Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score WR Rankings--Surprising Results

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RamBill

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From: http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/cfb/nfl-draft-player-news


Amari Cooper - WR - Crimson Tide

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score, a system for projecting wide receivers, ranks Alabama WR Amari Cooper as the class' best receiver.
When asked for similar historical prospects, the machine brought back Marvin Harrison and A.J. Green, nice company indeed. "Unlike many wide receiver prospects in this year's draft, Cooper did not play in the spread, and he faced some of the toughest defenses in the country," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "Historically, Cooper probably best compares to Indianapolis Colts great Marvin Harrison as a prospect; Cooper was not quite as dominant as Harrison was at Syracuse, but the mid-'90s Big East wasn't a match for today's SEC, either." Cooper, who collected 124 receptions for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, is ranked by Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay as the best WR in the draft, and he checks in as Scouts Inc.'s No. 3 overall player.


Kevin White - WR -

West Virginia's Kevin White dishearteningly ranks as the No. 8 receiver in the class, in the estimation of Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score.
The organization uses the system to project wide receivers to the next level. "White's total numbers for his senior year were good: 1,447 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "However, the numbers for senior wide receivers who succeed at the NFL level are often much better than White's, especially considering that the Mountaineers threw the ball 534 times. Kendall Wright, for example, entered the draft as a senior, but had more impressive totals: 1,663 receiving yards in only 424 team passing attempts. ... White may have impressed with a 4.35 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but all else being equal, the combine 40 isn't a consistent predictor of future NFL success for receivers." The system offered Michael Floyd and Donnie Avery as similar historical prospects. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound White, a possible top-5 pick, is pegged by Rotoworld as the class' premier receiver.


Nelson Agholor - WR - Trojans

USC WR Nelson Agholor surprisingly ranked as the No. 2 receiver in the class according to Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score.
Terry Glenn and Ike Hilliard were cited as similar historical prospects. "Agholor hopes to break USC out of a wide receiver-producing slump that has included first-round busts such as Mike Williams and R. Jay Soward," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "More recent draft picks Robert Woods and Marqise Lee have had their moments but haven't yet broken out. Agholor was a reasonably productive receiver at USC, with 1,313 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns." Scout's Inc. ranks Agholor as the No. 37 overall prospect.


Dorial Green-Beckham - WR

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score disappointingly ranks WR Dorial Green-Beckham as the No. 13 receiver in the class and offers Jonathan Baldwin and Yatil Green as similar historical prospects.

We'll allow FO's Nathan Forster to explain. "Playmaker Score sometimes has trouble with players like Green-Beckham, who had limited college action and thus are less likely to produce a sample size sufficiently meaningful to forecast their futures," Forster wrote. "However, Green-Beckham was not particularly impressive in either of his two seasons of college football." Indeed, DGB had only had only 883 receiving yards during his sophomore season, the most productive of his two campaigns, even though Missouri passed 414 times that year. As Forster pointed out, L'Damian Washington (893 yards) was actually the team's No. 1 receiver that year: "In contrast to Green-Beckham's high draft grade this year, Washington went undrafted in 2014 and has been kicking around various practice squads. Granted, Washington didn't run a 4.49 40-yard dash at 6-5, 237 pounds, but the point is that Green-Beckham's lack of elite production is a red flag in our model."


DeVante Parker - WR -

Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score grades Louisville WR DeVante Parker as the No. 9 receiver in the class.
The system offered Bryant Johnson and Peter Warrick as similar historical prospects. "Parker has been playing college football for a full four years, and he has never topped 1,000 yards receiving," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "It's not as if he had a weak supporting cast, either: As a junior, he had the benefit of catching passes from first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater at his pre-NFL peak. A future starting NFL wide receiver should have put up video-game-like numbers in those conditions, but Parker produced only 885 yards. Parker put up some nice per-game numbers as a senior after returning from an early injury, but if he had the talent level of a Julio Jones, he would already be in the NFL." NFL Films' Greg Cosell projects Parker as a Michael Crabtree-like "complementary" receiver in the NFL.


Breshad Perriman - WR -

UCF WR Breshad Perriman ranked as the No. 3 receiver in the class according to Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score.
"Perriman was a consistently productive receiver for the Knights, including a stellar junior season despite a huge drop-off at quarterback from Blake Bortles to Justin Holman," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "Perriman enters the draft as an underclassman, has an impressive 19.5 yards per catch average, and his other Playmaker numbers are solid. He put up 40-yard times of 4.24 and 4.27 at his pro day on Wednesday." The system offered Kenny Britt and Darrell Jackson as similar historical prospects to Perriman. College Football Focus recently passed along that Perriman recorded a drop rate of 14 percent during the 2014 season. Josh Norris mocks Perriman to the Browns at No. 19.
 

RamBill

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Stefon Diggs - WR -
Maryland WR Stefon Diggs has been dubbed "Playmaker's 2015 sleeper favorite."
Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score ranks Diggs as the No. 10 receiver, ahead of far more heralded prospects like Devin Funchess, Phillip Dorsett and Dorial Green-Beckham. The model apparently gave Diggs much credit for his huge freshman campaign -- when he caught 54 passes for 848 yards and six touchdowns while also rushing for 114 yards on 20 attempts -- while Maryland attempted only 304 passes due to playing three freshman quarterbacks. "He is regarded as only a mid- to late-round prospect by conventional wisdom because his sophomore and junior years were marred by injury and inconsistency," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "It's true that these injury concerns could return to haunt Diggs' professional career, but at a low price, the upside that Diggs teased as a freshman is well worth the gamble." Playmaker compares the former five-star recruit to Antonio Brown and Az-Zahir Hakim.

Sammie Coates - WR - Tigers
Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score grades Auburn WR Sammie Coates as the No. 4 receiver.
"When Coates was a sophomore, 2.5 percent of Auburn's pass attempts were touchdown passes to Coates," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "Similarly, he dominated his team's passing attack as a junior, gaining 3.16 yards per team attempt. He also averaged a superb 21.4 yards per catch and is entering the draft as an underclassman. However, while Coates' rate stats were good, his total stats were not that impressive, with only 741 receiving yards and four touchdowns as a junior." The system offered a pair of interesting historical comparisons in Demaryius Thomas and Stephen Hill. "Coates' numbers may simply be a function of an offense where a few deep passes to Coates served as a change of pace, rather than a true reflection of Coates' ability as a receiver," Forster wrote. "In that regard, Coates is hauntingly similar to a huge bust that Playmaker Score loved: Stephen Hill. Coates' scouting report is similar."

Devin Smith - WR
Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score grades Ohio State WR Devin Smith as the No. 6 receiver.
"Smith had only 33 receptions as a junior. However, when he caught the ball, he made big plays, averaging 20.7 yards per reception and scoring a touchdown on more than a third of his passes," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. The Playmaker model compared Smith as a prospect to Mike Wallace and Javon Walker. Scouts Inc. ranks Smith as the No. 25 overall prospect in the class. The 6-foot, 200-pound vertical threat runs a 4.4 forty.

Jaelen Strong - WR
Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong grades as the No. 5 receiver in the class, in the estimation of Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score.
The organization uses the system to project wide receivers to the next level. "Strong, 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds, had a nice performance at the scouting combine, running a 4.44 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump, but that helps his projection only a little," wrote FO's Nathan Forster. "His college production was good, but not great, given that the Sun Devils passed the ball a healthy 467 times." The system offered Michael Crabtree and Chris Chambers as similar historical prospects.