Jags vs Pats; unit matchups

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CGI_Ram

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The NFL is a game of matchups. Our strength vs yours, and vice versa.

Teams consistently play well against some, while struggling against others. Case in point our Rams always seem to play well against Seattle. Our units match up well to theirs.

I don’t know the Jaguars very well. Where do they match up well against the Patriots? What about vulnerable spots?

I really want to believe Jacksonville can pull it off... but I can’t get past how bad they’ve been until this season. Are they really ready?

Thoughts appreciated!
 

den-the-coach

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My thoughts, the key to Jacksonville's offense is Fournette and running right at the Patriots, they need to stick with that plan although Belichick will try diligently to take that away and force Bortles to beat them downfield. Bortles will need to run when given the opportunity in order for the Jags to have any chance and if the Jags front four can hit Brady consistently they have a shot, in fact, taking a few roughing calls might not be all that bad to stick it to the primadonna just to intimidate the hell out of him.

The Jags need to make Brady feel 40 and they need to cover Gronk, which could be tough because they could not cover Vance McDonald. In the end, the Officials better be very careful because everyone knows the Pats are not only getting calls go their way, the officials are making new ways to create new opportunities for them and Tom Coughlin will not remain silent if the trend continues in this game.
 

fearsomefour

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Pats are going to crowd the box and try and force Bortkes to throw. It will be tough since NE DBs are allowed to hold all the way down field.
NE 34 Jags 9
 

DaveFan'51

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My thoughts, the key to Jacksonville's offense is Fournette and running right at the Patriots, they need to stick with that plan although Belichick will try diligently to take that away and force Bortles to beat them downfield. Bortles will need to run when given the opportunity in order for the Jags to have any chance and if the Jags front four can hit Brady consistently they have a shot, in fact, taking a few roughing calls might not be all that bad to stick it to the primadonna just to intimidate the hell out of him.

The Jags need to make Brady feel 40 and they need to cover Gronk, which could be tough because they could not cover Vance McDonald. In the end, the Officials better be very careful because everyone knows the Pats are not only getting calls go their way, the officials are making new ways to create new opportunities for them and Tom Coughlin will not remain silent if the trend continues in this game.
Completely agree Coach!! Do we know who will be officiating the game yet!? I actually hope it's someone like Hochuli (sp?)!!
 

sjm1582002

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Jags pass rush seemed to nearly disappear as the Pitt game went on. Can just the dline 4 get consistent pressure on pretty boy?

I do like the Jags secondary vs Patsy wr's. Hopefully they'll rebound after Pittsburg's exceptional athletes made one fantastic td catch after another. Assign a safety to shadow Gronk.

1st and 2nd down play action deep strikes if NE deploys 8 box.

Keep grinding away with Fournette. Yeldon, his backup, is a real tough customer, too. Chris Ivory did not even dress last game.

Physically beat up the Patsies on both sides of the ball.
 

den-the-coach

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Keep grinding away with Fournette. Yeldon, his backup, is a real tough customer, too. Chris Ivory did not even dress last game.

Physically beat up the Patsies on both sides of the ball.

Fournette must stay healthy, he seems to have the ankle that bothers him consistently, if the Jags lose Fournette,it's like the Chiefs loosing Kelsey, they're done.
 

Merlin

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If the Pats stop the Jags' running game, it's over. If they don't, Jags have a chance.
 

Prime Time

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/15/afc-championship-patriots-jaguars-preview-prediction

The Jaguars’ Recipe for an AFC Title Game Upset
By ANDY BENOIT
  • It will be Tom Brady going up against a predictable defense, but Jacksonville has the pure talent to keep the Patriots in check. That leaves it up to Blake Bortles and the offense to put enough points on the board

The adage that defense wins championships will be put to the ultimate test Sunday at Foxboro, where the AFC’s best defense (and one of the most talented of this century) faces football’s most complete and accomplished offense. The Saturday night Divisional Round game was like a short journey back in time for the Patriots.

They destroyed Tennessee with the spread formations and horizontal passing of the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman years. Tom Brady was magnificent with pre-snap formation adjustments and quick post-snap decisions, exploiting Titans linebackers and safeties who had struggled much of the year in coverage.

On Sunday against Jacksonville, expect the Patriots to reclaim their 2017 identity as a run-oriented, deep vertical passing offense. Jaguars linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith are simply too fast and dynamic to consistently dink and dunk against.

Danny Amendola and James White will beat them on a few underneath option routes, but that can’t be New England’s foundation. One reason Jacksonville’s defense is special is the chemistry and spatial awareness of its back seven defenders in zone coverage—particularly inside.

Of course, two bigger reasons for Jacksonville’s specialness are its front four (led by superhero Calais Campbell) and the perimeter downfield coverage of first-class corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. A vertical aerial assault is a less-than-ideal approach for attacking this sort of talent. Pittsburgh posted big yards with deep shots against them, but that was thanks to a handful of unbelievable contested catches versus tremendous coverage.

Let’s assume lightning won’t strike twice there—especially given how poorly New England’s undersized wideouts match up downfield against those lanky, physical corners. That’s why the Patriots’ aerial assault must be intertwined heavily with the ground game. You naturally get downfield throws out of running formations, where there’s a more crowded box and routes have more time to unfold. New England’s downfield routes will attack Jacksonville’s safeties.

Aside from a few wrinkles with Quarters coverage and the occasional man coverage blitz, Jacksonville plays a predictable Cover 3. The focus is on out-executing opponents, not out-scheming them. The Cover 3 look becomes all but guaranteed against running formations on early downs.

Coaches will tell you, there’s nothing scarier than Tom Brady knowing what coverage you’re in. Rob Gronkowski will be big; much of New England’s play-action game, especially on fake “power” runs with a pulling guard, centers around hitting him against linebackers and safeties inside. That’s one way Brady will attack Jacksonville’s Cover 3.

New England’s other area of opportunity will be in the hurry-up game, where predictable defenses become even more predictable. Brady will be eager to test a Jaguars defense that substitutes a little less than others and is unaccustomed to playing this late into a season.

It should take no more than 24 points to beat Jacksonville. Because on the other side, it’s unlikely the Jaguars will run roughshod over an always-prepared, fundamentally sound Patriots defense the way they did against the over-confident Steelers. The Patriots might not have the Steelers’ D-line talent, but they’re a sure-tackling, gap-disciplined unit, which is why they quietly allowed the NFL’s fewest points per game over Weeks 6-17.

Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia know Jacksonville will run the ball to hide Blake Bortles and keep Brady off the field. Leonard Fournette is as strong of a finisher as football has. So much of New England’s run defense is built on setting the edge; it’ll be interesting to see whether outside line of scrimmage defenders James Harrison, Trey Flowers, Kyle Van Noy and Eric Lee are more aggressive with crashing down inside this week, given that Jacksonville’s smashmouth ground game so rarely goes outside by design.

If first down play-action passing is important for the Patriots, it’s vital for the Jaguars. Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett want Bortles dropping back and working through traditional full-field progression reads only sparingly. They know New England will force Bortles to hold the ball late into the down (where mistakes become more likely) and that Jacksonville’s receivers and tight ends do not match up well against New England’s man coverage secondary.

With play-action, you not only get the predictable looks from a run defense, you also slice the field in half, presenting either/or decisions for the quarterback. Bortles’ execution on Jacksonville’s well-designed play-action game helped build an early lead at Pittsburgh, and his 14-yard play-action touchdown to fullback Tommy Bohanon late in the fourth quarter cemented it.

(That was a particularly brilliant play design. Most defensive calls do not account for a fullback running a vertical route inside. There’s usually too much traffic to work through, plus the fullback’s backfield alignment makes it hard for his vertical route to get very far. The only way the play works is if you patiently set it up with similar looking run plays earlier, which Jacksonville did—not just against Pittsburgh, but all season.)

A steady rushing attack, successful play-action game plus adherence to the warning that might one day be inscribed on Bortles’s tombstone—Avoid turnovers and limit mistakes!—is Jacksonville’s recipe for pulling off a second, and this time much bigger, playoff road upset. Though this isn’t to say it will happen.

Prediction: Patriots 20, Jaguars 10
 

Angry Ram

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Jaguars better be smart and not act like a bunch of buffoons like they did during and after the Steelers game. Suit up and get ready to play football. Hopefully Tom Coughlin can help in that department.
 

snackdaddy

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Jaguars have a defense that can be pretty darn good. But if they fall behind early it spells trouble. I just cannot wrap my head around the thought of Blake Bortles trying to carry the team if the patsies sell out to stop the run. Jags need turnovers to thrive. Patsies usually take care of the ball. I just don't see it happening for them unless the defense just totally takes over. They were lit up by Big Ben but the offense actually came through for them. I just don't see it happening two weeks in a row.
 

Prime Time

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Hopefully Tom Coughlin can help in that department.

Coughlin is the wild card here. He helped oversee the development of the Jaguars this season, a perennially crappy team that is now deep into the playoffs. TC's Giants held Tom Brady and the New England Scumbags to a combined total of 31 points in two Super Bowls and beat them both times. I'm betting he knows a thing or two about how to get the Jaguars ready for this game. Go Tom, go!
 

Prime Time

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/16/leonard-fournette-ok-after-minor-car-accident/

Leonard Fournette OK after minor car accident
Posted by Josh Alper on January 16, 2018

904941714-e1516125701835.jpg

Getty Images

Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette has come out OK after plenty of on-field collisions during games and the team says he did the same after an off-field collision on Tuesday.

Jaguars spokesman Tad Dickman announced that Fournette was in a minor car accident. Per the announcement, Fournette’s car was rear-ended by another vehicle and both Fournette and the car came through well enough to drive home after the incident.

Ashley Harding of WJXT reports, via the Florida Highway Patrol, that Fournette’s car was the third in a chain reaction caused when another vehicle hit the car behind him and not at fault.

Fournette shook off a first half ankle injury while running 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns to help the Jaguars beat the Steelers 45-42 last Sunday. Getting something similar against the Patriots would be a pretty big boost to Jacksonville’s chances of advancing to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
 

DCH

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The problem the Jags face is that they're primarily a one-dimensional offense, and the Patriots excel at shutting down the best player on an offense. Derrick Henry ran for 28 yards on 12 attempts Saturday after shredding the Chiefs for 153 and two scores - Fournette will get a similar treatment.

Bortles will have to play the role of a competent passer who can hit wide-open targets. That's something he may or may not do, depending on the week.

Gronkowski, Amendola, Lewis and Burkhead will put pressure on the middle of the field; I doubt the Pats will do a lot of passing outside the numbers to Cooks/Hogan, since Bouye and Ramsey are a beastly pair of corners, but as is so often the case, Gronk's size/speed combo becomes the primary chess piece. Cover him with a safety, and he will run over the safety. Cover him with a linebacker, and he will run away from the linebacker. Double cover him, and Brady will find Amendola and his running backs with single coverage.

It should be a good game. I'm looking forward to it.
 

Psycho_X

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If the Jaguars can play mistake free, turnover free football they have a chance. But agree with most of the above, the Patriots will shut down Fournette and make Bortles beat them. And I don't think they will have much of an answer for Gronk which the Patriots will use to take away the Jags pressure ability. They'll have to play mistake free to have a chance.

On the bright side, if the Patriots do win we'll get to see the Jags and Vikings get plenty of shots on ole pretty boy. Of course, the refs will probably flag every hit so hopefully they make them brutally worth it.
 

Rmfnlt

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Coughlin is the wild card here. He helped oversee the development of the Jaguars this season, a perennially crappy team that is now deep into the playoffs. TC's Giants held Tom Brady and the New England Scumbags to a combined total of 31 points in two Super Bowls and beat them both times. I'm betting he knows a thing or two about how to get the Jaguars ready for this game. Go Tom, go!
Bingo!

He (Coughlin) may not be the head coach, but he created the blue print for beating NE.

And... they have the horses to pull it off.
 

DCH

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If the Jaguars can play mistake free, turnover free football they have a chance. But agree with most of the above, the Patriots will shut down Fournette and make Bortles beat them. And I don't think they will have much of an answer for Gronk which the Patriots will use to take away the Jags pressure ability. They'll have to play mistake free to have a chance.

On the bright side, if the Patriots do win we'll get to see the Jags and Vikings get plenty of shots on ole pretty boy. Of course, the refs will probably flag every hit so hopefully they make them brutally worth it.
Interestingly, Brady gets roughing the passer calls less times per sack than 16 QBs, including Bradford, Carr, Newton, Ryan and Brees, and less times per 100 passing attempts than 26 QBs (data from 2009-2017).
 

Soul Surfer

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I'm not going to underestimate Bortles.

I'm not going to underestimate the pass-rush of the Jaguars.