Great article on Rams O and Gurley

[SteveBrown]

This is from FiveThirtyEight. Pretty interesting too. The link it better.
https://www.ramsfansunited.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=8932&sid=61e48499a75c136c69ff40c9380fc79c


Good argument on Gurley being the beneficiary, but this begs another question. Is this ALL caused by McVay? How much credit needs to go to Goff for forcing the 6 man boxes? Would Gurley still get that favorable defense with any QB?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to ... ry-twitter


Todd Gurley Is In The Right System At The Right Time
Josh Hermsmeyer2:41 PM
Oct. 19, 2018, at

Todd Gurley is off to one of the hottest starts in NFL history. After rushing for a league-leading 623 yards and nine touchdowns — plus 247 receiving yards and two more TDs through the air — Gurley has accumulated the fifth-most adjusted yards1 from scrimmage through six games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, joining former Rams greats Marshall Faulk and Eric Dickerson near the top of the list. The Rams are 6-0 on the young season, and Gurley’s breakneck performance is often cited as a catalyst for the team’s success. He has even been in the early discussion for league MVP.

But is that really warranted? Does the Rams offense truly run through Gurley, or should we be giving head coach Sean McVay more of the credit?

One approach to answering that question is to look at how McVay’s scheme affects Gurley’s performance. So far this year, the Rams have run nearly every offensive play from what is called the “11” personnel: one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, the Rams have run 95 percent of their offensive plays from this package — 32 percentage points more than the league average of 63 percent. And while heavy utilization of three wide receiver looks isn’t new to McVay — the Rams ran 81 percent of their plays out of “11” in 2017 — 2018 is a massive outlier. McVay appears to have concluded that the deception afforded the offense by lining up with the same personnel package each play is greater than the constraints it places on his play calling.

The Rams rarely stray from their favorite formation

NFL teams by the share of their plays run in each of the three most popular offensive formations, 2018

Offensive formation
Team 11: ONE RB, ONE TE, three WRs 12: ONE RB, TWO TEs, TWO WRs 21: Two RBs, one TE, two WRs
L.A. Rams 95% 2% 0%
Green Bay 77 14 1
Miami 77 8 1
Seattle 77 9 5
Indianapolis 72 18 3
Cleveland 70 16 1
Jacksonville 70 10 6
Cincinnati 69 20 2
Washington 69 17 0
Oakland 68 13 7
N.Y. Giants 67 23 4
Tampa Bay 67 14 7
Arizona 66 19 4
Denver 66 13 11
Buffalo 64 20 10
Chicago 64 20 10
Houston 62 34 0
Minnesota 62 23 9
Detroit 61 10 5
Pittsburgh 61 15 7
New Orleans 60 13 12
Carolina 59 14 8
Kansas City 59 22 9
Dallas 57 18 6
Atlanta 56 14 13
L.A. Chargers 56 17 10
Philadelphia 54 36 0
Tennessee 53 35 2
N.Y. Jets 52 24 0
New England 49 9 28
Baltimore 48 26 1
San Francisco 40 8 41
Average 63 17 7
Source: Sports Info Solutions

There are other benefits from repeatedly giving the opponent the same look, however, and they affect Gurley’s performance in important ways. When a team can spread a defense out laterally across the field, it opens up the middle and makes running the ball easier. Running backs with at least 20 carries averaged 4.75 yards per carry against six men in the box from 2016 to 2018.2 That’s well over half a yard higher than the average of 4.09 yards per carry when that same group of runners faced seven defenders near the line of scrimmage. Against eight-man fronts, the average gain falls to 3.59. Facing a loaded box makes running much more difficult.

McVay is no rube. He likely realizes that if you are going to run in the NFL, you should do so against a light box. Even better, this is something he can control. An offense exerts quite a bit of influence over how many box defenders it faces by how many wide receivers it chooses to deploy. When offenses play three wideouts, NFL defensive coordinators will typically match body type with body type and send a nickel defensive back in to cover the third receiver, leaving six defenders in the box.

As a consequence, Gurley has faced more six-man fronts on his carries than any other running back in football since McVay took over as head coach of the Rams. It has paid serious dividends. So far this season, Gurley is crushing it against those fronts, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. But against a neutral seven-man front, he’s been below league average at just 3.7 yards per attempt.

Gurley thrives when there are fewer defenders

Number of carries and yards per carry against a standard defense of six men in the box, 2017-18

Player No. of carries yards per carry
Todd Gurley 202 5.12
Kareem Hunt 113 4.91
Lamar Miller 112 4.42
LeVeon Bell 103 4.45
Melvin Gordon 101 4.73
Source: Sports Info Solutions

Gurley is basically the same back he has always been since he came into the league. If you use broken and missed tackles as a proxy for talent,3 you can see that Gurley makes defenders miss when running against six-man fronts far less than expected. He thrives, like most running backs, when he’s allowed to hit open holes and get to the second level relatively unscathed.


So Gurley is the beneficiary, not the proximate cause, of the Rams’ offensive resurgence under McVay. Gurley has been put in a position to succeed and has taken full advantage. Crucially, while the Rams have benefited from being smart in their offensive schemes and decision-making, it’s likely that many teams could emulate them and achieve similar success on the ground. Spreading a defense out and running against a light front is not a particularly novel idea. The commitment shown by running 95 percent of your plays out of a formation that encourages that result, however, is quite innovative. McVay pushes winning edges better than any coach in the NFL — and he, not his running back, is the principal reason that the Rams are currently the toast of the league.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

 

[jrry32]

As always, stats can be informative, but they don't give you the full picture. Gurley is both a beneficiary and a proximate cause of our offensive resurgence. He's arguably the best pass blocking HB in the NFL. He's one of the NFL's best receiving HBs. He's arguably the best screen HB in the NFL. And he scares the hell out of second-level defenders on play-action fakes. That opens up the intermediate range for our passing game to feast. McVay schemes Gurley great opportunities, and Gurley affords McVay the ability to scheme others great opportunities.

I think the premise of the article is a bit silly. It's basically arguing that because McVay puts Gurley in positions to thrive, he's not a catalyst. Isn't that what great coaches are supposed to do . . . put their elite players in positions to thrive? I think the way the article concludes is especially uninformed. He basically posits that everybody can do what we're doing. It reminds me of the way people used to talk about the Shanahan-Gibbs ZBS. It seemed like they could plug any HB into that system and see him thrive. Why didn't every team just do the same thing? Because they couldn't. There's a reason why teams aren't doing exactly what we're doing. It's because they can't.

 

[Merlin]

As always, stats can be informative, but they don't give you the full picture. Gurley is both a beneficiary and a proximate cause of our offensive resurgence. He's arguably the best pass blocking HB in the NFL. He's one of the NFL's best receiving HBs. He's arguably the best screen HB in the NFL. And he scares the hell out of second-level defenders on play-action fakes. That opens up the intermediate range for our passing game to feast. McVay schemes Gurley great opportunities, and Gurley affords McVay the ability to scheme others great opportunities.

I think the premise of the article is a bit silly. It's basically arguing that because McVay puts Gurley in positions to thrive, he's not a catalyst. Isn't that what great coaches are supposed to do . . . put their elite players in positions to thrive? I think the way the article concludes is especially uninformed. He basically posits that everybody can do what we're doing. It reminds me of the way people used to talk about the Shanahan-Gibbs ZBS. It seemed like they could plug any HB into that system and see him thrive. Why didn't every team just do the same thing? Because they couldn't. There's a reason why teams aren't doing exactly what we're doing. It's because they can't.

Agreed on the above. But it's funny you mention Shanahan and that blocking scheme, which is thriving in spite of some big losses to injury. Honestly the job Shanny has done thus far this year in having that team still fighting and producing offensively like they have is one of the more impressive coaching jobs this season.

 

[jrry32]

Agreed on the above. But it's funny you mention Shanahan and that blocking scheme, which is thriving in spite of some big losses to injury. Honestly the job Shanny has done thus far this year in having that team still fighting and producing offensively like they have is one of the more impressive coaching jobs this season.

What's interesting is that Little Shanny is very much the opposite of McVay in terms of personnel:


We're #1 in 11 personnel. SF is #32. SF leads the league in 21 personnel. Little Shanny prefers 21 personnel because of its run flexibility and its ability to force defense to use base personnel (less DBs on the field). Plus, he has a great pass-catcher at FB and loves to exploit that mismatch.

The author of the article is another stats guy (self-professed "data scientist") who doesn't understand the game well enough to be able to generate informed conclusions from his metrics. Teams don't tend to run 11 personnel to the extent we do because it has a number of negatives associated with it. Yes, it results in less players in the box. However, it also results in more DBs on the field and makes it more difficult for offenses to adjust to the blitz. That's not a big issue for us because we have the best pass protecting HB in the NFL.

However, a team with a HB who isn't a well rounded monster like Gurley would run into issues if they tried to heavily use 11 personnel. Gurley's threat as a receiver, his ability as a blocker, and his ability in the screen game limit opponents' ability to use blitzes. On the other hand, teams that don't have a single HB who can run the ball effectively, pick up blitzes effectively, and catch the ball effectively can't use 11 personnel like we do. There aren't many HBs in the NFL who offer all of those skills.

Moreover, more DBs on the field is a problem for passing attacks. Little Shanny likes less DBs on the field because it makes it easier for him to find and exploit mismatches. The reason it's not such a problem for us is because of a number of reasons. McVay's scheming and the talent on offense are two big reasons why. However, the threat of Gurley in the backfield is a big reason why more DBs isn't problematic for us. Our play-action passing game is extraordinarily effective, and even when we don't use it, just having Gurley back there forces teams to offer our other offensive players better matchups.

Simply put, the author of the article is making some enormous logical leaps to come to the conclusions he does. It's the sort of stuff I often see from people who know stats but don't have a high-level understanding of football. I enjoy fantasy football, but the downside of its popularity is that more and more people think football is a game of numbers. They don't really understand or try to understand what's happening on the field.

 

[Limey]

If he was so easily replaceable, I don’t think they would have given him a big extension as early as they did.

As for him being below average on neutral 7 man fronts, the author doesn’t take into account the context of when Gurley sees those fronts. I would hazard a guess that it will be in short yardage and goal-to-go situations, where our 3 WRs mean the DC can’t go with 8 in the box, but is still focused on the run. Great as McVay’s play calling has been, those are both situations where he has struggled on occasions. As an aside, the play he called late v Denver where Gurley rushed down the left sideline was a positive sign imho.

 

[Faceplant]

Yeah, Gurley is average at best. I could run just as well in that scheme... ..

 

[551staaa]

Not taking anything away from Gurley, because he is the best back in the league, but I would have loved to see Steven Jackson have the opportunity to play in an offense like this one. What that man did for 8 years on bad teams is mind boggling.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Not one mention of Rams elite OL play. Or does the author think the OL has nothing to do with the success of the RB?

 

[Ram65]

The Rams WRs are also great blockers and McVay takes advantage of that.

Funny how in the off season or training camp McVay mentioned that the Rams last year used 11 personnel too much and may have become too predictable. I was expecting more 12 lineups but, he went the other way. The link below is a stat article that had the Rams at 80% running 11 personnel. It also shows history of the 11 personnel increased usage percentage since 2009. Here it mentions RBs and TEs with all around skills @jrry32 mentioned. Teams that have TEs that are really WR skew the numbers. McVay keeps defenses off balance because the Rams can do both pass and run effectively from the same personnel group. I agree Gurley's skill set allows a lot of this.

Here is a quoted.

_________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-rise-of-11-personnel-in-the-nfl
"Teams who can now find players at the running back and tight end positions who excel at the secondary and tertiary required skill sets (pass-blocking and receiving) create matchup advantages you’ll see in the personnel groupings below.



HIGHEST PERSONNEL USAGES ACROSS THE LEAGUE
11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs – NFL average: 58%)
1. Los Angeles Rams – 80%

Not only did head coach Sean McVay change the culture in Rams country, he also greatly changed their offensive dynamics. While still above league average in 2016 (65 percent 11 personnel vs. 59 percent NFL average), the additions of Robert Woods (83.2 grade), Sammy Watkins (76.2) and rookie Cooper Kupp (81.2) in addition to Todd Gurley (No. 1 RB – 92.0 grade) led the Rams to use 11 personnel on a league-leading 80 percent of plays. Given the presence of Gurley, among other factors, the Rams were also less likely to throw the ball compared to the rest of the league out of their 1-RB sets:

• 11 personnel – 63 percent of plays were passes compared to 72 percent NFL average
• 12 personnel (12% of plays) – 37 percent pass compared to 52 percent NFL average"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Bootleg]

McVay's offense is built to suit the players, not the other way.

In Washington, McVay featured the tight ends because that was a strength. In LA, the tight ends are average so they are an after thought in the offensive scheme. With the Rams, McVay has built an offense that maximizes the best rushing/receiving back in the league and three very talented receivers. That's why he runs 11 personnel most of the time. If McVay had two stud backs you can bet he'd run 21 personnel like Shanny.

In other words, it all starts with Gurley being an uber stud RB.... if he was average, McVay would be featuring different schemes and personnel formations.

 

[den-the-coach]

Not one mention of Rams elite OL play. Or does the author think the OL has nothing to do with the success of the RB?

Fine by me I'm starting to think with more Ram success you could see OL Coach Aaron Kromer on some short lists for a Head Coach.

 

[Ellard80]

I guess this fuckstick missed the stat where Gurley has more yards after contact than any other RB in the league (over last two years even) Kind of pokes a hole in his grand theory.


https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing/2018/all


Interesting read though...

 

[1maGoh]

I guess this fuckstick missed the stat where Gurley has more yards after contact than any other RB in the league (over last two years even) Kind of pokes a hole in his grand theory.


https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing/2018/all


Interesting read though...

Yeah, I thought that whole thing about him not breaking/juking enough tackles was stupid. Clearly this guy is an after the game stats nerd, not watching the games.

 

[Ellard80]

Yeah, I thought that whole thing about him not breaking/juking enough tackles was stupid. Clearly this guy is an after the game stats nerd, not watching the games.

Yeah and he is failing as a stat nerd gigantically... because the stats show that Gurley is the best in the last two years at yards after contact...

 

[jap]

As always, stats can be informative, but they don't give you the full picture. Gurley is both a beneficiary and a proximate cause of our offensive resurgence. He's arguably the best pass blocking HB in the NFL. He's one of the NFL's best receiving HBs. He's arguably the best screen HB in the NFL. And he scares the hell out of second-level defenders on play-action fakes. That opens up the intermediate range for our passing game to feast. McVay schemes Gurley great opportunities, and Gurley affords McVay the ability to scheme others great opportunities.

I think the premise of the article is a bit silly. It's basically arguing that because McVay puts Gurley in positions to thrive, he's not a catalyst. Isn't that what great coaches are supposed to do . . . put their elite players in positions to thrive? I think the way the article concludes is especially uninformed. He basically posits that everybody can do what we're doing. It reminds me of the way people used to talk about the Shanahan-Gibbs ZBS. It seemed like they could plug any HB into that system and see him thrive. Why didn't every team just do the same thing? Because they couldn't. There's a reason why teams aren't doing exactly what we're doing. It's because they can't.

Many writers tend to be very simplistic in their arguments. They like to have a single hero or a single goat getting all the credit or blame. The concept of synergy---mixing superlative collection of individual player talents to produce a highly effective & flexible offensive war machine---is lost in such arguments.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

Not one mention of Rams elite OL play. Or does the author think the OL has nothing to do with the success of the RB?

I've been zeroing in on our OL on all the highlight reels lately. They're a blast to watch. Even Jamon was moving people out of the way at will on the plays I watched him from Sun. Check that Saffold mic'ed up one if you haven't already.