"Expert" Consensus NFL Rookie Award Predictions

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2442419-expert-consensus-nfl-rookie-award-predictions

Expert Consensus NFL Rookie Award Predictions
By Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst May 7, 2015

Prognostication is defined as "the act of forecasting or predicting (something future) from present indications or signs."

Well, once this year's incoming crop of rookies were drafted, it didn't take long before the forecasting began regarding their NFLfutures.

Will Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers be 2015's best first-year quarterback, or will that honor belong to Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans?

What about the running backs? Will Todd Gurley of the St. Louis Rams, who ended the first-round drought for ball-carriers this year, be the top dog? Or will it be Melvin Gordon of the San Diego Chargers?

Will Amari Cooper of the Oakland Raiders or Kevin White of the Chicago Bears shine as 2015's top rookie receiver. Which young pass-rusher will make the biggest impact in their first year?

Here at Bleacher Report, we want a piece of the action too. The National Lead Writers and NFL Analysts here at B/R have fired up the tarot leaves and tea decks (or something to that effect) to make their predictions for this year's newest stars.

Here's what they had to say.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Winner: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (8 votes)

Todd Gurley may have been the first running back selected (by the St. Louis Rams at No. 10 overall) in the 2015 NFL draft, but he wasn't the only ball-carrier taken in the first round.

Five picks later, he was joined by Melvin Gordon, who the San Diego Chargers drafted at No. 15.

The pick was met with the approval of CBS Sports' Rob Rang:

Perhaps one of the reasons why there had been so much speculation that Philip Rivers might be traded was the fact the Chargers didn't seem to have a plan in place at running back to protect him. With the aggressive move up to nab Melvin Gordon, however, San Diego now boasts a dynamic rusher with underrated receiving and pass-blocking ability to keep the Chargers' offense humming.

After two straight years of no running backs going in the first round, some questioned the wisdom of burning a top-15 pick on any running back. However, general manager Tom Telesco told Nick Canepa of U-T San Diego that he isn't buying what those critics are selling:

I don’t buy into any of that. The really, really talented ones are going to get drafted high. A top back is going to touch the ball 15 to 20 times a game, at least, a top receiver maybe eight or nine. You’ve got to have one.

And I’ve always prescribed to the theory that you’ve got to have more than one of them. Melvin gives us that dynamic -- he can make the big play (which Mathews, whose longest run from scrimmage was 51 yards, his second-longest 39, could not). We’ve been a long-drive offense.


Apparently neither are our voters. After gaining 2,587 yards (yes, you read that right) at Wisconsin in 2014, Gordon will slot in as the Day 1 starter for the Bolts.

That opportunity—plus Gordon's not inconsiderable talents—give the 6'1", 215-pounder the inside track on Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, according to our writers.

Others receiving votes: Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears (2 votes); Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (1 vote); Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Winner: Vic Beasley, DE, Atlanta Falcons (8 votes)

The quarterbacks may have hogged the headlines, but beginning with Jacksonville at No. 3, the defense began getting its due in the 2015 draft.

In all, three defenders were selected among the top 10 picks, and it's the last of those three picks that caught the eye of our panel.

With the No. 8 overall selection, the Falcons chose Clemson edge-rusher Vic Beasley. Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey hailed the pick, calling the 6'3", 246-pounder a "perfect fit" for new head coach Dan Quinn's defense:

Vic Beasley was the best pass-rusher available in 2015 draft. The Clemson defensive end was an easy selection for the Falcons when they were on the clock at No. 8 overall, as he is the perfect fit for Quinn's system. …

Quinn is expected to run the same scheme that the Seattle Seahawks have run under Pete Carroll. In that defense, there is a "Leo" position that pushes one defensive end wide of the offensive tackle. The Leo must be an outstanding pass-rusher to take advantage of his positioning, while the rest of the defense aligns to ease the pressure on him to perform against the run.

Fahey was spot on. The "Leo" spot shares as much in common with a 3-4 outside linebacker as it does a traditional 4-3 defensive end. Speed and athleticism trump strength and size.

And with Beasley in line for a significant snap count from the get-go, he's our pick to bring home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2015.

Others receiving votes: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes); Landon Collins, SS, New York Giants (1 vote); Denzel Perryman, ILB, San Diego Chargers (1 vote); Eric Kendricks, ILB, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Most Passing Yards
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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11 votes)

This is a two-horse race between the top two picks in the 2015 NFL draft. Both Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans will almost certainly start for their respective teams out of the gate.

Given his off-field transgressions while in Tallahassee, plenty of folks have questioned the wisdom of making Winston the No. 1 overall pick and face of the franchise.

Winston told Peter King of The MMQB that he's aware of the doubters, as well the fact that the only way to prove them wrong is with his play on the field:

I had to grow the last couple of years, because of what I’ve done, because of what I have brought on myself. It’s all a part of growing up. I can’t change people’s opinions of me. I just gotta keep getting better every day, as a player and as a man.

The only thing I can do … It’s not words. It’s actions. It’s by my actions.


However, while there may be questions about Winston's maturity level, some things aren't in question.

There's no doubt Winston is more NFL-ready than Mariota, who lined up almost exclusively in the shotgun in Oregon's spread attack.

There's no questioning that in wide receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Winston will have more proven weapons at his disposal in the passing game than Mariota.

And there's no denying that there's very little doubt in the eyes of our voters that Winston will lead all rookie quarterbacks in passing yards this season.

Others receiving votes: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (2 votes)

Most Rushing Yards
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Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (10 votes)

Last year, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon gained a staggering 2,587 yards on the ground. In the history of college football, only one tailback (Barry Sanders in 1988) has gained more.

Well, now Gordon is headed West to ply his trade with the San Diego Chargers, and Mike Mayock of NFL Network believes Gordon changes the entire complexion of the San Diego offense:

I really like this kid. He lights up the room. He has special talent and ability. He catches the football well out of the backfield. When you watch him run in tight areas, that is what differentiates him. Gordon changes the whole balance of the Chargers' offense now. Philip Rivers will get better also.

Chargers general manager Tom Telesco agrees, telling ESPN.com's Eric Williams that Gordon's ability to make an immediate impact is one of the reasons the team traded up to acquire him:

It was a need for us to get an impact player -- a guy who could break games open. We don’t have it, but now we have one. And we’re excited to get him. …

Picking at No. 17, we had about 15 players we felt really good about at that pick. I’d say about seven of those 15 we felt were impact players. He was one of those seven, and we just had to get him.


Talented though he may be, Gordon's skill with a football in his hands isn't the only reason he's our experts' pick as the first-year running back who will make the most hay in 2015.

In St. Louis, Todd Gurley will split carries with Tre Mason. Ditto for Detroit's Ameer Abdullah, who will share work with Joique Bell.

The only thing standing between Gordon and a heavy workload is Branden Oliver, who averaged all of 3.6 yards per carry in 2014.

Giddyup, Melvin.

Others receiving votes: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (2 votes); Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)
Most Receiving Yards
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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Winner: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (7 votes)

It's been a while since the Oakland Raiders had a 1,000-yard wide receiver. Quite a while—2005, to be precise.

The Raiders are hopeful that streak will be ending soon, compliments of the No. 4 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

Amari Cooper certainly didn't have any issues with hitting that benchmark at the University of Alabama. Over his three-year collegiate career, Cooper averaged well over 1,000 yards a season. He shattered the mark in 2014, reeling in 124 passes for 1,727 yards.

Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie told Michael Casagrande of AL.com that it didn't take long for the team to decide Cooper was Oakland's man:

We looked at all the film we needed to see. We liked him as soon as we saw him on tape. …

You don't hear any negatives about this guy. There's no wonder he's a good as he is. The intangibles outside of his skill set are extremely high.


That confidence isn't just talk either. According to Conor Orr of NFL.com, the Raiders are preparing to release veteran wideout James Jones, who led the Raiders in receptions and yardage last season.

Jones also led the Raiders with 112 targets, and while free-agent acquisition Michael Crabtree will get some of those looks, Cooper looks to have the clearest route to leading all rookie receivers in that category.

And you can't rack up yardage unless the rock is thrown in your direction.

Others receiving votes: Kevin White, Chicago Bears (3 votes); DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (2 votes); Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans (1 vote)

Most Sacks
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John Bazemore/Associated Press

Winner: Vic Beasley, DE, Atlanta Falcons (8 votes)

As Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com reports, the pass rush has been an issue for the Atlanta Falcons for some time:

The Falcons invested the eighth pick in Beasley realizing the pass rush is their biggest deficiency. Getting 10 or more sacks from him in 2015 would only verify why they targeted him all along for draft night.

Heck, six or seven sacks from Beasley would be quite an accomplishment considering the Falcons pass-rush woes in recent years. Over the last five seasons, the Falcons have ranked 25th or lower out of 32 teams in sacks per pass play. In four of the last five seasons, they've allowed opponents to convert better than 40 percent of third-down opportunities. The Falcons ranked dead last in third-down defense the last two seasons. And their 83 sacks over the last three seasons are the fewest in the NFL.

Enter Beasley, who piled up 25 sacks and 44.5 tackles for loss over his last two years at Clemson. According to D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Beasley will play the "Leo" weak-side end role for the Falcons.

As the team's website reported, Beasley told reporters he's aware that being a top-10 pick brings with it high-end pressure: "I think the biggest transition for me from college to the NFL will be just playing lights out on every play and not taking any plays off. I think that's my biggest weakness right now, and I plan to change that as I transition my game."

The writers here at Bleacher Report apparently don't think that transition will be a difficult one, tabbing Beasley to lead all rookies in sacks this year.

Others receiving votes: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (4 votes); Za'Darius Smith, OLB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

Most Tackles
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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Winner: Eric Kendricks, ILB, Minnesota Vikings (11 votes)

They might not get the run that edge-rushers do in the NFL draft, but inside linebackers were a high priority for many teams entering the event this year.

One of those teams was the Minnesota Vikings, who made UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks the 45th overall pick.

Minnesota general manager Rick Spielman told Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that it was an easy call.

"We felt he was the most instinctive linebacker in this draft," Spielman said. "He’s very good in coverage. He’s very instinctive against the run. He plays very heavy-handed to shed and get off blocks and really locate the ball. He has great range sideline to sideline."

Kendricks, who posted an FBS-leading 101 solo stops en route to winning the Butkus Award as college football's top linebacker, is eager to get to work.

"I think I’m ready immediately; definitely immediately," he told Craig. "I’m going to work for that. I’m not going to say I will because I have to work for that. But I’m going to prepare like I’m the starter and I’m going to prepare like I’m going to the Super Bowl."

Given the lack of talent outside of Anthony Barr at linebacker for the Vikings, it's a relatively safe bet that Kendricks will start in Week 1, either in the middle of Mike Zimmer's 4-3 front or on the weak side.

And that opportunity, coupled with Kendricks' history of robust production, was enough to make the 6'0", 232-pounder an easy call as the leading tackler among first-year pros in 2015.

Others receiving votes: Stephone Anthony, ILB, New Orleans Saints (1 vote); Shaq Thompson, OLB, Carolina Panthers (1 vote)

Most Interceptions
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Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Winner: Marcus Peters, CB, Kansas City Chiefs (5 votes)

At his introductory press conference with the Kansas City Chiefs, cornerback Marcus Peters told reporters that he realizes he has a lot to prove at the NFL level, via BJ Kissel of the team's website:

It's going to be amazing. That's the best opportunity that any rookie can have going into a room like that with a group of excellent coaches. To be coached by a Hall of Famer (Chiefs DB coach Emmitt Thomas), there aren't too many who can say they had that their rookie year.

I'm just going to embrace all opportunities, listen and learn to be a great NFL player. Hopefully, someday I can be an All-Pro and a Hall of Famer.


That's pretty big talk coming from a player who was kicked off the team at Washington last November after reportedly clashing with coaches.

Still, from a talent standpoint, it isn't hard to see why the Chiefs made the 6'0", 197-pound Peters the No. 18 overall pick in the 2014 draft.

As Kissel points out, over the last two seasons with the Huskies, Peters allowed less than 40 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed. Peters picked off eight passes over that span.

Physically, he's everything you could ask for in a "shutdown" corner prospect. It's why the Chiefs were willing to roll the dice that Peters has learned from past mistakes and now has his head on straight.

Our voters are rolling those dice as well, tabbing Peters as the rookie who will make the most interceptions in 2015.

Others receiving votes: Kevin Johnson, CB, Houston Texans (3 votes); Byron Jones, CB, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes); Damarious Randall, FS, Green Bay Packers (2 votes); Landon Collins, SS, New York Giants (1 vote)

Biggest Flop
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Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

"Winner:" Ereck Flowers, OL, New York Giants (5 votes)

The offensive line was an obvious area of need for the New York Giants entering the 2015 draft, and after addressing that need by making Miami offensive tackle Ereck Flowers the No. 9 overall pick, New York general manager Jerry Reese talked up the team's latest addition while speaking with Jordan Raanan of NJ.com:

"We're always cognizant of what our need is as well and we think this is a good need and a value pick for us," Reese said. "We think this can help solidify the offensive line, so hopefully this will settle the offensive line down and we don't have to keep talking about the offensive line as much."

Raanan's on board with the pick:

Manchild, physical, nasty, aircraft carrier, battleship, gym rat, outstanding feet, young, strong and tough were some words used to describe Flowers. His presence leaves no more excuses for the offensive line. The Giants have drafted tackle/guard Justin Pugh, center Weston Richburg and now Flowers with high picks in three consecutive drafts. They spent big money on guard Geoff Schwartz as a free agent and to retain left tackle Will Beatty. There is talent there, especially after the Flowers selection. It is no longer a position of need.

However, Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated wasn't smelling the Flowers (Yeah, that was a bad one. Any more of that and I'll land in the punitentiary.), calling the selection one of the biggest reaches of the draft's first day:

General manager Jerry Reese, head coach Tom Coughlin and VP of player evaluation Marc Ross all believed that Flowers was the best available player with that ninth pick. And each of those fine gentlemen know far more about football than I do ... but I had seven offensive tackles ranked ahead of Flowers this year. At 6'6" and 329 pounds, Flowers is the very model of a tough, nasty run-blocker, but he's got a lot to work on in pass-protection. He's not particularly agile, and his footwork is a work in progress.

It appears that the scribes here at Bleacher Report are with Farrar, as five (including this writer) saddled Flowers with the ignominious honor of being tabbed as this year's biggest rookie flop.

Others receiving votes: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts (3 votes); Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes); Shane Ray, OLB, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

Rookie of the Year
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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 votes)

So far in this slideshow, we've touched on predictions for the 2015 season's top offensive and defensive rookies, the leaders in any number of statistical categories, and the biggest rookie flop of 2015.

But if there was only one Rookie of the Year Award, who would win it this season?

Why, the same position that always hogs the hardware in the NFL—quarterback.

As Peter King of the MMQB wrote, when Jameis Winston arrived in Tampa to join the Buccaneers, he did so with more than a bit of fanfare:

On Friday, when Winston and his family stepped off a plane from their home in Alabama, the entire Bucs staff was in the lobby to give Winston an ovation. There might be some hate in the community and the wider world, but not here. Not today. Livelihoods are at stake, and the new quarterback can save jobs if he plays like he often did up the road at Florida State.

Yes, Winston is no sure bet for NFL success. Quarterbacks whose name doesn't rhyme with "truck" usually aren't.

Yes, Winston's off-field issues at Florida State are cause for more than a little concern.

And yes, the Buccaneers were a terrible football team in 2014.

However, the talent's there. So are the weapons in the passing game. If Winston can stay out of trouble and maximize both those things (or even come reasonably close), he'll be a shoo-in for ROY honors by the time we hit December.

Others receiving votes: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (2 votes); Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (2 votes); Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans (2 votes); Vic Beasley, DE, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote); Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

 

PressureD41

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This season might be the only season Gordon "might" out produce TG30 is his career. Really hope we save TG30 until Dec. that would be 13 months removed from surgery. But I bet he's the main guy late Sept sadly..
 

Ramrasta

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Based solely on next season then Gordon is the best but I doubt it stays that way over the next few years.
 

yrba1

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Not really concerned about individual heroics, as long as Gurley does what he's supposed to do and it leads to a playoff spot, I couldn't careless how Gordon plays out.