Ezekiel Elliott, LeGarrette Blount and the 300-carry concern

  • To unlock all of features of Rams On Demand please take a brief moment to register. Registering is not only quick and easy, it also allows you access to additional features such as live chat, private messaging, and a host of other apps exclusive to Rams On Demand.

CGI_Ram

Hamburger Connoisseur
Moderator
Joined
Jun 28, 2010
Messages
48,081
Name
Burger man
http://www.espn.com/blog/philadelph...t-legarrette-blount-and-the-300-carry-concern

Ezekiel Elliott, LeGarrette Blount and the 300-carry concern

Unless you're Beast Mode, the 300-carry hangover is mighty hard to avoid.

Perhaps that's one reason 300-carry backs are becoming more scarce. According to ESPN Stats & Information, an average of 8.5 players per season reached that marker between 2001-10. That number has dropped to an average of two a season in the six years since, as many teams have moved to more of a running-back-by-committee approach.

In 2016, only one running back -- the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott (322) -- carried that kind of load, while new Philadelphia Eagles running back LeGarrette Blount finished one attempt shy with 299 last season for the New England Patriots. He can be considered an honorary member of the club, with the Tennessee Titans' DeMarco Murray (293) and the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson (293) not far behind.

10FC7D87-8A60-4167-9782-F0A57979E7ED_zps5rkerpbz.jpg


The odds are strongly on the side of a statistical drop-off in the year after a 300-plus carry campaign. In many cases, it is drastic. Consider: In the past five years, only one player -- Marshawn Lynch -- did not experience a decline in production. The other nine over that span saw their output sink by an averageof 739 rushing yards the next season. Four missed significant time with injury, but even those who stayed healthy had a sharp downturn.

Elliott has youth and a top-shelf offensive line on his side to combat the trend. At 21 years old, the odometer reading is still relatively low even if he did carry the ball a total of 559 times over his last two seasons at Ohio State. A bigger question might be whether he'll be available for all 16 games as the league continues to look into his off-field behavior.

Blount, on the flip side, is 30 years old and entering his eighth NFL season. Establishing himself as the workhorse back during Tom Brady's four-game suspension to start last season, he finished with a career high in carries, yards (1,161) and rushing touchdowns (18).

"Just the number of opportunities," Blount said, explaining why he experienced such a spike in production. "Obviously, Tom missing four games played a part in the opportunities that I had. Just taking advantage of all of them."

The Eagles signed him to a one-year, $1.25 million contract in free agency with the hopes that he can be a workhorse back for them.

It's possible that Blount, like Elliott, delivers. But the evidence is hard to ignore: Of the 19 times a player has hit the 300-carry mark since 2010, a statistical dip was avoided twice the next season.
 

Elmgrovegnome

Legend
Joined
Jan 23, 2013
Messages
21,605
I am sure youth has more to do with it than anything. Young guys heal faster. Have more energy, and aren't already beat up.
 

LesBaker

Mr. Savant
Joined
Aug 23, 2012
Messages
17,460
Name
Les
It's a real thing and it's been talked about before. You can't deny that the wear and tear in a short time frame is going to take a toll.

I'm OK with the RB by committee unless you have a Faulk on the roster who can lighten some of the punishment by having a bunch of his touches come through the passing game. Obviously a guy like that you want on the field for every snap.

This is another reason why you don't pay RB's huge money. There are exceptions but overall they have too short of a shelf life and you can find good ones for not a lot of money. So unless your offense is based on a heavy run game like SEA was/is then it doesn't make sense.
 

Angry Ram

Captain RAmerica Original Rammer
Joined
Jul 1, 2010
Messages
17,846
Too much over analyzing here, cherry-picking at its finest.

Most of these guys have had multiple 1000+ yard seasons with at least 10+ TDs.

Plus, there are a variety of other factors (as always). LeSean McCoy was in a new system in Buffalo. DeMarco Murray was in the wrong system in Philly. Adrian Peterson got hurt.

To say there's a linear correlation b/w carries and production is pretty dumb (obviously directed to the article, not CGI). And this whole premise of the article is negated when LeSean McCoy had two straight 300 carry seasons and well over 1000 yards.
 

DaveFan'51

Old-Timer
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Apr 18, 2014
Messages
18,666
Name
Dave
http://www.espn.com/blog/philadelph...t-legarrette-blount-and-the-300-carry-concern

Ezekiel Elliott, LeGarrette Blount and the 300-carry concern

Unless you're Beast Mode, the 300-carry hangover is mighty hard to avoid.

Perhaps that's one reason 300-carry backs are becoming more scarce. According to ESPN Stats & Information, an average of 8.5 players per season reached that marker between 2001-10. That number has dropped to an average of two a season in the six years since, as many teams have moved to more of a running-back-by-committee approach.

In 2016, only one running back -- the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott (322) -- carried that kind of load, while new Philadelphia Eagles running back LeGarrette Blount finished one attempt shy with 299 last season for the New England Patriots. He can be considered an honorary member of the club, with the Tennessee Titans' DeMarco Murray (293) and the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson (293) not far behind.

10FC7D87-8A60-4167-9782-F0A57979E7ED_zps5rkerpbz.jpg


The odds are strongly on the side of a statistical drop-off in the year after a 300-plus carry campaign. In many cases, it is drastic. Consider: In the past five years, only one player -- Marshawn Lynch -- did not experience a decline in production. The other nine over that span saw their output sink by an averageof 739 rushing yards the next season. Four missed significant time with injury, but even those who stayed healthy had a sharp downturn.

Elliott has youth and a top-shelf offensive line on his side to combat the trend. At 21 years old, the odometer reading is still relatively low even if he did carry the ball a total of 559 times over his last two seasons at Ohio State. A bigger question might be whether he'll be available for all 16 games as the league continues to look into his off-field behavior.

Blount, on the flip side, is 30 years old and entering his eighth NFL season. Establishing himself as the workhorse back during Tom Brady's four-game suspension to start last season, he finished with a career high in carries, yards (1,161) and rushing touchdowns (18).

"Just the number of opportunities," Blount said, explaining why he experienced such a spike in production. "Obviously, Tom missing four games played a part in the opportunities that I had. Just taking advantage of all of them."

The Eagles signed him to a one-year, $1.25 million contract in free agency with the hopes that he can be a workhorse back for them.

It's possible that Blount, like Elliott, delivers. But the evidence is hard to ignore: Of the 19 times a player has hit the 300-carry mark since 2010, a statistical dip was avoided twice the next season.
Just to draw a little comparison, Marshall went over 320 carries his last year with Indy, and never did that again!
BUT! His next three years with the Rams He averaged 250+ carries for over 12oo yards per! and that's not counting averaging 80+ receptions each of those years too!!:D