Football Outsiders Adjusted Interceptions

[jrry32]

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/adjusted-interceptions-2012" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... tions-2012</a>

Sam is near the top of the list in Adjusted Int%. It's interesting looking at all the data. According to this, on top of Luck's 18 ints, he had 14 more that were dropped.

 

[Stranger]

excellent find. thx for posting. result are certainly interesting... Kolb and Gabbert are certainly surprises at the top of the list.

 

[jap]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/adjusted-interceptions-2012

Sam is near the top of the list in Adjusted Int%. It's interesting looking at all the data. According to this, on top of Luck's 18 ints, he had 14 more that were dropped.

All this with average protection at best Sam received last season. Imagine what his numbers could be like with a monster line, Sam's sheer accuracy, natural intelligence, and with real weapons at receiver spots?

 

[bluecoconuts]

excellent find. thx for posting. result are certainly interesting... Kolb and Gabbert are certainly surprises at the top of the list.

Yeah it is. Good signs for Bradford though, the last two years he was one of the last QB's to throw a pick as well if I remember correctly.

 

[CGI_Ram]

All this with average protection at best Sam received last season. Imagine what his numbers could be like with a monster line, Sam's sheer accuracy, natural intelligence, and with real weapons at receiver spots?

Yep.

With all the critique of Bradford... and some IS valid... One thing is for sure - he's smart with the ball. Rarely does he throw a bonehead interception.

That tells me the game is not moving faster than his brain can process.

Give him some open targets (playmakers) and he'll hit them.

 

[Faceplant]

excellent find. thx for posting. result are certainly interesting... Kolb and Gabbert are certainly surprises at the top of the list.

Yes, but Sam threw 3 times as many passes as Kolb, and twice as many as Gabbert. Look at SB's adjusted #'s compared to Rogers for example. Food for thought.

 

[-X-]

Zero dropped picks in 544 attempts? Yeah, that Bradford is really reckless with the football. :roll: I remember two of them very well, but now I'm going to have to go back and look at all of them. Perhaps I'll video it if anyone cares.

 

[biggame1190]

Cool find. Thats my boy...Didn't need this list to know this though. Watching on Sundays and comparing to other QBs it was evident with Sam's accuracy and smart decision making (when NOT to throw, and throw aways) that he would have a solid percentage.

 

[Username]

Zero dropped picks in 544 attempts? Yeah, that Bradford is really reckless with the football. :roll: I remember two of them very well, but now I'm going to have to go back and look at all of them. Perhaps I'll video it if anyone cares.

Off the top of my head I can remember 2 jump balls to Quick that got picked. The first one we were losing like 45 to 7 to the Patriots too, and Sam was just trying to get him a ball. The second he got crushed and Patrick Peterson made a great play on it.

 

[Ramhusker]

Then one could make the argument that Sam was being over cautious and does not have the picks because his confidence wasn't strong enough to try and fit in more tough throws. It's really hard to tell from the couch I was sitting on! :sly:

 

[jrry32]

Zero dropped picks in 544 attempts? Yeah, that Bradford is really reckless with the football. :roll: I remember two of them very well, but now I'm going to have to go back and look at all of them. Perhaps I'll video it if anyone cares.

Yea, I did too. I remember Manny Lawson getting his hands on a couple but I don't think they counted those because he had to get way up there in the air. However, on pure recall so I could be wrong, I thought that he had a dropped int on that last drive against Buffalo...maybe Scott or Wilson(one of their safeties).

 

[jrry32]

Then one could make the argument that Sam was being over cautious and does not have the picks because his confidence wasn't strong enough to try and fit in more tough throws. It's really hard to tell from the couch I was sitting on! :sly:

Lol.

Yea. I remember that. I did criticize Sam for that at the start of 2012 but he really improved on that as the season went by. I was laughing in some of the gameday threads because the people that chastised him every week for being "too cautious" were always the first to jump on him for the interceptions that came on plays where he tried to squeeze it in a tight window or took a shot down the field.

It always amazed me how someone could say on Wednesday that Sam needs to try and squeeze the ball into tight windows or take more shots down the field even if the WR isn't open then scoff at me when I tell them that if you squeeze it in, it might get picked or the WR may fail to go up and get the ball and it will get picked if you try those throws. Then come Sunday, our QB does exactly what they're begging for and the one time it gets picked, they go off on how he's terrible and should be benched.

Can't win with some people. :lol:
(BTW, I'm not accusing you Husker, I can tell your post was tongue in cheek)

 

[Ramhusker]

Then one could make the argument that Sam was being over cautious and does not have the picks because his confidence wasn't strong enough to try and fit in more tough throws. It's really hard to tell from the couch I was sitting on! :sly:

Lol.

Yea. I remember that. I did criticize Sam for that at the start of 2012 but he really improved on that as the season went by. I was laughing in some of the gameday threads because the people that chastised him every week for being "too cautious" were always the first to jump on him for the interceptions that came on plays where he tried to squeeze it in a tight window or took a shot down the field.

It always amazed me how someone could say on Wednesday that Sam needs to try and squeeze the ball into tight windows or take more shots down the field even if the WR isn't open then scoff at me when I tell them that if you squeeze it in, it might get picked or the WR may fail to go up and get the ball and it will get picked if you try those throws. Then come Sunday, our QB does exactly what they're begging for and the one time it gets picked, they go off on how he's terrible and should be benched.

Can't win with some people. :lol:
(BTW, I'm not accusing you Husker, I can tell your post was tongue in cheek)

Yeah man, Sam can't win. He must win 3 Super Bowls in a row to prove himself. Tongue in cheek as it is, I get the feeling that Sam has been told more often than not that he shouldn't try and put the team on his shoulders and just manage the game, be smart, and just not make the mistakes to lose the game. (Joe Flacco-ish) I'm thinking this season may be a little different. Maybe the "cat out of the bag" time. :dancin: :dancin: :dancin:

 

[jrry32]

Since it has already come up on another site, I'm sure it will be mentioned somewhere(maybe not here but somewhere) that Bradford only is so good at avoiding ints because he checks down a lot and doesn't take chances. I'd like to put out that fire before it starts.

The post I made on the other board in response to that argument:

If we were back in 2010, you could make that case against Bradford. Then again, much of that was the system being run.

Bradford's low TD% has much more to do with the pitiful supporting cast than him being gun shy.

In fact, his 11.3 yards per completion rank better than Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton.

I'd also like to point out that 10% of Bradford's attempts were on passes over 20 yards. Tom Brady is nearly identical in that stat at 9.9%. Peyton Manning is slightly better at 10.3%. Aaron Rodgers is worse at 8.7%. And Robert Griffin is worse at 8.4%.

I don't see many people claiming those guys only avoided turnovers because they check down too much and are gun shy.

But hey, it's hard to shake a reputation when you get one.

 

[RamFan503]

Zero dropped picks in 544 attempts? Yeah, that Bradford is really reckless with the football. :roll: I remember two of them very well, but now I'm going to have to go back and look at all of them. Perhaps I'll video it if anyone cares.

Yea, I did too. I remember Manny Lawson getting his hands on a couple but I don't think they counted those because he had to get way up there in the air. However, on pure recall so I could be wrong, I thought that he had a dropped int on that last drive against Buffalo...maybe Scott or Wilson(one of their safeties).

I thought the announcers said the same guy dropped two in that game.