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How Rams' chances changed in final minute vs. 49ers
By Nick Wagoner
http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-ra...rams-chances-changed-in-final-minute-vs-49ers
EARTH CITY, Mo. -- The roller-coaster that was the final minute of the St. Louis Rams' 13-10 win against the San Francisco 49ers almost certainly wrought an immeasurable number of heart palpitations between the teams' players, coaches and fans alike.
In a game the Rams nearly put away on their final drive before quarterback Austin Davis was unable to hit wide open tight end Lance Kendricks on third and 1, the Rams' chances of pulling off the win dwindled with each play even though they clung to a three-point lead.
On that third-down play, many wondered why the Rams eschewed the run to throw given Davis' struggles and the fact that the Rams had just picked up 9 yards on the ground the previous two plays. Coach Jeff Fisher said there was too much time left to not be aggressive in the situation.
“There was 3:30 left and they had two timeouts left and the two-minute warning and I needed a first down," Fisher said. "That’s a good defense. I’d do it again. Lance was wide open. Austin couldn’t see him. Complete the pass, we kneel on it. The game is over. So, I was trying to win the game.”
Unfortunately for the Rams, the call was a good one but the execution was not, which gave the Niners a chance to win it in the final minute. In that time, very little went right.
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info, here's how the 49ers win probability changed from play to play in the game's final minute with the probability in parenthesis indicating what it was before the snap.
0:56 - 2nd & 5 on STL 30 (47 percent)
Colin Kaepernick incomplete pass to Stevie Johnson
0:51 - 3rd & 5 on STL 30 (40 percent)
Defensive Pass Interference on Trumaine Johnson
0:46 - 1st & Goal on STL 5 (70 percent)
Defensive Holding on Trumaine Johnson
0:42 - 1st & Goal on STL 2 (76 percent)
Kaepernick 1-yard pass to Michael Crabtree
0:14 - 2nd & Goal on STL 1 (75 percent)
Kaepernick incomplete pass to Frank Gore
0:09 - 3rd & Goal on STL 1 (64 percent)
Kaepernick loses a fumble
As you can see, even while trailing, the Niners were solid favorites to win from the moment they had first and goal at the Rams' 5 with the number peaking after they got another first down on a defensive holding at the Rams' 2.
But of course, a win probability is far from a certainty even when the numbers tip in one direction. Of all the possible outcomes that could have happened to the Rams in the final seconds, they got the one that was probably the least likely but clearly the one they wanted most.
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By Nick Wagoner
http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-ra...rams-chances-changed-in-final-minute-vs-49ers
EARTH CITY, Mo. -- The roller-coaster that was the final minute of the St. Louis Rams' 13-10 win against the San Francisco 49ers almost certainly wrought an immeasurable number of heart palpitations between the teams' players, coaches and fans alike.
In a game the Rams nearly put away on their final drive before quarterback Austin Davis was unable to hit wide open tight end Lance Kendricks on third and 1, the Rams' chances of pulling off the win dwindled with each play even though they clung to a three-point lead.
On that third-down play, many wondered why the Rams eschewed the run to throw given Davis' struggles and the fact that the Rams had just picked up 9 yards on the ground the previous two plays. Coach Jeff Fisher said there was too much time left to not be aggressive in the situation.
“There was 3:30 left and they had two timeouts left and the two-minute warning and I needed a first down," Fisher said. "That’s a good defense. I’d do it again. Lance was wide open. Austin couldn’t see him. Complete the pass, we kneel on it. The game is over. So, I was trying to win the game.”
Unfortunately for the Rams, the call was a good one but the execution was not, which gave the Niners a chance to win it in the final minute. In that time, very little went right.
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info, here's how the 49ers win probability changed from play to play in the game's final minute with the probability in parenthesis indicating what it was before the snap.
0:56 - 2nd & 5 on STL 30 (47 percent)
Colin Kaepernick incomplete pass to Stevie Johnson
0:51 - 3rd & 5 on STL 30 (40 percent)
Defensive Pass Interference on Trumaine Johnson
0:46 - 1st & Goal on STL 5 (70 percent)
Defensive Holding on Trumaine Johnson
0:42 - 1st & Goal on STL 2 (76 percent)
Kaepernick 1-yard pass to Michael Crabtree
0:14 - 2nd & Goal on STL 1 (75 percent)
Kaepernick incomplete pass to Frank Gore
0:09 - 3rd & Goal on STL 1 (64 percent)
Kaepernick loses a fumble
As you can see, even while trailing, the Niners were solid favorites to win from the moment they had first and goal at the Rams' 5 with the number peaking after they got another first down on a defensive holding at the Rams' 2.
But of course, a win probability is far from a certainty even when the numbers tip in one direction. Of all the possible outcomes that could have happened to the Rams in the final seconds, they got the one that was probably the least likely but clearly the one they wanted most.
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