How good is Russell Wilson?

[Rynie]

Look at the supporting cast Romo has had. Dez, Witten, Murray....and what is widely regarded as the best OL in football. He BETTER produce in that environment. I think Romo is a good QB, but I have no idea how he found his way into THIS conversation.....

Romo was putting up great numbers long before Dez and Murray when we had a terrible offensive line (got his collarbone broken). What he never had was a defense.

 

[-X-]

Romo was putting up great numbers long before Dez and Murray when we had a terrible offensive line (got his collarbone broken). What he never had was a defense.

Maybe you didn't get the memo. I was sure it was circulated to all 32 teams.

The QB is responsible for all wins and losses.
- Joe Fan

 

[jrry32]

I disagree with you on both accounts. My top 6 is:
1. Rodgers
2. Manning
3. Brady
4. Brees
5. Roethlisberger
6. Luck

Don't really see how Wilson has much of an argument to be over any of those 6 QBs.

Only if Bevel comes with him.
Alone? I dunno. We don't run that kind of read-option offense.

Dear Jesus, yes. God yes. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

I'd take Russell Wilson in a second on this team.

He doesn't need Bevel or the read-option to be effective.

I'll put it this way: Romo > Wilson (by far)

No. Bad Rynie BAD! Romo is a top 10 QB but he's not by far better than Wilson. It's arguable at best.

 

[Selassie I]

 

[RamFan503]

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Fuck Wilson and his shitty ass team. He's on the shecocks so he sucks ass.

 

[Dodgersrf]

Um.... Wait for it.....
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freak Wilson and his crappy ass team. He's on the shecocks so he sucks ass.

Finally, a rational post.
Where the heck were you 4 pages ago?

 

[Legatron4]

Um.... Wait for it.....
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freak Wilson and his crappy ass team. He's on the shecocks so he sucks ass.

Do we need to go over the rules again? One more post like that and you're gone. Wait...which thread is this again?

 

[Legatron4]

Stole this from someone else

Myth 1: Wilson's stats are underwhelming

He's #3 in the league, behind only Rodgers and Manning, in AY/A since he came into the league, the QB stat most predictive of team wins.

He needs 248 attempts to qualify for career passer rating records, and if he does nothing but maintain his rating, he'd be #2 all time, again behind Rodgers.

And this is with a ton of turnover in his receiving targets (Miller -- injured for 2014; Rice -- injured for a good portion of 2013, then retired; Harvin -- injured for 2013, you know the rest; Taint -- left in FA after 2013; McCoy -- injured in 2013 and 2014). Not to mention Seattle's o-line struggles.

Myth 2: Wilson isn't asked to do much

Wilson passed for 3475 yards and rushed for 849. Seattle had 6012 total yards. Wilson accounted for 72% of Seattle's yards (31% of their rushing yards). How does that compare to other QBs?

Wilson 72%
Manning 73%
Brady 71%
Rodgers 75%

Another common sentiment is that Wilson's numbers are inflated because he's playing ahead so often. How does he compare to some other QBs? Percentage of pass attempts made while trailing in the game (calculated from "splits" page on PFR):

Wilson: 34%
Rodgers: 34%
Brady: 34%
Manning: 41%

Pretty similar to other QBs who have been on good teams consistently.

He's also led 15 game winning drives in 3 years. Compared to other young QBs:

Wilson 15
Luck 12
Kaep 8
Newton 8
Tannehill 5
Foles 5

(yes, this stat is imperfect, but Wilson has played a big part in a lot of impressive late game situations. Good examples are in 2012 against NE/CHI/ATL or the overtime drives in 2014 against DEN/GB).

Myth 3: Seattle's offense is carried solely by Lynch, not Wilson

Is Lynch a vital part of Seattle's offense? Of course. But here's Seattle's offensive DVOA during the Carroll/Lynch era:

2010: #29
2011: #22

[Wilson is drafted]

2012: #4
2013: #7
2014: #5

Here's Lynch's yards per carry with Seattle:

2010: 3.5
2011: 4.2

[Wilson is drafted]

2012: 5.0
2013: 4.2
2014: 4.7

Lynch benefits from the threat Wilson poses on the read option, just like Wilson benefits from Lynch.

Myth 4: Seattle's offense is carried by their defense

Seattle's defense is great, but the offense has quietly been good-to-great for the last three years, too (as shown above, in the 4-7 range in DVOA).

The difference between Seattle and the median team (NYJ) in average starting field position is 2.5 yards, so they aren't put in substantially better field position by the defense. Just like Wilson+Lynch, Seattle's offense+defenseis a symbiotic relationship. Seattle's offense was #1 in fewest turnovers per drive (not placing the defense in hard positions) and #3 in time of possession per drive (giving the defense time to rest). Due to Seattle's lack of turnovers, Seattle's opponents started with the worst field position in the NFL (Jon Ryan gets some credit here, too).

And there's zero relationship between a team's defensive and offensive performance, anyway.

Myth 5: Wilson's scrambling makes him susceptible to injury

In 2014, Wilson was only tackled on 1/3 of his runs. On the remainder, he ran out of bounds untouched or slid. He ran 109 times (not counting kneel downs), meaning that he was tackled an extra 2 times per game from scrambling. For someone who is built very similarly to Marshawn Lynch (they are the same height and Lynch is 10 lbs heavier), that's not a lot of hits.

 

[FrantikRam]

Looking at stats, Wilson looks great. But IMO, it's the system and the players on that team that make him look a bit better than he actually is.

There is a relationship between a team's offense and defense - a better defense gets the offense more opportunities with the football, because they are not staying on the field for 10+ play drives. That's a BIG relationship.

Also, his defense not letting him play from behind very much - again, a pretty big advantage. He's top 10 if you include his rushing ability - but that isn't likely to last. Not because he'll get hurt, but because teams have had a lot of time now to look at their offense from last year, and him running the ball was a huge part of it.

He holds the ball way too long, makes bad decisions when facing a good defense, and does not read defenses well.

On the flip side, he has a great deep ball and is clutch....except for that last throw of the superbowl.

It's too hard to judge QBs against one another using stats, because they all play in different schemes with different coaches and different players. But I look at it like this: you are building a team and your first pick HAS to be a QB. You have nobody else on the team, this is only for one year, and the QB will account for 15% of your cap (close to a QB mega contract these days). With this information, in what order would you rank the QBs. Here's mine:

Brady
Rodgers
P. Manning
Brees
Berger
Luck
Rivers
Romo
Ryan
E. Manning
Flacco
Newton
Stafford
Wilson

So by this logic, for me, Wilson is the 14th best QB in the NFL. I choose the other guys ahead of him because I believe that with the Seahawks roster, they would all be able to do what Wilson does.

 

[nighttrain]

With Wilson's current abilities, an injury to a knee would make him a 2nd string QB
train

 

[nighttrain]

I have no idea what our scheme is at this point.
I hear it's gonna be good and easy and productive and super successful.
But I don't know what it is.

Has to better than Shotty's, just to has to
train

 

[Zaphod]

Stole this from someone else

Myth 1: Wilson's stats are underwhelming

He's #3 in the league, behind only Rodgers and Manning, in AY/A since he came into the league, the QB stat most predictive of team wins.

He needs 248 attempts to qualify for career passer rating records, and if he does nothing but maintain his rating, he'd be #2 all time, again behind Rodgers.

And this is with a ton of turnover in his receiving targets (Miller -- injured for 2014; Rice -- injured for a good portion of 2013, then retired; Harvin -- injured for 2013, you know the rest; Taint -- left in FA after 2013; McCoy -- injured in 2013 and 2014). Not to mention Seattle's o-line struggles.

Myth 2: Wilson isn't asked to do much

Wilson passed for 3475 yards and rushed for 849. Seattle had 6012 total yards. Wilson accounted for 72% of Seattle's yards (31% of their rushing yards). How does that compare to other QBs?

Wilson 72%
Manning 73%
Brady 71%
Rodgers 75%

Another common sentiment is that Wilson's numbers are inflated because he's playing ahead so often. How does he compare to some other QBs? Percentage of pass attempts made while trailing in the game (calculated from "splits" page on PFR):

Wilson: 34%
Rodgers: 34%
Brady: 34%
Manning: 41%

Pretty similar to other QBs who have been on good teams consistently.

He's also led 15 game winning drives in 3 years. Compared to other young QBs:

Wilson 15
Luck 12
Kaep 8
Newton 8
Tannehill 5
Foles 5

(yes, this stat is imperfect, but Wilson has played a big part in a lot of impressive late game situations. Good examples are in 2012 against NE/CHI/ATL or the overtime drives in 2014 against DEN/GB).

Myth 3: Seattle's offense is carried solely by Lynch, not Wilson

Is Lynch a vital part of Seattle's offense? Of course. But here's Seattle's offensive DVOA during the Carroll/Lynch era:

2010: #29
2011: #22

[Wilson is drafted]

2012: #4
2013: #7
2014: #5

Here's Lynch's yards per carry with Seattle:

2010: 3.5
2011: 4.2

[Wilson is drafted]

2012: 5.0
2013: 4.2
2014: 4.7

Lynch benefits from the threat Wilson poses on the read option, just like Wilson benefits from Lynch.

Myth 4: Seattle's offense is carried by their defense

Seattle's defense is great, but the offense has quietly been good-to-great for the last three years, too (as shown above, in the 4-7 range in DVOA).

The difference between Seattle and the median team (NYJ) in average starting field position is 2.5 yards, so they aren't put in substantially better field position by the defense. Just like Wilson+Lynch, Seattle's offense+defenseis a symbiotic relationship. Seattle's offense was #1 in fewest turnovers per drive (not placing the defense in hard positions) and #3 in time of possession per drive (giving the defense time to rest). Due to Seattle's lack of turnovers, Seattle's opponents started with the worst field position in the NFL (Jon Ryan gets some credit here, too).

And there's zero relationship between a team's defensive and offensive performance, anyway.

Myth 5: Wilson's scrambling makes him susceptible to injury

In 2014, Wilson was only tackled on 1/3 of his runs. On the remainder, he ran out of bounds untouched or slid. He ran 109 times (not counting kneel downs), meaning that he was tackled an extra 2 times per game from scrambling. For someone who is built very similarly to Marshawn Lynch (they are the same height and Lynch is 10 lbs heavier), that's not a lot of hits.

I like your mythological study and agree that Seattle should definitely pay the man like a #3 quarterback!