- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 48,145
- Name
- Burger man
<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8928986/2013-nfl-draft-todd-mcshay-mel-kiper-explain-their-mock-draft-differences" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft201 ... ifferences</a>
You guys split on the No. 1 pick. Feeling confident?
Todd: Not really. I think there are two questions we still have to answer. One, what do the Kansas City Chiefs do at QB? Only the Chiefs know their plan of attack. They need to evaluate QBs in free agency and rookie QBs. They need to figure out if a free-agent QB is going to be a stopgap QB or quote-unquote franchise QB. Is there a QB that interests them at some point in the draft? The second question is what their plan is with Brandon Albert. If they don't have a QB they like for the No. 1 overall pick and Albert comes back, there's a stronger likelihood they could go in a different direction. That's why I went with the choice of Star Lotulelei.
Mel: I think they're still in the process of evaluating a number of players for that pick. I put Luke Joeckel there because I think right now he represents the most guaranteed value from the selection. In the absence of certainty, that's a direction you go, and there's no way they have certainty with that pick yet. I'll say this: I disagree that the No. 1 pick could be a QB. At this point, it's just hard for me to see Geno Smith, Matt Barkley or a guy like Mike Glennon being considered enough of a guarantee at that spot. I think where you see Kansas City think about QB is either at No. 33 overall, or if they trade up into the 20s and get a better value. And you're right, Todd, free agency or a trade could still solve that problem.
Todd, you went with Geno Smith at No. 8. Is that a need pick or player pick? And Mel -- no QBs at all?
Todd: It's because of need. I think Geno goes in the first round. You can't project trades, and it wouldn't even shock me if he went No. 2 to Jacksonville or No. 4 to Philly. He probably won't go at No. 7 to Arizona, because Bruce Arians likes the vertical passing game and could go with Mike Glennon in the second round. But going to Buffalo at No. 8 could work. If it doesn't, a team could move up to the mid-to-late portion of the first round. Teams have a funny way of moving up to get guys, especially at the QB position.
Mel: I don't have a QB going in the first round in my mock. It sounds like a cop-out, but Todd knows this too -- we just can't project a trade into the mock, and I really think that based on where they sit on draft boards right now, the maneuvering to get a QB shouldn't be at the top of the draft, it should be in the 20s or even the teens. Now, is that pick possible for Buffalo? I guess. What happens when QBs go so high is teams can't assume they can simply trade down and still get their guy. Look at Miami last year. I thought Ryan Tannehill was a bit of a reach at No. 8. They even acknowledged it! But if they called the 12 teams right behind them and didn't get a good fit for a trade, do they trade all the way down to, say, No. 25 and just hope their guy is still around? No. So I think it's fair to reflect how desperate teams are at QB, I'm just not ready to do it yet. If Buffalo, Kansas City, Arizona or Jacksonville strikes out completely in free agency and can't even deal for a guy like Matt Flynn, then I'll have to react to it. But I sure hope one of these QBs shows something more in the coming weeks too.
Any running back worthy of a first-round pick this year? Mel had one, Todd didn't.
Todd: I don't have a first-round grade on any running back. Eddie Lacy out of Alabama received the highest grade, with Le'veon Bell and Montee Ball getting second-round grades. I gave Jawan Jamison a higher grade than I expected, a late-second-round grade. I've heard people say that Giovani Bernard may go in the late first and early second round, but I just don't see it on tape. He has versatility, but he doesn't break enough tackles, and there are questions about his durability.
Mel: I've changed my opinion on this, and I now have Eddie Lacy as an option. If he shows he can catch the ball well, I think he's getting close to what we might have at one time called an "every-down" back. Now, that's really the problem though. What NFL team that doesn't have Adrian Peterson truly has an "every-down" back? Guys just aren't used like that. I had Bernard atop my running back rankings this year, but while he's versatile, I can't see him in Round 1. Same with a guy like Kenjon Barner, who offers a great speed element but isn't a 20-carry back. Ball lacks enough explosiveness for me to go that high. So right now it's Lacy, and let's hope he is fantastic in workouts.
D.J. Fluker: Todd had him out, Mel had him in. Who's right?
Todd: He could go in the first round, and I considered him for Baltimore, which needs a left tackle. But Fluker's a classic right tackle who has to improve his footwork. For me, he grades out as a second-round pick.
Mel: I might be a little caught up in the measurables -- the really long arms coaches crave in left tackles, the huge size, the ability to really maul in the run game when he's focused -- but I think he can go in Round 1. I think the big question is which teams see him as a future starting left tackle. If you feel he can stay there, he's a first-rounder. If you feel, as Todd says, he has to be on the right side, he's probably not.
Name a guy you wanted to put in but couldn't fit.
Todd: It was Tavon Austin more than anyone. I thought about putting him with the 49ers, but they need a guy with more size and someone who can get downfield as a perimeter vertical threat. I also thought about the Patriots, and if Jonathan Cooper is gone, I could see Austin going there.
Mel: I'll go with Xavier Rhodes, the cornerback out of Florida State. He doesn't have the ceiling of a guy like Dee Milliner, but teams drafting in the 24-32 range will see a corner who can start immediately. Rhodes has a lot of polish, and while he's not explosive changing directions out of his backpedal, he's smooth and experienced.
You guys split on the No. 1 pick. Feeling confident?
Todd: Not really. I think there are two questions we still have to answer. One, what do the Kansas City Chiefs do at QB? Only the Chiefs know their plan of attack. They need to evaluate QBs in free agency and rookie QBs. They need to figure out if a free-agent QB is going to be a stopgap QB or quote-unquote franchise QB. Is there a QB that interests them at some point in the draft? The second question is what their plan is with Brandon Albert. If they don't have a QB they like for the No. 1 overall pick and Albert comes back, there's a stronger likelihood they could go in a different direction. That's why I went with the choice of Star Lotulelei.
Mel: I think they're still in the process of evaluating a number of players for that pick. I put Luke Joeckel there because I think right now he represents the most guaranteed value from the selection. In the absence of certainty, that's a direction you go, and there's no way they have certainty with that pick yet. I'll say this: I disagree that the No. 1 pick could be a QB. At this point, it's just hard for me to see Geno Smith, Matt Barkley or a guy like Mike Glennon being considered enough of a guarantee at that spot. I think where you see Kansas City think about QB is either at No. 33 overall, or if they trade up into the 20s and get a better value. And you're right, Todd, free agency or a trade could still solve that problem.
Todd, you went with Geno Smith at No. 8. Is that a need pick or player pick? And Mel -- no QBs at all?
Todd: It's because of need. I think Geno goes in the first round. You can't project trades, and it wouldn't even shock me if he went No. 2 to Jacksonville or No. 4 to Philly. He probably won't go at No. 7 to Arizona, because Bruce Arians likes the vertical passing game and could go with Mike Glennon in the second round. But going to Buffalo at No. 8 could work. If it doesn't, a team could move up to the mid-to-late portion of the first round. Teams have a funny way of moving up to get guys, especially at the QB position.
Mel: I don't have a QB going in the first round in my mock. It sounds like a cop-out, but Todd knows this too -- we just can't project a trade into the mock, and I really think that based on where they sit on draft boards right now, the maneuvering to get a QB shouldn't be at the top of the draft, it should be in the 20s or even the teens. Now, is that pick possible for Buffalo? I guess. What happens when QBs go so high is teams can't assume they can simply trade down and still get their guy. Look at Miami last year. I thought Ryan Tannehill was a bit of a reach at No. 8. They even acknowledged it! But if they called the 12 teams right behind them and didn't get a good fit for a trade, do they trade all the way down to, say, No. 25 and just hope their guy is still around? No. So I think it's fair to reflect how desperate teams are at QB, I'm just not ready to do it yet. If Buffalo, Kansas City, Arizona or Jacksonville strikes out completely in free agency and can't even deal for a guy like Matt Flynn, then I'll have to react to it. But I sure hope one of these QBs shows something more in the coming weeks too.
Any running back worthy of a first-round pick this year? Mel had one, Todd didn't.
Todd: I don't have a first-round grade on any running back. Eddie Lacy out of Alabama received the highest grade, with Le'veon Bell and Montee Ball getting second-round grades. I gave Jawan Jamison a higher grade than I expected, a late-second-round grade. I've heard people say that Giovani Bernard may go in the late first and early second round, but I just don't see it on tape. He has versatility, but he doesn't break enough tackles, and there are questions about his durability.
Mel: I've changed my opinion on this, and I now have Eddie Lacy as an option. If he shows he can catch the ball well, I think he's getting close to what we might have at one time called an "every-down" back. Now, that's really the problem though. What NFL team that doesn't have Adrian Peterson truly has an "every-down" back? Guys just aren't used like that. I had Bernard atop my running back rankings this year, but while he's versatile, I can't see him in Round 1. Same with a guy like Kenjon Barner, who offers a great speed element but isn't a 20-carry back. Ball lacks enough explosiveness for me to go that high. So right now it's Lacy, and let's hope he is fantastic in workouts.
D.J. Fluker: Todd had him out, Mel had him in. Who's right?
Todd: He could go in the first round, and I considered him for Baltimore, which needs a left tackle. But Fluker's a classic right tackle who has to improve his footwork. For me, he grades out as a second-round pick.
Mel: I might be a little caught up in the measurables -- the really long arms coaches crave in left tackles, the huge size, the ability to really maul in the run game when he's focused -- but I think he can go in Round 1. I think the big question is which teams see him as a future starting left tackle. If you feel he can stay there, he's a first-rounder. If you feel, as Todd says, he has to be on the right side, he's probably not.
Name a guy you wanted to put in but couldn't fit.
Todd: It was Tavon Austin more than anyone. I thought about putting him with the 49ers, but they need a guy with more size and someone who can get downfield as a perimeter vertical threat. I also thought about the Patriots, and if Jonathan Cooper is gone, I could see Austin going there.
Mel: I'll go with Xavier Rhodes, the cornerback out of Florida State. He doesn't have the ceiling of a guy like Dee Milliner, but teams drafting in the 24-32 range will see a corner who can start immediately. Rhodes has a lot of polish, and while he's not explosive changing directions out of his backpedal, he's smooth and experienced.