https://www.si.com/nfl-expert-game-picks-peter-king-sports-illustrated-mmqb-staff
Picking the games for straight-up winners this season . . .
Andrew Brandt, Business of Football Columnist
Jonathan Jones, Staff Writer
Peter King, Editor-In-Chief
Bette Marston, Senior Producer
Mark Mravic, Executive Editor
Jenny Vrentas, Senior Writer
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-week-13-spread-picks
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (OVER/UNDER 45)
Pick: Rams 23 – 17 (the under hits)
Point (EE): While the Rams have an explosive offense, five of their last seven games have gone under 45 points (their first four games all went over this total). Some of these totals have been in blowout wins for them (i.e. their 33-0 win against the Cardinals in London), while other games (like their game a week ago against an explosive Saints team) simply played out as a slow, lower-scoring game (until the Saints scored a late touchdown to push it to 46).
The Cardinals offense is the second-worst unit in our offensive rating system, while their defense has only one starter with a PFF player grade below 72.9 through 12 weeks. With the Eagles, Seahawks and Titans coming up on their schedule, this might be a tough spot for the Rams, which could lead to the tight, low-scoring game that would be conducive to the under here.
Counterpoint (GC): Last week we saw the opening act of
‘David’ Blaine Gabbert (the “t” is silent), he put up a 105.6 passer rating on throws 10-plus yards downfield against a Jaguars defense that had allowed a league best 32.2 rating on such throws entering the game and he did so with a moustache that cannot be described accurately by my limited vocabulary.
Seems a little foolish to bet against a guy with that type of magical power and this week he gets a Rams defense that ranks fifth in the NFL allowing a passer rating of just 68.0 on throws 10-plus yards past the line of scrimmage. With Blaine pulling touchdowns out of hats on one side, the vulnerability shifts to
Jared Goff and the Rams potent play action attack –
Goff is
averaging 10.9 yards per play action pass (second) while having those play action targets contested at the second-lowest rate in the league (this is where you remember that Sean McVay was 12 when you graduated college and is more mature than you and all your friends combined).
The Cardinals defense has been susceptible to the play-action pass this season, giving up the third-highest completion rate off the play fake. Take the under, then go for a four-hour walk.
