Inside the Numbers Donald and Beckham Jr Negotiations.

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Ram65

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Great read on why it's not easy to give extentions with two years remaining on first contracts. Starts with Beckham but covers Donald as well. I wanted to make a new thread so everyone would have a chance to read it. Worth reading all of it to understand how and why the numbers set up the way they do.


http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/giants-hold-cards-contract-talks-odell-beckham-jr/story?id=47983926
Giants hold all the cards in contract talks with Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr. wants a new deal. Odell Beckham Jr. deserves a new deal, given that he will be the 64th-highest paid wide receiver in football?at $1.8 million this season. He's not the only one from the class of 2014 facing a similar situation.

Aaron Donald might be the best defensive tackle in football, but this year, he will also take home just $1.8 million in actual cash. For comparison,? Kawann Short, who will earn $26 million this season as part of his new extension, will make nearly that much per game. You don't have to be a Rams fan to see how that might be considered inequitable.


Players such as? Taylor Lewan, C.J. Mosley?and Zack Martin also have delivered on their potential after being selected outside of the top 10 picks of the first round of the 2014 draft and are in line for massive contracts. On merit, they all deserve to be paid like players at the top of their respective positions. In reality, they might find it difficult to command the contracts they would hope for.

The problem? Their current contracts. Players such as Beckham and Donald have gotten so good in such a short period of time that they've outgrown their rookie deals with years to go. Meanwhile, the perennially rising cap is leading to players making massive amounts of money in free agency or as they approach the free market. As a result, the economics of an extension for Beckham or Donald this offseason are difficult to square up.

Let's start with the Giants' star receiver. Beckham is entering the fourth year of a four-year deal that was worth just $10.4 million (all guaranteed) at the time of signing. He's due the $1.8 million that I mentioned earlier for 2017. Because he was a first-round pick, though, the Giants can (and have chosen to) lock Beckham up for a fifth season. If Beckham were a top-10 pick, he would receive a fifth-year salary in 2018 equivalent to the average of the top 10 players at his position, which would be $13.3 million. Instead, because he fell to the 12th pick, Beckham will make the average of the third through 25th players at wide receiver, which is just $8.5 million.

All of this means the Giants have massive amounts of leverage in negotiating an extension. They know they have Beckham under contract for the next two seasons at just $10.3 million combined, which is a bargain. Even further, they can use the franchise tag to keep Beckham around in the years to come. My estimate is that the franchise tag for wideouts in 2019 will come in at $18.3 million.

That brings the Giants' potential three-year outlay to $28.6 million. Several organizations around the NFL use a player's earnings over the first three years of a contract extension as a measure of the contract's "true" value, given the likelihood a player will either sign a new deal or be released after those three seasons.

That $28.6 million figure is a fraction of Beckham's true value. Compare Beckham to A.J. Green, who signed his first contract extension before the 2015 season, as he was entering the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. Green racked up $47.3 million over the first three years of his pact. Julio Jones, who signed the same offseason under the same circumstances, hit $47.5 million. Pierre Garcon netted $29 million over the first three years of his free-agent deal with the 49ers this offseason. Garcon is a useful player, but he's not Beckham.

Antonio Brown serves as a useful warning case for a Beckham deal. Like Beckham now, Brown was two years away from unrestricted free agency when he ended up signing a five-year, $42 million extension. That deal wound up being one of the biggest veteran bargains in all of football. When Brown finally signed his new contract this offseason, he ended up netting $68 million over four years as an extension to his old deal.

Brown's new contract guarantees the superstar just his $19 million signing bonus, although he'll likely earn a minimum of $48.9 million over the next three years before the Steelers would ever seriously consider moving on, given the cap structure of the contract. Consider that the Giants could franchise Beckham twice and hold onto him for the next four years at a total of $50.6 million, a far cry from that $68 million Brown figure. In other words, the Giants hold all of the cards in a Beckham deal right now.

The same is true for Donald, who will make just $8.7 million over the next two seasons before his rookie deal expires. Using the same logic for Donald, the Rams could go year-to-year and pay him $15.6 million in 2019 for a three-year total of $24.3 million, then pull the same feat off again in 2020 for a four-year total of $43.0 million.

Those figures are even larger bargains, given how much it costs to lock up dominant interior disruptors in this market. Short, who was set to play under the franchise tag, will earn $51.5 million over the first three years of his new deal, more than double Donald's earnings without a new deal. Fletcher Cox racked up $47.8 million to stick around in Philly. And forget the stratospheric heights of Von Miller, whose contract Donald will try to top. Miller is making $61 million over the first three years of his extension and $78.5 million over its first four seasons, figures that Donald wouldn't be able to come close to matching this offseason, two years away from free agency.

The economics are unfair, but they are what they are. Rookie salaries were rising to astronomical heights before they were capped as part of the negotiations in the most recent collective bargaining agreement. From here, one of three things can happen with players such as Beckham and Donald:

1. Their teams give in and hand them massive deals anyway. It's hardly out of the question that the Giants and Rams just ignore their leverage and hand out full-freight contracts in the hopes of keeping their superstar players happy and focused. They'll attach language about wanting to reward their players, which isn't how the NFL works, when you consider just how many players bust their behinds and don't get large contracts. The Rams are just one year removed from handing an inexplicable deal to Tavon Austin, who will make a shade under $15 million fully guaranteed American dollars this season. Take a look around the league at the NFL's perennial contenders -- the Patriots, Seahawks and Packers come to mind -- and note how rarely they hand out extensions with multiple years to go just to keep players happy.

2. The players wait a year and sign their extensions before the fifth-year option approaches. Just four members of the first-round class of 2013 -- Austin, Lane Johnson, Kyle Long?and Travis Frederick -- signed new deals before the fourth season of their rookie contract began. Of those four, Johnson was the only one who signed before August, agreeing to terms on a five-year, $56 million extension with the Eagles in January 2016. It's also fair to note that Johnson signed what would be considered a below-market deal for left tackle, the position he will eventually play in Philadelphia: He'll make just $31.6 million over the first three years of that extension, less than what Matt Kalil ($32.8 million) earned from the Panthers this offseason.

The leverage situation changes dramatically if these stars wait one more season, which is why most rookie first-rounders end up signing extensions after Year 4. I mentioned earlier how the Giants could control Beckham for $28.6 million over the next three seasons under his current deal. If we're looking at this same question one year from now, the Giants would need to pony up $48.8 million over the ensuing three years to keep Beckham on board with his fifth-year option and two franchise tags. Suddenly, the math in giving Beckham an Antonio Brown-sized extension makes way more sense. Donald would still be a bargain at $36.4 million, but it's certainly more defensible to hand him a contract similar to Short's a year from now.

3. Find a middle ground. All contracts are compromises, of course, and it's not out of the question that these players and teams will find a way to make everyone happy. It's just a lot harder than it would have been before. The Giants would rather not go year-to-year with Beckham, but there's an enormous gap between the $28.6 million three-year cap figure he would be owed now and the $50 million he would seek to be in the stratosphere ahead of Green, Jones and Brown. Is he willing to settle for a contract that won't set records? Are the Giants willing to pay another massive signing bonus this year after shelling out for several free agents last offseason and giving Jason Pierre-Paul $20 million up front earlier this year?

The Rams have to ask themselves the same question. Defensive tackle is about as risky as positions get in terms of injuries; knee problems have derailed stars on a temporary ( Geno Atkins) and permanent (Tommie Harris) basis. The Rams unquestionably want to build around Donald -- he's too good not to keep around and pay. But do they want to make a long-term commitment to him two years before even needing to slap him with the franchise tag? Is Donald willing to take a small percentage of what Miller picked up after winning the Super Bowl? Compromises are there, but when the gap between sides is as wide as it is for Beckham and Donald with their organizations, those compromises can be nearly impossible to find.
 

DaveFan'51

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It could possibly be the Biggest mistake I have ever seen the Rams make IF they don't Pay Donald what he deserves!! And I've been watching them a long time!!(y);):D
 

Rams43

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It could possibly be the Biggest mistake I have ever seen the Rams make IF they don't Pay Donald what he deserves!! And I've been watching them a long time!!(y);):D

Did you read the whole article, Dave?

The part about other very successful teams like the Patriots, Seahawks, and Packers avoid expensive extensions 2 years before an existing contract expires?

And the part about the teams have all the leverage at this point?

This will get done in such a way that both parties walk away happy. Maybe this summer, maybe the next.
 

LACHAMP46

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I'm WITH @DaveFan'51 on this one. @Rams43 we are NOT the Patriots....Seahawks (thank god), or Packers....we need to show the players on the team now, they need to produce, but will be compensated. It took a couple of blog posters several years for me to understand not only the politics but the psychology behind this. We can't have FA's thinking we won't pay our own...we can't have our OWN players thinking we'll pay FA's better than the homegrown talent. Aaron Donald is NOT you average superstar...humble..HARDWORKING....the type of guy you build a culture behind. To lose him...hell, to haggle him over what he's rightly earned is petty....and foolhardy. What good does it do to sign high quality FA's like Whitworth & Woods...only to lose an even BETTER player in Donald? Sorry....bad form IMO. How the hell are we gonna keep a guy like Ogletree, another rising star, playing the hardball negotiating game?
 

Ram65

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Did you read the whole article, Dave?

The part about other very successful teams like the Patriots, Seahawks, and Packers avoid expensive extensions 2 years before an existing contract expires?

And the part about the teams have all the leverage at this point?

This will get done in such a way that both parties walk away happy. Maybe this summer, maybe the next.


That's why I posted the article. It really isn't cut and dry pay the man his money now. They give three possibilities. If Donald wants security now then he has number 3. compromise. He would be better off waiting till next year as was stated. I don't think this is going to be easily done,

1. Their teams give in and hand them massive deals anyway. Take a look around the league at the NFL's perennial contenders -- the Patriots, Seahawks and Packers come to mind -- and note how rarely they hand out extensions with multiple years to go just to keep players happy.

2. The players wait a year and sign their extensions before the fifth-year option approaches.

3. Find a middle ground. All contracts are compromises, of course, and it's not out of the question that these players and teams will find a way to make everyone happy. It's just a lot harder than it would have been before.
 
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Rams43

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I'm WITH @DaveFan'51 on this one. @Rams43 we are NOT the Patriots....Seahawks (thank god), or Packers....we need to show the players on the team now, they need to produce, but will be compensated. It took a couple of blog posters several years for me to understand not only the politics but the psychology behind this. We can't have FA's thinking we won't pay our own...we can't have our OWN players thinking we'll pay FA's better than the homegrown talent. Aaron Donald is NOT you average superstar...humble..HARDWORKING....the type of guy you build a culture behind. To lose him...hell, to haggle him over what he's rightly earned is petty....and foolhardy. What good does it do to sign high quality FA's like Whitworth & Woods...only to lose an even BETTER player in Donald? Sorry....bad form IMO. How the hell are we gonna keep a guy like Ogletree, another rising star, playing the hardball negotiating game?

Some fallacious thinking there, CHAMP. All due respect, of course.

What you are experiencing is what fighter pilots call "target lock". You are so craving that AD be extended by yesterday that you are not noticing some very important surrounding factors.

Factors that were beautifully addressed in the above piece, I might add.

To answer your points:

The Rams are negotiating in good faith as we speak.
The Rams compensate their players very well and the players know it.
Hell, they overcompensate, if anything (Brockers, Barron, Quinn, Austin, TruJo). Any of those guys willing to give some back for the AD kitty? Course not. It doesn't work that way. Contracts are a 2 way street, IOW.
You say we might lose AD. How is that possible? Worst case scenario is he's a Ram through '20.
Ogletree will be paid, he's merely waiting his turn.
Same with Joyner and Alexander. And everyone else, for that matter.

Look, this AD contract melodrama will get handled. All parties will be smiling when it's all over.

Gawd! I can't wait for some real news via camp reports. Lol.
 

LACHAMP46

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Same with Joyner and Alexander. And everyone else, for that matter.
Love everything....except....yea, always exceptions...LOL. I can't believe we'll be keeping Joyner.

Enjoy your 4th weekend 43!!!! BBQ something juicy....
 

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I'm WITH @DaveFan'51 on this one. @Rams43 we are NOT the Patriots....Seahawks (thank god), or Packers....we need to show the players on the team now, they need to produce, but will be compensated. It took a couple of blog posters several years for me to understand not only the politics but the psychology behind this. We can't have FA's thinking we won't pay our own...we can't have our OWN players thinking we'll pay FA's better than the homegrown talent. Aaron Donald is NOT you average superstar...humble..HARDWORKING....the type of guy you build a culture behind. To lose him...hell, to haggle him over what he's rightly earned is petty....and foolhardy. What good does it do to sign high quality FA's like Whitworth & Woods...only to lose an even BETTER player in Donald? Sorry....bad form IMO. How the hell are we gonna keep a guy like Ogletree, another rising star, playing the hardball negotiating game?
We agree for a change!:yess:

Aaron Donald needs to retire with the Rams with a 15 year career, 15 Pro Bowls, and All-Pro for at least 14 years. My avatar fave did those things, and Donald is a lock to be a HOFer if he remains mostly healthy.
 

RamBall

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If the Rams hadnt given TA such a large contract last year they would be better suited to pay AD now. IMO the only way to get an AD deal done is to get a long term deal with Tru done 1st. There just isnt cap space to make it work this off season. Next off season the Rams should be better off cap wise to give AD the contract he deserves, but it is worth the risk to AD to play 1 more year on his rookie deal.
 

OldSchool

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We agree for a change!:yess:

Aaron Donald needs to retire with the Rams with a 15 year career, 15 Pro Bowls, and All-Pro for at least 14 years. My avatar fave did those things, and Donald is a lock to be a HOFer if he remains mostly healthy.
And hopefully he will retire a HOF Ram. But if he signs an extension today, tomorrow or in 4 months doesn't change that.
 

DaveFan'51

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Did you read the whole article, Dave?

The part about other very successful teams like the Patriots, Seahawks, and Packers avoid expensive extensions 2 years before an existing contract expires?

And the part about the teams have all the leverage at this point?

This will get done in such a way that both parties walk away happy. Maybe this summer, maybe the next.
I read the entire article, and there are always exceptions, and Donald is too ELITE of a Player to play games with! he should be signed ASAP! JMO
 

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We agree for a change!:yess:

Aaron Donald needs to retire with the Rams with a 15 year career, 15 Pro Bowls, and All-Pro for at least 14 years. My avatar fave did those things, and Donald is a lock to be a HOFer if he remains mostly healthy.
Your Avatar (love it BTW) never won a championship either. That was also before the days of the salary cap. There needs to be some critical thinking done here. It won't be an easy solution. AD deserves his $, but can the Rams afford to break the bank and still sign other FAs in the next 2 years?? The Tru and Tavon contracts almost make it an impossibility right now. The FO really screwed things up with the JJ / Tru situation. What a mess.
 

kurtfaulk

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The article was blah blah blah. They got one fact correct, Antonio Brown was an amazing deal for the Steelers when they signed him up 2 years before he was due. This is the only fact to take notice of in the whole article.

If the rams don't sign Donald this year it will only get more expensive next year. Much more expensive.

.
 

OldSchool

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The article was blah blah blah. They got one fact correct, Antonio Brown was an amazing deal for the Steelers when they signed him up 2 years before he was due. This is the only fact to take notice of in the whole article.

If the rams don't sign Donald this year it will only get more expensive next year. Much more expensive.

.
And the fact that they got a deal by signing him early will result him him demanding another deal 2 years before this current one is up. It's a vicious cycle, guys will get paid if they deserve it the only question is when.
 

So Ram

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I read the entire article, and there are always exceptions, and Donald is too ELITE of a Player to play games with! he should be signed ASAP! JMO

They basically have him tied up for 4 more years.It's about team , not me. One thing you know about Aaron Donald is he will work hard & show up on Sundays.
--Ogletree needs a long term deal as well.How The Rams structure there salary cap is going to be the foundation of the success the franchise will have. There is no rush on getting the deal done.It's about making the numbers work. The Rams have a few more $$ to front load his contract a little more ?

The deal will get done & time is a virtue.
 

Ram65

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The article was blah blah blah. They got one fact correct, Antonio Brown was an amazing deal for the Steelers when they signed him up 2 years before he was due. This is the only fact to take notice of in the whole article.

If the rams don't sign Donald this year it will only get more expensive next year. Much more expensive.
.

I'm not sure why the included Brown in the article. He was drafted in the 6th round in 2010 and signed a three year deal. They resigned in him in 2012 one year before contract was up not two years. Steelers got good value but, it was a good deal for both at the time. This was incorrect information.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Brown#Professional_career


Why do you think the article was blah blah blah?

The article had some flaws and disconnects yet, I thought it explained why teams don't just give in (give top $$$ contracts) to players with two years remaining on their contract. The better the player the higher the difference is between keeping the current contract with adding the franchise tag for two years (43 Million 4 years) vs a new top dollar deal like Shorts or Vaughn Miller's. They are on new deals not extensions.

The same is true for Donald, who will make just $8.7 million over the next two seasons before his rookie deal expires. Using the same logic for Donald, the Rams could go year-to-year and pay him $15.6 million in 2019 for a three-year total of $24.3 million, then pull the same feat off again in 2020 for a four-year total of $43.0 million.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/kawann-short-12325/
Kawann Short signed a 5 year, $80,500,000 contract with the Carolina Panthers, including a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $35,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $16,100,000. In 2017, Short will earn a base salary of $6,000,000 and a signing bonus of $20,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $10,000,000 and a dead cap value of $35,000,000.


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/von-miller-7717/
Von Miller signed a 6 year, $114,500,000 contract with the Denver Broncos, including a $17,000,000 signing bonus, $70,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $19,083,333. In 2017, Miller will earn a base salary of $17,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $20,400,000 and a dead cap value of $49,600,000.

If the rams don't sign Donald this year it will only get more expensive next year. Much more expensive.

.

These are big money deals with high risk for teams. Unfortunately, we don't know where both sides are at right now. You are assuming Donald will take less money now for the security of having an extension with higher yearly averages and guarantees. That sounds good to me. I don't see the Rams taking a much higher risk and giving him the big deal now like Short and Miller got.


Note: I get into the numbers. There is a lot more to the deal than just sign him.
 

kurtfaulk

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Why do you think the article was blah blah blah?

The article had some flaws and disconnects yet, I thought it explained why teams don't just give in (give top $$$ contracts) to players with two years remaining on their contract. The better the player the higher the difference is between keeping the current contract with adding the franchise tag for two years (43 Million 4 years) vs a new top dollar deal like Shorts or Vaughn Miller's. They are on new deals not extensions.

this is not an ordinary player with question marks. he's the best defender in the league, in a position that's difficult to find such elite talent. the rams aren't going the franchise route, that's why i said the article was blah.

These are big money deals with high risk for teams. Unfortunately, we don't know where both sides are at right now. You are assuming Donald will take less money now for the security of having an extension with higher yearly averages and guarantees. That sounds good to me. I don't see the Rams taking a much higher risk and giving him the big deal now like Short and Miller got.

actually i'm assuming he's going for top dollar. but in two years time top dollar now is like average pay around the league. the rams got him cheap for 3 years. they're already way in front on the pay scale in value for money. i don't think donald can catch up.

.
 

Ram65

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this is not an ordinary player with question marks. he's the best defender in the league, in a position that's difficult to find such elite talent. the rams aren't going the franchise route, that's why i said the article was blah.

Playing Devils advocate one could say DT isn't a game changing position. I don't think the Rams are going to franchise Donald after the TruJo fiasco. However, the Carolina did with Kwamee Short before they gave him a new deal. It still is leverage and they still can redo the deal next year without franchising.


actually i'm assuming he's going for top dollar. but in two years time top dollar now is like average pay around the league. the rams got him cheap for 3 years. they're already way in front on the pay scale in value for money. i don't think donald can catch up.

The NFL is not a value for money business. Bradford didn't give back any money to the Rams who didn't get the value for the money they gave him. The Rams got a good deal so far but, that is because of the CBA. The Rams give him the top dollar deal now they take on the high risk if he gets hurt. I would go with a shared risk with less than top dollar deal right now.

Thanks for your comments. I wanted to know what posters position are as far as how much money Donald should get if they redo the deal now. I hope they get a deal done but, it could take awhile.
 

kurtfaulk

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Playing Devils advocate one could say DT isn't a game changing position.

well it hasn't been for the rams. but that's only because the jeff fisher offenses have been so bad it's impossible to overcome. here's hoping mcvay can spark the offense and give the d a chance. i think that's when donald's true worth will come to the fore.

The NFL is not a value for money business. Bradford didn't give back any money to the Rams who didn't get the value for the money they gave him. The Rams got a good deal so far but, that is because of the CBA. The Rams give him the top dollar deal now they take on the high risk if he gets hurt. I would go with a shared risk with less than top dollar deal right now.

donald has been carrying all the risk for 3 years now. i think it's time the rams took on the risk as donald has shown he deserves it and is not the type of player that will put his feet up once he gets paid. plus with goff on cheap money for the next 3 years the rams should pay donald now and lighten the load once goff is up for an extension. and here's hoping goff earns the right to an extension.

.