Goff vs Schwartz

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Merlin

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Yeah, I know, it should have been Goff vs Wentz right? Not sure wtf I was thinking. But anyway, I wanted to discuss the other side of the ball a bit going into this game, and the key matchup is the schematic look of Goff vs Schwartz.

Schwartz has done a great job with the Eagles' defense. He's aggressive as F, and has always managed to find ways to get heat on opposing QBs and make life hard on them. Over the course of the season the Eagles have, in fact, held opposing passers to a very impressive 77.0 (3rd in the league) with an approach that relies heavily on the coverage ability of their secondary with some crazy looks like cover 0.

On the flipside of all that is the fact that obviously Schwartz is a gambler, and the cover 0 and sell-out blitzes they run at times bring a lot of risk and it cost them last week in Seattle. One would think that this approach would result in a very high sack percentage, but surprisingly they are pedestrian there (6.71%, 16th) which is a testament to their back end.

Jared, meanwhile, benefits greatly from good pass protection (4.81% sack percentage, 7th). But he has struggled a bit vs the top defenses he's faced thus far (79.2 passer rating @ Minn, 86.2 @ Jax, and 48.9 Seattle).

So obviously Goff's preparedness vs facing Schwartz's scheme is going to be an enormous deciding factor. Will he be able to burn that defense when he catches them in the right looks, and avoid too many hits with quick throws and throwaways? That is critical because that scheme--as we're well aware of from the Fish regime--feasts on QBs who aren't reading pre-snap and reacting quickly enough.

My own prognosis is that he's going to play well overall, and that he will execute McVay's plan to include burning the defense here and there. I don't think he should face any more pressure per snap than he's used to facing in this game, first off, barring things like injuries up front. Also I think the Rams are going to use a lot of play action on first down, because the Eagles won't have any choice but to honor it. I'm guessing he'll be in the 85-95 range in passer rating, and if so we have a pretty good chance to pull this game out.
 

Merlin

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Oh and btw here's Jared's most recent chart:

upload_2017-12-7_13-4-40.png
 

dolphinlover123

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My own prognosis is that he's going to play well overall, and that he will execute McVay's plan to include burning the defense here and there. I don't think he should face any more pressure per snap than he's used to facing in this game, first off, barring things like injuries up front.
I actually think Goff will get pressured more than usual. From the games that I've watched, their dline has been the most impressive aspect of the team IMO.
 

Merlin

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I actually think Goff will get pressured more than usual. From the games that I've watched, their dline has been the most impressive aspect of the team IMO.

Maybe so. But their sack percentages were very surprising to me. Didn't get into pressures, but then again the Rams' OL is a different beast than, say, Seattle's.
 

dolphinlover123

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Maybe so. But their sack percentages were very surprising to me. Didn't get into pressures, but then again the Rams' OL is a different beast than, say, Seattle's.
I don't really read too much into sack percentages. Sacks happen 3-4 times a game? I think % of pressure and hurry ups is more important, though I can't seem to find those #'s very well.
 

Merlin

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I don't really read too much into sack percentages. Sacks happen 3-4 times a game? I think % of pressure and hurry ups is more important, though I can't seem to find those #'s very well.

This is true, and it's a relatively small percentage regardless, but it does tend to trend well with pressures so it's useful.
 

Merlin

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Will put up one more set of stats I find interesting, which is the vs pass DVOA by position for Philly's defense. These are their rankings vs position types in the passing game, basically...

vs #1 WR: 6th
vs #2 WR: 1st
vs other WR: 9th
vs TE: 17th
vs RB: 14th

For reference here are the Rams' defense...

vs #1 WR: 10th
vs #2 WR: 3rd
vs other WR: 12th
vs TE: 4th
vs RB: 10th

Shows that we are only outside the top ten vs third or fourth wideouts, whereas Philly is strong vs wideouts but more mediocre vs TEs and RBs.
 

SteezyEndo

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@Merlin
Good write up. I am tired of the Wentz vs. Goff, Goff vs. Wentz, Jared vs. Carson threads. Lets look at the real threat at hand. The Schwartz. We are going to have to play aggressive, but not allow time for their D to take control of the situation. Schwartz is a risky guy and he will go all in. We will just have to play it out qtr by qtr and catch his bluffs, and adjust if need be.
 

Ram65

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Schwartz has blitzed more this year IIRC. At least that's the word here. In the past he liked to only send 4 pass rushers most of the time. On phone so won't look it up now. He seems to hsvr changed some to try to get more pressure. I have to think he will send more at some point against Goff.
vs other WR: 9th
vs TE: 17th
vs RB: 14th
Theses could be place to attack. It's going to be an interesting cat and mouse game. If Rams can protect Goff the Eagles secondary can be beaten.
 

bluecoconuts

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Maybe so. But their sack percentages were very surprising to me. Didn't get into pressures, but then again the Rams' OL is a different beast than, say, Seattle's.

NFL O-Line Ranking in terms of Pass Protection (through Week 13)

Washington - 26th (Eagles have played them twice)
NYG - 15th
Arizona - T18th
Denver - 28th
Kansas City - T18th
LA Chargers - Now this one was tricky because they have made a DRAMATIC turnaround while most other lines have been more or less the same. When the Eagles played them they were ranked 25th.. They're now ranked 9th for pass protection. But I'm going to stick with 25th for this.
Carolina - 20th
49ers - 23rd
Dallas 13th
Chicago 21st
Seattle 17th.

Average ranking of the O-Lines the Eagles have played: 20th.

Rams O-Line ranking for Pass Protection: 8th

We're also ranked 5th in run blocking.

Eagles are ranked 16th for both pass protection and run blocking.

I expect the Eagles to dial up a lot of pressure. The good thing is that they have not played an O-Line like ours yet. (Rams have played the 1st, 4th and 5th, going 2-1 in those games for reference, Minnesota was the loss and the wins were against the Jags and Saints) and that could be the difference maker.

Rams D-Line is also 5th when it comes to getting Sacks, (Philly is 16th) so that could also be big.

If games are won in the trenches, the Rams should (key word should) have an advantage. Everyone has to play their best though.
 

PARAM

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Some things that may seems OBVIOUS. Score first. Score TDs.

Philly has scored first in 7 of their 12 games (5 TDs, 2 FGs). Opponents who scored first have scored just FG's. Nobody has scored a TD first to lead 7-0. Philly has led at the half in 8 of their 12 games (tied 10-10 @ Carolina). Two of the three teams who led them at the half, won the game (Dallas led 9-7 and lost 37-9). Philadelphia has trailed by 7 just once in 12 games (Seattle), never by more than 7.

It would do the Rams good to score first and get a lead of more than 7. Doh, I know. Obviously.

Some things of note. They have trailed at the half in two of their last three games (Dallas & Seattle). They've scored first in 2 of their last 5. So perhaps a very good offensive team can grab the lead and build on it?
 
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Merlin

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And an interesting note from Steve Wyche re: the Eagles focusing on removing Gurley:

 

Merlin

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Average ranking of the O-Lines the Eagles have played: 20th.

Rams O-Line ranking for Pass Protection: 8th

We're also ranked 5th in run blocking.

Hopeful that our OL has its best game of the year. It's easy for a defense to say things like "we're going to focus on Gurley" but our OL has something to say about that and if they're firing off it's gonna make that a tough order for the Eagles' defense.
 

RamBall

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And an interesting note from Steve Wyche re: the Eagles focusing on removing Gurley:


I hope they do try to stop Gurley and force Goff to beat them with Watkins, Kupp, Everett, Reynolds, Cooper, Higbee and Tavon. I think McVay will have something to take advantage of stacked boxes.