How NFL teams finished compared to predictions of sportsbooks

[Prime Time]

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/29/nfl-2014-season-final-records-compared-to-vegas-pundit-predictions/

The Final Over/Under
A college stats professor charts NFL win totals for all 32 teams, comparing them to the Vegas and statheads predictions going into the 2014 season

Graphics created by StatsbyLopez.com

Mike Lopez, an assistant professor of statistics at Skidmore College and the brains behind StatsbyLopez.com, has put together the above infographic showing how NFL teams finished the 2014 regular season in relation to the predictions of sportsbooks and statheads.

The visual is pretty much self-explanatory: The Bucs, Titans, Bears and Saints were among the biggest underachievers, while the Cowboys, Cardinals and Lions were the biggest surprises to oddsmakers and pundits.

The statheads category is composed of five of the most popular entities that make NFL predictions: Team Rankings, Accuscore, FiveThirtyEight, Prediction Machine and Football Outsiders. A full explanation of Lopez’s methodology and findings can be found on his website, but if you’re looking for advice next season, Team Rankings has outperformed Vegas in each of the past two seasons.

 

[Stranger]

Interesting that the biggest "positive" outlier on the graph is the same team who had the head of officiating photograph'd getting off their party bus in the off-season.

 

[HE WITH HORNS]

Interesting that the biggest "positive" outlier on the graph is the same team who had the head of officiating photograph'd getting off their party bus in the off-season.

Conspiracy Theorist!

 

[Stranger]

Conspiracy Theorist!

Indepdent thinking

 

[Ramrasta]

It's stupid to underestimate New England I've come to find out. They are the exception of "what goes up must come down" for the last decade or more.

 

[LesBaker]

Injuries played a really big role, as usual, with teams that underachieved.

 

[DaveFan'51]

It's stupid to underestimate New England I've come to find out. They are the exception of "what goes up must come down" for the last decade or more.

Not when you look at their Division Opponents!