How Doug Baldwin's contract extension could impact Tavon Austin

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KNUCKLEHEAD

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http://theramswire.usatoday.com/201...contract-extension-could-impact-tavon-Austin/

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By Blaine Grisak June 29, 2016 11:15 am ET


The Seattle Seahawks solidified their wide receiving corps on Tuesday by extending Doug Baldwin to a four year deal. According to ESPN, the deal is worth $46 million with $24 million guaranteed. That puts Baldwin’s value at just over $11 million per year.

While Baldwin has averaged 79.75 yards per game and scored two touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams the last two years, this deal may impact the team more than just on the football field.

It isn’t an immediate situation to address on the agenda, but at some point in the next two years, general manager Les Snead is going to have to extend Tavon Austin. That is, if he wants to keep the former No. 8 overall pick on the roster.

Given that a wide receiver like Baldwin, who isn’t necessarily seen as an elite wide out, will be the seventh highest paid receiver in the NFL, the Rams may have to break the bank for Austin.

Baldwin has just six 100-yard games in five seasons with the Seahawks. To put that in comparison, all six guys getting paid more on average than him have had at least that many over the past two seasons. On top of that, Baldwin just broke 1,000 yards for the first time in his career in 2015.

This doesn’t bode well for the Rams. Even though Austin has yet to break 500 yards receiving in a single season and just recently topped the 50 reception mark last year, this deal is eye-opening for both Austin and the Rams. With Baldwin getting paid $11 million-plus, there’s no question that could wind up being a number that Austin will look to at least match.

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That seems crazy on the surface, as Austin and Baldwin are two completely different wide receivers. Is the Rams receiver really worth more than $11 million per year? While Austin is a guy who can score from all over the field (rushing, receiving and returning), he broke the 1,000 total yard mark for just the first time last season.

Even with that being said, the Rams seem to think he is worth that much, as they will be paying him more than $12 million in 2017 after picking up his fifth-year option back in May. Fans may be disgusted with that number, as the $7-$8 million per year range would be a little easier to swallow.


What's a realistic statistical expectation for Tavon Austin in 2016?

However, looking at smaller slot receivers who do similar things to Austin, Percy Harvin signed a deal worth almost $11 million a year in Seattle in 2013, and Randall Cobb signed a $10 million a year deal in 2015.

Both of those receivers had over 3,900 total yards in their careers at that point. Right now, Austin has just over 2,800 and if he puts up 1,100 total yards this season, he will be very comparable to Cobb and Harvin in that aspect.

While Doug Baldwin may not be an elite receiver, he certainly set the new market for the next wave of receivers in the NFL. The Seahawks paid up, which will mean Austin is likely going to be looking for at least that when he is eligible to sign an extension next season.
 

OldSchool

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Honestly if Tavon asks for anywhere near that money I'm wishing him the best of luck on his next team and hoping we don't play them often.
 

CGI_Ram

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Honestly if Tavon asks for anywhere near that money I'm wishing him the best of luck on his next team and hoping we don't play them often.

Well; get ready for it.

They already picked up his 5yr option for $12.268MM in 2017.

His extension will be up there close to those other contract numbers.
 

Legatron4

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Honestly if Tavon asks for anywhere near that money I'm wishing him the best of luck on his next team and hoping we don't play them often.
If he puts up 1200 yards receiving and 600 yards rushing along with 15 total touchdowns this year will it change your mind?
 

Loyal

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Boy, talk about putting the cart before the horse...Nothing remains static, as we have a new QB that was the #1 pick over all and other options at WR that are competing this year. We have Todd Gurley. Tavon Austin may get 100 receptions, per Jeff Fisher, and if so what does that do to his depressed stats? I describe them as depressed, because we have had a God aweful Offensive coaching and less than starting calibre QB talent until this year. I HOPE we have to worry about paying Austin way more because his production has almost doubled, which will be a good problem to have.
 

KNUCKLEHEAD

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http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-sea...reflect-favorably-on-seahawks-wr-doug-baldwin

Efficiency a major reason why the Seahawks decided to pay Doug Baldwin


Sheil KapadiaESPN Writer

Before 2015, Doug Baldwin had never reached the 1,000-yard mark in a season or scored more than five touchdowns.

But on Tuesday, the fiery Seattle Seahawks wide receiver signed a four-year, $46 million contract extension with $24 million guaranteed.

There are several reasons why the team decided to pay up instead of having Baldwin play out the final year of his previous contract. Number one, they believe in him as a core member of their program. Baldwin joined the team as an undrafted free agent in 2011, earned a larger role, worked at his craft and had a career season in 2015. Those are the types of players that good organizations reward and hold on to.

In terms of Baldwin's contributions to the offense, clearly John Schneider and Pete Carroll feel like 2015 was the start of a trend, not an aberration. The Seahawks had the most efficient offense in the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, and the passing game was second. Russell Wilson led the league in passer rating, and in the second half of the season, the offense averaged 31.25 points per game (second).

Football Outsiders recently released its receiving plus-minus rankings. Here is the definition:

Receiving plus-minus examines how many catches a receiver caught compared to what an average receiver would have caught, given the location of those targets. It does not consider targets listed as "Thrown Away," "Tipped at Line," or "Quarterback Hit in Motion." Player performance is compared to a historical baseline of how often a pass is completed based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether it is on the left, middle, or right side of the field. Note that plus-minus is not scaled to a player's target total.

Baldwin ranked third in this metric, behind only Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald. A.J. Green and Julio Jones completed the top five.

Wilson and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell also deserve a tip of the cap here. Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in receiver plus-minus. The numbers speak to the efficiency of the Seahawks' passing game in 2015.

Another area where Baldwin stacked up favorably was YAC+. This is defined as "how much YAC (yards after catch} a receiver gained compared to what we would have expected from an average receiver catching passes of similar length in similar down-and-distance situations."

Baldwin ranked tied for ninth in YAC+. According to Football Outsiders, he was the only wide receiver in the NFL to rank in the top 10 in both receiver plus-minus and YAC+.

The bottom line is that Baldwin has put in the work to get better, and the numbers suggest he did more with his opportunities than most of his peers last season. He will likely never be among the league leaders in targets, but when Wilson goes to Baldwin, he knows that the wide receiver is going to produce.

Efficiency and dependability are two of the main reasons why the Seahawks felt comfortable paying up to keep Baldwin in Seattle through 2020.
 

OldSchool

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If he puts up 1200 yards receiving and 600 yards rushing along with 15 total touchdowns this year will it change your mind?
Maybe possibly, but I'm not going to be holding my breath for him to produce that.
 

Dodgersrf

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I think Baldwin's an underrated WR.
I would love to have him on our squad.
 

LACHAMP46

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Not sure if Baldwin is comparable...It's hard to compare any of the Rams receivers to the norm.....
Until the QB play becomes...average at best, we don't know what ANY of them can do, or for that matter, their real worth.

That said, if Tavon stays where he is, or increases like he has, I'd try a 5 year deal, $45- $50 mill....
 

DaveFan'51

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Not sure if Baldwin is comparable...It's hard to compare any of the Rams receivers to the norm.....
Until the QB play becomes...average at best, we don't know what ANY of them can do, or for that matter, their real worth.

That said, if Tavon stays where he is, or increases like he has, I'd try a 5 year deal, $45- $50 mill....
It will probably be more like 55-60 Mil!
 

OldSchool

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It will probably be more like 55-60 Mil!
Either is way too much imo. He's a nice WR but not worth that kind of money. $12 million annual average would put him #7 in the NFL. I like Tavon as much as the next Rams fan but no way in the lower 40 freezing over is he worth being paid like a top 10 WR let alone top 7. For reference $11 million annually is what Larry Fitzgerald makes at #10 on the list.
 

leoram

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Thus...Pharoah Cooper. If Tavon breaks the bank, we may already have his replacement. Granted, while we all want to keep both, at least Snisher hedged their bets
 

RamFan503

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Meh. He will make what he makes. This regime seems to have their price figured out ahead of time. I'll leave it up to KD to work out the details to keep us in line with the cap. I may be pissed if we let another London Fletcher or Jerome Bettis deal happen but other than that, I just hope they earn their keep and we can hold onto those that will keep us challenging for Superbowls. If that means over paying a few in the fans' eyes - so be it.