Hall of Fame look ahead: Kurt Warner/Wagoner

[RamBill]

Hall of Fame look ahead: Kurt Warner
By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/15971/hall-of-fame-look-ahead-kurt-warner-2

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- The 2015 Pro Football Hall of Fame class was announced Saturday night. To the surprise of many, none of the players who spent the majority of their careers with the Los Angeles St. Louis Rams made it in.

Sure, running back Jerome Bettis qualified but he was not long for the team that drafted him and played his defining years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. But former Rams legends such as Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner and Kevin Greene came up short, and receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce didn't even make the list of finalists.

With that in mind, it's never too early to begin looking at how things might shake out in 2016. Warner made the cut to 10 in 2015 and clearly isn't far off, but he'll still need support to break through in 2016.

Why he missed: Warner wasn't far from making it on the first try in 2015 as he did survive the cut from 15 to 10 but didn't quite make it from there. Those close to the voting process said Warner was close but Pace was closer. Despite Warner's amazing story, some voters still see a hole in his career between his time leading the Rams to two Super Bowls and taking Arizona to one. That doesn't mean he's not viewed as a Hall of Famer, clearly he is based on the fact that he got so close this year, but it seems voters didn't view him as a first-ballot type. Junior Seau was the only first-time nominee to make it in this class.

Why he should go: Warner is one of only three quarterbacks in league history to start a Super Bowl for two teams. In Warner's case, that's the Rams and the Arizona Cardinals, two moribund franchises when he took over and world champion contenders by the time he left. What Warner did in those Super Bowls also makes him a viable Hall of Fame contender. He also holds the three most productive passing days in Super Bowl history, in terms of yards, with 414 against the Tennessee Titans, 377 against the Pittsburgh Steelers (as the Arizona Cardinals' QB) and 365 against the New England Patriots. In 13 postseason games, Warner posted 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for a passer rating of 102.8, and his completion percentage (66.5) and yards per attempt (8.55) stand as the highest in postseason history, among qualified passers.

How it looks in 2016: Under normal circumstances, one would think that Warner would be a cinch to make it next year or at least have his chances improve. Instead, I would venture to guess that Warner's chances for election next year will be worse than this year. Why? Because of the addition of Brett Favre to the ballot in 2016. Favre is a sure-fire lock to make it in his first try and voters have demonstrated again and again that they don't like to have more than one player from the same position in a year unless it's a special circumstance. That isn't to say Warner has no chance next year, anything could happen, but it also seems likely he'll have to wait another year as Favre takes center stage for the quarterbacks.

 

[kurtfaulk]

.

wow.

31 tds, 14 ints, 66.5%, 8.55 ypa.

kurt made it look easy in the post season.

not quite sure how this didn't translate to a 1st ballot selection. but like everything else in his career nothing came easy for kurt, he had to get out there and get it.

start schmoozing kurt.

.

 

[Blue and Gold]

repost:

The voters had a good ballot of people and I thought Warner would make it, but the donut hole was a real thing. Kurt had 44 great games from 1999 to 2001 with 2 MVPs and so on. Then for the middle 1/3 of his career 36 games he was 8-23 with more picks that TDs and got sacks at a rate of 9% of his dropbacks. The the final 1/3 (2007-2009) he rose like a phoenix (!) and for those 45 games he had a winning record and a passer rating of 93 and got Cards to Super Bowl.

So, the hole was not just a couple of years, it was 5 years and 36 games. And I think that's what cost him first-ballot.

So, for Kurt:
Act I (44 games) = MVP level
Act II (36 games) = Backup level
Act III (45 games) = Pro Bowl level.

He will make it in 2016, with Favre and Pace.

 

[thirteen28]

I am so sick and damned tired of the whole "donut hole" thing being used against Kurt.

If you look at Kurt's career trajectory against Troy Aikman's they are virtually opposits of one another. After a rough start, Aikman had about 5 years where he was really on top of his game (and on a team that was loaded on both sides of the ball). After the 3rd Cowboys Super Bowl of the 90's, Aikman steadily declined until the end. So overally, he only had about 5 really good years and 7 mediocre ones.

Warner started his career with three incredible years that were statistically better than anything Aikman put up. He had 2.5 more of the same at the end of his career. Along the way, he took his teams to 3 Super Bowls, just as Aikman did. While he only got one win, there are a couple of mitigating factors. One being that he did it for two franchises that hadn't had much Super Bowl success, and in fact the Cardinals had never even been there. In all three of those games, his teams had a late possesion where he drove them into a position to tie or win the game - only to have his defense let him down twice.

Aikman was a first ballot selection in no small part because he played for the Cowboys. But if I was starting a team from scratch and could choose between the Aikman at his prime between 1992-1996 and the Warner of 1999-2001 and later 2007-2010, I'd take Kurt in a heartbeat.

FU hall voters that used the donut hole BS (or whatever reasoning) to deny Kurt his rightful place in Canton. May the underwear of each of you become infested with the fleas of 1000 camels.

 

[Blue and Gold]

I am so sick and damned tired of the whole "donut hole" thing being used against Kurt.

If you look at Kurt's career trajectory against Troy Aikman's they are virtually opposits of one another. After a rough start, Aikman had about 5 years where he was really on top of his game (and on a team that was loaded on both sides of the ball). After the 3rd Cowboys Super Bowl of the 90's, Aikman steadily declined until the end. So overally, he only had about 5 really good years and 7 mediocre ones.

Warner started his career with three incredible years that were statistically better than anything Aikman put up. He had 2.5 more of the same at the end of his career. Along the way, he took his teams to 3 Super Bowls, just as Aikman did. While he only got one win, there are a couple of mitigating factors. One being that he did it for two franchises that hadn't had much Super Bowl success, and in fact the Cardinals had never even been there. In all three of those games, his teams had a late possesion where he drove them into a position to tie or win the game - only to have his defense let him down twice.

Aikman was a first ballot selection in no small part because he played for the Cowboys. But if I was starting a team from scratch and could choose between the Aikman at his prime between 1992-1996 and the Warner of 1999-2001 and later 2007-2010, I'd take Kurt in a heartbeat.

FU hall voters that used the donut hole BS (or whatever reasoning) to deny Kurt his rightful place in Canton. May the underwear of each of you become infested with the fleas of 1000 camels.

I appreciate your passion and make good points . . . of course there is a difference, though, Troy won his 3 Super Bowls, Kurt lost 2. Not saying it was Kurts fault . . just saying Aikman was a 3-time winner and that makes a difference.

But, I too, wanted Kurt in right away, but when I try and be objective, not a Rams homer . . . I can see their point. Not that I agree, but I see it. Had the defense held out versus Pats (Lovie's D) and the Cards . . . it woild have been different. Then again, if Kurt had not have thrown a pick six in both games, they would have had better chance at winning both.

 

[Blue and Gold]

Posted by Clark Judge on February 5, 2015 at 12:01 am

Here comes the Class of 2016


(Photos by Green Bay Packers/Jim Biever and Carolina Panthers)
By Clark Judge

Talk of Fame Network

Now that we’re set with the Class of 2015 for Pro Football’s Hall of Fame, let’s start looking ahead — and I’m not talking about the inductions. Nope, I mean let’s look a year ahead to handicap the Class of 2016. And let’s start at the top.

There was one slam-dunk this year, and linebacker Junior Seau was chosen after little debate. Little should change there in 2016 when another candidate is a dead-bolt cinch, and no discussion will be required.

Brett Favre, come on down.

Favre will be the first quarterback elected as a first-ballot choice since Dan Marino and Steve Young went in together in 2005 … and that’s not exactly an educated guess. It’s a guarantee. You don’t have to be an Einstein to figure Favre gains the approval of most … if not all … of the 46 selectors.

He won big games. He threw a zillion touchdown passes. He won a Super Bowl. He was a league MVP. Three times, no less. And when he retired, he held a passel of records that either were or are now under siege by Peyton Manning.

So make Favre one of your five modern-era choices.

But then what? Well, then you have to recognize what the Hall’s board has done the past few years … namely, respect the queue. It’s been receptive to Hall-of-Fame worthy candidates stuck at the doors of Canton but who were eclipsed by others who jumped the line with better numbers … or qualifications … or both.

That’s why linebacker Kevin Greene is an early favorite. Greene has been waiting 11 years and is a four-time finalist. He had a shot to cross the finish line last weekend but lost out when six-time finalist Charles Haley — also eligible 11 years — got the call. Haley was one of four candidates with anywhere from four to six years as a finalist, and their inductions cleared the paths for others waiting behind.

Of that group, Kevin Greene is the most eligible. He has 160 sacks, third most of all time. Only Bruce Smith and Reggie White have more. They’re in the Hall. Greene is not. He has 60 more sacks than Haley, too. But Haley’s in the Hall, and Kevin Greene is not.

That should change within a year.

Wide receiver Marvin Harrison moves to the front of the class, too. He thought he should’ve been chosen as a first-time finalist a year ago. He wasn’t. Andre Reed was, with selectors choosing an eight-time finalist. He thought he would be called last weekend, too, but he wasn’t. Tim Brown was, and for all the right reasons. He not only had numbers either equal or comparable to Harrison’s; he was an all-conference punt returner and kick returner.

Harrison was not. But, patience, Marvin. You’re in perfect position to move forward.

Then there’s tackle Orlando Pace, and you have to like his chances, too. This was his first year on the ballot, and some thought he was a lock. One problem: He wasn’t the most qualified offensive lineman in this year’s class. Guard Will Shields was. And so he made it … in his fourth year as a finalist.

Had Pace been chosen, he would’ve become the fourth left tackle to reach Canton in four years — with Willie Roaf, Jonathan Ogden and Walter Jones preceding him. But he didn’t. He should make it on his second.

That’s four of the five places reserved for modern-era candidates, with the fifth wide open. I’d start by eliminating quarterback Kurt Warner, and not because he’s not qualified. He is. But with Favre going in, Warner probably waits another year.

That might leave an opening for former coach Tony Dungy, who could be the front runner for this spot. He didn’t make the cut to 10 in his first try a year ago, but he did last weekend. That tells you something, and what it tells you is that support for Dungy is growing within the room. That’s not only significant. It’s encouraging for Dungy.

Yeah, I know, wide receiver Terrell Owens and guard Alan Faneca are first-time candidates in 2016, but let’s be honest: I don’t know that Faneca makes the cut to 15, and Owens’ candidacy is punctuated by as much controversy as big numbers. Owens will be a hot topic for discussion, but, in the end, he probably doesn’t make the final five in 2016.

A surprise candidate, however, might.
http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/whom-to-watch-in-halls-class-of-2016/

 

[Blue and Gold]

Bernie: Why Warner, Pace didn't make it
• By Bernie Miklasz

www.stltoday.com

Last Saturday, I participated in the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection meeting that lasted 8 hours and 50 minutes. After a long day of discussion and debate, we chose five modern-day candidates from the list of 15 candidates.

Congratulations to RB Jerome Bettis, WR Tim Brown, DE Charles Haley, G Will Shields and the late MLB Junior Seau.

They'll be joined in the Hall of Fame Class of 2015 by "Contributors" Ron Wolf and Bill Polian and Senior Committee nominee Mick Tinglehoff — the remarkably enduring center for the Minnesota Vikings. (I am a member of the committee that put Tinglehoff up for a vote of the overall body of selectors.)

The Contributors and the Senior nominee are voted on separately, apart from the Modern Era candidates.

Two former Rams were among the 15 finalists: OT Orlando Pace and QB Kurt Warner. Both made the cutdown from 15 to 10 but were eliminated in the subsequent reduction from 10 to 5.

So why did Pace and Warner get left out this time?

First of all, they had plenty of support. Enthusiastic support. And in my opinion both will be elected to the Hall of Fame soon. I think there's a great chance of Pace making it next year. I'm not so sure about Warner in 2016, but only because former Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre appears on the ballot for the first time in '16.

But there are reasons why Pace and Warner came up a little short in their first years on the ballot.

1. There was a sentiment in the room — with individual voters speaking out — to push worthy candidates that had been waiting for several years. Haley and Brown were six-time finalists; Betts was a five-time finalist; Shields was a four-time finalist. There wasn't a question of whether they'd make the Hall of Fame. It was just a matter of time. And with so much parity among the final group of 15 players, it made sense to give the nod to players that had barely missed out in previous votes.

Pace and Warner were close, but Seau was the only absolute, no-doubt first-ballot guy on this list. Pace and Warner will have to wait a little while, and there's no crime in that.

The problem? Too many people in the media (and also fans) carelessly tab too many candidates as "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers" and distort the actual reality.

With so many players absurdly touted as "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers" fans are stunned and upset when it doesn't happen. The expectations are way off base and create a misguided sense of entitlement.

Listen, to accommodate every "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer" as touted by hot-take nation, we'd have to put in 10 or 15 guys a year to make it come true. Remember: there are only FIVE spots each year.

And why does it matter if you make it in the first year, second year, third year, or seventh year? A Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer. They all receive the same gold jacket and an equal acclaim. It's not as if "first ballot" selections are enshrined in a special place, or given special status as a Hall of Famer.

It's like the NFL Draft; it's nice to be a first-round pick, but all that matters is making the team. And to that end, it doesn't matter where you were drafted. Or not drafted. (Ask Malcolm Butler about that.) Once you're chosen to the Hall of Fame, you're a member of the team ... forever.

If all else is equal, I support the pragmatic approach of giving extra consideration to players that have waited longer than others for a spot in Canton. In past years, we've had a few positions clogged up with excellent players who canceled each other out by splitting votes.

That was especially true of the wide receiver position. Art Monk and Andre Reed didn't make it until their 8th time as a finalists, Brown didn't get in until his 6th year as a finalist, and Michael Irvin was a three-time finalist before getting the necessary votes.

In 2008 and 2009, Reed and Carter split votes.

Carter, Reed and Brown each were finalists in 2010, 2011 and 2012 but canceled each other out, so none made it through.

What was the point of continuing down this track?

We couldn't continue to ignore wide receivers and shut them out because of our indecisiveness. We couldn't continue to leave the 15-man ballot cluttered with wide receivers, which also blocks future wide receivers who deserve consideration.

WRs such as the Rams' Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, who didn't make it to the final 15 this time. With Brown and Harrison sure things to make it back to the final 15 this year, people simply weren't going to put four wide receivers in the 15 available slots. So Bruce and Holt were got squeezed in the traffic jam.

In an imperfect system, the best way to go about this is to consolidate support behind one candidate at a position in a given year, and begin the process of getting them in one at a time instead of allowing the jam-up to go on and create an even bigger mess.

That's exactly how the process has worked out. Six wide receivers have been voted in since 2007, and the logjam has been eased. Brown is in now, Harrison is on deck, and other wide receivers are lining up: Bruce, Holt, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, Randy Moss. I don't know how many of them will make it to Canton sooner than later — but allowing a logjam to exist without taking action doesn't help anyone. It's a problem. And we're doing something about the problem.

This applies to other positions. Haley's induction is good news for another worthy pass rusher, Kevin Greene, who should be next. Now that Bettis is cleared, voters can turn more attention to RB Terrell Davis.

2. In effect, Pace lost out to Will Shields. A couple of points on that: first of all, I don't understand my fellow voters who apparently believed they had to compare the offensive linemen and choose between them. When it gets down to picking the final five, I have no philosophical problem choosing two guys who play the same position.

But that's the other thing; Pace (a tackle) and Shields (a guard) don't play the same position. Well, it didn't matter. It's obvious to me that it was going to come down to Pace or Shields in the vote from 10 to 5 ... and Shields was the choice.

I have mixed feelings. I wanted Pace to make it and made a strong push for him. I was disappointed when he didn't make it. But if, in fact, Pace lost out to Shields, then I can't rip the decision.

Yes, I believe a shutdown left tackle is more valuable to an offense than a top guard. But who can deny or disparage Shields' worthiness? Shields was a great player; the man was voted to the Pro Bowl for 12 consecutive seasons. That's incredible. And Shields was on the finalist list for the fourth time.

I didn't view this as a Pace vs. Shields contest. But if my fellow voters did see it that way — and clearly, that was the case — I can't pound on them for giving the nod to Shields. It was his time. And if Pace has to wait one year, it's hardly a reason to call Amnesty International. That said, if Pace doesn't make it next year, I don't think I'll be as diplomatic.

3. In my opinion, it's difficult for voters to @#$%& Warner's career. It was a unique career — one of the most unique stories in NFL history. Warner came out of nowhere to help lead the Rams to two Super Bowls (and one title) in three years, winning two league MVPs and a Super Bowl MVP. He gets hurt, with a damaged hand causing him major problems in gripping and throwing the football. He's released by the Rams, and fades into a backup role with the NY Giants and Arizona Cardinals. And then he has a second act, rising from the abyss to reemerge as a starter and take the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.

The Rams had more losses in the 1990s than any NFL team before '99. The Cardinals had the most losses (499) in the NFL between 1948 and 2007 ... until Warner led them to their first Super Bowl. One quarterback takes two sad-sack franchises to the Super Bowl?

It's a truly remarkable career. It's also a career that has a rather substantial hole. Over five seasons (2002 through 2006) Warner started only 31 games, had an 8-23 record, threw more interceptions (30) than touchdowns (27), had a mediocre passer rating (82.3) and fumbled way too often.

At his best, his peak, Warner was as good as any QB in NFL history. And he helped transform two losing franchises. But how do you measure that against the five-year hole in his career?

I personally don't wrestle with that because I understand that Warner was damaged during those lost years. To me, his ability to come back from the weak hand and do it all over again for Arizona ... well, that makes his career more impressive. Not less impressive.

But I think other voters are still trying to reconcile all of this — the sizzling Warner peak and the sad Warner struggles. They'll get there. He'll be a Hall of Famer. When a player makes it to the final 10 on his first year on the ballot, history tells us that he's a virtual certainty to make it to the Hall of Fame. And Kurt has a lot of support in the room.

Thanks for reading ...