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Tipsheet: QB stocks sink as draft nears
• BY JEFF GORDON JGORDON@POST-DISPATCH.COM
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colu...cle_7db7f357-91fd-5985-b123-773d3dc21605.html
Rams management hoped teams would fall in love with quarterbacks during the NFL Draft evaluation period and bid up the value of the second overall pick.
It appears the opposite is happening. Johnny Manziel stock appears to be trading low right now and teams appear to be cooling on some other top QBs as well.
Maybe that is just pre-draft posturing. Or maybe, just maybe, teams won’t stage an early run on quarterbacks in this deep draft.
There is so much quality in this draft at other positions, such as wide receiver, offensive tackle and linebacker. And there are a lot of interesting quarterbacks bubbling up from the lower to mid-rounds.
Here is how some experts are sizing up the scenario:
Greg Cosell, Yahoo! Sports: “The pocket throws are nice enough to make you think you have something to work with. You also visualize him breaking down defenses on third down with extended plays. Then his glaring lack of discipline pops into your head, all the throws he leaves on the field, and it makes you wonder: What will Manziel be in the NFL? Do I have a comfortable answer? So you start debating with yourself, what kind of offense am I going to run if I draft Manziel early in the draft? Do I need to build a complete team around him, like the Seattle model with (Russell) Wilson? Limit him as much as possible as he learns how to play NFL quarterback? Remember, Wilson ran an NFL offense at Wisconsin. Maybe put Manziel in the shotgun here and there to stress the defense, and make it account for read-option elements. Or take the opposite approach, and let Manziel basically run the same kind of offense he ran at Texas A&M? Spread it out, keep it simple, let him run around and hope he makes the spectacular plays that defined him in college. Is that viable in the NFL?”
Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com: “History, prior association and a semi-sensational quote tell us one thing. The mock drafts Insider are telling us another Insider. Whom to believe when it comes to projecting the likelihood the Minnesota Vikings would select Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel if he is available at No. 8 next month? There is no telling what is truly going on inside the heads of Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, two of the three most important people involved in the decision. (The third, general manager Rick Spielman, has pledged to draft players who match the sensibilities of his coaching staff.) We can, however, say this with confidence: Manziel would represent a stylistic departure from the offense played on the teams Zimmer and Turner have coached throughout their combined 49 NFL seasons.”
Mike Tanier, Sports on Earth: “Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater reportedly continues to struggle. I think Bridgewater is the best all-around quarterback prospect in the draft, but the longer the pre-draft run-up continues, the more he looks like an undersized, step-too-slow guy whose arm is not that great and accuracy is not as tight as advertised. In other words, he is morphing into Tajhy Boydwater.”
Jarret Bell, USA Today: “Maybe this is the year quarterbacks are pushed down the board rather than up. The best value might be in Round 2, given the notion there's not much separation among the top half-dozen . . . Surely, counter-temptations loom: Bridgewater's composure; (Blake) Bortles' upside, wrapped in prototypical measurables; and Manziel's scrambling as a gunslinger. This brings the 2011 draft to mind. Three years ago, Cam Newton emerged as the No. 1 overall, amid extended debate comparing him to Blaine Gabbert. Former Carolina Panthers general manager Marty Hurney told me it was such an earnest process that they didn't settle on Newton until about a week before the draft. Whew. They got that one right. Gabbert, selected 10th by Jacksonville in 2011, was traded to the San Francisco 49ers last month for a sixth-round pick. He wasn't the only reach. The Vikings took Christian Ponder with the 12th pick. The Tennessee Titans chose Jake Locker at No. 8. And it should be noted the Jaguars, Vikings and Titans have all switched coaches since 2011, while Jacksonville also has another GM, Dave Caldwell.”
Peter King, SI.com: “I’ve heard that at least four quarterback-needy teams—Houston (first pick), Jacksonville (3), Cleveland (4) and Oakland (5)—are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections. Simple reason: They’re not in love with any of the quarterbacks, and there are too many other good players who are surer things than a quarterback you have sincere doubts about. For that reason, there could be more quarterbacks taken in round two than round one. For instance, Jacksonville really likes Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois, and he’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39.
Erik Galko, Sporting News: "The Browns will draft a quarterback someplace in the top-40 picks. That seems clear. Which one might they target? That’s less clear. From what I’ve heard, the scouting staff may prefer Derek Carr and Garoppolo, both 26th or 35th overall targets. However, new coach Mike Pettine and owner Jimmy Haslam reportedly are excited about the potential of landing Johnny Manziel. Optimum Scouting has long had Manziel as the Browns pick at No. 26 overall because of these rumors. There’s simply not a clear team fit for Manziel in the first round.”
Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com: “I keep hearing all this talk that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might be a first-round pick. If he does go in the first round, somebody would be making a big mistake. I watched some Garoppolo tape last week and I saw a passer who has a quick release, a solid arm on medium throws, but a quarterback with a lot of questions. Two things bothered me: He hops in the pocket and he seems to pat the ball a lot before making a throw. Are those fixable? Maybe. He also seems to feel pressure when it's not there and leave a good pocket at times. He played in a quarterback-friendly offense, and did some good things, but for anybody to say he should be taken in the first round is crazy. I would take him in the third or fourth and realize I have a project to work on for a year or two.”
SO THE RAMS SHOULD TRADE BRADFORD
Or so wrote Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:
About a month from the draft, at a time when there are growing rumblings among scouts that the overall strength of elite players at positions other that quarterback could lead to the passers falling a bit, this might be as good a time as any to covertly gauge a market for Bradford. If it's me, I'm seeing if someone else out there would want to buy-in to Bradford's antiquated contract that's the offspring of a collective-bargaining agreement long since overhauled.
If I could opt out now -- with Bradford having two years and $27M left on his deal but all of his $50M in guaranteed money already in his pocket -- and get decent value in return, that might be too good to pass up. And several other execs I spoke with thought the Rams might be best served by taking a proactive approach to this conundrum. A team could select multiple quarterbacks in the first round of multiple drafts, for instance, and still not owe their cumulative 2014 quarterback the $14M Bradford is set to make this season.
Don't hold your breath waiting for such a deal to go down.
MYSTERIES OF THE UNIVERSE
Questions to ponder while wondering how Sammy Watkins enjoyed his visit to Rams Park:
Wouldn't the Masters be that much more fun with windmills on the greens?
When will people quit picking on Tim Tebow?
Who should you root for in the NHL playoffs?
MEGAPHONE
“One thing I know for sure: Need is a terrible evaluator. That's typically where mistakes are made.”
Former NFL coach Brian Billick, to USA Today.
• BY JEFF GORDON JGORDON@POST-DISPATCH.COM
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colu...cle_7db7f357-91fd-5985-b123-773d3dc21605.html
Rams management hoped teams would fall in love with quarterbacks during the NFL Draft evaluation period and bid up the value of the second overall pick.
It appears the opposite is happening. Johnny Manziel stock appears to be trading low right now and teams appear to be cooling on some other top QBs as well.
Maybe that is just pre-draft posturing. Or maybe, just maybe, teams won’t stage an early run on quarterbacks in this deep draft.
There is so much quality in this draft at other positions, such as wide receiver, offensive tackle and linebacker. And there are a lot of interesting quarterbacks bubbling up from the lower to mid-rounds.
Here is how some experts are sizing up the scenario:
Greg Cosell, Yahoo! Sports: “The pocket throws are nice enough to make you think you have something to work with. You also visualize him breaking down defenses on third down with extended plays. Then his glaring lack of discipline pops into your head, all the throws he leaves on the field, and it makes you wonder: What will Manziel be in the NFL? Do I have a comfortable answer? So you start debating with yourself, what kind of offense am I going to run if I draft Manziel early in the draft? Do I need to build a complete team around him, like the Seattle model with (Russell) Wilson? Limit him as much as possible as he learns how to play NFL quarterback? Remember, Wilson ran an NFL offense at Wisconsin. Maybe put Manziel in the shotgun here and there to stress the defense, and make it account for read-option elements. Or take the opposite approach, and let Manziel basically run the same kind of offense he ran at Texas A&M? Spread it out, keep it simple, let him run around and hope he makes the spectacular plays that defined him in college. Is that viable in the NFL?”
Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com: “History, prior association and a semi-sensational quote tell us one thing. The mock drafts Insider are telling us another Insider. Whom to believe when it comes to projecting the likelihood the Minnesota Vikings would select Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel if he is available at No. 8 next month? There is no telling what is truly going on inside the heads of Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, two of the three most important people involved in the decision. (The third, general manager Rick Spielman, has pledged to draft players who match the sensibilities of his coaching staff.) We can, however, say this with confidence: Manziel would represent a stylistic departure from the offense played on the teams Zimmer and Turner have coached throughout their combined 49 NFL seasons.”
Mike Tanier, Sports on Earth: “Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater reportedly continues to struggle. I think Bridgewater is the best all-around quarterback prospect in the draft, but the longer the pre-draft run-up continues, the more he looks like an undersized, step-too-slow guy whose arm is not that great and accuracy is not as tight as advertised. In other words, he is morphing into Tajhy Boydwater.”
Jarret Bell, USA Today: “Maybe this is the year quarterbacks are pushed down the board rather than up. The best value might be in Round 2, given the notion there's not much separation among the top half-dozen . . . Surely, counter-temptations loom: Bridgewater's composure; (Blake) Bortles' upside, wrapped in prototypical measurables; and Manziel's scrambling as a gunslinger. This brings the 2011 draft to mind. Three years ago, Cam Newton emerged as the No. 1 overall, amid extended debate comparing him to Blaine Gabbert. Former Carolina Panthers general manager Marty Hurney told me it was such an earnest process that they didn't settle on Newton until about a week before the draft. Whew. They got that one right. Gabbert, selected 10th by Jacksonville in 2011, was traded to the San Francisco 49ers last month for a sixth-round pick. He wasn't the only reach. The Vikings took Christian Ponder with the 12th pick. The Tennessee Titans chose Jake Locker at No. 8. And it should be noted the Jaguars, Vikings and Titans have all switched coaches since 2011, while Jacksonville also has another GM, Dave Caldwell.”
Peter King, SI.com: “I’ve heard that at least four quarterback-needy teams—Houston (first pick), Jacksonville (3), Cleveland (4) and Oakland (5)—are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections. Simple reason: They’re not in love with any of the quarterbacks, and there are too many other good players who are surer things than a quarterback you have sincere doubts about. For that reason, there could be more quarterbacks taken in round two than round one. For instance, Jacksonville really likes Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois, and he’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39.
Erik Galko, Sporting News: "The Browns will draft a quarterback someplace in the top-40 picks. That seems clear. Which one might they target? That’s less clear. From what I’ve heard, the scouting staff may prefer Derek Carr and Garoppolo, both 26th or 35th overall targets. However, new coach Mike Pettine and owner Jimmy Haslam reportedly are excited about the potential of landing Johnny Manziel. Optimum Scouting has long had Manziel as the Browns pick at No. 26 overall because of these rumors. There’s simply not a clear team fit for Manziel in the first round.”
Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com: “I keep hearing all this talk that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might be a first-round pick. If he does go in the first round, somebody would be making a big mistake. I watched some Garoppolo tape last week and I saw a passer who has a quick release, a solid arm on medium throws, but a quarterback with a lot of questions. Two things bothered me: He hops in the pocket and he seems to pat the ball a lot before making a throw. Are those fixable? Maybe. He also seems to feel pressure when it's not there and leave a good pocket at times. He played in a quarterback-friendly offense, and did some good things, but for anybody to say he should be taken in the first round is crazy. I would take him in the third or fourth and realize I have a project to work on for a year or two.”
SO THE RAMS SHOULD TRADE BRADFORD
Or so wrote Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:
About a month from the draft, at a time when there are growing rumblings among scouts that the overall strength of elite players at positions other that quarterback could lead to the passers falling a bit, this might be as good a time as any to covertly gauge a market for Bradford. If it's me, I'm seeing if someone else out there would want to buy-in to Bradford's antiquated contract that's the offspring of a collective-bargaining agreement long since overhauled.
If I could opt out now -- with Bradford having two years and $27M left on his deal but all of his $50M in guaranteed money already in his pocket -- and get decent value in return, that might be too good to pass up. And several other execs I spoke with thought the Rams might be best served by taking a proactive approach to this conundrum. A team could select multiple quarterbacks in the first round of multiple drafts, for instance, and still not owe their cumulative 2014 quarterback the $14M Bradford is set to make this season.
Don't hold your breath waiting for such a deal to go down.
MYSTERIES OF THE UNIVERSE
Questions to ponder while wondering how Sammy Watkins enjoyed his visit to Rams Park:
Wouldn't the Masters be that much more fun with windmills on the greens?
When will people quit picking on Tim Tebow?
Who should you root for in the NHL playoffs?
MEGAPHONE
“One thing I know for sure: Need is a terrible evaluator. That's typically where mistakes are made.”
Former NFL coach Brian Billick, to USA Today.
