Kiper: Is Jameis Winston Worth A High Pick?

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RamBill

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Mel Kiper Jr. reacts to Todd McShay’s first mock draft for the 2015 NFL draft and analyzes quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. He says that Winston would be the #1 pick for sure if not for the off field concerns.

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Boffo97

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But with the off field concern, Winston being a complete bust is very possible and more probable than him being worthy of a #1 pick IMO.

There are very few with that many character red flags who do end up good.
 

jrry32

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But with the off field concern, Winston being a complete bust is very possible and more probable than him being worthy of a #1 pick IMO.

There are very few with that many character red flags who do end up good.

I think it's much more of a mixed bag than you're claiming. And a lot of the high draft picks that busted for character purposes didn't have those sort of red flags as prospects...spare Lawrence Phillips, of course.

And I don't agree with you. I think Winston being worthy of a #1 pick is more probable than him busting. I think he makes stupid decisions off the field and is immature but I also am not sold that this is a guy that is going to tank his career with arrests. And if he doesn't do that, I think the world of him as a player.
 

FRO

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To me with Winston it comes down to work ethic and how he takes to coaching. His game translates well to the NFL. He is Big Ben 2.0 and would be a great fit here.
 

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I won't deny that Winston has a ton of talent. He does. But I don't want anyone who has even been accused of sexual assault (or threatening sexual assault) on my team. That's why I didn't want Lewan. That's why I don't want Winston.
 

jrry32

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I won't deny that Winston has a ton of talent. He does. But I don't want anyone who has even been accused of sexual assault (or threatening sexual assault) on my team. That's why I didn't want Lewan. That's why I don't want Winston.

So...no to Peyton Manning? ;)
 

jrry32

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No to Peyton Manning. I'm dead serious.

Well, you have your principles. I can respect that. I don't agree but you're certainly entitled to your stance.
 

Boston Ram

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I would bet that Mariota has a higher probability of busting than Winston. Winston is a winner plain and simple and if he leads FSU to another championship, then i don't see how he is not the 1 pick.
 

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I see Winston being a great fit with the Titans. Wisenhunt coaches Big Ben and the two a scary similar.
 

moklerman

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And I don't agree with you. I think Winston being worthy of a #1 pick is more probable than him busting. I think he makes stupid decisions off the field and is immature but I also am not sold that this is a guy that is going to tank his career with arrests. And if he doesn't do that, I think the world of him as a player.
Just being a #1 overall pick brings with it an increased chance of failure. Expectations, the likely poor team the player is going to, etc. The best thing for Winston, IMO, is to fall in the draft and go to a better team that can nurture him and let him develop without pressure.
 

jrry32

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Just being a #1 overall pick brings with it an increased chance of failure. Expectations, the likely poor team the player is going to, etc. The best thing for Winston, IMO, is to fall in the draft and go to a better team that can nurture him and let him develop without pressure.

You can say that for any player going #1. As long as Winston keeps his shit together off the field, he'll be fine on it.
 

moklerman

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You can say that for any player going #1. As long as Winston keeps his crap together off the field, he'll be fine on it.
True, but I think a guy who's already got off-the-field questions about him isn't going to benefit from being placed in a pressure cooker.

Greater chance for success: Winston to the Jets at #1 overall or Winston sliding down the board to the Steelers to back up Ben for a couple of years?
 

jrry32

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True, but I think a guy who's already got off-the-field questions about him isn't going to benefit from being placed in a pressure cooker.

Greater chance for success: Winston to the Jets at #1 overall or Winston sliding down the board to the Steelers to back up Ben for a couple of years?

What QB wouldn't have a greater chance for success in the latter situation? It's not a question.

Winston is already in the pressure cooker at FSU. I think he can handle it.
 

moklerman

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What QB wouldn't have a greater chance for success in the latter situation? It's not a question.

Winston is already in the pressure cooker at FSU. I think he can handle it.
Based on how well he's handled things so far? But now with millions of dollars in his pocket? I'm not sure what you're basing your opinion on. On a loaded FSU team he can get his crap together just enough in second halfs to overcome his poor starts but that doesn't mean he's going to suddenly mature off the field.

Especially if he goes #1 overall to a large market team. His ego will be even bigger than the contract he gets and he'll be expected to play right away. He needs to be humbled and focus on working hard at his craft, not be lauded and handed a starting job.

If he goes first, I think the league will eat him alive.
 

jrry32

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Based on how well he's handled things so far? But now with millions of dollars in his pocket? I'm not sure what you're basing your opinion on. On a loaded FSU team he can get his crap together just enough in second halfs to overcome his poor starts but that doesn't mean he's going to suddenly mature off the field.

Yes, based on how well he's handled things so far.

I don't care what you think I'm basing my opinion on. I have my opinion and it's just as valid as yours.

Especially if he goes #1 overall to a large market team. His ego will be even bigger than the contract he gets and he'll be expected to play right away. He needs to be humbled and focus on working hard at his craft, not be lauded and handed a starting job.

And I'm sure you know Winston personally and have psychologically analyzed him to have come to these conclusions.
 

moklerman

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Yes, based on how well he's handled things so far.

I don't care what you think I'm basing my opinion on. I have my opinion and it's just as valid as yours.
I assume we're basing our opinions on what's happened and to say that Winston has handled things well seems delusional. I don't say that in an inflammatory way either. I'm not trying to belittle your point of view or be insulting but if Winston isn't the poster boy for red flags then I don't know who is.
And I'm sure you know Winston personally and have psychologically analyzed him to have come to these conclusions.
I don't have to know each hornet personally to surmise that poking a hornet's nest will produce a predictable result. It doesn't guarantee anything but we're talking about predictions and likelihoods.

I agree that it's possible that Winston could see the light, turn over a new leaf and act completely differently than he has up to this point and on top of that, handle the pressure and expectations of a #1 overall pick where most others have failed. But would that be a reasonable assumption?
 

jrry32

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I assume we're basing our opinions on what's happened and to say that Winston has handled things well seems delusional. I don't say that in an inflammatory way either. I'm not trying to belittle your point of view or be insulting but if Winston isn't the poster boy for red flags then I don't know who is.

He's handled things plenty well on the football field.

You can't call someone delusional in a non-inflammatory way. You are belittling my point of view so spare me the passive aggressive bullshit.

Poster boy for red flags? How about Janoris Jenkins? Arrests, numerous failed drug tests, booted off his team, etc.

Oddly enough, Jenkins seems to have matured.

I don't have to know each hornet personally to surmise that poking a hornet's nest will produce a predictable result. It doesn't guarantee anything but we're talking about predictions and likelihoods.

I agree that it's possible that Winston could see the light, turn over a new leaf and act completely differently than he has up to this point and on top of that, handle the pressure and expectations of a #1 overall pick where most others have failed. But would that be a reasonable assumption?

You do have to know that they're hornets though. Which you don't. You are assuming.

Seems to me that Winston handled the pressures and expectations of being a top high school recruit by leading his team to a National Championship and winning the Heisman. Then he handled the expectations and pressures of being the defending National Champion by leading his team undefeated to the college football playoffs. And he managed to handle all these expectations and pressures with the media up his ass, a rape accusation being held over his head, and his school trying to setup a conduct hearing that could expel him.

Yea, I'm unconcerned about Winston's ability to handle pressure and expectations on the field. He'll be just fine. I'm unconcerned about him in the locker-room. I'm unconcerned about his work ethic and drive.

The only concern I have is with him off the field. He needs to stop being an immature dumbass. But then again, he's 20 years old. The rape accusation is an additional concern...but none of us know if he actually did it.

So no, the situation is not how you're framing it.
 

moklerman

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Well, considering the huge drop in efficiency I don't see that your interpretation of events is entirely accurate either. The guy's being insulated and protected by his university yet his play on the field has been affected.

"He needs to stop being an immature dumbass". Sort of sums up the concerns that people have. So, maturity issues and a drop in production seem like big red flags if you ask me.

If a QB is an immature dumbass, it makes it difficult to assume he's going to be as motivated and committed as an NFL QB needs to be. If he's handed the starting job of an NFL team by being taken #1 overall, then I find it hard to imagine he's going to be motivated to change his ways.
 

jrry32

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Well, considering the huge drop in efficiency I don't see that your interpretation of events is entirely accurate either. The guy's being insulated and protected by his university yet his play on the field has been affected.

Winston's play has also raised scouting concerns, as his interception total rose from 10 in 2013 as a freshman, to 17 this season. Fisher told Mike and Mike that some 70 percent of Winston's interceptions have not been the quarterback's fault.

"He needs to stop being an immature dumbass". Sort of sums up the concerns that people have. So, maturity issues and a drop in production seem like big red flags if you ask me.

If a QB is an immature dumbass, it makes it difficult to assume he's going to be as motivated and committed as an NFL QB needs to be. If he's handed the starting job of an NFL team by being taken #1 overall, then I find it hard to imagine he's going to be motivated to change his ways.

No, it doesn't. Those are two different things. Maturity and work ethic/competitive drive are two very different things. Brett Favre was and is an immature guy. Nobody would ever question his work ethic or competitive fire.

I have no questions about Winston's work ethic, competitiveness, or commitment to playing QB.

Those things are not one and the same. They're not comparable. I'm question Winston's decision making and maturity AWAY FROM THE FIELD.