on occasion. He's never going to be a go-to lineman against heavy passing teams, so he loses an ounce of value there, but it's safe to say the Panthers are feeling great about this pick.
6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions
He was just decent in the first two games, then kicked it up several notches against Washington this past Sunday, flashing the type of pass-rush ability that could make him a Pro Bowl candidate early in his pro career. On tape, Ansah's closing speed is what really gets your attention. We talk about guys who can convert speed to power, but Ansah can go from speed (burst off the line) to power (pushing a tackle into the backfield) back to speed (getting free and chasing down the play). He has 2.5 sacks so far, but I think Ansah has been even better as a run defender. He can bend the edge and force a runner back inside which, when facing the Lions, is an unpleasant place to go. The Lions' draft has looked great so far, and will be even better when Darius Slay cleans up his technique and becomes more reliable.
7. Kiko Alonso, ILB, Buffalo Bills
Question: What linebacker has played more snaps than any other in the NFL through three weeks? It's Alonso. I can already hear some of you saying that's more a testament to the Bills' porous defense than Alonso, but give the kid some credit. The 6-3 1/2, 240-pound rookie from Oregon currently leads the Bills defense in tackles, and has made his presence felt beyond simply cleaning up. He also has recorded a sack, has two tackles for loss, has forced a fumble and has a pair of interceptions. Granted, some of his tackles have been 7-9 yards down the field, but you can't argue with the overall results, and better play up front will give him a little help in clearing blocks. I also think the big thing to realize with Alonso getting so many snaps is he's going to be a huge help for the Bills in coverage, and in the modern NFL, you need every linebacker to be able to cover. The guy has good instincts against the pass and really moves well in space.
8. Barkevious Mingo, OLB, Cleveland Browns
Maybe this is a little bit of recency bias, because Mingo's best work was done Sunday against the Vikings. But I'm giving him a pass for not playing in Week 1, because he was coming back from a bruised lung, and just grading him based on two weeks. And considering he's coming off that pretty uncomfortable injury, Mingo has flashed dynamic ability when it comes to chasing down QBs. His cat-like quickness is off the charts and the Browns have effectively moved him around, varying his attack points. So far he has two sacks and another couple of hurries in two games, and given what we've seen it's almost hard to imagine him finishing with lower than double-digit sacks. He needs more snaps (I see him down for 79 total so far), but on a per-snap basis, he has been strong. And if you re-watch the Vikings game, you can see how scary a blocking assignment he is for tackles.
9. Kenny Vaccaro, S, New Orleans Saints
I think Vaccaro's overall impact isn't going to seem as big to some who want to grade safeties on how "complete" they are, but if you focus on coverage you have to say Vaccaro has been an impactful performer in the Saints' deep patrol from the beginning. He still needs to work on his angles to the ball, but he has made some game-changing plays in coverage and that allows me to forgive a fair share of rookie mistakes in terms of how technically proficient he has been. The Saints are seeing a dramatic turnaround on defense this season a year after they gave up more yardage than any team in history last season. Consider a slice of credit for Vaccaro, and he is only going to get better.
10. Jordan Mills, OT, Chicago Bears
If you asked who has been better in total performance, you might pick the rookie to Mills' left on the right side of the Bears offensive line. And guard Kyle Long has been good. But let's put Mills' performance in context. Not only is he a rookie protecting Jay Cutler, he's also played his first three games against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. All of those teams have an idea of how to create pressure off the edge. He's also got a rookie as his inside help. And so far he has given up exactly zero sacks from the tackle position, and he also hasn't taken a single penalty. He belongs here.
11. Geno Smith, QB, New York Jets
So far Geno has been more clutch than good, coming up with a big pass against the Bills and a big penalty against the Bucs. So if you think this is a little too low based on the Jets' 2-1 start, I'd argue that Smith has been pretty inconsistent with his accuracy, has taken some sacks that he shouldn't have and wouldn't be starting in most places. But this is supposed to be a compliment -- just as I said it was a great pick for the Jets when they got Smith so low -- so let's also point out that Smith has shown a lot of poise, clearly knows how to throw a deep ball (which could be a bigger part of what the Jets do going forward, particularly if Stephen Hill is running those routes), has tried to limit his mistakes by throwing the ball away on a number of occasions and isn't helped by a weak running game. I think he's on his way up these rankings, not down.
12. Alec Ogletree, OLB, St. Louis Rams
If you watch Ogletree on every play you might actually get a little frustrated, because he has a tendency to overpursue plays because he gets there too fast, or not read the play quite quickly enough and not get there in time or get himself caught on a block. But on the positive side, you can see a guy who is flying to the ball, will learn to shed and angle himself into blocks better, and simply needs to gain the reps (and he has been on the field for virtually every play so far) to become a really good player. Remember, this is a kid who switched from safety to linebacker at Georgia, and then came out after his junior year. And he also gets bonus points here because he's putting in time on special teams, too.
13. Tyrann Mathieu, S, Arizona Cardinals
He showed off the ball skills with a sure-handed interception Sunday, and it's pretty clear after three weeks that Mathieu's reputation as a playmaker on defense is going to hold as he makes the transition. Those hands are going to allow him to pick off a lot of passes -- he really does have the ball skills of a wide receiver -- when he gets a better feel for how to cover at the NFL level. Remember that Mathieu is making a transition and seeing more time at slot or, depending on how the sub package looks, safety.
14. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, New England Patriots
Don't ever say the Patriots aren't resourceful. The guy leading the team in targets was a college QB drafted in the seventh round. The guy who's currently second? That would be Thompkins, a 25-year-old rookie undrafted free agent. And yet somehow, the team is 3-0. Thompkins actually has only nine receptions on those 28 targets, but he comes off a game where he had two touchdowns because he did a good job of creating space as the play was extended, and I think he'll become more and more efficient as the season goes along and he picks up some of the nuances that will allow him to succeed working with Tom Brady. What's notable to me is he has three catches of 20-plus yards so far. Nobody else on the Patriots has more than one. Thompkins gets a bump here because he's already an integral part of the Patriots plans.
15. Eric Reid, S, San Francisco 49ers
He has missed some tackles, and hasn't had any free INTs head his way after an auspicious Week 1 start, but Reid has been a positive in coverage. He takes good routes to the ball, and now must do a better job of wrapping up when he gets there. To keep it simple: I think he's playing better than the results, because he just needs to clean up on some fundamental errors. But he has the ability to do that. Donte Whitner is the greater force against the run from the safety position in this defense, but I think Reid will get there.
Next up
EJ Manuel, QB, Bills: Expect him to bounce back after a poor performance against the Jets.
John Jenkins, DT, New Orleans: A very positive start at a major need position. But the Saints are still leaky against the run.
Kyle Long, G, Chicago: Maybe he deserves to be higher, but I gave Mills a little more credit based on positions.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR/KR, Minnesota: Starting to show up down the field as a pass-catcher and on special teams. Will he get enough targets?
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati: Just 12 targets through three games. They'll get him more involved, because he can catch it if it's near him.
T.J. McDonald, S, St. Louis: Some rookie mistakes, but could turn into a steal out of Round 3.
