Good Read on Rams/Denver game/FF....Rams in general

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sdakotaram

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sdakotaram
Here is the progression of which I experienced the STL-DEN game week…
Heading into the game, I felt it was an easy choice. You have Denver/Peyton going indoors against a Rams team that was switching QBs, again, and had allowed 30 or more points in games in six of their nine games played heading into Week 11. Denver under Peyton Manning has never lost to a team with a losing record. They tend to obliterate, and humiliate weaker foes. Laying 9.5 points would be easy against the Rams. So I placed the minor bet.
On Sunday, I watch the 1pm games all at the same time….so it’s hard to focus on just one, but I do the best I can. I wasn’t super-excited about watching this game…why would I be? Boring déjà vu of Denver stomping another hapless foe. Every time I peaked in on this game, Peyton was missing short 3rd-down conversions, but I was not worried because I was sure they’d press down on the gas soon enough. Down to the very end, as I’d glance at the game, STL just kept holding the lead. Into the 4th-quarter, I could do the math…no way Denver would cover. I was sure they’d win it still, but no way would they cover…but with Peyton, you never know.
My mind had already decided what it was watching days prior. I was watching the Denver Broncos, arguably the best team in football (in my mind), take on the disappointing/losing record St. Louis Rams. There was no way the Rams would win. When they did win, I assumed it was one of those fluky wins…although I couldn’t recall a fluky moment glancing back and forth at it from 1-4pm ET. I was sure I missed something as to why this oddity happened…probably all the Denver injuries.
I re-watched the game for scouting purposes. I realized what I missed.
Two things, really.
(1) The Denver Broncos are the old Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz from back in the day…more on this at the very end of this piece. (2) The St. Louis Rams are one of the ten best teams in the NFL right now. Emphasis on ‘now’…it’s a late developing situation. The possibility was there all along. We all saw it (fan and analyst) coming into the season…it’s coming to fruition now.
I’m not saying the Rams will run the table, but they might. I won’t commit to it because I don’t trust Jeff Fisher…a great defensive mind, and an odd offensive strategist. He’s like a more polite Rex Ryan. His teams are always formidable, always under-performing (he’s had two winning seasons in his last nine seasons prior to 2014), occasionally popping up to beat good teams when you least expect it, always having a letdown when just when you start getting excited by his team, always rock solid on defense, and always maddening on offense.
Austin Davis over Shaun Hill was a massive mistake. The Daryl Richardson era was offensive to my football scouting sensibilities. The overuse of Tre Mason right now is bad strategy. The revolving door of under-performing WRs has been frustrating.
It all doesn’t matter now.
Fisher may have just spun the Rubik’s Cube in the direction finally, even if by accident, and figured out a winner…a top-10 NFL team. If he gets whacked at San Diego this week as a follow-up to Denver, he should be fired. Everything you want to know about Jeff Fisher + Rams-talent is going to occur this week. A win this week vs. San Diego, and the Rams may make the playoffs…I kid you not. Lose this week, and it’s over. San Diego has been in a death spiral for weeks…the Rams should deliver a knockout blow Sunday…even going on the road. However, these are the types of games Jeff Fisher loses…and we’ll all chalk it up to ‘no QB’, or ‘young team’ or whatever. If the Rams beat San Diego this week, and do so convincingly…there will be a major shift in the NFL hierarchy for both teams.
It will also mean a massive shift in Fantasy Football for Rams-related items. This is the week to be ahead of that curve, before the Rams are the story of the NFL heading into Week 13. OR I get you all excited, and we get the rug pulled out from us at San Diego, and complain about how awful Jeff Fisher is. It’s not unreasonable to pass on everything I’m about to write because what’s hot one week tends to collapse the following…especially with the emerging teams without a top QB, AND Jeff Fisher usually fumbles the ball in these situations.
Sometimes he doesn’t. He’s a solid coach, especially on good on defense. This is a defensive-led renaissance. This is like ARI-SEA-SF, his division mates…plausible offenses that rely on their defense. The Rams, at full strength, have the best defense in the NFC West…and that statement may be true right now, only the masses don’t ‘feel it’ yet. I think it is coming. Actually, I think it’s here.
This was not a lucky win by the Rams. This was Seattle v. Denver in the Super Bowl bad for Peyton…a let me walk right up to your face and punch you as hard as I can, and you will live in fear of me forever, and you will do nothing about it type of beating. The re-watch of this was stunning how much better the Rams were than Denver…and you do get that this never happens to Denver/Peyton? They never lose to joke teams.
The Rams are no joke…and the whole world will be talking about them with a win this week.
If they lose…I’ll climb back in my hole for six more weeks of winter.
So take this analysis of FF-action with whatever salt grains you’d like…
-- I am going ‘all-in’ on the St. Louis Rams DST for the ROS, preferably as a DST2 hold until next week.
In their first seven games of 2014, the Rams went 2-5 while allowing 26 or more points in six of those contests. The only team they ‘held’ was Tampa Bay in Week 2 (17 points allowed). The Rams were a preseason top 5-10 Fantasy DST for many, and quickly blew up in all our faces right out of the chute.
Here’s the last three weeks…
Week 9: Went to San Francisco and won 13-10. The 49ers went 3 for 12 on 3rd-downs, and the Rams stuffed Colin Kaepernick on the goal line at the end of the game. Even if they didn’t…it would have only 17 points allowed. Frank Gore bottled up, and Kaepernick held mediocre…after he had rocked them a few weeks prior.
Oh, and they sacked Kaepernick eight times.
Week 10: Went to Arizona, led 14-10 at the half. Gave up a late bomb to John Brown, and then allowed two quick defensive scores…and lost 31-14. Without the two D-TDs…they hold ARI to 17 points as well. Arizona was 6 for 15 on 3rd-downs. Andre Ellington carried the ball for 1.3 yards per carry on 18 totes. They stymied Carson Palmer…and sacked him three times…and probably would have gotten 1-2x more sacks if he stayed in.
Week 11: They destroyed Peyton Manning…made him look foolish. Denver scored seven points total…and that was on a busted coverage play to allow Emmanuel Sanders to get wide-open for a long TD.
The last time Peyton Manning was held to seven or fewer points in the regular-season: 2009 in a snowstorm at Buffalo. The last time before that…2001…13 years ago at Miami. Peyton posted eight points in the Super Bowl. The 4-6 St. Louis Rams just did it to him again…in a dome.
Denver went 4 for 12 on 3rd-downs vs. STL…three weeks in-a-row where the Rams held opponents to 40% or less on conversions…to three playoff teams.
What has changed? A couple of things: Aaron Donald (3 tackles, 1 sack) is ‘special’. As Donald is now playing heavier snaps, Robert Quinn (3 PDs, 1 QB hit) has gone from M.I.A. back to menacing again. #1 CB Janoris Jenkins (4 tackles) missed a few games…he is back the last two weeks. The Rams traded for Mark Barron (1 tackle). CB/S Trumaine Johnson (2 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT) is back the past three weeks. Rookie CB E.J. Gaines (8 tackles, 2 PD) is playing better and better. Chris Long is practicing this week for the first time since he went on IR early in the season.
The DST world is changing in St. Louis.
There’s more good FF-news…
Here’s the upcoming schedule of QBs to face from Week 12 to Week 16: Rivers (who is fading), Carr, RG3, Stanton, Eli. All favorable matchups with slight concern on the road vs. Philip Rivers. Again, the Rams just humiliated Peyton Manning.
If the Rams stomp the Chargers this week, then everyone in FF will look at the upcoming schedule and see it too. The Rams will be beyond motivated for Weeks 13-16. The time to get ahead of it is now. If the Rams lose this week…it’s still good, but not as good because we don’t know where their heads will be at as the lost season trudges on.
-- Another advantage for the Rams-DST, and the team in general: Shaun Hill (20-29 for 220 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is a really capable, underrated QB.
Honestly, if you did not have preconceived notions/history of experience on your side, and you watched this game as an empty slate, and I told you one of these QBs is an all-time great, and the other is a backup—you would identify Hill as the star, and Peyton as the jittery hack.
I’ve seen Hill look really good before…he was terrific at times for Detroit as a fill-in starter in 2010. Did you know Hill has never had an NFL season with more picks than TD passes? He has 42 TD/24 INT in his career through last Sunday. He is not a hack…he’s just been overlooked. In this game, he was so superior in decision-making and arm velocity it was jarring. Peyton looked like my dog when he hears a loud noise…ears down, jumpy, sullen. The last time I saw Peyton this out of sorts in a game was every time he plays a great team like Seattle or New England the past couple years.
Shaun Hill is a decent NFL QB. Better than everyone gives him credit for. Why Jeff Fisher didn’t go back to Hill sooner with this team is beyond me. Fisher killed himself, offensively, in 2012 jerking around with Daryl Richardson over Steven Jackson too much…now this. He just doesn’t appear to have an ‘eye for it’ on offense. He’s not alone…don’t get me started.
-- If you buy my Shaun Hill premise, then buckle up because Kenny Britt (4 rec. for 128 yards and 1 TD on 7 targets) may be about to launch to Fantasy WR1 status.
It’s not just the numbers posted; it was what didn’t post. Early in the Denver game, Hill threw a bullet deep over the middle to Britt, who was open by 3-5+ yards streaking past all the DBs. They connected for a 33-yard strike, but Britt had to stop for a moment to grab the ball, then tripped trying to re-start. It could have been a 73-yard TD.
Hill narrowly missed Britt a few more times, not in a bad way…in an Aqib Talib lock down way. There are no lock down corners for Britt-Hill ahead. Hill was definitely seeing Britt as his guy…but he was smart enough not to push it when Talib locked down and Denver doubled over the top. Britt may go nuts over the next weeks…I mean that as in FF-production, but it may be as a human off the field. You make the call. I think Britt is getting overlooked…or disbelieved to some degree, and rightfully so. This game says something awesome might occur ahead with Hill-Britt.
 

rambone

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What a good read indeed. Rarely have I read an article so on point that I can’t take exception with any of it.

He is especially right about Fisher and what the San Diego game means when put in context to what the Rams did to Denver.
 

kurtfaulk

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great read man. thanks for posting.

.
 

sdakotaram

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A friend of mine who is big into FF....RC Fischer.....he does a lot of analyzing in FF. He is not a Ram fan----doesn't dislike them just not his favorite team. :cautious: He is a more of a call as he sees it type of a guy.
 

junkman

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A friend of mine who is big in FF....RC Fischer.....he does a lot of analyzing in FF.

RC Fischer has incredible insight! That's a higher level of observation and awareness than many (most?) Rams fans have about their home team. I don't think ANYBODY saw the Rams/Broncos result coming. But RC Fischer picked up on exactly why, and what it was that everyone was missing. If the Rams show that Denver was not a fluke by repeating the formula in San Diego, then as he says, the landscape changes, and the Rams become officially legit.
 

Zaphod

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If he gets whacked at San Diego this week as a follow-up to Denver, he should be fired.
This is so wrong. Should fantasy football favorite Chip Kelly be fired after his 53-20 loss to the Packers? OUCH!

And that's my main argument with this article, as well written as it was. For all of the excellent points that were made, you just can't run an NFL team by fantasy football measures.

People need to leave fantasy football and John Madden video games where they are and let the men who can handle adversity coach and play football.
 

SteveBrown

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Britt has talent, but he has reached his Ram peak. I hope he isn't a starter next year...great off the bench. Happy we signed him---helped Quick a lot...We need a solid #2, not mercurial Kenny in 2015.
 

sdakotaram

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This is so wrong. Should fantasy football favorite Chip Kelly be fired after his 53-20 loss to the Packers? OUCH!

And that's my main argument with this article, as well written as it was. For all of the excellent points that were made, you just can't run an NFL team by fantasy football measures.

People need to leave fantasy football and John Madden video games where they are and let the men who can handle adversity coach and play football.

As I pointed out he makes his money through FF analysis.......it was based on an outsider looking in at the Rams and his personal opinions along with facts.
 

mr.stlouis

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That was a great read, wow. Talk about a team on the rise. Heck this guy is basically putting the league on notice after a win Sunday.

And seeing Hill outplay Davis by a wide margin makes me wonder if sticking with Davis cost usa few games. All well, it was the the right move to go with Davis at the time and it was the right move to put Hill back in. I just hope Hill doesn't hold it against us. It was business, please stay for another year. :(
 

ztoben

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Britt has talent, but he has reached his Ram peak. I hope he isn't a starter next year...great off the bench. Happy we signed him---helped Quick a lot...We need a solid #2, not mercurial Kenny in 2015.

Why wouldn't you want Britt back as a starter? He's done what has been asked of him and had a good game against a decent Denver secondary. He has #1 potential, and has shown it in the past. The only difference now is that he comes with a great attitude and work ethic, and it has rubbed off on our other receivers (see: quick).
 

rambone

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Britt has talent, but he has reached his Ram peak. I hope he isn't a starter next year...great off the bench. Happy we signed him---helped Quick a lot...We need a solid #2, not mercurial Kenny in 2015.

Reached his peak? Not sure about that - omg he's only 26!

Underutilized, I would agree - but maxed out? I'd argue not even close.
 

Faceplant

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Britt has talent, but he has reached his Ram peak. I hope he isn't a starter next year...great off the bench. Happy we signed him---helped Quick a lot...We need a solid #2, not mercurial Kenny in 2015.

Huh?? Britt has reached his peak after his FIRST full game with the original QB2 throwing him the ball? How do we know he wouldn't be on pace for 90/1000 if Sam hadn't gone down? Britt has been flashing all season to me, we just haven't been getting him the ball. Watch how open he was on the TD to Cook against the Cards. Hell, he looked all but unstoppable against the #5 defense in the league just last week in his best game since...who knows when. I guess it is time to give up on him......
 

Mojo Ram

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QB's Rams will face last six weeks:
Phillip Rivers(banged up)
Derek Carr(rookie)
RGIII(not playing well)
Drew Stanton(unproven)
Eli Manning(not playing well)
Russell Wilson who we have handled lately
 

jrry32

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Can't allow myself to get optimistic again. I'm doing this for all of you. When I get optimistic, bad things happen. ;)
 

Rambition

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wow, that was great to read. finally, someone took off their blinders and actually watched/studied this rams team without, as mentioned, "preconceived" notions. thanks a bunch for posting.
 

Merlin

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Definitely a great read thx for sharing. Some notes from my armchair:

Rams' defensive resurgence started with the return of Johnson to the secondary. This secondary is enormously better when he's in the lineup, and it affects everything else. Williams' calls are absolutely lethal when he's got the guys on the back end executing.

Overuse of Tre Mason is not a bad strategy. I see him as an enormous upgrade for this offense with his speed and burst while still not losing out on physical between-the-tackles ability. Right now, in fact, the Chargers are no doubt concerned about him in their gameplanning.

I still maintain it was wise to go with Davis as long as they did. They gave the guy a long enough look to know what they had, which is valuable moving forward. For those who are all gaga over Hill, well, let's hope he can continue to not make mistakes. I'm good with a field position offense running the ball, eating clock, and taking advantage of short fields this excellent young defense gives them.

Lastly, I believe we can count on this defense now. I believe Williams has these guys starting to peak now based on the exceptional coaching to ensure they can execute his calls, which are outstanding. Game in and game out, the Rams are going to be tough to score on moving forward IMO. And, hopefully Long will return in shape so he can have a strong impact in making this group even nastier.

Here's hoping the Chargers are in for a beating!
 

SteveBrown

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Huh?? Britt has reached his peak after his FIRST full game with the original QB2 throwing him the ball? How do we know he wouldn't be on pace for 90/1000 if Sam hadn't gone down? Britt has been flashing all season to me, we just haven't been getting him the ball. Watch how open he was on the TD to Cook against the Cards. Hell, he looked all but unstoppable against the #5 defense in the league just last week in his best game since...who knows when. I guess it is time to give up on him......
I guess I don't mean with the rams; reached his peak as a player; He looks worse (not physically) but in his approach to route running...just my opinion, I must be wrong, and I look forward to that!
 

Rmfnlt

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This is so wrong. Should fantasy football favorite Chip Kelly be fired after his 53-20 loss to the Packers? OUCH!

And that's my main argument with this article, as well written as it was. For all of the excellent points that were made, you just can't run an NFL team by fantasy football measures.

People need to leave fantasy football and John Madden video games where they are and let the men who can handle adversity coach and play football.

Fired is a bit much, for sure.

But, if they lose in San Diego, I think a lot of Rams fans will be pretty upset.

Denver is a better team than San Diego. I think most would agree with that.

We've now seen what the Rams are capable of against a better team than San Diego.

To lose would be a big letdown (at least to me) and, more importantly, continue the trend this year of no consecutive wins.

To me, it's really a "must win" in order to prove to everyone they can play at a high level consistently.